A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Climate change and hunger as the challenges in the global food system

In the last decades, there has been a growing tendency towards international trade and globalisation, particularly leading to a significant increase in flows of agricultural commodities worldwide. From a macroeconomic perspective, the commodity projections are more optimistic than the previous years and the long run tendency shows an increasing demand for feedstock. However, the strong shifts of shocks and fluctuations (in terms of prices and volumes) are a concern to global food security, with the number of hungry people rising to nearly one billion. Agriculture is a main user of natural resources, and it has a strong link with rural societies and the environment. Forecasted impacts from climate change, limited productive endorsements and emerging rivals on crop production, such bio-energy, aggravate the panorama on food scarcity. In this context, it is a great challenge on farming and food systems to reduce global hunger and produce in sustainable ways adequate supplies for food, feed, and non-food uses. The main objective of this work is to question the sustainability of food and agriculture systems. It is particularly interesting to know its role and if it will be able to respond to a growing population with increasing food demand in a world where pressure on land, water and other natural resources are already evident, and, moreover, climate change will also condition and impact the outcome. Furthermore, a deeper focus will be set on developing countries, which are expected to emerge and take a leading role in the international arena. This short paper is structured as follows: Section I, “Introduction”, describes the social situation regarding hunger, Section II, “Global Context”, attempts to summarise the current scenario in the international trading scheme and present the emerging rivals for primary resources, and in Section III, “Climate Change”, presents an overview of possible changes in the sector and future perspectives in the field. Finally, in Section IV, “Conclusion”, the main conclusions are presented.

Political Economy of Global Rush for Agricultural Land: a Tract on India’s Overseas Acquisitions

This paper is an attempt to map the global land acquisitions with a focus on Indian MNCs in acquiring overseas land for agricultural purposes. It tries to outline the contemporary political economy of capital accumulation at the global level, especially, in the emerging developing economies like India and China, where the emergence of a new capitalist class has engaged itself into acquisition of land and control of other natural resources in Africa, Latin America, Eastern Europe and South East Asia, for example, water and other minerals to secure itself from the eventual losses of ongoing economic crisis and to earn profit from the volatile agricultural commodity markets. This sway of control of resources by the MNCs has got paramount State support under the helm of neoliberal policies. The paper provides scale of overseas land acquisitions at the current juncture and tries to highlight its causes and the major implications associated with it.

Individuals' (re-)action in the face of global warming

Climate change remains a major challenge for today’s and future societies due to its immense impacts on human lives and the natural environment. This thesis investigates the extent to which individuals are willing and prepared to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adjust to new climatic conditions in order to cope with the consequences of climate change and reduce the severity of potential negative impacts. The thesis thereby combines research in the fields of the private provision of environmental public goods and adaptation to climate change, which is still widely unconnected in the existing literature. The six contributions of this thesis mainly focus on microeconometric analyses using data from international surveys in China, Germany, and the USA. The main findings are: (i) A substantial share of individuals is willing to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adapt to climatic change. The engagement in both strategies is positively interrelated at the individual level and the analyses reveal hardly any evidence that adaptation activities crowd out individuals’ incentives to engage in climate protection. (ii) The main determinants of individuals’ adaptation activities seem to be the subjective risk perception as well as socio-economic and socio-demographic characteristics like age, gender, education, and income, while their climate protection efforts are found to be broadly motivated by financial advantages from these activities and additional immaterial benefits. (iii) The empirical findings also suggest a significantly positive relationship between certain climate protection activities. Substitutions are found to occur merely if one measure is perceived to be more effective in providing climate protection or if individuals have high environmental preferences. (iv) This thesis further reveals a common understanding of a (normatively) fair burden-sharing in international climate policy across citizens in China, Germany, and the USA. The highest preferences are found for the accountability principle.

Ecosystem services and adaptation for agriculture and food security: analysis of two decades (1991–2011) of financing by the Global Environment Facility

Investing in global environmental and adaptation benefits in the context of agriculture and food security initiatives can play an important role in promoting sustainable intensification. This is a priority for the Global Environment Facility (GEF), created in 1992 with a mandate to serve as financial mechanism of several multilateral environmental agreements. To demonstrate the nature and extent of GEF financing, we conducted an assessment of the entire portfolio over a period of two decades (1991–2011) to identify projects with direct links to agriculture and food security. A cohort of 192 projects and programs were identified and used as a basis for analyzing trends in GEF financing. The projects and programs together accounted for a total GEF financing of US$1,086.8 million, and attracted an additional US$6,343.5 million from other sources. The value-added of GEF financing for ecosystem services and resilience in production systems was demonstrated through a diversity of interventions in the projects and programs that utilized US$810.6 million of the total financing. The interventions fall into the following four main categories in accordance with priorities of the GEF: sustainable land management (US$179.3 million), management of agrobiodiversity (US$113.4 million), sustainable fisheries and water resource management (US$379.8 million), and climate change adaptation (US$138.1 million). By aligning GEF priorities with global aspirations for sustainable intensification of production systems, the study shows that it is possible to help developing countries tackle food insecurity while generating global environmental benefits for a healthy and resilient planet.

The role of organic farming for food security: local nexus with a global view

A convergence of factors has made food security one of the most important global issues. It has been the core concept of the Milan Expo 2015, whose title, Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life, embodied the challenge to provide the world’s growing population with a sustainable, secure supply of safe, nutritious, and affordable high-quality food using less land with lower inputs. Meeting the food security agenda using current agricultural production techniques cannot be achieved without serious degradation to the environment, including soil degradation, loss of biodiversity and climate change. Organic farming is seen as a solution to the challenge of sustainable food production, as it provides more nutritious food, with less or no pesticide residues and lower use of inputs. A limit of organic farming is its restricted capability of producing food compared to conventional agriculture, thus being an inefficient approach to food production and to food security. The authors maintain, on the basis of a scientific literature review, that organic soils tend to retain the physical, chemical and biological properties over the long term, while maintaining stable levels of productivity and thereby ensuring long-term food production and safety. Furthermore, the productivity gap of organic crops may be worked out by further investment in research and in particular into diversification techniques. Moreover, strong scientific evidence indicates that organic agricultural systems deliver greater ecosystem services and social benefits.

La atenci??n a la diversidad en la ESO : desde un enfoque global de centro a una metodolog??a de aula

Se presenta memoria final de proyecto educativo que propone la organizaci??n de la atenci??n a la diversidad en el centro trabajando el agrupamiento del alumnado, la detecci??n de necesidades y la coordinaci??n de las programaciones de los departamentos, del aula y de la tutor??a. Se realiza en el IES Sebasti??n Fern??ndez en Cartaya, Huelva. Los objetivos respecto al alumnado son: implicar activamente al alumnado en el aprendizaje; mejorar su motivaci??n; desarrollar su autoestima; fomentar el sentido de competencia personal y el af??n de superaci??n y esfuerzo; fomentar la autonom??a en el trabajo; desarrollar sus capacidades, respetando el ritmo de aprendizaje de cada uno; desarrollar estrategias cognitivas y metacognitivas para la autorregulaci??n de los procesos de aprendizaje y control de la conducta; aprender procesos de autoevaluaci??n y evaluaci??n formativa; desarrollar valores de solidaridad y cooperaci??n; desarrollar habilidades de interacci??n personal. Los objetivos en relaci??n al profesorado son: mejorar la satisfacci??n con relaci??n al trabajo; mejorar la pr??ctica docente para atender a la diversidad de nuestras aulas; crear un estilo de trabajo cooperativo para desarrollar nuestro proyecto de centro; mejorar la coordinaci??n del profesorado para que el trabajo resulte m??s eficaz; conocer y experimentar estrategias metodol??gicas que den respuestas a las necesidades educativas del alumnado; mejorar las relaciones afectivas con el alumnado; establecer relaciones m??s personalizadas; mejorar el clima de trabajo y convivencia en el centro y en el aula; aprender la metodolog??a de investigaci??n-acci??n para adquirir la formaci??n adecuada sobre la atenci??n a la diversidad. El resultado esperado: mejorar la atenci??n a la diversidad de nuestro alumnado a trav??s de una adecuada organizaci??n de centro y de una metodolog??a de aula, se ha logrado.

Programmable Self-Assembly: Constructing Global Shape using Biologically-inspire

In this thesis I present a language for instructing a sheet of identically-programmed, flexible, autonomous agents (``cells'') to assemble themselves into a predetermined global shape, using local interactions. The global shape is described as a folding construction on a continuous sheet, using a set of axioms from paper-folding (origami). I provide a means of automatically deriving the cell program, executed by all cells, from the global shape description. With this language, a wide variety of global shapes and patterns can be synthesized, using only local interactions between identically-programmed cells. Examples include flat layered shapes, all plane Euclidean constructions, and a variety of tessellation patterns. In contrast to approaches based on cellular automata or evolution, the cell program is directly derived from the global shape description and is composed from a small number of biologically-inspired primitives: gradients, neighborhood query, polarity inversion, cell-to-cell contact and flexible folding. The cell programs are robust, without relying on regular cell placement, global coordinates, or synchronous operation and can tolerate a small amount of random cell death. I show that an average cell neighborhood of 15 is sufficient to reliably self-assemble complex shapes and geometric patterns on randomly distributed cells. The language provides many insights into the relationship between local and global descriptions of behavior, such as the advantage of constructive languages, mechanisms for achieving global robustness, and mechanisms for achieving scale-independent shapes from a single cell program. The language suggests a mechanism by which many related shapes can be created by the same cell program, in the manner of D'Arcy Thompson's famous coordinate transformations. The thesis illuminates how complex morphology and pattern can emerge from local interactions, and how one can engineer robust self-assembly.

Surface Reflectance Recognition and Real-World Illumination Statistics

Humans distinguish materials such as metal, plastic, and paper effortlessly at a glance. Traditional computer vision systems cannot solve this problem at all. Recognizing surface reflectance properties from a single photograph is difficult because the observed image depends heavily on the amount of light incident from every direction. A mirrored sphere, for example, produces a different image in every environment. To make matters worse, two surfaces with different reflectance properties could produce identical images. The mirrored sphere simply reflects its surroundings, so in the right artificial setting, it could mimic the appearance of a matte ping-pong ball. Yet, humans possess an intuitive sense of what materials typically "look like" in the real world. This thesis develops computational algorithms with a similar ability to recognize reflectance properties from photographs under unknown, real-world illumination conditions. Real-world illumination is complex, with light typically incident on a surface from every direction. We find, however, that real-world illumination patterns are not arbitrary. They exhibit highly predictable spatial structure, which we describe largely in the wavelet domain. Although they differ in several respects from the typical photographs, illumination patterns share much of the regularity described in the natural image statistics literature. These properties of real-world illumination lead to predictable image statistics for a surface with given reflectance properties. We construct a system that classifies a surface according to its reflectance from a single photograph under unknown illuminination. Our algorithm learns relationships between surface reflectance and certain statistics computed from the observed image. Like the human visual system, we solve the otherwise underconstrained inverse problem of reflectance estimation by taking advantage of the statistical regularity of illumination. For surfaces with homogeneous reflectance properties and known geometry, our system rivals human performance.

Forecasting Global Temperature Variations by Neural Networks

Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984 are forecast usingsregularization networks, multilayer perceptrons and linearsautoregression. The regularization network, optimized by stochasticsgradient descent associated with colored noise, gives the bestsforecasts. For all the models, prediction errors noticeably increasesafter 1965. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that thesclimate dynamics is characterized by low-dimensional chaos and thatsthe it may have changed at some point after 1965, which is alsosconsistent with the recent idea of climate change.s

Global Depth Perception from Familiar Scene Structure

In the absence of cues for absolute depth measurements as binocular disparity, motion, or defocus, the absolute distance between the observer and a scene cannot be measured. The interpretation of shading, edges and junctions may provide a 3D model of the scene but it will not inform about the actual "size" of the space. One possible source of information for absolute depth estimation is the image size of known objects. However, this is computationally complex due to the difficulty of the object recognition process. Here we propose a source of information for absolute depth estimation that does not rely on specific objects: we introduce a procedure for absolute depth estimation based on the recognition of the whole scene. The shape of the space of the scene and the structures present in the scene are strongly related to the scale of observation. We demonstrate that, by recognizing the properties of the structures present in the image, we can infer the scale of the scene, and therefore its absolute mean depth. We illustrate the interest in computing the mean depth of the scene with application to scene recognition and object detection.

Beyond the blue horizon : the role of industry in global environmental politics

by Joanne M. Kaufman.

Piaget y la génesis del número : cuantificación global, intuición y operación.

Comprobar si se dan las tres etapas propuestas por Piaget, o cuatro según Pierre Greco, en la formación del concepto operatorio del número en el niño, tanto en el niño normal como en el niño deficiente. Analizar el proceso seguido por el niño hasta poseer el número con carácter operatorio. Determinar, si existiesen diferencias de edad en la adquisición del concepto operatorio. Establecer posibles diferencias en cuanto al sexo y nivel socioeconómico. Dos grupos: 50 niños normales de ambos sexos con edades entre los cuatro y los ocho años, del Colegio Nacional Fuentenueva de Granada; y 25 niños deficientes de ambos sexos con edades entre los seis y quince años, del Centro Provincial de Educación Especial 'Jean Piaget' de Armilla (Granada). Aplicación de tests de inteligencia, tomando como principales variables: coeficiente de inteligencia, sexo, edad. Absentismo y nivel socioeconómico. Test de inteligencia de Goodenough; test de inteligencia de Raven color; test de inteligencia de Wisc; escala de madurez mental de Columbia (CMMS). Gráficos. Resultados con niños normales: aparecen tres etapas claramente definidas en el proceso de adquisición del número por parte del niño: en una primera etapa, las relaciones percibidas no se coordinan entre sí; durante la sgunda etapa, asistimos a un esbozao de operación, más con caracter intuitivo; en la tercera etapa, cuando el niño alcanza la operación, domina la conservación, la medida, etc. de manera inmediata. Resultados con niños deficientes: existencia de tres etapas distintas en el proceso de aparición del número, con caracter operatorio en los niños deficientes: en una primera etapa, los niños consideran natural que la cantidad de líquido varía según la forma y dimensiones del recipiente; la segunda etapa aparece situada a mitad de camino entre la cantidad bruta y la cuantificación, entre la no seriación y la seriación, es una etapa intuitiva; en la tercera etapa, es cuando los niños no necesitan ya reflexionar para asegurarse de la conservación, de la medida y de la seriación. Se dan las tres etapas propuestas por Piaget en la adquisición del número con caracter operatorio, en los niños de Granada. El orden de sucesión de las etapas es constante, aunque las edades promedio pueden variar. No se encuentran diferencias acuciantes en cuanto al sexo. En el niño deficiente se da el mismo proceso de elaboración y formación del número, con carácter operatorio. En el estudio con niños normales no se encuentran diferencias entre un status y otro en el proceso de adquisición del número.

La Cultura: des de la proximitat al món global

Un estudi del sector cultural a Girona i un conveni de cooperació amb la Universitat Tecnològica Bolívar, a Colòmbia, tenen en comú el fet d'haver estat abordats des de la Càtedra Unesco de Polítiques Culturals i de Cooperació de la Universitat de Girona

Global and dominance with concentric hierarchical stimuli and orientation classification task. 'Dominancia global y local con est??mulos conc??ntricos y tareas de clasificaci??n de la orientaci??n'

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n. Resumen tambi??n en ingl??s