Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

The influence of CD 4+t cells, hiv disease stage and zidovudine on hiv isolation in Bahia, Brazil

HIV-l isolation was attempted on 72 individuais, including persons with knoum HIV infection and five without proven HIV infection but with indeterminate Western blot patterns, as well as on low-risk HIV seronegative persons. The ahility to detect HIV- 1 frorn culture supernatant by p24 antigen capture assay was evaluated by segregating patients by absolute CD4+ cell counts, clinicai stage of disease, p24 antigenemia and zidovudine use. The likelihood of a p24 positive HIV culture was highest among patients with CD4+ T-cell counts below 200/ul and patients with advanced clinical disease. Use of zidovudine did not affect the rate ofHIV positwity in cultures.

HIV genotyping among female sex workers in the State of Santa Catarina

The objective of this study was to investigate the frequency of HIV infection among female sex workers in the port area of Imbituba (State of Santa Catarina), and to identify the viral subtype and its susceptibility to antiretroviral medications. Ninety women were interviewed between December 2003 and February 2004. Six (6.7%) were HIV-positive. Genotyping for HIV, performed on four samples, detected subtype C in three of them, which is predominant in Africa and Asia, and subtype B in one of them, which is prevalent in Brazil, USA and Europe. The results suggest that the Port of Imbituba may be one of the gateways for HIV-1 subtype C to enter Brazil, and for its dissemination to the rest of the country and the Mercosul area, along the highway BR-101. This points towards the need for preventive work to reduce the introduction and dissemination of HIV subtype C in Brazil.

Gender influence on treatment of chronic hepatitis C genotype 1

INTRODUCTION: Although various studies have been published regarding the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with peginterferon (Peg-IFN) and ribavirin, little is known regarding the real impact of gender on the characteristics that influence the effectiveness and safety of antiviral treatment for CHC patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of gender on HCV treatment outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective analytical study was conducted among selected carriers of CHC genotype 1, who were treated with Peg-IFN α-2b at a dose of 1.5 μg/kg or Peg-IFN α-2a at a dose of 180 μg/week plus a ribavirin dose of 1,000-1,250 mg/day, according to weight, between 2001 and 2007. RESULTS: Among 181 patients undergoing treatment, the mean age was 46.4 ± 11.0 years and 46% were women. At baseline, 32% of the patients had advanced fibrosis (F3-F4 Scheuer), and 83% of the subjects had viral load > 400,000 IU/ml, without significant difference between the genders (p = 0.428 and p = 0.452, respectively). When compared with men, women had higher incidence of many adverse events such as anemia (p < 0.001) and higher need for dose reduction, for both Peg-IFN (p = 0.004) and ribavirin (p = 0.006). However, the rate of sustained virological response (SVR) did not differ between the genders: 45% (female) vs 41% (male); p=0.464. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that women and men react differently to combined therapy, especially in relation to the incidence of adverse events and the need for dose modification. Nevertheless, these differences do not influence the SVR rate.

Papilomavírus humano: prevalência e genótipos encontrados em mulheres HIV positivas e negativas, em um centro de referência no extremo Sul do Brasil

INTRODUÇÃO: O objetivo deste estudo foi detectar a presença do papilomavírus humano e verificar a prevalência e distribuição dos genótipos HPV-6, -11, -16 e -18 em mulheres HIV-1 positivas e negativas. MÉTODOS: Analisou-se amostras de secreção cervical de 98 mulheres por reação em cadeia da polimerase nested para presença do HPV e tipo-específica para detecção dos genótipos, sendo estes confirmados por análise dos fragmentos de restrição. Realizou-se os testes do qui-quadrado e Fisher para a análise estatística. RESULTADOS: O DNA-HPV foi observado em 66,3% das amostras analisadas, 76,4% no grupo HIV positivo e 60% no grupo HIV negativo (p=0,1). Uma prevalência maior de infecção viral por genótipos oncogênicos foi observada no grupo de pacientes HIV positivo (65,2%) quando comparado ao grupo HIV negativo (28,6%), (p=0,006), sendo HPV-16 foi o mais frequente nos dois grupos, seguido pelo HPV-18. CONCLUSÕES: Sugere-se que mulheres HIV positivas apresentam maior probabilidade de se infectar por genótipos oncogênicos de HPV, ressaltando a importância de um programa de rastreamento e diagnóstico diferenciado para este grupo.

Lipodystrophy in HIV/AIDS patients with different levels of physical activity while on antiretroviral therapy

INTRODUCTION: Lipodystrophy is related to the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and can cause aesthetic stigma and increase the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases. Physical activity may be a valid alternative for the treatment and prevention of lipodystrophy. However, few studies address this issue. The objective of this study was to assess lipodystrophy related to highly active antiretroviral therapy in HIV/AIDS patients with different physical activity habits. METHODS: The sample was composed of 42 HIV/AIDS patients taking HAART medication who were visiting the Counseling and Testing Center (CTC) in Presidente Prudente. The level of physical activity was obtained using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ); lipodystrophy was diagnosed using a self-report questionnaire that was administered to the patient and then followed up by medical confirmation. The percentage of trunk fat was estimated by dual X-Ray absorptiometry (DEXA). Information about sex, age, length of HAART treatment, CD4+ T lymphocyte count (CD4) and viral load was also collected. RESULTS: A higher prevalence of lipodystrophy was observed in the sedentary group when compared to the physically active group, which indicates that physical activity may be a protective factor in relation to the occurrence of lipodystrophy. The group that had a higher CD4 had a higher proportion of lipodystrophy and a higher proportion of younger and physically active individuals. The patients with lipodystrophy had a higher percentage of trunk fat and were more sedentary than active individuals. CONCLUSIONS: A physically active lifestyle has a protective effect against the occurrence of lipodystrophy related to HAART.

Evaluation of laboratory markers of progression of HIV disease to death

INTRODUCTION: One of the important current problems in HIV/AIDS infection is the establishment of epidemiological and laboratorial prognostic parameters during patient follow-up. This study aimed at analyzing the evolution of laboratory tests: CD4 lymphocyte count, viral load, hemoglobin (Hb), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and the epidemiological variables sex and age as prognostic factors for survival in progression to death among AIDS patients. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted using analysis of medical records, and prospective 24-month follow-up of patients with HIV/ AIDS attended at the President Vargas Hospital Outpatient Clinic, a reference center in HIV/ AIDS attendance in the State of Maranhão, Brazil. The study analyzed patients aged 10 to 60 years old, who manifested AIDS and who were not using antiretroviral therapy or had used it for less than 5 years. The Chi-square test was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: The sample included 100 patients - 57 were current outpatients, and 43 had died. The variables viral load (p=0.726), ALT (p=0.314), sex (p=0.687), and age (p=0.742) were analyzed, and no evidence of association between them and worst prognosis was observed. CONCLUSIONS: A significant relation was verified between low Hb levels (p=0.000) and CD4 (p=0.000) and shorter survival.

Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in HIV and sporotrichosis coinfection: report of two cases and review of the literature

We report 2 cases of patients with immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) associated with cutaneous disseminated sporotrichosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection. The patients received specific treatment for sporotrichosis. However, after 4 and 5 weeks from the beginning of antiretroviral therapy, both patients experienced clinical exacerbation of skin lesions despite increased T CD4+ cells (T cells cluster of differentiation 4 positive) count and decreased viral load. Despite this exacerbation, subsequent mycological examination after systemic corticosteroid administration did not reveal fungal growth. Accordingly, they were diagnosed with IRIS. However, the sudden withdrawal of the corticosteroids resulted in the recurrence of IRIS symptoms. No serious adverse effects could be attributed to prednisone. We recommend corticosteroid treatment for mild-to-moderate cases of IRIS in sporotrichosis and HIV coinfection with close follow-up.

Clinical, demographic, and epidemiologic characteristics of hepatitis B virus-infected patients at a tertiary public hospital in Presidente Prudente, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Few studies have addressed the primary characteristics of patients infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) in the general population, especially those living in small- and medium-sized cities in Brazil. We aimed to determine the clinical, demographic, and epidemiologic characteristics of patients diagnosed with HBV who were followed up at an infectious diseases clinic of a public hospital in State of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Medical records of patients aged >18 years and diagnosed with HBV infection between January 2000 and December 2013 were reviewed. RESULTS: Seventy-five patients were enrolled with male-female main infection-associated risk factors; 9 (12%) were co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), 5 (6.7%) with hepatitis C virus (HCV), and 3 (4%) were co-infected with both HIV and HCV. Antiviral HBV therapy was applied in 21 (28%) patients and tenofovir monotherapy was the most prescribed medication. After approximately 2 years of antiviral treatment, the HBV-DNA viral load was undetectable in 12 (92.3%) patients and lower levels of alanine aminotransferase were found in these patients. CONCLUSIONS: Over a 13-year interval, very few individuals infected with HBV were identified, highlighting the barriers for caring for patients with HBV in developing countries. New measures need to be implemented to complement curative practices.

Depressão em pacientes HIV positivos: a realidade de um hospital português

Aims: Depression is the most common psychiatric disorder among people infected with HIV. This study aims to characterize the Hospital of Joaquim Urbano population of HIV-infected patients’ profile regarding depressive symptoms and whether they correlate with the analytical parameters most frequently evaluated in the context of infection by this virus – HIV viral load, CD4+ count and CD4+ percentage. Methods: We conducted an observational descriptive and analytical study. The participants’ level of depressive symptoms was assessed with the Beck Depression Inventory. The medical and psychiatric history and the analytical values of viral load, CD4+ count and CD4+ percentage were obtained by consulting the participants’ clinical processes. Results: A prevalence of 65.5% in HIV-infected patients’ depressive symptoms was found, with a considerable high percentage of subjects presenting with severe symptoms (32.7%). No associations between the depressive symptoms’ levels and CD4+ count, CD4+ percentage or viral load were found. However, depressive symptoms were associated with substance abuse and education level. Conclusions: The high prevalence of depressive symptoms found in this study reinforces the importance of monitoring this type of symptoms in HIV-infected subjects. The fact that there have been no associations between depressive symptoms and the analytical parameters evaluated is in line with previous studies.

Redirecció de l'especificitat de les cél·lules T contra epítops del VIH restringit per la HLA-A2 mitjaçant transferència genética

Existeixen creixents evidències què la resposta dels limfòcits T CD8+ alpha beta citotòxics (CTLs) és un element fonamental en la infecció produïda pel VIH. Les CTLs VIH especifiques es consideren molt importants en la reducció de la càrrega viral i en la contenció de la infecció. Encara que la combinació dels antiretrovirals (HAART) ha suposat una millora considerable en la lluita contra el VIH induint una important reducció de la càrrega viral i augmentant el nombre de cèl•lules T CD4+, diverses complicacions han fet ressaltar la necessitat de noves alternatives terapèutiques. Les complicacions inclouen: manca de recuperació d’una resposta immune sòlida contra el VIH, toxicitat a llarg termini de la teràpia i el descobriment que les cèl•lules T CD4+ constitueixen un reservori pel virus. Les noves alternatives controlaran la replicació viral i reconstituiran la immunitat. L’eficàcia de la immunoteràpia cel•lular amb transferència adoptiva de CTLs virals específics s’ha provat en diferents infeccions virals humanes, incloent el VIH. Proposem una modificació de la immunoteràpia adoptiva redirigint l’especificitat de les cèl•lules T contra el VIH mitjançant la transfecció dels gens del TCR. En aquest assaig preclínic, ens aprofitarem de la tecnologia dels animals transgènics per les molècules de HLA, amb la finalitat de generar TCRs d’alta afinitat dirigits contra epitops del VIH restringits per la molècula HLA. Aquests TCRs seran induïts in vivo i seleccionats in vitro. Les cadenes alpha i beta dels TCRs VIH específics procedents de les CTLs seran clonades mitjançant tècniques de biologia molecular. Aquests TCRs VIH específics seran transferits a cèl•lules T CD8+ humanes i la seva especificitat i capacitat citolítica contra cèl•lules diana que presentin antígens de VIH-1 s’estudiaran mitjançant la combinació de diverses tècniques noves (FCC, transfecció mitjançant Nucleoefector). Finalment, una construcció retroviral adient per la seva transducció en cèl•lules T humanes s’establirà amb un TCR òptim seleccionat.

Long-Term Trends of HIV Type 1 Drug Resistance Prevalence among Antiretroviral Treatment-Experienced Patients in Switzerland.

Background. Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. Methods. On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). Results. Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. Conclusions. Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

Phenotypic heterogeneity of antigen-specific CD4 cells under different conditions of antigen persistence and antigen load

RESUME Nous n'avons pas de connaissance précise des facteurs à l'origine de l'hétérogénéité phénotypique des cellules T CD4 mémoires. Une troisième population phénotypique des cellules T CD4 mémoires, caractérisée par les marqueurs CD45RA+CCR7- a été identifiée dans cette étude. Cette population présente un état de différentiation avancée, comme en témoigne son histoire de réplication, ainsi que sa capacité de prolifération homéostatique. Les réponses des cellules T CD4 mémoires à différentes conditions de persistance et charge antigénique ont trois patterns phénotypiques différents, caractérisés par les marqueurs CD45RA et CCR7. La réponse CD4 mono -phénotypique CD45RA-CCR7+ ou CD45RA- CCR7- est associée à des conditions d'élimination de l'antigène (telle la réponse CD4 tétanos spécifique) ou à des conditions de persistance antigénique et de virémie élevée (telle la réponse HIV chronique ou la primo-infection CMV) respectivement. D'autre part, les réponses T CD4 multi -phénotypiques CD45RA-CCR7+ sont associées à des conditions d'exposition antigénique prolongée et de faible virémie (telles les infections CMV, EBV et HSV ou les infections HIV chez les long term non progressons). La réponse mono -phénotypique CD45RA- CCR7+ est propre aux cellules T CD4 secrétant de IL2, définies également comme centrales mémoires, la réponse CD45RA- CCR7- aux cellules T CD4 secrétant de l'IFNγ et finalement la réponse mufti-phénotypique aux cellules T CD4 secrétant à la fois de l'IL2 et de l' IFNγ. En conclusion, ces résultats témoignent d'une régulation de l'hétérogénéité phénotypique par l'exposition et la charge antigénique. ABSTRACT The factors responsible for the phenotypic heterogeneity of memory CD4 T cells are unclear. In the present study, we have identified a third population of memory CD4 T cells characterized as CD45RA+CCRT that, based on its replication history and the homeostatic proliferative capacity, was at an advanced stage of differentiation. Three different phenotypic patterns of memory CD4 T cell responses were delineated under different conditions of antigen (Ag) persistence and load using CD45RA and CCR7 as markers of memory T cells. Mono-phenotypic CD45RA'CCR7+ or CD45RA'CCR7' CD4 T cell responses were associated with conditions of Ag clearance (tetanus toxoid-specific CD4 T cell response) or Ag persistence and high load (chronic HIV-1 and primary CMV infections), respectively. Multi-phenotypic CD45RA CCR7+, CD45RA'CCRT and CD45RA+CCRT CD4 T cell responses were associated with protracted Ag exposure and low load (chronic CMV, EBV and HSV infections and HIV-1 infection in long-term nonprogressors). The mono-phenotypic CD45RA'CCR7+ response was typical of central memory (TCM) IL-2-secreting CD4 T cells, the mono-phenotypic CD45RA CCRT response of effector memory (TEM) IFN-γ -secreting CD4 T cells and the multi-phenotypic response of both IL-2- and IFN-γ -secreting cells. The present results indicate that the heterogeneity of different Ag-specific CD4 T cell responses is regulated by Ag exposure and Ag load.

Cohort profile: Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC).

The advent of effective combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 1996 resulted in fewer patients experiencing clinical events, so that some prognostic analyses of individual cohort studies of human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals had low statistical power. Because of this, the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) of HIV cohort studies in Europe and North America was established in 2000, with the aim of studying the prognosis for clinical events in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and the mortality of adult patients treated for HIV-1 infection. In 2002, the ART-CC collected data on more than 12,000 patients in 13 cohorts who had begun combination ART between 1995 and 2001. Subsequent updates took place in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010. The ART-CC data base now includes data on more than 70,000 patients participating in 19 cohorts who began treatment before the end of 2009. Data are collected on patient demographics (e.g. sex, age, assumed transmission group, race/ethnicity, geographical origin), HIV biomarkers (e.g. CD4 cell count, plasma viral load of HIV-1), ART regimen, dates and types of AIDS events, and dates and causes of death. In recent years, additional data on co-infections such as hepatitis C; risk factors such as smoking, alcohol and drug use; non-HIV biomarkers such as haemoglobin and liver enzymes; and adherence to ART have been collected whenever available. The data remain the property of the contributing cohorts, whose representatives manage the ART-CC via the steering committee of the Collaboration. External collaboration is welcomed. Details of contacts are given on the ART-CC website (www.art-cohort-collaboration.org).

Variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma levels during valganciclovir treatment for cytomegalovirus disease in D+/R- transplant recipients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Valganciclovir, the oral prodrug of ganciclovir, has been demonstrated equivalent to iv ganciclovir for CMV disease treatment in solid organ transplant recipients. Variability in ganciclovir exposure achieved with valganciclovir could be implicated as a contributing factor for explaining variations in the therapeutic response. This prospective observational study aimed to correlate clinical and cytomegalovirus (CMV) viral load response (DNAemia) with ganciclovir plasma concentrations in patients treated with valganciclovir for CMV infection/disease. METHODS: Seven CMV D+/R- transplant recipients (4 kidney, 2 liver and 1 heart) were treated with valganciclovir (initial dose was 900-1800 mg/day for 3-6.5 weeks, followed by 450-900 mg/day for 2-9 weeks). DNAemia was monitored by real time quantitative PCR and ganciclovir plasma concentration was measured at trough (Ctrough) and 3 h after drug administration (C3h) by HPLC. RESULTS: Four patients presented with CMV syndrome, two had CMV tissue-invasive disease after prophylaxis discontinuation, and one liver recipient was treated pre-emptively for asymptomatic rising CMV viral load 5 weeks post-transplantation in the absence of prophylaxis. CMV DNAemia decreased during the first week of treatment in all recipients except in one patient (median decrease: -1.2 log copies/mL, range: -1.8 to 0) despite satisfactory ganciclovir exposure (AUC0-12 = 48 mg.h/L, range for the 7 patients: 40-118 mg.h/L). Viral clearance was obtained in five patients after a median of time of 34 days (range: 28-82 days). Two patients had recurrent CMV disease despite adequate ganciclovir exposure (65 mg.h/L, range: 44-118 mg.h/L). CONCLUSIONS: Valganciclovir treatment for CMV infection/disease in D+/R- transplant recipients can thus result in variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma concentrations, probably correlating inversely with anti-CMV immune responses after primary infection.