Periodic variability in cetacean strandings: links to large-scale climate events

Cetacean strandings elicit much community and scientific interest, but few quantitative analyses have successfully identified environmental correlates to these phenomena. Data spanning 1920–2002, involving a total of 639 stranding events and 39 taxa groups from southeast Australia, were found to demonstrate a clear 11–13- year periodicity in the number of events through time. These data positively correlated with the regional persistence of both zonal (westerly) and meridional (southerly) winds, reflecting general long-term and large-scale shifts in sea-level pressure gradients. Periods of persistent zonal and meridional winds result in colder and presumably nutrient-rich waters being driven closer to southern Australia, resulting in increased biological activity in the water column during the spring months. These observations suggest that large-scale climatic events provide a powerful distal influence on the propensity for whales to strand in this region. These patterns provide a powerful quantitative framework for testing hypotheses regarding environmental links to strandings and provide managers with a potential predictive tool to prepare for years of peak stranding activity.

Distribution of an alien aquatic snail in relation to flow variability, human activities and water quality

1. Disturbance and anthropogenic land use changes are usually considered to be key factors facilitating biological invasions. However, specific comparisons of invasion success between sites affected to different degrees by these factors are rare.

2. In this study we related the large-scale distribution of the invading New Zealand mud snail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) in southern Victorian streams, Australia, to anthropogenic land use, flow variability, water quality and distance from the site to the sea along the stream channel.

3. The presence of P. antipodarum was positively related to an index of flow-driven disturbance, the coefficient of variability of mean daily flows for the year prior to the study.

4. Furthermore, we found that the invader was more likely to occur at sites with multiple land uses in the catchment, in the forms of grazing, forestry and anthropogenic developments (e.g. towns and dams), compared with sites with low-impact activities in the catchment. However, this relationship was confounded by a higher likelihood of finding this snail in lowland sites close to the sea.

5. We conclude that P. antipodarum could potentially be found worldwide at sites with similar ecological characteristics. We hypothesise that its success as an invader may be related to an ability to quickly re-colonise denuded areas and that population abundances may respond to increased food resources. Disturbances could facilitate this invader by creating spaces for colonisation (e.g. a possible consequence of floods) or changing resource levels (e.g. increased nutrient levels in streams with intense human land use in their catchments).

The effect of clamping sequence on dimensional variability in sheet metal assembly

Finite element (FE) modelling techniques have become a popular tool for exploring welding and clamping sequence dependence in sheet metal assemblies. In the current paper, the dimensional variability associated with different assembly clamping sequences is investigated with a FE contact modelling approach implemented in the commercial code Abaqus. A simplified channel section assembly consisting of a top hat and bottom plate is the case study investigated. Expected variation modes of bow and twist were used to simulate key variability sources in the main structural component under investigation; the top hat of the channel section. It was found that final assembly variability can change considerably depending on clamp sequence selection. It was also found that different clamp sequences can control particular modes of variation better than others, and that there is not one particular clamping sequence that is the best for containing all variation modes. An adaptable assembly process is therefore suggested, where given the shape of input components the best available clamping sequence is selected. Comparison of the performance of the proposed adaptable clamping sequence to traditional fixed clamping sequences shows improvements for the dimensional control of variability in non-rigid components. While introducing such a method in production would require inspection of each component being assembled and investigation of the alternative clamping sequences, given access to fast and detailed dimensional inspection technology such as optical coordinate measuring machines (OCMM's), the approach shows promise for future application.

Effect of dietary omega-3 fatty acid deficiency on heart rate variability in hooded rats

Introduction: Recent reports in adult humans suggest that heart rate variability is modulated by the concentration of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) contained in blood cell membranes. Material and methods: Hurst analysis of ECG data was conducted on 12 male adult hooded (Long-Evans) rats, representing the 3rd generation to be fed diets that were either deficient in, or supplemented with, omega-3 PUFA. ECG data were obtained from surface electrodes and 4000 beats were analyzed for each animal. Results: Dietary manipulation, despite leading to large changes in tissue omega- 3 PUFA levels, did not significantly affect the complexity of heart rate dynamics, with Hurst exponent (H) values of 0.15±0.02 and 0.12±0.03, for animals fed omega- 3 fatty acid-adequate and -deficient diets, respectively. Mean heart rate was also unaffected by the diets. A power calculation revealed that about one hundred animals per group would have been required to avoid a type II error. Conclusions: According to this model of dietary PUFA manipulation, omega-3 fatty acids are unlikely to exert a large effect on the autonomic functions that control heart rate variability. Prospective studies into the effect of omega-3 fatty acids on HRV should consider the need for large sample size as estimated by the results contained in this report.

Multivariate modelling of variability in sheet metal forming

The inherent variability in incoming material and process conditions in sheet metal forming makes quality control and the maintenance of consistency extremely difficult. A single FEM simulation is successful at predicting the formability for a given system, however lacks the ability to capture the variability in an actual production process due to the numerical deterministic nature. This paper investigates a probabilistic analytical model where the variation of five input parameters and their relationship to the sensitivity of springback in a stamping process is examined. A range of sheet tensions are investigated, simulating different operating windows in an attempt to highlight robust regions where the distribution of springback is small. A series of FEM simulations were also performed, to compare with the findings from the analytical model using AutoForm Sigma v4.04 and to validate the analytical model assumptions.

Results show that an increase in sheet tension not only decreases springback, but more importantly reduces the sensitivity of the process to variation. A relative sensitivity analysis has been performed where the most influential parameters and the changes in sensitivity at various sheet tensions have been investigated. Variation in the material parameters, yield stress and n-value were the most influential causes of springback variation, when compared to process input parameters such as friction, which had a small effect. The probabilistic model presented allows manufacturers to develop a more comprehensive assessment of the success of their forming processes by capturing the effects of inherent variation.

Implications of accuracy, sensitivity, and variability of body size estimations to disordered eating

The current study was conducted to investigate the relationships between body size estimations and disordered eating symptomatology. The method of constant stimuli was used to derive three measures of self-perceived body size in 93 women: (1) accuracy of body size estimations (body image distortion); (2) sensitivity in discriminating body size within blocks of trials (body image sensitivity); and (3) variability in making body size estimations between blocks of trials (body image variability). Participants also completed measures of disordered eating. Although body image distortion correlated with dietary restraint and eating concern, body image variability accounted for additional variance in these variables, as well as variance in binge eating. The relationships involving body image variability were found to be mediated by body dissatisfaction and internalization of the thin ideal. Together, these results are consistent with the proposition that body image variability is a significant factor in disordered eating.

Exposure estimation, uncertainty and variability in occupational hygiene retrospective assessment

This thesis reports on a quantitative exposure assessment and on an analysis of the attributes of the data used in the estimations, in particular distinguishing between its uncertainty and variability. A retrospective assessment of exposure to benzene was carried out for a case control study of leukaemia in the Australian petroleum industry. The study used the mean of personal task-based measurements (Base Estimates) in a deterministic algorithm and applied factors to model back to places, times etc for which no exposure measurements were available. Mean daily exposures were estimated, on an individual subject basis, by summing the task-based exposures. These mean exposures were multiplied by the years spent on each job to provide exposure estimates in ppm-years. These were summed to provide a Cumulative Estimate for each subject. Validation was completed for the model and key inputs. Exposures were low, most jobs were below TWA of 5 ppm benzene. Exposures in terminals were generally higher than at refineries. Cumulative Estimates ranged from 0.005 to 50.9 ppm-years, with 84 percent less than 10 ppm-years. Exposure probability distributions were developed for tanker drivers using Monte Carlo simulation of the exposure estimation algorithm. The outcome was a lognormal distribution of exposure for each driver. These provide the basis for alternative risk assessment metrics e.g. the frequency of short but intense exposures which provided only a minimal contribution to the long-term average exposure but may increase risk of leukaemia. The effect of different inputs to the model were examined and their significance assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. The Base Estimates were the most important determinant of exposure in the model. The sources of variability in the measured data were examined, including the effect of having censored data and the between and within-worker variability. The sources of uncertainty in the exposure estimates were analysed and consequential improvements in exposure assessment identified. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to examine the uncertainties and variability associated with the tanker drivers' exposure assessment, to derive an estimate of the range and to put confidence intervals on the daily mean exposures. The identified uncertainty was less than the variability associated with the estimates. The traditional approach to exposure estimation typically derives only point estimates of mean exposure. The approach developed here allows a range of exposure estimates to be made and provides a more flexible and improved basis for risk assessment.

Inter-regional variability in environmental availability of fungicide derived copper in vineyard soils : an Australian case study

This study determined the environmental availability of copper (Cu) in Australian vineyard soils contaminated with fungicide derived Cu residues, and investigated the soil characteristics correlated with differences in Cu availability between regions. Concentrations of 0.01 M calcium chloride extractable Cu, measured in surface soils collected from 98 vineyards in 10 different grape-growing regions of Australia, ranged from <0.1 to 0.94 mg/kg and accounted for 0.10−1.03% of the total Cu concentrations in the soils. Differences in the calcium chloride extractable Cu concentrations were related to the total Cu concentration and soil properties, including pH, clay, exchangeable K, silt, and calcium carbonate. The information generated from this study may prove useful in devising strategies to reduce the availability and toxicity of Cu in agricultural soils.

Spurious precision : variability in procedural validity of diagnostic procedures in psychotic disorders and implications for research and treatment

Very few studies have quantified the level of agreement among alternative diagnostic procedures that use a common set of fixed operational criteria. The authors examined the procedural validity of four independent methods of assigning DSM-III-R diagnoses of psychotic disorders. METHOD: The research was conducted as a satellite study to the DSM-IV Field Trial for Schizophrenia and Related Psychotic Disorders. The setting was the National Health and Medical Research Council Schizophrenia Research Unit's Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre, which focuses on first-episode psychosis. Consecutively admitted patients (N = 50) were assessed by independent raters who used four different procedures to determine a DSM-III-R diagnosis. These procedures were 1) the diagnostic instrument developed for the DSM-IV field trial, 2) the Royal Park Multidiagnostic Instrument for Psychosis, 3) the Munich Diagnostic Checklists, and 4) a consensus DSM-III-R diagnosis assigned by a team of clinician researchers who were expert in the use of diagnostic criteria. RESULTS: Concordance between pairs of diagnostic procedures was only moderate. Corresponding levels of percent agreement, however, ranged from 66% to 76%, with converse misclassification rates of 24%-34% (assuming one procedure to be "correct"). CONCLUSIONS: These findings have significant research and clinical implications. Despite the introduction of operationally defined diagnoses, there remained an appreciable level of differential classification or misclassification arising from variability in the method of assigning the diagnostic criteria rather than the criteria themselves. Such misclassification may impede neurobiological research and have harmful clinical effects on patients with first-episode psychosis.

Little Penguin (Eudyptula minor) variability in south-eastern Australia

This research examined the ecological, morphometric and genetic variability of the Little Penguin (Eudyptula minor) between seven colonies in south-eastern Australia. Significant differences in breeding ecology and morphology were noted for birds between colonies. However, most colonies were genetically homogeneous with respect to each other, with the exception of the Kangaroo Island colony.

Day-to-day and seasonal variability of physical activity during school recess

Objective : Children's physical activity levels are difficult to establish on a day-to-day or season-to-season basis. Most studies have attempted to measure reliability in habitual settings. This study investigated the variability in children's physical activity during recess.

Methods : Fifteen boys and 19 girls (aged 6 to 11 years) from 2 schools in North West England wore heart rate monitors for 5 consecutive days in summer and winter terms to assess day-to-day and seasonal variability during school recess. Data were collected in 2004. Repeated measures ANOVA's and intraclass correlations (ICC) analysed the day-to-day and seasonal variability in children's moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA) and vigorous physical activity (VPA) data.

Results : There were no significant differences in children's MVPA and VPA across days and seasons. ICCs for MVPA across 2 days ranged from 0.75 to 0.85 in summer, and from 0.53 to 0.81 in winter. Three-day MVPA ICCs were 0.83 in summer and 0.71 in winter.

Conclusions : The results revealed no significant variation in children's recess physical activity levels across days and seasons. Whilst children were free to choose their recess activities in school, the results suggested that children were relatively consistent in their choices, limiting physical activity variability.

Reliability and variability of day-to-day vault training measures in artistic gymnastics

Inter-day training reliability and variability in artistic gymnastics vaulting was determined using a customised infra-red timing gate and contact mat timing system. Thirteen Australian high performance gymnasts (eight males and five females) aged 11-23 years were assessed during two consecutive days of normal training. Each gymnast completed a number of vault repetitions per daily session. Inter-day variability of vault run-up velocities (at -18 to -12 m, -12 to -6 m, -6 to -2 m, and -2 to 0 m from the nearest edge of the beat board), and board contact, pre-flight, and table contact times were determined using mixed modelling statistics to account for random (within-subject variability) and fixed effects (gender, number of subjects, number of trials). The difference in the mean (Mdiff) and Cohen's effect sizes for reliability assessment and intra-class correlation coefficients, and the coefficient of variation percentage (CV%) were calculated for variability assessment. Approach velocity (-18 to -2 m, CV = 2.4-7.8%) and board contact time (CV = 3.5%) were less variable measures when accounting for day-to-day performance differences, than pre-flight time (CV = 17.7%) and table contact time (CV = 20.5%). While pre-flight and table contact times are relevant training measures, approach velocity and board contact time are more reliable when quantifying vaulting performance.