A study to adapt various sales forecasting methods for use by military club managers

The purpose of this study is to adapt and combine the following methods of sales forecasting: Classical Time-Series Decomposition, Operationally Based Data and Judgmental Forecasting for use by military club managers.

A Comprehensive Portfolio Construction Under Stochastic Environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, b) implement large-scale optimizations, and c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH).

Long-Term Reward Patterns Contribute to Personal Goals at Work Among Finnish Managers

The research addresses the impact of long-term reward patterns on contents of personal work goals among young Finnish managers (N = 747). Reward patterns were formed on the basis of perceived and objective career rewards (i.e., career stability and promotions) across four measurements (years 2006 –2012). Goals were measured in 2012 and classified into categories of competence, progression, well-being, job change, job security, organization, and financial goals. The factor mixture analysis identified a three-class solution as the best model of reward patterns: High rewards (77%); Increasing rewards (17%); and Reducing rewards (7%). Participants with Reducing rewards reported more progression, well-being, job change and financial goals than participants with High rewards as well as fewer competence and organizational goals than participants with Increasing rewards. Workplace resources can be in a key role in facilitating goals towards building competence and organizational performance.

Pure higher-order effects in the portfolio choice model

This paper examines the effects of higher-order risk attitudes and statistical moments on the optimal allocation of risky assets within the standard portfolio choice model. We derive the expressions for the optimal proportion of wealth invested in the risky asset to show they are functions of portfolio returns third- and fourth-order moments as well as on the investor’s risk preferences of prudence and temperance. We illustrate the relative importance that the introduction of those higher-order effects have in the decision of expected utility maximizers using data for the US.

Reputation performance: a portfolio selection approach

This paper introduces a normative view on corporate reputation strategic management. Reputation performance is conceptualised as the outcome of complex processes and social interactions and the lack of a holistic reputation performance management framework is identified. In an attempt to fill this gap, a portfolio-based approach is put forward. Drawing on the foundations of modern portfolio theory we create a portfolio-based reputation management algorithmic model where reputation components and priorities are weighted by decision makers and shape organisational change in an attempt to formulate a corporate reputation strategy. The rationale of this paper is based on the foundational consideration of organisations as choosing he optimal strategy by seeking to maximise their reputation performance while maintaining organisational stability and minimising organisational risk.

Reputation Performance: a portfolio selection approach

This paper introduces a normative view on corporate reputation management; an algorithmic model for reputation-driven strategic decision making is proposed and corporate reputation is conceptualized as influenced by a selection among organizational priorities. A portfolio-based approach is put forward; we draw on the foundations of portfolio theory and we create a portfolio-based reputation management model where reputation components and priorities are weighted by decision makers and shape organizational change in an attempt to formulate a corporate reputation strategy. The rationale of this paper is based on the foundational consideration of organizations as choosing the optimal strategy by seeking to maximize performance on corporate reputation capital while maintaining organizational stability and minimizing organizational risk.

Care home managers’ knowledge of palliative care: a Northern Irish study

Using AHP and the IPMA Competence Baseline in the project managers selection process

This paper proposes the joint use of the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the ICB (IPMA Competence Baseline), as a tool for the decision-making process of selecting the most suitable managers for projects. A hierarchical structure, comprising the IPMA’s ICB 3.0 contextual, behavioural and technical competence elements, is constructed for the selection of project managers. It also describes the AHP implementation, illustrating the whole process with an example using all the 46 ICB competence elements as model criteria. This tool can be of high interest to decision-makers because it allows comparing the candidates for managing a project using a systematic and rigorous process with a rich set of proven criteria.

Branding Hotels

[Excerpt] The hotel business has become a business of brands. Price Waterhouse Coopers estimates that there are over 300 hotel brands today with no one brand dominating the market. Every major brand management issue (brand extensions, global brand expansion, re-branding, un-branding, co-branding, brand portfolio development, brand acquisitions, new brand development, etc.) is being explored. An understanding of the competitive context and intra-and inter-brand dynamics will help owners, operators, asset managers, suppliers and litigators, as well as new entrants into the business make better and more informed brand management decisions.

Developing leadership in managers to facilitate the implementation of national guideline recommendations : a process evaluation of feasibility and usefulness

Background: Previous research supports the claim that managers are vital players in the implementation of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs), yet little is known about interventions aiming to develop managers’ leadership in facilitating implementation. In this pilot study, process evaluation was employed to study the feasibility and usefulness of a leadership intervention by exploring the intervention’s potential to support managers in the implementation of national guideline recommendations for stroke care in outpatient rehabilitation. Methods: Eleven senior and frontline managers from five outpatient stroke rehabilitation centers participated in a four-month leadership intervention that included workshops, seminars, and teleconferences. The focus was on developing knowledge and skills to enhance the implementation of CPG recommendations, with a particular focus on leadership behaviors. Each dyad of managers was assigned to develop a leadership plan with specific goals and leadership behaviors for implementing three rehabilitation recommendations. Feasibility and usefulness were explored through observations and interviews with the managers and staff members prior to the intervention, and then one month and one year after the intervention. Results: Managers considered the intervention beneficial, particularly the participation of both senior and frontline managers and the focus on leadership knowledge and skills for implementing CPG recommendations. All the managers developed a leadership plan, but only two units identified goals specific to implementing the three stroke rehabilitation recommendations. Of these, only one identified leadership behaviors that support implementation. Conclusion: Managers found that the intervention was delivered in a feasible way and appreciated the focus on leadership to facilitate implementation. However, the intervention appeared to have limited impact on managers’ behaviors or clinical practice at the units. Future interventions directed towards managers should have a stronger focus on developing leadership skills and behaviors to tailor implementation plans and support implementation of CPG recommendations.