Identification of dynamical systems with fractional derivative damping models using inverse sensitivity analysis

The problem of identifying parameters of time invariant linear dynamical systems with fractional derivative damping models, based on a spatially incomplete set of measured frequency response functions and experimentally determined eigensolutions, is considered. Methods based on inverse sensitivity analysis of damped eigensolutions and frequency response functions are developed. It is shown that the eigensensitivity method requires the development of derivatives of solutions of an asymmetric generalized eigenvalue problem. Both the first and second order inverse sensitivity analyses are considered. The study demonstrates the successful performance of the identification algorithms developed based on synthetic data on one, two and a 33 degrees of freedom vibrating systems with fractional dampers. Limited studies have also been conducted by combining finite element modeling with experimental data on accelerances measured in laboratory conditions on a system consisting of two steel beams rigidly joined together by a rubber hose. The method based on sensitivity of frequency response functions is shown to be more efficient than the eigensensitivity based method in identifying system parameters, especially for large scale systems.

Analysis of an internally mountable accelerometer balance system for use with non-isotropic models in shock tunnels

Knowledge of drag force is an important design parameter in aerodynamics. Measurement of aerodynamic forces at hypersonic speed is a challenge and usually ground test facilities like shock tunnels are used to carry out such tests. Accelerometer based force balances are commonly employed for measuring aerodynamic drag around bodies in hypersonic shock tunnels. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of model material on the performance of an accelerometer balance used for measurement of drag in impulse facilities. From the experimental studies performed on models constructed out of Bakelite HYLEM and Aluminum, it is clear that the rigid body assumption does not hold good during the short testing duration available in shock tunnels. This is notwithstanding the fact that the rubber bush used for supporting the model allows unconstrained motion of the model during the short testing time available in the shock tunnel. The vibrations induced in the model on impact loading in the shock tunnel are damped out in metallic model, resulting in a smooth acceleration signal, while the signal become noisy and non-linear when we use non-isotropic materials like Bakelite HYLEM. This also implies that careful analysis and proper data reduction methodologies are necessary for measuring aerodynamic drag for non-metallic models in shock tunnels. The results from the drag measurements carried out using a 60 degrees half angle blunt cone is given in the present analysis.

Models for engaging public-private partnerships in civil infrastructure projects: A case of ‘having your cake and eating it too’?

Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) are established globally as an important mode of procurement and the features of PPP, not least of which the transfer of risk, appeal to governments and particularly in the current economic climate. There are many other advantages of PPP that are claimed as outweighing the costs of PPP and affording Value for Money (VfM) relative to traditionally financed projects or non-PPP. That said, it is the case that we lack comparative whole-life empirical studies of VfM in PPP and non-PPP. Whilst we await this kind of study, the pace and trajectory of PPP seem set to continue and so in the meantime, the virtues of seeking to improve PPP appear incontrovertible. The decision about which projects, or parts of projects, to offer to the market as a PPP and the decision concerning the allocation or sharing risks as part of engagement of the PPP consortium are among the most fundamental decisions that determine whether PPP deliver VfM. The focus in the paper is on latter decision concerning governments’ attitudes towards risk and more specifically, the effect of this decision on the nature of the emergent PPP consortium, or PPP model, including its economic behavior and outcomes. This paper presents an exploration into the extent to which the seemingly incompatible alternatives of risk allocation and risk sharing, represented by the orthodox/conventional PPP model and the heterodox/alliance PPP model respectively, can be reconciled along with suggestions for new research directions to inform this reconciliation. In so doing, an important step is taken towards charting a path by which governments can harness the relative strengths of both kinds of PPP model.

Quantitative assessment of total phenol contents of European oak (Quercus petraea and Quercus robur) by diffuse reflectance NIR spectroscopy on solid wood surfaces

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) combined with multivariate analysis techniques was applied to assess phenol content of European oak. NIRS data were firstly collected directly from solid heartwood surfaces: in doing so, the spectra were recorded separately from the longitudinal radial and the transverse section surfaces by diffuse reflectance. The spectral data were then pretreated by several pre-processing procedures, such as multiplicative scatter correction, first derivative, second derivative and standard normal variate. The tannin contents of sawmill collected from the longitudinal radial and transverse section surfaces were determined by quantitative extraction with water/methanol (1:4, by vol). Then, total phenol contents in tannin extracts were measured by the Folin-Ciocalteu method. The NIR data were correlated against the Folin-Ciocalteu results. Calibration models built with partial least squares regression displayed strong correlation - as expressed by high determination correlation coefficient (r2) and high ratio of performance to deviation (RPD) - between measured and predicted total phenols content, and weak calibration and prediction errors (RMSEC, RMSEP). The best calibration was provided with second derivative spectra (r2 value of 0.93 for the longitudinal radial plane and of 0.91 for the transverse section plane). This study illustrates that the NIRS technique when used in conjunction with multivariate analysis could provide reliable, quick and non-destructive assessment of European oak heartwood extractives.

Models of reserve manpower

Absenteeism is one of the major problems of Indian industries. It necessitates the employment of more manpower than the jobs require, resulting in the increase of manpower costs, and lowers the efficiency of plant operation through lowered performance and higher rejects. It also causes machine idleness, if extra manpower is not hired, resulting in disrupted work schedules and assignments. Several studies have investigated the causes of absenteeism (Vaid 1967) for example and their remedy and relationship between absenteeism and turnover with a suggested model for diagnosis and treatment (Hawk 1976) However, the production foremen and supervisor will face the operating task of determining how many extra operatives are to be hired in order to stave off the adverse effects of absenteeism on the man-machine system. This paper deals with a class of reserve manpower models based on the reject allowance model familiar in quality control literature. The present study considers, in addition to absenteeism, machine failures and the graded nature of manpower met within production systems and seeks to find optimal reserve manpower through computer simulation.

NIR model development and robustness in prediction of melon fruit total soluble solids

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.

Combining propensity and influence models for product adoption prediction

This paper studies the problem of selecting users in an online social network for targeted advertising so as to maximize the adoption of a given product. In previous work, two families of models have been considered to address this problem: direct targeting and network-based targeting. The former approach targets users with the highest propensity to adopt the product, while the latter approach targets users with the highest influence potential – that is users whose adoption is most likely to be followed by subsequent adoptions by peers. This paper proposes a hybrid approach that combines a notion of propensity and a notion of influence into a single utility function. We show that targeting a fixed number of high-utility users results in more adoptions than targeting either highly influential users or users with high propensity.

The accuracy of varietal selection using factor analytic models for multi-environment plant breeding trials

Modeling of cultivar x trial effects for multienvironment trials (METs) within a mixed model framework is now common practice in many plant breeding programs. The factor analytic (FA) model is a parsimonious form used to approximate the fully unstructured form of the genetic variance-covariance matrix in the model for MET data. In this study, we demonstrate that the FA model is generally the model of best fit across a range of data sets taken from early generation trials in a breeding program. In addition, we demonstrate the superiority of the FA model in achieving the most common aim of METs, namely the selection of superior genotypes. Selection is achieved using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of cultivar effects at each environment, considered either individually or as a weighted average across environments. In practice, empirical BLUPs (E-BLUPs) of cultivar effects must be used instead of BLUPs since variance parameters in the model must be estimated rather than assumed known. While the optimal properties of minimum mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) and maximum correlation between true and predicted effects possessed by BLUPs do not hold for E-BLUPs, a simulation study shows that E-BLUPs perform well in terms of MSEP.

Models for the field-based toxicity of copper and zinc salts to wheat in 11 Australian soils and comparison to laboratory-based models

Laboratory-based relationships that model the phytotoxicity of metals using soil properties have been developed. This paper presents the first field-based phytotoxicity relationships. Wheat(Triticum aestivum L) was grown at 11 Australian field sites at which soil was spiked with copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) salts. Toxicity was measured as inhibition of plant growth at 8 weeks and grain yield at harvest. The added Cu and Zn EC10 values for both endpoints ranged from approximately 3 to 4760 mg/kg. There were no relationships between field-based 8-week biomass and grain yield toxicity values for either metal. Cu toxicity was best modelled using pH and organic carbon content while Zn toxicity was best modelled using pH and the cation exchange capacity. The best relationships estimated toxicity within a factor of two of measured values. Laboratory-based phytotoxicity relationships could not accurately predict field-based phytotoxicity responses.

The sensitivity of updated NIR PLS models for fruit sorting to initial parameter settings

Partial least squares regression models on NIR spectra are often optimised (for wavelength range, mathematical pretreatment and outlier elimination) in terms of calibration terms of validation performance with reference to totally independent populations.

Optimization models for expanding a railway’s theoretical capacity

Changing the topology of a railway network can greatly affect its capacity. Railway networks however can be altered in a multitude of different ways. As each way has significant immediate and long term financial ramifications, it is a difficult task to decide how and where to expand the network. In response some railway capacity expansion models (RCEM) have been developed to help capacity planning activities, and to remove physical bottlenecks in the current railway system. The exact purpose of these models is to decide given a fixed budget, where track duplications and track sub divisions should be made, in order to increase theoretical capacity most. These models are high level and strategic, and this is why increases to the theoretical capacity is concentrated upon. The optimization models have been applied to a case study to demonstrate their application and their worth. The case study evidently shows how automated approaches of this nature could be a formidable alternative to current manual planning techniques and simulation. If the exact effect of track duplications and sub-divisions can be sufficiently approximated, this approach will be very applicable.

Approaches to selecting native plant replacements for fleshy-fruited invasive species

Invasive plants are a serious threat to biodiversity. Yet, in some cases, they may play an important ecological role in heavily modified landscapes, such as where fleshy-fruited invasive plants support populations of native frugivores. How can such conservation conflicts be managed? We advocate an approach in which native fleshy-fruited plants are ranked on their ability to provide the fruit food resources for native frugivores currently being provided by invasive plants. If these native taxa are preferentially used, where ecologically appropriate, in plantings for restoration and in park and garden settings, they could help support native frugivore populations in the event of extensive invasive plant control. We develop and critically examine six approaches to selecting candidate native plant taxa: a multivariate approach based on the frugivore assemblage, a scoring model, and several multivariate approaches (including trait combinations having the greatest correlation with the diet of the native frugivore assemblage) based on the functional traits of fruit morphology, phenology, conspicuousness, and accessibility. To illustrate these approaches, we use a case study with Bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata) (Asteraceae), an Australian Weed of National Significance. The model using a dissimilarity value generated from all available traits identified a set of species used by the frugivores of C. monilifera more than null models. A replacement approach using species ranked by either all traits available or the frugivore community appears best suited to guide selection of plants in restoration practice.

Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of fat deposition models in beef steers using acslXtreme.

The Davis Growth Model (a dynamic steer growth model encompassing 4 fat deposition models) is currently being used by the phenotypic prediction program of the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Beef Genetic Technologies to predict P8 fat (mm) in beef cattle to assist beef producers meet market specifications. The concepts of cellular hyperplasia and hypertrophy are integral components of the Davis Growth Model. The net synthesis of total body fat (kg) is calculated from the net energy available after accounting tor energy needs for maintenance and protein synthesis. Total body fat (kg) is then partitioned into 4 fat depots (intermuscular, intramuscular, subcutaneous, and visceral). This paper reports on the parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of the DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) logistic growth equations and the fat deposition first-order differential equations in the Davis Growth Model using acslXtreme (Hunstville, AL, USA, Xcellon). The DNA and fat deposition parameter coefficients were found to be important determinants of model function; the DNA parameter coefficients with days on feed >100 days and the fat deposition parameter coefficients for all days on feed. The generalized NL2SOL optimization algorithm had the fastest processing time and the minimum number of objective function evaluations when estimating the 4 fat deposition parameter coefficients with 2 observed values (initial and final fat). The subcutaneous fat parameter coefficient did indicate a metabolic difference for frame sizes. The results look promising and the prototype Davis Growth Model has the potential to assist the beef industry meet market specifications.