Longitudinal analysis of tumor marker CEA of breast cancer patients from Braga's hospital

Allied to an epidemiological study of population of the Senology Unit of Braga’s Hospital that have been diagnosed with malignant breast cancer, we describe the progression in time of repeated measurements of tumor marker Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Our main purpose is to describe the progression of this tumor marker as a function of possible risk factors and, hence, to understand how these risk factors influences that progression. The response variable, values of CEA, was analyzed making use of longitudinal models, testing for different correlation structures. The same covariates used in a previous survival analysis were considered in the longitudinal model. The reference time used was time from diagnose until death from breast cancer. For diagnostic of the models fitted we have used empirical and theoretical variograms. To evaluate the fixed term of the longitudinal model we have tested for a changing point on the effect of time on the tumor marker progression. A longitudinal model was also fitted only to the subset of patients that died from breast cancer, using the reference time as time from date of death until blood test.

Risk factors for atherosclerosis in an elderly out patient population in the City of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: To analyze in out clinic elderly patients of both sexes for the prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerosis and study their association with the complications of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Five hundred and sixteen outpatients, 152 men and 364 women, 60 years or older, were studied. The prevalences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking and obesity were determined in both sexes and compared using the chi-square test. The association between these factors and the presence of atherosclerotic complications was analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: The comparative analysis of the factors in both sexes showed that hypertension, total cholesterol > or = 240mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, and body mass index >27.5 were more frequent among women, but HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and cigarette smoking were more frequent among men, and no difference occurred between sexes in relation to the frequency of triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL and diabetes mellitus. After adjustment of the variables in the regression model, we observed that in the total of elderly patients, risk factors for complications of atherosclerosis were: triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL, hypertension, and male sex. Among men, the risk factors were: LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, diabetes mellitus, HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and hypertension. Among women, the risk factors were: tryglicerides > or = 250mg/dL and hypertension. CONCLUSION: The results showed that, in the elderly, the risk factors for atherosclerosis persist, but with different behaviors between men and women. The study suggests that the relative importance of the risk factors can change with the aging process.

Physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, dietary content, and risk factors that cause a predisposition towards cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE: To analyze associations between levels of physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, dietary content, and risk factors that cause a predisposition towards cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Sixty-two individuals aged between 20 and 45 years were evaluated. Levels of physical activity were established by estimates of energy demand corresponding to everyday activity; indices for cardiorespiratory fitness were obtained from estimates of maximal oxygen consumption; information about dietary content was obtained from dietary records kept on seven consecutive days. To indicate risk factors that cause a predisposition towards cardiovascular disease, use was made of body mass indexes, waist-hip circumference relationships, levels of arterial pressure and of plasma lipid-lipoprotein concentration. To establish associations between the variables studied, multiple regression analysis was used. RESULTS: Physical activity levels and cardiorespiratory fitness levels were inversely correlated with the amount and distribution of body fat and arterial pressure. Taken together, the two variables were responsible for between 16% and 19% of the variation in arterial pressure. Total and saturated fat ingestion was associated with higher serum lipid levels. Both dietary components were responsible for between 49% and 61% of the variation in LDL-cholesterol. CONCLUSION: High ingestion of food rich in total and saturated fat and decreased levels of physical activity and of cardiorespiratory fitness are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, which supports previous data.

Parents' physical victimization in childhood and current risk of child maltreatment: the mediator role of psychosomatic symptoms

Objective: To test the potential mediation effect of psychosomatic symptoms on the relationship between parents' history of childhood physical victimization and current risk for child physical maltreatment. Methods: Data from the Portuguese National Representative Study of Psychosocial Context of Child Abuse and Neglect were used. Nine-hundred and twenty-four parents completed the Childhood History Questionnaire, the Psychosomatic Scale of the Brief Symptom Inventory, and the Child Abuse Potential Inventory. Results: Mediation analysis revealed that the total effect of the childhood physical victimization on child maltreatment risk was significant. The results showed that the direct effect from the parents' history of childhood physical victimization to their current maltreatment risk was still significant once parents' psychosomatic symptoms were added to the model, indicating that the increase in psychosomatic symptomatology mediated in part the increase of parents' current child maltreatment risk. Discussion: The mediation analysis showed parents' psychosomatic symptomatology as a causal pathway through which parents' childhood history of physical victimization exerts its effect on increased of child maltreatment risk. Somatization-related alterations in stress and emotional regulation are discussed as potential theoretical explanation of our findings. A cumulative risk perspective is also discussed in order to elucidate about the mechanisms that contribute for the intergenerational continuity of child physical maltreatment.

Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

Emotional and behavioral problems in preschoolers: risk factors and assessment Issues

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia Aplicada.

Risk factors for acute myocardial infarction during the postoperative period of myocardial revascularization

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for acute myocardial infarction during the postoperative period after myocardial revascularization. METHODS: This was a case-control study paired for sex, age, number, type of graft used, coronary endarterectomy, type of myocardial protection, and use of extracorporeal circulation. We assessed 178 patients (89 patients in each group) undergoing myocardial revascularization, and the following variables were considered: dyslipidemia, systemic hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial revascularization surgery, previous coronary angioplasty, and acute myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Baseline clinical characteristics did not differ in the groups, except for previous myocardial revascularization surgery, prevalent in the case group (34 patients vs. 12 patients; p = 0.0002). This was the only independent predictor of risk for acute myocardial infarction in the postoperative period, based on a multivariate logistic regression analysis (p=0.0001). Mortality and the time of hospital stay of the case group were significantly higher (19.1% vs. 1.1%; p<0.001 and 15.7 days vs. 10.6 days; p<0.05 respectively) than those of the control. CONCLUSION: Only previous myocardial revascularization was an independent predictor of acute myocardial infarction in the postoperative period, based on multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Coronary heart disease clinical manifestation and risk factors in Japanese immigrants and their descendents in the city of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether a difference exists in coronary heart disease clinical manifestations and the prevalence of risk factors between Japanese immigrants and their descendents in the city of São Paulo. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of coronary artery disease clinical manifestations and the prevalence of risk factors, comparing 128 Japanese immigrants (Japanese group) with 304 Japanese descendents (Nisei group). RESULTS: The initial manifestation of the disease was earlier in the Nisei group (mean = 53 years), a difference of 12 years when compared with that in the Japanese group (mean = 65 years) (P<0.001). Myocardial infarction was the first manifestation in both groups (P = 0.83). The following parameters were independently associated with early coronary events: smoking (OR = 2.25; 95% CI = 1.35-3.77; P<0.002); Nisei group (OR = 10.22; 95% CI = 5.64-18.5; P<0.001); and female sex (OR = 5.04; 95% CI = 2.66-9.52; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The clinical presentation of coronary heart disease in the Japanese and their descendents in the city of São Paulo was similar, but coronary heart disease onset occurred approximately 12 years earlier in the Nisei group than in the Japanese group.

Intrauterine ductus arteriosus constriction: analysis of a historic cohort of 20 cases

OBJECTIVE: To describe the relative incidence, presentation, and evolvement of fetuses with early ductus constriction. METHODS: Twenty fetal echocardiograms indicating ductus constriction were reviewed in a population of 7000 pregnants. RESULTS: The cases were divided into group A (related to maternal use of cyclooxygenase inhibitors [n=7] and group B (idiopathics [n=13]). Mean gestational age was 32.5±3.1 (27-38) weeks and maternal age was 28.2±8.5 (17-42) years. Mean systolic velocity in the ductus was 2.22±0.34 (1.66-2.81) m/s, diastolic velocity 0.79±0.28 (0.45-1.5) m/s, and pulsatility index 1.33±0.36 (0.52-1.83). Two cases of ductal occlusion were noted. In 65% of the cases, an increase occurred in the right cavities; in 90% of the cases, tricuspid or pulmonary regurgitation, or both, occurred, with functional pulmonary atresia in 1 case. Diastolic velocity was greater in group A (1.13±0.33) than in group B (0.68±0.15) (P=0.008). The other data were similar in the 2 groups. The evolvement was not favorable in 4 patients from group B, including 1 death and 2 cases of persistent pulmonary hypertension. CONCLUSION: The high incidence of idiopathic constriction of the ductus arteriosus suggests that its diagnosis is underestimated and that many cases of persistence of fetal circulation in newborns may be related to constriction of the ductus arteriosus not diagnosed during intrauterine life. Group B had a lower severity but a risk of an unfavorable evolvement, suggesting a distinct alteration.

An analysis of Directive IORP II

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais

Enfermedad de Chagas: epidemiología de vectores y estrategias educativas para la vigilancia entomológica en áreas de riesgo del norte de la provincia de Córdoba. Chagas disease: epidemiology of vectors and educational strategies for entomological surveillance in risk areas of northern province of Cordoba.

La Enfermedad de Chagas es considerada en términos sociales y económicos, una de las enfermedades parasíticas más importantes de América Latina. La transmisión vectorial de esta enfermedad ha sido interrumpida en gran parte de América Latina sin embargo, el control vectorial no ha podido lograr la sostenibilidad y la efectividad necesarias para interrumpir la transmisión vectorial en la región del Gran Chaco de Argentina, Bolivia y Paraguay. La permanencia de poblaciones residuales de triatominos en estructuras peridomiciliarias permite una rápida recuperación del vector, sugiriéndose que estas poblaciones serían la principal fuente de reinfestación de la vivienda humana. Este escenario plantea por lo tanto la necesidad de estudiar con más profundidad las poblaciones de triatominos presentes en los peridomicilios para comprender su dispersión, capacidad de domiciliación y así entender el posible peligro que pueden presentar para el hombre como especies vectoras de la enfermedad de Chagas. Dentro de la provincia de Córdoba existen áreas que por la presencia histórica de triatomineos, la notificación reciente de casos de Chagas vectorial y el registro de especies silvestres invadiendo los domicilios merecen un estudio más profundo. Es por ello que se propone realizar un relevamiento de las especies de triatomineos que habitan los domicilios y peridomicilios en estas zonas, calcular los índices de infección con Trypanosoma cruzi que presentan, caracterizar su perfil alimentario, los factores de riesgo que favorecen su refugio, su capacidad dispersiva y diferenciar fenotípicamente entre las poblaciones peridomésticas para comprender mejor el posible peligro que pueden presentar para el hombre como especies vectoras de la enfermedad de Chagas. Además, y de manera complementaria, se aplicarán estrategias educativas en el ámbito escolar que sirvan para la vigilancia entomológica y acciones preventivas de la Enfermedad de Chagas. La determinación del perfil alimentario pautará la potencialidad de cada vector, siendo esta información fundamental para el análisis de situaciones epidemiológicas de riesgo. La capacidad dispersiva y la diferenciación fenotípica de las poblaciones permitirán conocer el posible movimiento y flujo de triatominos desde y hacia la vivienda humana. La determinación de los factores que favorecen el refugio de triatominos permitirá conocer el nivel de riesgo en que se encuentra cada domicilio. Además, considerando la importancia de las poblaciones peridomésticas en los procesos de reinfestación, se analizará la capacidad dispersiva que presentan los triatominos a través de su estado nutricional y, mediante la morfometría clásica y geométrica, se analizará como se estructura la diversidad fenotípica en los domicilios y peridomicilios. La aplicación de estrategias educativas en el ámbito escolar favorecerá el conocimiento en general de esta enfermedad, la vigilancia entomólogica y las acciones preventivas por parte de los niños en edad escolar. Chagas disease is considered socially and economically, one of the most important parasitic diseases in Latin America. Vector transmission of this disease has been interrupted in much of Latin America, however, vector control has failed to achieve sustainability and effectiveness necessary to interrupt the vector transmission in the Gran Chaco region of Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. The permanence of residual populations of triatomine in the peridomiciliary structures enables fast recovery of the vector, suggesting that these populations would be the main source of reinfestation of human dwellings. Within the province of Córdoba, there are areas that the historical presence of triatomines, the recent notification of cases of Chagas vector and recording of wild species invading the homes deserve further study. That is why, there will be a survey of Triatominae species that inhabit the domiciles and peridomiciles in these areas, rates of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi, their host feeding preferences, the risk factors that favor its shelter, their dispersive capacity and phenotypic differentiation between peridomestic populations, to better understand the potential danger they may present to the man and vector species of Chagas disease. In addition, complementary, educational strategies in schools were implemented that serve for entomological surveillance and preventive actions of Chagas disease. The determination of the potential food profile patterns of each vector is essential for epidemiological analysis of risk situations. Dispersive capacity and phenotypic differentiation of populations may allow understanding the movement and flow of triatomines and from human habitation.

Flood analysis of the clare river catchment considering traditional factors and climate change

The main objective of this thesis on flooding was to produce a detailed report on flooding with specific reference to the Clare River catchment. Past flooding in the Clare River catchment was assessed with specific reference to the November 2009 flood event. A Geographic Information System was used to produce a graphical representation of the spatial distribution of the November 2009 flood. Flood risk is prominent within the Clare River catchment especially in the region of Claregalway. The recent flooding events of November 2009 produced significant fluvial flooding from the Clare River. This resulted in considerable flood damage to property. There were also hidden costs such as the economic impact of the closing of the N17 until floodwater subsided. Land use and channel conditions are traditional factors that have long been recognised for their effect on flooding processes. These factors were examined in the context of the Clare River catchment to determine if they had any significant effect on flood flows. Climate change has become recognised as a factor that may produce more significant and frequent flood events in the future. Many experts feel that climate change will result in an increase in the intensity and duration of rainfall in western Ireland. This would have significant implications for the Clare River catchment, which is already vulnerable to flooding. Flood estimation techniques are a key aspect in understanding and preparing for flood events. This study uses methods based on the statistical analysis of recorded data and methods based on a design rainstorm and rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood flows. These provide a mathematical basis to evaluate the impacts of various factors on flooding and also to generate practical design floods, which can be used in the design of flood relief measures. The final element of the thesis includes the author’s recommendations on how flood risk management techniques can reduce existing flood risk in the Clare River catchment. Future implications to flood risk due to factors such as climate change and poor planning practices are also considered.

The concept of risk management in the renewable sector.

This study explores the perception of risk and the level of risk management implementation in the renewable sector. Risk management is emerging as a key issue due to the loss of confidence amongst banks, causing the attainment of financing to be difficult over the next few years. To attract financing, there is a fundamental requirement to manage risk in a way that minimizes the probability of a negative financial impact on the project. Miller and Lessard (2001) argue that successful projects are not selected but shaped with risk resolution in mind. Rather than evaluating projects at the outset based on projections of the full set of benefits, costs and risks over their lifetime, successful developers start with project ideas that have the potential of becoming viable. Therefore, this study bridges the gap that exists within the renewable sector in relation to risk management literature. This study succeeds through a detailed comparative case study analysis where two developers and two financiers were questioned through qualitative semi-structured interviews on the concept of risk management and its level implementation within the industry. It is believed that the growth in financed renewable energy projects depends on the adequate design and implementation of risk management to mitigate inherent project risks. However, this study revealed that are certain types of developers in existence within the renewable sector, which underestimate the magnitude of risk and view the development of projects as a ‘money racket’. Therefore, it can be concluded that perception of risk will also differ, causing risk and uncertainty to vary from project to project, resulting in investment reluctance to be associated with certain projects. The study originality lies in how it demonstrates to developers the concept of risk management, outlining the simplicity and benefits of implementing it in project development. Finally, this study contributes to the knowledge by enhancing the awareness and understanding of the presence and nature of risk in a RE project environment.

Femoral versus Radial Access in Primary Angioplasty. Analysis of the ACCEPT Registry

Background:The radial access provides a lower risk of bleeding and vascular complications related to the puncture site in comparison to the femoral access. Recent studies have suggested a reduction in mortality associated with the radial access in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.Objective:To compare the occurrence of adverse cardiovascular ischemic and hemorrhagic events in patients undergoing primary angioplasty according to the type of arterial access route.Methods:From August 2010 to December 2011, 588 patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention during acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were assessed; they were recruited from 47 centers participating in the ACCEPT registry. Patients were grouped and compared according to the arterial access used for the procedure.Results:The mean age was 61.8 years; 75% were males and 24% had diabetes mellitus. There was no difference between groups as regards the procedure success rate, as well as regards the occurrence of death, reinfarction, or stroke at six months of follow-up. Severe bleeding was reported in 1.1% of the sample analyzed, with no statistical difference related to the access used.Conclusions:The femoral and radial accesses are equally safe and effective for the performance of primary percutaneous coronary intervention. The low rate of cardiovascular events and of hemorrhagic complications reflects the quality of the participating centers and the operators expertise with the use of both techniques.

Death and Disability in Patients with Sleep Apnea - A Meta-analysis

Background:Several studies have been attempting to ascertain the risks of Sleep Apnea Syndrome (SAS) and its morbidity and mortality.Objective:The main objective was to verify whether SAS increases the risk of death; the secondary objective was to evaluate its morbidity in relation to cardiovascular disease and the number of days hospitalized.Methods:A systematic review and a meta-analysis were performed of the published literature. The research focused on studies comparing the number of deaths in patients with untreated SAS and in patients with non-SAS.Results:The meta-analysis was based on 13 articles, corresponding to a total of 13394 participants divided into two groups (non-SAS = 6631; SAS = 6763). The meta-analysis revealed a clear association of SAS with the occurrence of fatal events, where the presence of SAS corresponded to a 61% higher risk of total mortality (OR=1.61; CI: 1.43 - 1.81; p < 0.00001), while the risk of death from cardiac causes was 2.52 times higher in these patients (OR = 2.52; IC: 1.80 - 3.52; p < 0.00001). Similar results were obtained for mortality from other causes (OR = 1.68; CI: 1.08 - 2.61; p = 0.02). Resembling results were obtained in the remaining outcomes: non-fatal cardiovascular events were higher in the SAS group (OR = 2.46; IC: 1.80 - 3.36; p < 0.00001), the average number of days hospitalized was also higher in the SAS group (IV = 18.09; IC: 13.34 - 22.84; p < 0.00001).Conclusion:The results show that untreated SAS significantly increases the risk of death, cardiovascular events and the average number of days hospitalized.