A robust approach to design a single facility layout plan in dynamic manufacturing environments using a permutation-based genetic algorithm

During the past few decades, developing efficient methods to solve dynamic facility layout problems has been focused on significantly by practitioners and researchers. More specifically meta-heuristic algorithms, especially genetic algorithm, have been proven to be increasingly helpful to generate sub-optimal solutions for large-scale dynamic facility layout problems. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of the manufacturing factors in addition to the scale of the layout problem calls for a mixed genetic algorithm–robust approach that could provide a single unlimited layout design. The present research aims to devise a customized permutation-based robust genetic algorithm in dynamic manufacturing environments that is expected to be generating a unique robust layout for all the manufacturing periods. The numerical outcomes of the proposed robust genetic algorithm indicate significant cost improvements compared to the conventional genetic algorithm methods and a selective number of other heuristic and meta-heuristic techniques.

Food security in welfare capitalism: Comparing social entitlements to food in Australia and Norway

The concept of food security is often anchored in popular understandings of the challenge to produce and supply enough food. However, decades of policies for intensive agriculture have not alleviated hunger and malnutrition, with an absence of food security featuring in both economically developing and developed nations. Despite perceptions that the economic growth in advanced, capitalist societies will ensure freedom from hunger, this is not universal across so-called ‘wealthy nations’. To explore the dynamics of food security in economically developed countries, this paper considers institutional approaches to domestic food security primarily through responses to poverty and welfare entitlements, and, secondarily, through food relief. Through the lens of social entitlements to food and their formation under various expressions of welfare capitalism, we highlight how the specific institutional settings of two economically developed nations, Australia and Norway, respond to uncertain or insufficient access to food. Whilst Norway's political agenda on agricultural support, food pricing regulation and universal social security support offers a robust, although indirect, safety net in ensuring entitlements to food, Australia's neoliberal trajectory means that approaches to food security are ad hoc and rely on a combination of self-help, charitable and market responses. Despite its extensive food production Australia appears less capable of ensuring food security for all its inhabitants compared to the highly import-dependent Norway.

Vascular growth factors and progenitor cells in cardiac allograft arteriosclerosis

Heart transplantation is the only therapeutic modality for many end-stage heart diseases but poor long-term survival remains a challenging problem. This is mainly due to the development of cardiac allograft arteriosclerosis (TxCAD) that is an accelerated form of coronary artery disease. Both traditional cardiovascular and transplantation-related risk factors for TxCAD have been identified but options for therapy are limited. TxCAD involves dysfunction of cardiac allograft vascular cells. Activated endothelial cells (EC) regulate allograft inflammation and secrete smooth muscle cell (SMC) growth factors. In turn, SMC and their progenitors invade the intima of the injured vessels and occlude the affected coronary arteries. Different vascular growth factors have to be delicately regulated in normal vascular development. In the present study, experimental heterotopic transplantation models were used to study the role of angiogenic and pro-inflammatory vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), EC growth factor angiopoietin (Ang), and SMC mitogen platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) in the development of TxCAD. Pharmacological and gene transfer approaches were used to target these growth factors and to assess their therapeutic potential. This study shows that alloimmune response in heart transplants upregulates VEGF expression, and induces allograft angiogenesis that involves donor-derived primitive EC. Intracoronary adenoviral VEGF gene transfer increased macrophage infiltration, intimal angiogenesis and TxCAD. VEGF inhibition with PTK787 decreased allograft inflammation and TxCAD, and simultaneous PDGF inhibition with imatinib further decreased TxCAD. Specific inhibition of two VEGF-receptors (VEGFR) decreased allograft inflammation and TxCAD, and VEGFR-2 inhibition normalized the density of primitive and mature capillaries in the allografts. Adenovirus-mediated transient Ang1 expression in the allograft had anti-inflammatory and anti-arteriosclerotic effects. Adeno-associated virus (AAV)-mediated prolonged Ang1 or Ang2 expression had similar anti-inflammatory effects. However, AAV-Ang1 activated allograft SMC whereas AAV-Ang2 had no effects on SMC activation and decreased the development of TxCAD. These studies indicate an interplay of inflammation, angiogenesis and arteriosclerosis in cardiac allografts, and show that vascular growth factors are important regulators in the process. Also, VEGF inhibition, PDGF inhibition and angiopoietin therapy with clinically-relevant pharmacological agents or novel gene therapy approaches may counteract vascular dysfunction in cardiac allografts, and have beneficial effects on the survival of heart transplant patients in the future.

Human and pathogen factors associated with chlamydia trachomatis-related infertility in women

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted pathogen worldwide. Infection can result in serious reproductive pathologies, including pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility, in women. However, the processes that result in these reproductive pathologies have not been well defined. Here we review the evidence for the human disease burden of these chlamydial reproductive pathologies. We then review human-based evidence that links Chlamydia with reproductive pathologies in women. We present data supporting the idea that host, immunological, epidemiological, and pathogen factors may all contribute to the development of infertility. Specifically, we review the existing evidence that host and pathogen genotypes, host hormone status, age of sexual debut, sexual behavior, coinfections, and repeat infections are all likely to be contributory factors in development of infertility. Pathogen factors such as infectious burden, treatment failure, and tissue tropisms or ascension capacity are also potential contributory factors. We present four possible processes of pathology development and how these processes are supported by the published data. We highlight the limitations of the evidence and propose future studies that could improve our understanding of how chlamydial infertility in women occurs and possible future interventions to reduce this disease burden.

How terrorist campaigns end : The Rode Jeugd in the Netherlands and the Symbionese Liberation Army in the United States

This study explores the decline of terrorism by conducting source-based case studies on two left-wing terrorist campaigns in the 1970s, those of the Rode Jeugd in the Netherlands and the Symbionese Liberation Army in the United States. The purpose of the case studies is to bring more light into the interplay of different external and internal factors in the development of terrorist campaigns. This is done by presenting the history of the two chosen campaigns as narratives from the participants’ points of view, based on interviews with participants and extensive archival material. Organizational resources and dynamics clearly influenced the course of the two campaigns, but in different ways. This divergence derives at least partly from dissimilarities in organizational design and the incentive structure. Comparison of even these two cases shows that organizations using terrorism as a strategy can differ significantly, even when they share ideological orientation, are of the same size and operate in the same time period. Theories on the dynamics of terrorist campaigns would benefit from being more sensitive to this. The study also highlights that the demise of a terrorist organization does not necessarily lead to the decline of the terrorist campaign. Therefore, research should look at the development of terrorist activity beyond the lifespan of a single organization. The collective ideological beliefs and goals functioned primarily as a sustaining force, a lens through which the participants interpreted all developments. On the other hand, it appears that the role of ideology should not be overstated. Namely, not all participants in the campaigns under study fully internalized the radical ideology. Rather, their participation was mainly based on their friendship with other participants. Instead of ideology per se, it is more instructive to look at how those involved described their organization, themselves and their role in the revolutionary struggle. In both cases under study, the choice of the terrorist strategy was not merely a result of a cost-benefit calculation, but an important part of the participants’ self-image. Indeed, the way the groups portrayed themselves corresponded closely with the forms of action that they got involved in. Countermeasures and the lack of support were major reasons for the decline of the campaigns. However, what is noteworthy is that the countermeasures would not have had the same kind of impact had it not been for certain weaknesses of the groups themselves. Moreover, besides the direct impact the countermeasures had on the campaign, equally important was how they affected the attitudes of the larger left-wing community and the public in general. In this context, both the attitudes towards the terrorist campaign and the authorities were relevant to the outcome of the campaigns.

Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The results show that the influence of community intervention factors (e.g. use of water efficient appliances and rainwater tanks) on water demand are among the most significant. The result also confirmed that the community intervention programmes and water pricing policy together can play a noticeable role in reducing the overall water demand. On the other hand, the influence of rainfall on water demand is found to be very limited, while temperature shows some degree of correlation with water demand. The results of this study would help water authorities to plan for effective water demand management strategies and to develop a water demand forecasting model with appropriate climatic factors to achieve sustainable water resources management. The methodology developed in this paper can be adapted to other water supply systems to identify the influential factors in water demand modelling and to devise an effective demand management strategy.

Pre- and post-copulatory sexual selection in the least killifish, Heterandria formosa

It has been only recently realized that sexual selection does not end at copulation but that post-copulatory processes are often important in determining the fitness of individuals. In this thesis, I experimentally studied both pre- and post-copulatory sexual selection in the least killifish, Heterandria formosa. I found that this species suffers from severe inbreeding depression in male reproductive behaviour, offspring viability and offspring maturation times. Neither sex showed pre-copulatory inbreeding avoidance but when females mated with their brothers, less sperm were retrieved from their reproductive system compared to the situation when females mated with unrelated males. Whether the difference in sperm numbers is due to female or male effect could not be resolved. Based on theory, females should be more eager to avoid inbreeding than males in this species, because females invest more in their offspring than males do. Inbreeding seems to be an important part of this species biology and the severe inbreeding depression has most likely selected for the evolution of the post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance mechanism that I found. In addition, I studied the effects of polyandry on female reproductive success. When females mated with more than one male, they were more likely to get pregnant. However, I also found a cost of polyandry. The offspring of females mated to four males took longer to reach sexual maturity compared to the offspring of monandrous females. This cost may be explained by parent-offspring conflict over maternal resource allocation. In another experiment, in which within-brood relatedness was manipulated, offspring sizes decreased over time when within-brood relatedness was low. This result is partly in accordance with the kinship theory of genomic imprinting. When relatedness decreases, offspring are expected to be less co-operative and demand fewer resources from their mother, which leads to impaired development. In the last chapter of my thesis, I show that H. formosa males do not prefer large females as in other Poeciliidae species. I suggest that males view smaller females as more profitable mates because those are more likely virgin. In conclusion, I found both pre- and post-copulatory sexual selection to be important factors in determining reproductive success in H. formosa.

Regulation of extracellular matrix genes by arecoline in primary gingival fibroblasts requires epithelial factors

Background and Objective: Oral submucous fibrosis, a disease of collagen disorder, has been attributed to arecoline present in the saliva of betel quid chewers. However, the molecular basis of the action of arecoline in the pathogenesis of oral submucous fibrosis is poorly understood. The basic aim of our study was to elucidate the mechanism underlying the action of arecoline on the expression of genes in oral fibroblasts. Material and Methods: Human keratinocytes (HaCaT cells) and primary human gingival fibroblasts were treated with arecoline in combination with various pathway inhibitors, and the expression of transforming growth factor-beta isoform genes and of collagen isoforms was assessed using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction analysis. Results: We observed the induction of transforming growth factor-beta2 by arecoline in HaCaT cells and this induction was found to be caused by activation of the M-3 muscarinic acid receptor via the induction of calcium and the protein kinase C pathway. Most importantly, we showed that transforming growth factor-beta2 was significantly overexpressed in oral submucous fibrosis tissues (p = 0.008), with a median of 2.13 (n = 21) compared with 0.75 (n = 18) in normal buccal mucosal tissues. Furthermore, arecoline down-regulated the expression of collagens 1A1 and 3A1 in human primary gingival fibroblasts; however these collagens were induced by arecoline in the presence of spent medium of cultured human keratinocytes. Treatment with a transforming growth factor-beta blocker, transforming growth factor-beta1 latency-associated peptide, reversed this up-regulation of collagen, suggesting a role for profibrotic cytokines, such as transforming growth factor-beta, in the induction of collagens. Conclusion: Taken together, our data highlight the importance of arecoline-induced epithelial changes in the pathogenesis of oral submucous fibrosis.

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

A Critical Evaluation of the MARS Treatment in Finland

The Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System (MARS) is an extracorporeal albumin dialysis device which is used in the treatment of liver failure patients. This treatment was first utilized in Finland in 2001, and since then, over 200 patients have been treated. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the impact of the MARS treatment on patient outcome, the clinical and biochemical variables, as well as on the psychological and economic aspects of the treatment in Finland. This thesis encompasses 195 MARS-treated patients (including patients with acute liver failure (ALF), acute-on-chronic liver failure (AOCLF) and graft failure), and a historical control group of 46 ALF patients who did not undergo MARS. All patients received a similar standard medical therapy at the same intensive care unit. The baseline data (demographics, laboratory and clinical variables) and MARS treatment-related and health-related quality-of-life data were recorded before and after treatment. The direct medical costs were determined for a period of 3.5 years.Additionally, the outcome of patients (survival, native liver recovery and need for liver transplantation) and survival predicting factors were investigated. In the outcome analysis, for the MARS-treated ALF patients, their 6-month survival (75% vs. 61%, P=0.07) and their native liver recovery rate (49% vs. 17%, P<0.001) were higher, and their need for transplantations was lower (29% vs. 57%, P= 0.001) than for the historical controls. However, the etiological distribution of the ALF patients referred to our unit has changed considerably over the past decade and the percentage of patients with a more favorable prognosis has increased. The etiology of liver failure was the most important predictor of the outcome. Other survival predicting factors in ALF included hepatic encephalopathy, the coagulation factors and the liver enzyme levels prior to MARS treatment. In terms of prognosis, the MARS treatment of the cirrhotic AOCLF patient seems meaningful only when the patient is eligible for transplantation. The MARS treatment appears to halt the progression of encephalopathy and reduce the blood concentration of neuroactive amino acids, albumin-bound and water-soluble toxins. In general, the effects of the MARS treatment seem to stabilize the patients, thus allowing additional time either for the native liver to recover, or for the patients to endure the prolonged waiting for transplantation. Furthermore, for the ALF patients, the MARS treatment appeared to be less costly and more cost-efficient than the standard medical therapy alone. In conclusion, the MARS treatment appears to have a beneficial effect on the patient outcome in ALF and in those AOCLF patients who can be bridged to transplantation.

Growth factor induction in intervertebral disc tissue: Observations in basic mechanisms of disc degeneration and rearrangement

The intervertebral disc is composed of concentrically arranged components: annulus fibrosus, the transition zone, and central nucleus pulposus. The major disc cell type differs in various parts of the intervertebral disc. In annulus fibrosus a spindle shaped fibroblast-like cell mainly dominates, whereas in central nucleus pulposus the more rounded chondrocyte-like disc cell is the major cell type. At birth the intervertebral disc is well vascularized, but during childhood and adolescence blood vessels become smaller and less numerous. The adult intervertebral disc is avascular and is nourished via the cartilage endplates. On the other hand, degenerated and prolapsed intervertebral discs are again vascularized, and show many changes compared to normal discs, including: nerve ingrowth, change in collagen turnover, and change in water content. Furthermore, the prolapsed intervertebral disc tissue has a tendency to decrease in size over time. Growth factors are polypeptides which regulate cell growth, extracellular matrix protease activity, and vascularization. Oncoproteins c-Fos and c-Jun heterodimerize, forming the AP-1 transcription factor which is expressed in activated cells. In this thesis the differences of growth factor expression in normal intervertebral disc, the degenerated intervertebral disc and herniated intervertebral disc were analyzed. Growth factors of particular interest were basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF or FGF-2), platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ). Cell activation was visualized by the expression of the AP-1 transcription promoters c-Fos and c-Jun. The expression was shown with either mono- or polyclonal antibodies by indirect avidin-biotin-peroxidase immunohistochemical staining method. The normal control material was collected from a tissue bank of five organ donors. The degenerated disc material was from twelve patients operated on for painful degenerative disc disease, and herniated disc tissue material was obtained from 115 patients operated on for sciatica. Normal control discs showed only TGFβ immunopositivity. All other factors studied were immunonegative in the control material. Prolapsed disc material was immunopositive for all factors studied, and this positivity was located either in the disc cells or in blood vessels. Furthermore, neovascularization was noted. Disc cell immunoreaction was shown in chondrocyte-like disc cells or in fibroblast-like disc cells, the former being expressed especially in conglomerates (clusters of disc cells). TGFβ receptor induction was prominent in prolapsed intervertebral disc tissue. In degenerated disc material, the expression of growth factors was analyzed in greater detail in various parts of the disc: nucleus pulposus, anterior annulus fibrosus and posterior annulus fibrosus. PDGF did not show any immunoreactivity, whereas all other studied growth factors were localized either in chondrocyte-like disc cells, often forming clusters, in fibroblast-like disc cells, or in small capillaries. Many of the studied degenerated discs showed tears in the posterior region of annulus fibrosus, but expression of immunopositive growth factors was detected throughout the entire disc. Furthermore, there was a difference in immunopositive cell types for different growth factors. The main conclusion of the thesis, supported by all substudies, is the occurrence of growth factors in disc cells. They may be actively participating in a network regulating disc cell growth, proliferation, extracellular matrix turnover, and neovascularization. Chondrocyte-like disc cells, in particular, expressed growth factors and oncoproteins, highlighting the importance of this cell type in the basic pathophysiologic events involved in disc degeneration and disc rearrangement. The thesis proposes a hypothesis for cellular remodelling in intervertebral disc tissue. In summary, the model presents an activation pattern of different growth factors at different intervertebral disc stages, mechanisms leading to neovascularization of the intervertebral disc in pathological conditions, and alteration of disc cell shape, especially in annulus fibrosus. Chondrocyte-like disc cells become more numerous, and these cells are capable of forming clusters, which appear to be regionally active within the disc. The alteration of the phenotype of disc cells expressing growth factors from fibroblast-like disc cells to chondrocyte-like cells in annulus fibrosus, and the numerous expression of growth factor expressing disc cells in nucleus pulposus, may be a key element both during pathological degeneration of the intervertebral disc, and during the healing process after trauma.

Nash equilibrium based semantic cache in mobile sensor grid database systems

Mobile applications are being increasingly deployed on a massive scale in various mobile sensor grid database systems. With limited resources from the mobile devices, how to process the huge number of queries from mobile users with distributed sensor grid databases becomes a critical problem for such mobile systems. While the fundamental semantic cache technique has been investigated for query optimization in sensor grid database systems, the problem is still difficult due to the fact that more realistic multi-dimensional constraints have not been considered in existing methods. To solve the problem, a new semantic cache scheme is presented in this paper for location-dependent data queries in distributed sensor grid database systems. It considers multi-dimensional constraints or factors in a unified cost model architecture, determines the parameters of the cost model in the scheme by using the concept of Nash equilibrium from game theory, and makes semantic cache decisions from the established cost model. The scenarios of three factors of semantic, time and locations are investigated as special cases, which improve existing methods. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the semantic cache scheme presented in this paper for distributed sensor grid database systems.

Key Factors Influencing Economic Relationships and Communication in Finnish Food Chains

The aim of this report is to discuss the role of the relationship type and communication in two Finnish food chains, namely the pig meat-to-sausage (pig meat chain) and the cereal-to-rye bread (rye chain) chains. Furthermore, the objective is to examine those factors influencing the choice of a relationship type and the sustainability of a business relationship. Altogether 1808 questionnaires were sent to producers, processors and retailers operating in these two chains of which 224 usable questionnaires were returned (the response rate being 12.4%). The great majority of the respondents (98.7%) were small businesses employing less than 50 people. Almost 70 per cent of the respondents were farmers. In both chains, formal contracts were stated to be the most important relationship type used with business partners. Although for many businesses written contracts are a common business practice, the essential role of the contracts was the security they provide regarding the demand/supply and quality issues. Relative to the choice of the relationship types, the main difference between the two chains emerged especially with the prevalence of spot markets and financial participation arrangements. The usage of spot markets was significantly more common in the rye chain when compared to the pig meat chain, while, on the other hand, financial participation arrangements were much more common among the businesses in the pig meat chain than in the rye chain. Furthermore, the analysis showed that most of the businesses in the pig meat chain claimed not to be free to choose the relationship type they use. Especially membership in a co-operative and practices of a business partner were mentioned as the reasons limiting this freedom of choice. The main business relations in both chains were described as having a long-term orientation and being based on formal written contracts. Typical for the main business relationships was also that they are not based on the existence of the key persons only; the relationship would remain even if the key people left the business. The quality of these relationships was satisfactory in both chains and across all the stakeholder groups, though the downstream processors and the retailers had a slightly more positive view on their main business partners than the farmers and the upstream processors. The businesses operating in the pig meat chain seemed also to be more dependent on their main business relations when compared to the businesses in the rye chain. Although the communication means were rather similar in both chains (the phone being the most important), there was some variation between the chains concerning the communication frequency necessary to maintain the relationship with the main business partner. In short, the businesses in the pig meat chain seemed to appreciate more frequent communication with their main business partners when compared to the businesses in the rye chain. Personal meetings with the main business partners were quite rare in both chains. All the respondent groups were, however, fairly satisfied with the communication frequency and information quality between them and the main business partner. The business cultures could be argued to be rather hegemonic among the businesses both in the pig meat and rye chains. Avoidance of uncertainty, appreciation of long-term orientation and independence were considered important factors in the business cultures. Furthermore, trust, commitment and satisfaction in business partners were thought to be essential elements of business operations in all the respondent groups. In order to investigate which factors have an effect on the choice of a relationship type, several hypotheses were tested by using binary and multinomial logit analyses. According to these analyses it could be argued that avoidance of uncertainty and risk has a certain effect on the relationship type chosen, i.e. the willingness to avoid uncertainty increases the probability to choose stable relationships, like repeated market transactions and formal written contracts, but not necessary those, which require high financial commitment (like financial participation arrangements). The probability of engaging in financial participation arrangements seemed to increase with long-term orientation. The hypotheses concerning the sustainability of the economic relations were tested by using structural equation model (SEM). In the model, five variables were found to have a positive and statistically significant impact on the sustainable economic relationship construct. Ordered relative to their importance, those factors are: (i) communication quality, (ii) personal bonds, (iii) equal power distribution, (iv) local embeddedness and (v) competition.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Prospects for wind energy utilisation in Karnataka State

An examination of the data available at 22 meteorological stations in Karnataka State shows that wind velocities in the State as a whole are neither spectacularly high nor negligibly low. The highest winds (annual mean of around 13 km/hr) are experienced in parts of the northern maidan region of the State (Gulbarga, Raichur and Bidar districts) and in Bangalore. The winds are strongly seasonal: typically, the five monsoon months May-September account for about 80% of the annual wind energy flux. Although the data available are inadequate to make precise estimates, they indicate that the total wind energy potential of the State is about an order of magnitude higher than the current electrical energy consumption. The possible exploitation of wind energy for applications in rural areas therefore requires serious consideration, but it is argued that to be successful it is essential to formulate an integrated and carefully planned programme. The output of current windpumps needs to be increased; a doubling should be feasible by the design of suitable load-matching devices. The first cost has to be reduced by careful design, by the use of local materials and skills and by employing a labour-intensive technology. A consideration of the agricultural factors in the northern maidan region of the State shows that there is likely to be a strong need for mechanical assistance in supplemental and life-saving irrigation for the dry crops characteristic of the area. A technological target for a windmill that could find applications in this area would be one with a rotor diameter of about 10 m that can lift about 10,000 litres of water per hour in winds of 10 km/hr (2.8 m/s) hourly average speed and costs less than about Rs 10,000. Although no such windmills exist as of today, the authors believe that achievement of this target is feasible. An examination of various possible scenarios for the use of windmills in this area suggests that with a windpump costing about Rs 12,000, a three hectare farm growing two dry crops a year can expect an annual return of about 150% from an initial investment of about Rs 15,000. It is concluded that it should be highly worthwhile to undertake a coordinated programme for wind energy development that will include more detailed wind surveys in the northern maidan area (as well as some others, such as the Western Ghats), the development of suitable windmill designs and a study of their applications to agriculture as well as to other fields.