The Omega model: from bankruptcy to occupation times in the red

Ruin occurs the first time when the surplus of a company or an institution is negative. In the Omega model, it is assumed that even with a negative surplus, the company can do business as usual until bankruptcy occurs. The probability of bankruptcy at a point of time only depends on the value of the negative surplus at that time. Under the assumption of Brownian motion for the surplus, the expected discounted value of a penalty at bankruptcy is determined, and hence the probability of bankruptcy. There is an intrinsic relation between the probability of no bankruptcy and an exposure random variable. In special cases, the distribution of the total time the Brownian motion spends below zero is found, and the Laplace transform of the integral of the negative part of the Brownian motion is expressed in terms of the Airy function of the first kind.

Svensksund mid Fort Slava

Helsingfors : A.W. Gröndahl & A.C. Öhman 1845 : Dresden, Adler u. Dietze

Centrality and investment strategies at the beginning of industrialisation in mid-nineteenth-century Catalonia

We apply social networks analysis to the study of an important database on investment and companies" share in the Catalonia (Spain) of the nineteenth century. In contrast with most of the existing related literature, usually addressing power relationships across administration boards, we focus on the structure of interactions among individual investors and firms. Centrality analysis uncovers interesting roles played by certain economic sectors (e.g. textile and financial). Furthermore, the diverse composition (in terms of economic activity) of communities in the network (subgroups more densely connected internally than with the rest of the network) reveals a high investment diversification, which nicely agrees with a known characteristic of traditional Catalan business strategies.

Mid-gut ACTH-secreting neuroendocrine tumor unmasked with (18)F-dihydroxyphenylalanine-positron emission tomography.

Ectopic ACTH Cushing's syndrome (EAS) is often caused by neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) of lungs, pancreas, thymus, and other less frequent locations. Localizing the source of ACTH can be challenging. A 64-year-old man presented with rapidly progressing fatigue, muscular weakness, and dyspnea. He was in poor condition and showed facial redness, proximal amyotrophy, and bruises. Laboratory disclosed hypokalemia, metabolic alkalosis, and markedly elevated ACTH and cortisol levels. Pituitary was normal on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and bilateral inferior petrosal sinus blood sampling with corticotropin-releasing hormone stimulation showed no significant central-to-periphery gradient of ACTH. Head and neck, thoracic and abdominal computerized tomography (CT), MRI, somatostatin receptor scintigraphy (SSRS), and (18)F-deoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) failed to identify the primary tumor. (18)F-dihydroxyphenylalanine (F-DOPA)-PET/CT unveiled a 20-mm nodule in the jejunum and a metastatic lymph node. Segmental jejunum resection showed two adjacent NETs, measuring 2.0 and 0.5 cm with a peritoneal metastasis. The largest tumor expressed ACTH in 30% of cells. Following surgery, after a transient adrenal insufficiency, ACTH and cortisol levels returned to normal values and remain normal over a follow-up of 26 months. Small mid-gut NETs are difficult to localize on CT or MRI, and require metabolic imaging. Owing to low mitotic activity, NETs are generally poor candidates for FDG-PET, whereas SSRS shows poor sensitivity in EAS due to intrinsically low tumor concentration of type-2 somatostatin receptors (SST2) or to receptor down regulation by excess cortisol. However, F-DOPA-PET, which is related to amine precursor uptake by NETs, has been reported to have high positive predictive value for occult EAS despite low sensitivity, and constitutes a useful alternative to more conventional methods of tumor localization. LEARNING POINTS: Uncontrolled high cortisol levels in EAS can be lethal if untreated.Surgical excision is the keystone of NETs treatment, thus tumor localization is crucial.Most cases of EAS are caused by NETs, which are located mainly in the lungs. However, small gut NETs are elusive to conventional imaging and require metabolic imaging for detection.FDG-PET, based on tumor high metabolic rate, may not detect NETs that have low mitotic activity. SSRS may also fail, due to absent or low concentration of SST2, which may be down regulated by excess cortisol.F-DOPA-PET, based on amine-precursor uptake, can be a useful method to localize the occult source of ACTH in EAS when other methods have failed.

The measurement of ice velocity, mass balance and thinning-rate on Johnsons Glacier, Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

A network of twenty stakes was set up on Johnsons Glacier in order to determine its dynamics. During the austral summers from 1994-95 to 1997-98, we estimated surface velocities, mass balances and ice thickness variations. Horizontal velocity increased dow nstream from 1 m a- 1 near the ice divides to 40 m a- 1 near the ice terminus. The accumulation zone showed low accumulation rates (maximum of 0,6 m a- 1 (ice)), whereas in the lower part of the glacier, ablation rates were 4,3 m a- 1 (ice). Over the 3-year study period, both in the accumulation and ablation zones, we detected a reduction in the ice surface level ranging from 2 to 10 m from the annual ve rt ical velocities and ice-thinning data, the mass balance was obtained and compared with the mass balance field values, resulting in similar estimates. Flux values were calculated using cross-section data and horizontal velocities, and compared with the results obtained by means of mass balance and ice thinning data using the continuity equation. The two methods gave similar results.

Biogeochemical processes controlling oxygen and carbon isotopes of diatom silica in Late Glacial to Holocene lacustrine rhythmites

Biogeochemical cycles and sedimentary records in lakes are related to climate controls on hydrology and catchment processes. Changes in the isotopic imposition of the diatom frustules (δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom ) in lacustrine sediments can be used to reconstruct palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental changes. The Lago Chungará (Andean Altiplano, 18°15 ′ S, 69°10 ′ W, 4520 masl) diatomaceous laminated sediments are made up of white and green multiannual rhythmites. White laminae were formed during short-term diatom super-blooms, and are composed almost exclusively of large-sized Cyclostephanos andinus.These diatoms bloom during mixing events when recycled nutrients from the bottom waters are brought to the surface and/or when nutrients are introduced from the catchment during periods of strong runoff. Conversely, the green laminae are thought to have been deposited over several years and are composed of a mixture of diatoms (mainly smaller valves of C. andinus and Discostella stelligera ) and organic matter. These green laminae reflect the lake's hydrological recovery from a status favouring the diatom super-blooms (white laminae) towards baseline conditions. δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom from 11,990 to 11,530 cal years BP allow us to reconstruct shifts in the precipitation/evaporation ratio and changes in the lake water dissolved carbon concentration, respectively. δ 18 O diatom values indicate that white laminae formation occurred mainly during low lake level stages, whereas green laminae formation generally occurred during high lake level stages. The isotope and chronostratigraphical data together suggest that white laminae deposition is caused by extraordinary environmental events. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and changes in solar activity are the most likely climate forcing mechanisms that could trigger such events, favouring hydrological changes at interannual-to-decadal scale. This study demonstrates the potential for laminated lake sediments to document extreme pluriannual events.

Mesozoic geology of Cape Shirreff, Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica.

Al Cap de Shirr e ff (Fig. 1) hi aflora una successió volcànica de com a mínim 450 m de potència, constituïda principalment per laves i, en menor proporció, bretxes vulcanoclàstiques (Fig. 2). Les laves són basalts olivínics subalcalins i andesites basàltiques, que generalment tenen un aspecte massiu. Tot i això, la successió volcànica localment forma una alternança decimètrica de nivells durs i tous, amb potències va r i a bles i presència local de discordances angulars i onlaps, que reflecteixen geometries deposicionals complexes. A la zona nord del Cap de Shirr e ff hi ha aflorament de bretxes vulcanoclàstiques d"aspecte massiu, que localment tenen intercalacions de laves...

Macrofossils in Raraku Lake (Easter Island) integrated with sedimentary and geochemical records towards a palaeoecological synthesis for the last 34,000 years

Macrofossil analysis of a composite 19 m long sediment core from Rano Raraku Lake (Easter Island)was related to litho-sedimentary and geochemical features of the sediment. Strong stratigraphical patterns are shown by indirect gradient analyses of the data. The good correspondence between the stratigraphical patterns derived from macrofossil (Correspondence Analysis) and sedimentary and geochemical data (Principal Component Analysis) shows that macrofossil associations provide sound palaeolimnological information in conjunction with sedimentary data. The main taphonomic factors in fluencing the macrofossil assemblages are run-off from the catchment, the littoral plant belt, and the depositional environment within the basin. Five main stages during the last 34,000 calibrated years BP (cal yr BP) are characterised from the lithological, geochemical, and macrofossil data. From 34 to 14.6 cal kyr BP (last glacial period) the sediments were largely derived from the catchment, indicating a high energy lake environment with much erosion and run-off bringing abundant plant trichomes, lichens, and mosses into the centre of Raraku Lake.

Study of Johnsons Glacier (Livingston Island, Antarctica) by means of shallow ice cores and their tephra and by analysis of 137Cs content

With the aim of monitoring the dynamics of the Livingston Island ice cap, the Departament de Geodinàmica i Geofísica of the Universitat de Barcelona began ye a r ly surveys in the austral summer of 1994-95 on Johnsons Glacier. During this field campaign 10 shallow ice cores were sampled with a manual ve rtical ice-core drilling machine. The objectives were: i) to detect the tephra layer accumulated on the glacier surface, attributed to the 1970 Deception Island pyroclastic eruption, today interstratified; ii) to verify wheter this layer might serve as a reference level; iii) to measure the 1 3 7Cs radio-isotope concentration accumulated in the 1965 snow stratum; iv) to use the isochrone layer as a mean of verifying the age of the 1970 tephra layer; and, v) to calculate both the equilibrium line of the glacier and average mass balance over the last 28 years (1965-1993). The stratigr a p hy of the cores, their cumulative density curves and the isothermal ice temperatures recorded confi rm that Johnsons Glacier is a temperate glacier. Wi n d, solar radiation heating and liquid water are the main agents controlling the ve rtical and horizontal redistribution of the volcanic and cryoclastic particles that are sedimented and remain interstratified within the g l a c i e r. It is because of this redistribution that the 1970 tephra layer does not always serve as a ve ry good reference level. The position of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) in 1993, obtained by the 1 3 7Cs spectrometric analysis, varies from about 200 m a.s.l. to 250 m a.s.l. This indicates a rising trend in the equilibrium line altitude from the beginning of the 1970s to the present day. The va rying slope orientation of Johnsons Glacier relative to the prevailing NE wind gives rise to large local differences in snow accumulation, which locally modifies the equilibrium line altitude. In the cores studied, 1 3 7Cs appears to be associated with the 1970 tephra laye r. This indicates an intense ablation episode throughout the sampled area (at least up to 330 m a.s.l), which probably occurred synchronically to the 1970 tephra deposition or later. A rough estimate of the specific mass balance reveals a considerable accumulation gradient related to the increase with altitude.