Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements

Most of the air quality modelling work has been so far oriented towards deterministic simulations of ambient pollutant concentrations. This traditional approach, which is based on the use of one selected model and one data set of discrete input values, does not reflect the uncertainties due to errors in model formulation and input data. Given the complexities of urban environments and the inherent limitations of mathematical modelling, it is unlikely that a single model based on routinely available meteorological and emission data will give satisfactory short-term predictions. In this study, different methods involving the use of more than one dispersion model, in association with different emission simulation methodologies and meteorological data sets, were explored for predicting best CO and benzene estimates, and related confidence bounds. The different approaches were tested using experimental data obtained during intensive monitoring campaigns in busy street canyons in Paris, France. Three relative simple dispersion models (STREET, OSPM and AEOLIUS) that are likely to be used for regulatory purposes were selected for this application. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to identify internal model parameters that might significantly affect results. Finally, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed.

Multicomponent gas-mixture measurements using an array of gas sensors and an artificial neural-network

An Electronic Nose is being jointly developed between the University of Greenwich and the Institute of Intelligent Machines to detect the gases given off from an oil filled transformer when it begins to break down. The gas sensors being used are very simple, consisting of a layer of Tin Oxide (SnO2) which is heated to approximately 640 K and the conductivity varies with the gas concentrations. Some of the shortcomings introduced by the commercial gas sensors available are being overcome by the use of an integrated array of gas sensors and the use of artificial neural networks which can be 'taught' to recognize when the gas contains several components. At present simulated results have achieved up to a 94% success rate of recognizing two component gases and future work will investigate alternative neural network configurations to maintain this success rate with practical measurements.

Solid phase velocity measurements utilising electrostatic sensors and cross correlation signal processing

Gas-solids two phase systems are widely employed within process plant in the form of pneumatic conveyors, dust extraction systems and solid fuel injection systems. The measurement of solids phase velocity therefore has wide potential application in flow monitoring and, in conjunction with density measurement instrumentation, solids mass flow rate measurement. Historically, a number of authors have detailed possible measurement techniques, and some have published limited test results. It is, however, apparent that none of these technologies have found wide application in industry. Solids phase velocity measurements were undertaken using real time cross correlation of signals from two electrostatic sensors spaced axially along a pipeline conveying pulverised coal (PF). Details of the measurement equipment, the pilot scale test rig and the test results are presented.

Buoyancy measurements and vertical distribution of eggs of sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)

Measurements were made of the density and settling velocity of eggs of sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), using a density-gradient column. These results were related to observed vertical distributions of eggs obtained from stratified vertical distribution sampling in the Bay of Biscay. Eggs of both species had slightly positive buoyancy in local seawater throughout most of their development until near hatching, when there was a marked increase in density and they became negatively buoyant. The settling velocity of anchovy eggs, which are shaped as prolate ellipsoids, was close to predictions for spherical particles of equivalent volume. An improved model was developed for prediction of the settling velocity of sardine eggs, which are spherical with a relatively large perivitelline volume; this incorporated permeability of the chorion and adjustment of the density of the perivitelline fluid to ambient seawater. Eggs of both species were located mostly in the top 20 m of the water column, in increasing abundance towards the surface. A sub-surface peak of egg abundance was sometimes observed at the pycnocline, particularly where this was pronounced and associated with a low-salinity surface layer. There was a progressive deepening of the depth distributions for successive stages of egg development. Results from this study can be applied for improved plankton sampling of sardine and anchovy eggs and in modelling studies of their vertical distribution.

Position and structure of the subtropical/Azores front region from combined Lagrangian and remote sensing (IR/altimeter/SeaWIFS) measurements

The position and structure of the North Atlantic Subtropical Front is studied using Lagrangian flow tracks and remote sensing (AVHRR imagery: TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry: SeaWiFS) in a broad region ( similar to 31 degree to similar to 36 degree N) of marked gradient of dynamic height (Azores Current) that extends from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), near similar to 40 degree W, to the Eastern Boundary ( similar to 10 degree W). Drogued Argos buoy and ALACE tracks are superposed on infrared satellite images in the Subtropical Front region. Cold (cyclonic) structures, called storms, and warm (anticyclonic) structures of 100-300 km in size can be found on the south side of the Subtropical Front outcrop, which has a temperature contrast of about 1 degree C that can be followed for similar to 2500 km near 35 degree N. Warmer water adjacent to the outcrop is flowing eastward (Azores Current) but some warm water is returned westward about 300 km to the south (southern Counterflow). Estimates of horizontal diffusion in a Storm (D=2.2t10 super(2) m super(2) s super(-1)) and in the Subtropical Front region near 200 m depth (D sub(x)=1.3t10 super(4) m super(2) s super(-1), D sub(y)=2.6t10 super(3) m super(2) s super(-1)) are made from the Lagrangian tracks. Altimeter and in situ measurements show that Storms track westwards. Storms are separated by about 510 km and move westward at 2.7 km d super(-1). Remote sensing reveals that some initial structures start evolving as far east as 23 degree W but are more organized near 29 degree W and therefore Storms are about 1 year old when they reach the MAR (having travelled a distance of 1000 km). Structure and seasonality in SeaWiFS data in the region is examined.