914 resultados para Naive Bayes
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BACKGROUND Respiratory tract infections and subsequent airway inflammation occur early in the life of infants with cystic fibrosis. However, detailed information about the microbial composition of the respiratory tract in infants with this disorder is scarce. We aimed to undertake longitudinal in-depth characterisation of the upper respiratory tract microbiota in infants with cystic fibrosis during the first year of life. METHODS We did this prospective cohort study at seven cystic fibrosis centres in Switzerland. Between Feb 1, 2011, and May 31, 2014, we enrolled 30 infants with a diagnosis of cystic fibrosis. Microbiota characterisation was done with 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing and oligotyping of nasal swabs collected every 2 weeks from the infants with cystic fibrosis. We compared these data with data for an age-matched cohort of 47 healthy infants. We additionally investigated the effect of antibiotic treatment on the microbiota of infants with cystic fibrosis. Statistical methods included regression analyses with a multivariable multilevel linear model with random effects to correct for clustering on the individual level. FINDINGS We analysed 461 nasal swabs taken from the infants with cystic fibrosis; the cohort of healthy infants comprised 872 samples. The microbiota of infants with cystic fibrosis differed compositionally from that of healthy infants (p=0·001). This difference was also found in exclusively antibiotic-naive samples (p=0·001). The disordering was mainly, but not solely, due to an overall increase in the mean relative abundance of Staphylococcaceae in infants with cystic fibrosis compared with healthy infants (multivariable linear regression model stratified by age and adjusted for season; second month: coefficient 16·2 [95% CI 0·6-31·9]; p=0·04; third month: 17·9 [3·3-32·5]; p=0·02; fourth month: 21·1 [7·8-34·3]; p=0·002). Oligotyping analysis enabled differentiation between Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative Staphylococci. Whereas the analysis showed a decrease in S aureus at and after antibiotic treatment, coagulase-negative Staphylococci increased. INTERPRETATION Our study describes compositional differences in the microbiota of infants with cystic fibrosis compared with healthy controls, and disordering of the microbiota on antibiotic administration. Besides S aureus, coagulase-negative Staphylococci also contributed to the disordering identified in these infants. These findings are clinically important in view of the crucial role that bacterial pathogens have in the disease progression of cystic fibrosis in early life. Our findings could be used to inform future studies of the effect of antibiotic treatment on the microbiota in infants with cystic fibrosis, and could assist in the prevention of early disease progression in infants with this disorder. FUNDING Swiss National Science Foundation, Fondation Botnar, the Swiss Society for Cystic Fibrosis, and the Swiss Lung Association Bern.
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Partial differential equation (PDE) solvers are commonly employed to study and characterize the parameter space for reaction-diffusion (RD) systems while investigating biological pattern formation. Increasingly, biologists wish to perform such studies with arbitrary surfaces representing ‘real’ 3D geometries for better insights. In this paper, we present a highly optimized CUDA-based solver for RD equations on triangulated meshes in 3D. We demonstrate our solver using a chemotactic model that can be used to study snakeskin pigmentation, for example. We employ a finite element based approach to perform explicit Euler time integrations. We compare our approach to a naive GPU implementation and provide an in-depth performance analysis, demonstrating the significant speedup afforded by our optimizations. The optimization strategies that we exploit could be generalized to other mesh based processing applications with PDE simulations.
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Este trabalho tem com objetivo abordar o problema de alocação de ativos (análise de portfólio) sob uma ótica Bayesiana. Para isto foi necessário revisar toda a análise teórica do modelo clássico de média-variância e na sequencia identificar suas deficiências que comprometem sua eficácia em casos reais. Curiosamente, sua maior deficiência não esta relacionado com o próprio modelo e sim pelos seus dados de entrada em especial ao retorno esperado calculado com dados históricos. Para superar esta deficiência a abordagem Bayesiana (modelo de Black-Litterman) trata o retorno esperado como uma variável aleatória e na sequência constrói uma distribuição a priori (baseado no modelo de CAPM) e uma distribuição de verossimilhança (baseado na visão de mercado sob a ótica do investidor) para finalmente aplicar o teorema de Bayes tendo como resultado a distribuição a posteriori. O novo valor esperado do retorno, que emerge da distribuição a posteriori, é que substituirá a estimativa anterior do retorno esperado calculado com dados históricos. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que o modelo Bayesiano apresenta resultados conservadores e intuitivos em relação ao modelo clássico de média-variância.
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The fate of key species, such as the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus, in the course of global change is of particular interest since any change in their abundance and/or performance may entail community-wide effects. In the fluctuating Western Baltic, species typically experience a broad range of environmental conditions, which may preselect them to better cope with climate change. In this study, we examined the sensitivity of two crucial ontogenetic phases (naupliar, cypris) of the barnacle toward a range of temperature (12, 20, and 28°C) and salinity (5, 15, and 30 psu) combinations. Under all salinity treatments, nauplii developed faster at intermediate and high temperatures. Cyprid metamorphosis success, in contrast, was interactively impacted by temperature and salinity. Survival of nauplii decreased with increasing salinity under all temperature treatments. Highest settlement rates occurred at the intermediate temperature and salinity combination, i.e., 20°C and 15 psu. Settlement success of "naive" cyprids, i.e., when nauplii were raised in the absence of stress (20°C/15 psu), was less impacted by stressful temperature/salinity combinations than that of cyprids with a stress history. Here, settlement success was highest at 30 psu particularly at low and high temperatures. Surprisingly, larval survival was not highest under the conditions typical for the Kiel Fjord at the season of peak settlement (20°C/15 psu). The proportion of nauplii that ultimately transformed to attached juveniles was, however, highest under these "home" conditions. Overall, only particularly stressful combinations of temperature and salinity substantially reduced larval performance and development. Given more time for adaptation, the relatively smooth climate shifts predicted will probably not dramatically affect this species.
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"This report is based on Teresa Bayes' and Sandra Hough's masters theses ... "--Pref.
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Mode of access: Internet.
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The quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy is less than optimal. Complete and accurate reporting is necessary to enable readers to assess the potential for bias in the study and to evaluate the generalisability of the results. A group of scientists and editors has developed the STARD (Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy) statement to improve the reporting the quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy. The statement consists of a checklist of 25 items and flow diagram that authors can use to ensure that all relevant information is present. This explanatory document aims to facilitate the use, understanding and dissemination of the checklist. The document contains a clarification of the meaning, rationale and optimal use of each item on the checklist, as well as a short summary of the available evidence on bias and applicability. The STARD statement, checklist, flowchart and this explanation and elaboration document should be useful resources to improve reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies. Complete and informative reporting can only lead to better decisions in healthcare.
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BACKGROUND: Sustained virological response (SVR) is the primary objective in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Results from a recent clinical trial of patients with previously untreated CHC demonstrate that the combination of peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin produces a greater SVR than interferon alpha-2b and ribavirin combination therapy. However, the cost-effectiveness of peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin in the U.S. setting has not been investigated. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to investigate cost-effectiveness in patients with CHC using genotype to guide treatment duration. SVR and disease progression parameters were derived from the clinical trials and epidemiologic studies. The impact of treatment on life expectancy and costs were projected for a lifetime. Patients who had an SVR were assumed to remain virus-free for the rest of their lives. In genotype 1 patients, the SVRs were 46% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 36% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. In genotype 2/3 patients, the SVRs were 76% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 61% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Quality of life and costs were based on estimates from the literature. All costs were based on published U.S. medical care costs and were adjusted to 2003 U.S. dollars. Costs and benefits beyond the first year were discounted at 3%. RESULTS: In genotype 1, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALY) by 0.70 yr compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin, producing a cost-effectiveness ratio of $2,600 per QALY gained. In genotype 2/3 patients, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases QALY by 1.05 yr in comparison to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Peginterferon alpha-2a combination therapy in patients with HCV genotype 2 or 3 is dominant (more effective and cost saving) compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Results weighted by genotype prevalence (75% genotype 1; 25% genotype 2 or 3) also show that peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin is dominant. Peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin remained cost-effective (below $16,500 per QALY gained) under sensitivity analyses on key clinical and cost parameters. CONCLUSION: Peginterferon alpha-2a in combination with ribavirin with duration of therapy based on genotype, is cost-effective compared with conventional interferon alpha-2b in combination with ribavirin when given to treatment-naive adults with CHC.
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The ability of adult cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner), to distinguish and respond to enantiomers of alpha-pinene was investigated with electrophysiological and behavioral methods. Electroantennogram recordings using mixtures of the enantiomers at saturating dose levels, and single unit electrophysiology, indicated that the two forms were detected by the same receptor neurons. The relative size of the electroantennogram response was higher for the (-) compared to the (+) form, indicating greater affinity for the (-) form at the level of the dendrites. Behavioral assays investigated the ability of moths to discriminate between, and respond to the (+) and (-) forms of alpha-pinene. Moths with no odor conditioning showed an innate preference for (+)-alpha-pinene. This preference displayed by naive moths was not significantly different from the preferences of moths conditioned on (+)-alpha-pinene. However, we found a significant difference in preference between moths conditioned on the (-) enantiomer compared to naive moths and moths conditioned on (+)-alpha-pinene, showing that learning plays an important role in the behavioral response. Moths are less able to distinguish between enantiomers of alpha-pinene than different odors (e.g., phenylacetaldehyde versus (-)-alpha-pinene) in learning experiments. The relevance of receptor discrimination of enantiomers and learning ability of the moths in host plant choice is discussed.
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Background: The 'ease of use' andaccuracy in measurement of the vertical optic cup/discratio (VCDR) was compared between the conventional direct ophthalmoscope(CO) and Panoptic direct ophthalmoscope (PO) in a group of 'naive' firstyear medical students to determine which would be more suitablefor non-ophthalmologists. Methods: In this quasi-randomized method comparison study,eight students received an introductory session on ophthalmoscopythen examined 18 eyes (9 left, 9 right) with each ophthalmoscopein a private practice. The subjects were the eight students themselvesplus two other subjects. Each subject (n = 10)had one eye dilated. Students determined a VCDR and a subjectivescore of 'ease of use' on a scale of 1 (difficult)to 10 (easy). A consultant ophthalmologist (GAG) determined thebenchmark VCDR for each eye with each ophthalmoscope. Results: Of 288 eye examinations, there were 111 measure-ments of VCDR using the CO (47 undilated, 64dilated), and 140 measurements using the PO (75 undilated, 65 dilated).Differences in the students' estimated VCDR and the benchmarkwere similar for the CO and PO (P = 0.67). 'Easeof use' was scored in 288 eyes and the median score washigher in the PO overall (CO: median 8, IQR 6-9; PO median9, IQR 8-10; P < 0.0001), andwithin each session (P < 0.0001 foreach session). Conclusions: Medical students found the PO mucheasier to use, with accuracy of rating the VCDR similar to the CO. Thiscomparison would support the wider use of the PO amongst medicalstudents, general practitioners and other primary care providers.
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As human papillomavirus-like particles (HPV-VLP) represent a promising vaccine delivery vehicle, delineation of the interaction of VLP with professional APC should improve vaccine development. Differences in the capacity of VLP to signal dendritic cells (DC) and Langerhans cells (LC) have been demonstrated, and evidence has been presented for both clathrin-coated pits and proteoglycans (PG) in the uptake pathway of VLP into epithelial cells. Therefore, we compared HPV-VLP uptake mechanisms in human monocyte-derived DC and LC, and their ability to cross-present HPV VLP-associated antigen in the MHC class I pathway. DC and LC each took up virus-like particles (VLP). DC uptake of and signalling by VLP was inhibited by amiloride or cytochalasin D (CCD), but not by filipin treatment, and was blocked by several sulfated and non-sulfated polysaccharides and anti-CD16. In contrast, LC uptake was inhibited only by filipin, and VLP in LC were associated with caveolin, langerin, and CD1a. These data suggest fundamentally different routes of VLP uptake by DC and LC. Despite these differences, VLP taken up by DC and LC were each able to prime naive CD8(+) T cells and induce cytolytic effector T cells in vitro. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Paradoxically, while peripheral self-tolerance exists for constitutively presented somatic self Ag, self-peptide recognized in the context of MHC class II has been shown to sensitize T cells for subsequent activation. We have shown that MHC class II(+)CD86(+)CD40(-) DC, which can be generated from bone marrow in the presence of an NF-kappaB inhibitor, and which constitutively populate peripheral tissues and lymphoid organs in naive animals, can induce Ag-specific tolerance. In this study, we show that CD40(-) human monocyte-derived dendritic cells (DC), generated in the presence of an NF-kappaB inhibitor, signal phosphorylation of TCRzeta, but little proliferation or IFN-gamma in vitro. Proliferation is arrested in the G(1)/G(0) phase of the cell cycle. Surprisingly, responding T cells are neither anergic nor regulatory, but are sensitized for subsequent IFN-gamma production. The data indicate that signaling through NF-kappaB determines the capacity of DC to stimulate T cell proliferation. Functionally, NF-kappaB(-)CD40(-)class II+ DC may either tolerize or sensitize T cells. Thus, while CD40(-) DC appear to prime or prepare T cells, the data imply that signals derived from other cells drive the generation either of Ag-specific regulatory or effector cells in vivo.
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The development of resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine by Plasmodium parasites is a major problem for the effective treatment of malaria, especially P. falciparum malaria. Although the molecular basis for parasite resistance is known, the factors promoting the development and transmission of these resistant parasites are less clear. This paper reports the results of a quantitative comparison of factors previously hypothesized as important for the development of drug resistance, drug dosage, time of treatment, and drug elimination half-life, with an in-host dynamics model of P. falciparum malaria in a malaria-naive host. The results indicate that the development of drug resistance can be categorized into three stages. The first is the selection of existing parasites with genetic mutations in the dihydrofolate reductase or dihydropteroate synthetase gene. This selection is driven by the long half-life of the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine combination. The second stage involves the selection of parasites with allelic types of higher resistance within the host during an infection. The timing of treatment relative to initiation of a specific anti-P. falciparum EMP1 immune response is an important factor during this stage, as is the treatment dosage. During the third stage, clinical treatment failure becomes prevalent as the parasites develop sufficient resistance mutations to survive therapeutic doses of the drug combination. Therefore, the model output reaffirms the importance of correct treatment of confirmed malaria cases in slowing the development of parasite resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine.
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Euastacus crayfish are endemic to freshwater ecosystems of the eastern coast of Australia. While recent evolutionary studies have focused on a few of these species, here we provide a comprehensive phylogenetic estimate of relationships among the species within the genus. We sequenced three mitochondrial gene regions (COI, 16S, and 12S) and one nuclear region (28S) from 40 species of the genus Euastacus, as well as one undescribed species. Using these data, we estimated the phylogenetic relationships within the genus using maximum-likelihood, parsimony, and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Using Bayes factors to test different model hypotheses, we found that the best phylogeny supports monophyletic groupings of all but two recognized species and suggests a widespread ancestor that diverged by vicariance. We also show that Eitastacus and Astacopsis are most likely monophyletic sister genera. We use the resulting phylogeny as a framework to test biogeographic hypotheses relating to the diversification of the genus. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.