Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Framework for a business interoperability quotient measurement model

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova da Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial (MEGI)

Desirable role in an international duopoly model with tariffs

In this paper, we study an international market model in which the home government imposes a tariff on the imported goods. The model has two stages. In the first stage, the home government chooses an import tariff to maximize a function that cares about the home firm’s profit and the total revenue. Then, the firms engage in a Cournot or in a Stackelberg competition. We compare the results obtained in the three different ways of moving on the decision make of the firms.

Exposição de pequenos animais à hiperóxia: um modelo para estudo do papel do músculo liso na hiper reactividade brônquica = Hyperoxia - a model to syudy the role of airway smooth muscle on bronchial hyperresponsiveness

Revista Portuguesa de Pneumologia. VIII(3): 223-235.

Mecanismos de gestão de recursos humanos no setor público: as implicações da austeridade

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Gestão das Organizações – Ramo de Gestão de Empresas Orientador: Professor Doutor Pedro Nunes Orientador: Professor Henrique Curado

International Stackelberg model with tariffs

This paper analyses the effects of tariffs on an international economy with a monopolistic sector with two firms, located in two countries, each one producing a homogeneous good for both home consumption and export to the other identical country. We consider a game among governments and firms. First, the government imposes a tariff on imports and then we consider the two types of moving: simultaneous (Cournot-type model) and sequential (Stackelberg-type model) decisions by the firms. We also compare the results obtained in each model.

Integrated didactics: an example of a curriculum model enhancing knowledge crossing

In this paper, we introduce an innovative course in the Portuguese Context, the Master's Course in “Integrated Didactics in Mother Tongue, Maths, Natural and Social Sciences”, taking place at the Lisbon School of Education and discussing in particular the results of the evaluation made by the students who attended the Curricular Unit - Integrated Didactics (CU-ID). This course was designed for in-service teachers of the first six years of schooling and intends to improve connections between different curriculum areas. In this paper, we start to present a few general ideas about curriculum development; to discuss the concept of integration; to present the principles and objectives of the course created as well as its structure; to describe the methodology used in the evaluation process of the above mentioned CU-ID. The results allow us to state that the students recognized, as positive features of the CU-ID, the presence in all sessions of two teachers simultaneously from different scientific areas, as well as invitations issued to specialists on the subject of integration and to other teachers that already promote forms of integration in schools. As negative features, students noted a lack of integrated purpose, applying simultaneously the four scientific areas of the course, and also indicated the need to be familiar with more models of integrated education. Consequently, the suggestions for improvement derived from these negative features. The students also considered that their evaluation process was correct, due to the fact that it was focused on the design of an integrated project for one of the school years already mentioned.

Location model for CCA-treated - wood waste remediation units

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Aplicação da filosofia Lean management:caso de estudo, aplicado à manutenção de edifícios

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia da Manutenção

Prevention of electrocardiographic and histopathologic alterations in the murine model of Chagas' disease by preinoculation of an attenuated Trypanosoma cruzi strain

The effects of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi on the electrocardiographic tracings of mice were studied in 4.groups of animals: (1) normal; (2) infected with a pathogenic T. cruzi strain (TS COB); (3) immunized with 3 intraperitoneal inocula of 10(6) attenuated T. cruzi epimastigotes (TCC) and (4) immunized-infected, which sequentially received the treatments of groups 3 and 2. Infection and protection were confirmed by xenodiagnosis and histopathology. Isolated alterations such as extrasystolia, 1st degree atrioventricular block, arrhythmia and ST elevation were observed in normal as well as infected mice. However, tracings taken repeatedly on each mouse over a 293 day period revealed a set of alterations which were more frequently seen in infected (14/22) than in normal (4/27) animals (p = 0.00048). These alterations consisted of supraventricular tachycardia, sinus bradycardia and persisting, first degree AV blocks, often associated to pacemaker changes. Inoculation of attenuated T. cruzi (group 3) did not increase these alterations (2/27 mice) but significantly prevented their development after challenge with the pathogenic strain (1/19 versus 14/22 mice, p = 0.000095). Thus, preimmunization reduced not only parasitemia but also a pathogenic consequence of T. cruzi infection. This evidence is relevant for immunoprevention studies against Chagas' disease.

Data analysis applied to the evaluation of a technological nature teaching model as a regional development tool

This paper presents the creation and development of technological schools directly linked to the business community and to higher public education. Establishing themselves as the key interface between the two sectors they make a signigicant contribution by having a greater competitive edge when faced with increasing competition in the tradional markets. The development of new business strategies supported by references of excellence, quality and competitiveness also provides a good link between the estalishment of partnerships aiming at the qualification of education boards at a medium level between the technological school and higher education with a technological foundation. We present a case study as an example depicting the success of Escola Tecnológica de Vale de Cambra.

Spectral solution for the air stripping pollutants removal dynamic model with non linear steady state conditions

This work deals with the numerical simulation of air stripping process for the pre-treatment of groundwater used in human consumption. The model established in steady state presents an exponential solution that is used, together with the Tau Method, to get a spectral approach of the solution of the system of partial differential equations associated to the model in transient state.

Criação, organização e gestão de uma empresa municipal: o caso da PFR Invest

O presente documento, elaborado especificamente para a minha candidatura às provas de “Especialista” pelo Instituto Politécnico do Porto, está centrado apenas na minha actividade profissional dos últimos 7 anos e considera a sua relação com uma futura atividade académica como docente. A possibilidade de participar na definição, criação, organização e gestão de uma empresa municipal, na qualidade de seu Diretor-Executivo e Presidente do Conselho de Administração, num processo iniciado no contexto do Regime Jurídico do Setor Empresarial Local de 2006, constituiu um momento central no meu processo de aprendizagem e investigação no domínio do Enquadramento na Organização / Empresa. No quadro de uma nova ordem mundial, onde o poder público é convocado a agir em prol do desenvolvimento das matrizes económicas, onde a concorrência pelos investimentos escassos é crescente e onde se aprofundou o problema do desemprego estrutural, torna-se urgente para os governos locais a elaboração de políticas públicas e privadas que potenciem os fatores locais, transformando-os em vantagens competitivas. O Município de Paços de Ferreira propôs-se desenvolver um modelo que decorreu diretamente do Regime Jurídico do Setor Empresarial Local (que veio promover e até estimular o desenvolvimento de iniciativas empresariais locais com um caráter racional e otimizado), e que pressupôs a criação de uma entidade empresarial municipal que realizasse o investimento necessário à concretização da zonas de acolhimento empresarial de Paços de Ferreira, assegurasse a sua gestão e a atração e captação de investimento privado gerador de riqueza e de emprego para o Concelho. Este relatório analisa, em detalhe, todos os passos na criação, organização e gestão dessa empresa municipal - a PFR Invest.

The determinants of trade credit: a study of portuguese industrial companies

Despite the relevance of trade credit as a source of business financing, the topic is far from being considered exhausted, especially because there is no general and integrated theory explaining the causes and consequences of trade credit.Our research aims to contribute towards the literature that studies the determinants for granting and receiving trade credit. In this sequence, the present study seeks to empirically test some theories about the reasons why companies grant and receive commercial credit. For this purpose we apply a fixed effect model to a panel of 11 040 Portuguese industrial companies, of which 360 are large companies and the majority 10 680 are Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) for the period between 2003 and 2009. We conclude that large companies (with greater access to credit market) serve as financial intermediaries to their clients with less access to finance. In addition, it was observed that the supplier companies use trade credit as a legal means of price discrimination. Finally, financially constrained enterprises, especially in times of financial crisis, use commercial credit as an alternative source of funding, endorsing the hypothesis of substitution between trade credit and bank credit.

Implicações do contexto político-legal para o lançamento de novas iniciativas sociais em Portugal

O propósito deste artigo é compreender se a existência de um ambiente político-legal favorável pode influenciar o lançamento de novas iniciativas de empreendedorismo social em Portugal. A investigação adota uma metodologia quantitativa. Os dados primários foram recolhidos através de um inquérito por questionário, on-line, enviado aos responsáveis que estiveram na base da constituição das Organizações Não-Governamentais de Cooperação para o Desenvolvimento existentes em Portugal, bem como aos responsáveis pelos projetos, que à data do inquérito, se encontravam cotados na Bolsa de Valores Sociais. No teste das hipóteses de investigação foram utilizadas técnicas de análise descritiva, técnicas de redução de dados (análise fatorial por componentes principais), e o teste t-student. Os resultados revelaram que um ambiente político-legal favorável tem uma importância baixa na decisão de lançar uma nova iniciativa social. Os resultados obtidos encontram suporte para o facto de muitos empreendedores sociais tenderem a localizar as suas atividades em ambientes político-legais desfavoráveis, contribuindo deste modo para a atenuação das assimetrias sociais e económicas entre as regiões do território nacional.