The impacts of trade policy reforms on the Sri Lankan economy

This dissertation presents an analysis of the impacts of trade policy reforms in Sri Lanka. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed with detailed description of the domestic production structure and foreign trade. The model is then used to investigate the effects of trade policy reforms on resource allocation and welfare.^ Prior to 1977, Sri Lanka maintained stringent control over its imports through rigid quantitative restrictions. A new economic policy reform package was introduced in 1977, and it shifted Sri Lanka's development strategy toward an export oriented policy regime. The shift of policy focus from a restrictive trade regime toward a more open trade regime is expected to have a significant impact on the volume of external trade, domestic production structure, allocation of resources, and social welfare.^ Simulations are carried out to assess the effects of three major policy reforms: (1) a devaluation of the Sri Lanka rupee, (2) a partial or a complete elimination of export duties, and (3) a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties.^ Simulation results indicate that the macroeconomic impact of a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties can be substantial. They also suggest that the resource-pull effects of a devaluation and a devaluation-cum-export duty removal policy are significant. However, the model shows that a devaluation combined with an export duty reduction is likely to be a superior strategy. ^

Tomorrow’s Silk Road: Assessing an EU-China Free Trade Agreement

The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound policy research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe. The views expressed in this book are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed to CEPS or any other institution with which they are associated or to the European Union. This book, commissioned by the Foreign Trade Association, aims to provide an independent and in-depth contribution on the status of bilateral economic exchanges and persistent trade barriers between the European Union and China. A second objective is to encourage a frank and open dialogue, based on a scientific evaluation and without prejudice, of the possibility of a preferential trade agreement between the two sides. The study was carried out by CEPS, in cooperation with the World Trade Institute at the University of Bern.

Estimating market access in non-GPA countries: A suggested methodology

The WTO’s Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) has data reporting obligations for all its Contracting Parties. Submitting such data promotes transparency in public procurement and also signals tendencies towards discrimination. However, most developing countries, especially emerging economies, are non-members of the GPA and therefore have no comparable data reporting obligations. In most cases, this has led to an absence of any reliable data on these countries’ public purchases, which poses a serious challenge in international negotiations on the subject and in examining the impact of protectionist measures in these countries’ public markets. In this short paper, we attempt to overcome these data challenges by developing a methodology to estimate the size of procurement markets in non-GPA countries as well as foreign market access therein. We also show the results from this methodology for estimating the EU’s access in select emerging economies’ public markets.

Reflections on the Preferential Liberalization of Services Trade

This paper takes stock of the forces that lie behind the recent rise of preferential agreements in services trade. Its focuses first on a number of distinguishing features of services trade that sets it apart from trade in goods and shapes trade liberalization and rule-making approaches in the services field. The paper then documents the nature, modal and sectoral incidence of the trade and investment preferences spawned by preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in services. It does so with a view to addressing the question: how “preferential” is the preferential treatment of services trade? Finally, the paper addresses a number of considerations arising from attempts to multilateralize preferential access and rule-making in services trade.

Services Procurement under the WTO’s Agreement on Government Procurement: Whither Market Access?

This paper studies the government procurement of services from foreign suppliers by conducting a statistical analysis of data submitted by Japan and Switzerland to the WTO's Committee on Government Procurement. Using several metrics, the paper examines if the WTO’s Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) has led to greater market access for foreign suppliers in services procurement. Our results indicate that despite the GPA, the proportions of services contracts awarded to foreigners have declined over time for both countries and in the absence of this decline, the value of services contracts awarded to foreign firms would have been more than 15 times higher in the case of Japan and nearly 68 times more in the case of Switzerland. We also find that for the same services categories, at least the Japanese government is not purchasing as much from abroad as it's private sector is importing from the rest of the world, a finding that further points to the home-bias in that government's public purchase decisions.

The Preferential Liberalization of Trade in Services: African Perspectives And Challenges

This chapter takes stock of the state of play of preferential trade negotiations in services in Africa. It explores the factors that lie behind the reluctance of African governments to bind service sector policy under international treaties. The chapter chronicles several ongoing initiatives aimed at deepening intra-regional trade and investment among the eight regional economic cooperation areas found on the continent. It also describes external liberalization efforts engaging Africa with the rest of the world in services trade, devoting particular attention to negotiations underway with the European Community (EC) with a view to concluding WTO-compatible Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). The chapter draws attention to several novel features of the EC-CARIFORUM EPA in the services field and discusses its possible implications for Africa’s ongoing processes of integration in services markets at both the intra- and extra-regional levels. The chapter concludes with a broader discussion of a range of policy challenges confronting African governments in designing development-enhancing strategies of engagement in services trade negotiations.

The Preferential Liberalization of Services Trade

This paper takes stock of the most recent wave of PTAs with a view to informing some of the policy choices developing countries face in negotiating preferential agreements in services. The paper documents a number of lessons in rule-making and market opening arising from the practice of preferential liberalization in services trade as seen from a sample of fifty five agreements (out of the 76 PTAs featuring services provisions that have been notified to the WTO to date). The paper asks whether and how PTAs differ from the GATS and whether such differences matter in policy terms.

The Evolution of Norms in Trade and Financial Networks in the First Global Age: the case of Simon Ruiz's network

In the 16th century, merchants and bankers gained a social influence and political relevance, due to their capacity of ‘faire travailler l’argent des autres’ (Benassar 1972:50). For the success of their activity, they built evolving networks with cooperative partners. These networks were much more than the sum of all partners. In the case study of the Castilian merchant Simon Ruiz, the network functioned in an unique way and independent from any formal institutional control. Its functioning varied in how different partners were associated and the particular characteristics and contents of these social ties. Being a self-organized network, since the formal institutions of trade regulation and the Crown control didn’t influence the network functioning, the Simon Ruiz network was deeply embedded in the economic and financial performance of the Hispanic Empires, in two different ways. The first, purely commercial. The monopolistic regime which was applied by the two crowns in the trade of certain colonial goods was insufficient to the costs of imperial maintenance. In such manner, particulars tried to rent a contract of exploration of trade, paying an annual sum to the crown, as in the Portuguese trade. Some of these agents also moved along Simon Ruiz’s network. But others were involved in relations with the imperial crowns on a second way, the finance. Maintaining Empires implied a lot of human, technical but also financial means, and most of the times Kings were forced to recur to these merchants, as we will demonstrate. What were the implications of these collaborative relations in both parts? The main goal of this paper is to comprehend the evolution of informal norms within Simon Ruiz’s network and how they influenced cooperative behavior of the agents, particularly analyzing mechanisms of sanctioning, control, punishment and reward, as well as their consequences in different dimensions: future interactions, social repercussions and in agent’s economic health and activity. The research is based in the bills of exchange and commercial correspondence of the private archive of Simon Ruiz, located in the Provincial Archive of Valladollid, Spain.

Järjestö jäänmurtajana : Suomen merimiesunioni työmarkkinaosapuolena ja suomalaisten laivatyöntekijöiden turvallisuuden vankentajana 1944-1980

Like an Icebreaker: The Finnish Seamen s Union as collective bargaining maverick and champion of sailors social safety 1944-1980. The Finnish Seamen's Union (FSU), which was established on a national basis in 1920, was one of the first Finnish trade unions to succeed in collective bargaining. In the early 1930s, the gains made in the late 1920s were lost, due to politically based internal rivalries, the Great Depression, and a disastrous strike. Unexpectedly the FSU survived and went on promoting the well-being of its members even during World War II. After the war the FSU was in an exceptionally favorable position to exploit the introduction of coordinated capitalism, which was based on social partnership between unions, employers and government. Torpedoes, mines and confiscations had caused severe losses to the Finnish merchant marine. Both ship-owners and government alike understood the crucial importance of using the remaining national shipping capacity effectively. The FSU could no longer be crushed, and so, in 1945, the union was allowed to turn all ocean-going Finnish ships into closed shops. The FSU also had another source of power. After the sailors of the Finnish icebreaker fleet also joined its ranks, the FSU could, in effect, block Finnish foreign trade in wintertime. From the late 1940s to the 1960s the union started and won numerous icebreaker strikes. Finnish seamen were thus granted special pension rights, reductions on income taxes and import duties, and other social privileges. The FSU could neither be controlled by union federations nor intimidated by employers or governments. The successful union and its tactically clever chairperson, Niilo Välläri, were continuously but erroneously accused of syndicalism. Välläri did not aim for socialism but wanted the Finnish seamen to get all the social benefits that capitalism could possibly offer. Välläri s policy was successfully followed by the FSU until the late 1980s when Finnish ship-owners were allowed to flag their vessels outside the national registry. Since then the FSU has been on the defensive and has yielded to pay cuts. The FSU members have not lost their social benefits, but they are under constant fear of losing their jobs to cheap foreign labor.

Growth and Convergence: The case of China

Growth and Convergence: The Case of China Since the initiation of economic reforms in 1978, China has become one of the world’s fast-growing economies. The rapid growth, however, has not been shared equally across the different regions in China. The prominent feature of substantial differences in incomes and growth rates across the different Chinese regions has attracted the attention of many researchers. This book focuses on issues related to economic growth and convergence across the Chinese regions over the past three decades. The book has eight chapters. Apart from an introduction chapter and a concluding chapter, all the other chapters each deal with some certain aspects of the central issue of regional growth and convergence across China over the past three decades. The whole book is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the basic issues involved in this book. Chapter 2 tests economic growth and convergence across 31 Chinese provinces during 1981-2005, based on the theoretical framework of the Solow growth model. Chapter 3 investigates the relationship between openness to foreign economic activities, such as foreign trade and foreign direct investment, and the regional economic growth in the case of China during 1981-2005. Chapter 4, based on data of 31 Chinese provinces over the period 1980-2004, presents new evidence on the effects of structural shocks and structural transformation on growth and convergence among the Chinese regions. Chapter 5, by building up an empirical model that takes account of different potential effects of foreign direct investment, focuses on the impacts of foreign direct investment on China’s regional economic performance and growth. Chapter 6 reconsiders the growth and convergence problem of the Chinese regions in an alternative theoretical framework with endogenous saving behavior and capital mobility across regions. Chapter 7, by building up a theoretical model concerning comparative advantage and transaction efficiency, focuses on one of the potential mechanisms through which China achieves its fast economic growth over the past few decades. Chapter 8 concludes the book by summarizing the results from the previous chapters and suggesting directions for further studies.

Macro-economic analysis of forestry options on carbon sequestration in India

The forestry sector provides a number of climate change mitigation options. Apart from this ecological benefit, it has significant social and economic relevance. Implementation of forestry options requires large investments and sustained long-term planning. Thus there is a need for a detailed analysis of forestry options to understand their implications on stock and flow of carbon, required investments, value of forest wealth, contribution to GNP and livelihood, demand management, employment and foreign trade. There is a need to evaluate the additional spending on forestry by analysing the environmental (particularly carbon abatement), social and economic benefits. The biomass needs for India are expected to increase by two to three times by 2020. Depending upon the forest types, ownership patterns and land use patterns, feasible forestry options are identified. It is found among many supply options to be feasible to meet the 'demand based needs' with a mix of management options, species choices and organisational set up. A comparative static framework is used to analyze the macro-economic impacts. Forestry accounts for 1.84% of GNP in India. It is characterized by significant forward industrial linkages and least backward linkage. Forestry generates about 36 million person years of employment annually. India imports Rs. 15 billion worth of forest based materials annually. Implementation of the demand based forestry options can lead to a number of ecological, economic and institutional changes. The notable ones are: enhancement of C stock from 9578 to 17 094 Mt and a net annual C-sequestration from 73 to 149 Mt after accounting for all emissions; a trebling of the output of forestry sector from Rs. 49 billion to Rs. 146 billion annually; an increase in GDP contribution of forestry from Rs. 32 billion to Rs. 105 billion over a period of 35 years; an increase in annual employment level by 23 million person years, emergence of forestry as a net contributor of foreign exchange through trading of forestry products; and an increase in economic value of forest capital stock by Rs. 7260 billion with a cost benefit analysis showing forestry as a profitable option. Implementation of forestry options calls for an understanding of current forest policies and barriers which are analyzed and a number of policy options are suggested. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Una valoración del sector vinícola riojano

Este trabajo es resultado de la investigación realizada en el marco de la Tesis Doctoral sobre Impacto socioeconómico del sector del vino en Rioja, que elabora M. Larreina.

Inserção internacional no governo Lula o papel da política africana

O arco geográfico de atuação internacional de um país se delimita a partir das linhas de ação traçadas pela política externa. No caso brasileiro, o continente africano é percebido pelo pensamento diplomático como espaço privilegiado para a presença internacional do Brasil, em vista dos laços históricos e culturais, além de complementaridades econômicas e políticas. Essa percepção apresentou oscilações ao longo dos anos, nas relações Brasil-África, em uma dinâmica de maior aproximação ou afastamento, em vista de conjunturas internacionais e domésticas de ambos os lados. Nos últimos anos, ao longo do governo de Lula da Silva no Brasil, esse movimento convergiu para o estreitamento de laços e estabelecimento de parcerias e acordos de cooperação diversos. A compreensão desse processo, bem como de seus desdobramentos iniciais, é o que se pretende tratar na dissertação ora apresentada. Ao arguir acerca da relevância das relações diplomáticas do Brasil com países africanos, a presente dissertação baseou-se em levantamento de dados de comércio exterior, análise de discurso diplomático, leitura de reflexões de especialistas e acompanhamento dos desdobramentos suscitados pela valorização do continente africano para a política externa brasileira. A pesquisa efetuada encaminhou-se para o levantamento da hipótese acerca da assertividade e pragmatismo da política africana de Lula da Silva, em vista de seus resultados e vínculos com o interesse nacional.

Análisis de dos economías de la Unión Europea: Alemania y España

CASTELLANO. Alemania, un país muy afectado tras el nazismo y las diferentes guerras en las cuales se vio involucrado, adoptó una Economía Social de Mercado (ESM) en 1948, que le permitió abrir sus puertas hacia la internacionalización, lo cual había estado fuertemente regulado hasta entonces. Esta apertura de fronteras ha favorecido al comercio exterior el cual está muy desarrollado. Además, una moderada inflación, un bajo nivel de deuda pública, alta cualificación de la población, el potente desarrollo industrial manufacturero y su capacidad de recuperación de la crisis económica que estalló en 2007, entre otros, hace de Alemania un país muy próspero. España, tras su recuperación de la época del franquismo la cual había castigado de forma severa a este país, se recuperó hasta niveles superiores a Alemania en cuestión de confianza empresarial. En cambio, en 2007, momento de estallido de crisis, la producción de varios sectores se vio muy reducida (principalmente el sector de la construcción), la tasa de desempleo aumentó de forma descontrolada… Actualmente, este país se encuentra en proceso de recuperación el cual se basa mucho en el turismo y por consiguiente en el sector servicios que año tras año ha ido evolucionando hasta convertirse en uno de los motores de esta economía.