Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

A matter of scale: apparent niche differentiation of diploid and tetraploid plants may depend on extent and grain of analysis

Aim: Emerging polyploids may depend on environmental niche shifts for successful establishment. Using the alpine plant Ranunculus kuepferi as a model system, we explore the niche shift hypothesis at different spatial resolutions and in contrasting parts of the species range. Location: European Alps. Methods: We sampled 12 individuals from each of 102 populations of R. kuepferi across the Alps, determined their ploidy levels, derived coarse-grain (100x100m) environmental descriptors for all sampling sites by downscaling WorldClim maps, and calculated fine-scale environmental descriptors (2x2m) from indicator values of the vegetation accompanying the sampled individuals. Both coarse and fine-scale variables were further computed for 8239 vegetation plots from across the Alps. Subsequently, we compared niche optima and breadths of diploid and tetraploid cytotypes by combining principal components analysis and kernel smoothing procedures. Comparisons were done separately for coarse and fine-grain data sets and for sympatric, allopatric and the total set of populations. Results: All comparisons indicate that the niches of the two cytotypes differ in optima and/or breadths, but results vary in important details. The whole-range analysis suggests differentiation along the temperature gradient to be most important. However, sympatric comparisons indicate that this climatic shift was not a direct response to competition with diploid ancestors. Moreover, fine-grained analyses demonstrate niche contraction of tetraploids, especially in the sympatric range, that goes undetected with coarse-grained data. Main conclusions: Although the niche optima of the two cytotypes differ, separation along ecological gradients was probably less decisive for polyploid establishment than a shift towards facultative apomixis, a particularly effective strategy to avoid minority cytotype exclusion. In addition, our results suggest that coarse-grained analyses overestimate niche breadths of widely distributed taxa. Niche comparison analyses should hence be conducted at environmental data resolutions appropriate for the organism and question under study.

Assessment of Environmental Impacts of Power Generation

Through indisputable evidence of climate change and its link to the greenhouse gas emissions comes the necessity for change in energy production infrastructure during the coming decades. Through political conventions and restrictions energy industry is pushed toward using bigger share of renewable energy sources as energy supply. In addition to climate change, sustainable energy supply is another major issue for future development plans, but neither of these should come with unbearable price. All the power production types have environmental effects as well as strengths and weaknesses. Although each change comes with a price, right track in minimising the environmental impacts and energy supply security can be found by combining all possible low-carbon technologies and by improving energy efficiency in all sectors, for creating a new power production infrastructure of tolerable energy price and of minor environmental effects. GEMIS-Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems is a life-cycle analysis program which was used in this thesis to make indicative energy models for Finland’s future energy supply. Results indicate that the energy supply must comprise both high capacity nuclear power as well as large variation of renewable energy sources for minimization of all environmental effects and keeping energy price reasonable.

Developing the environmental marketing of an industrial company

The objective of this study was to examine how the customers of Larox Flowsys value environmental issues and how environmental issues affect their purchasing behaviour. A comparison between Larox peristaltic pumps and competing pump brands and types was also made in order to find out whether LPP pumps possess some more environmentally beneficial features that other pumps do not have. Finally, if the answers to the first two research questions show that a need for a new marketing message does exist, then the final stage is to select the most appropriate environmental arguments for Larox Flowsys. The empirical data in the study was collected from several different sources, but the main sources were the customer interviews and the outsourced market research. The data was analysed mainly by using content analysis, but theme formation and quantification were also utilized. The results showed that the customers do not consider environmental issues as a main purchasing criterion, but they may well be the criterion that differentiates the product from competing ones. The comparison proved that LPP pumps do possess some significant environmental benefits over competing pumps and therefore, the prerequisite for the use of environmental arguments exists. The final stage in the study was to select the proper environmental arguments for Larox Flowsys.

Assessment of Coastal Bird Populations and Habitats on the Finnish Coast of the Baltic Sea: Implications for Monitoring and Management

Coastal birds are an integral part of coastal ecosystems, which nowadays are subject to severe environmental pressures. Effective measures for the management and conservation of seabirds and their habitats call for insight into their population processes and the factors affecting their distribution and abundance. Central to national and international management and conservation measures is the availability of accurate data and information on bird populations, as well as on environmental trends and on measures taken to solve environmental problems. In this thesis I address different aspects of the occurrence, abundance, population trends and breeding success of waterbirds breeding on the Finnish coast of the Baltic Sea, and discuss the implications of the results for seabird monitoring, management and conservation. In addition, I assess the position and prospects of coastal bird monitoring data, in the processing and dissemination of biodiversity data and information in accordance with the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and other national and international commitments. I show that important factors for seabird habitat selection are island area and elevation, water depth, shore openness, and the composition of island cover habitats. Habitat preferences are species-specific, with certain similarities within species groups. The occurrence of the colonial Arctic Tern (Sterna paradisaea) is partly affected by different habitat characteristics than its abundance. Using long-term bird monitoring data, I show that eutrophication and winter severity have reduced the populations of several Finnish seabird species. A major demographic factor through which environmental changes influence bird populations is breeding success. Breeding success can function as a more rapid indicator of sublethal environmental impacts than population trends, particularly for long-lived and slowbreeding species, and should therefore be included in coastal bird monitoring schemes. Among my target species, local breeding success can be shown to affect the populations of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), the Eider (Somateria mollissima) and the Goosander (Mergus merganser) after a time lag corresponding to their species-specific recruitment age. For some of the target species, the number of individuals in late summer can be used as an easier and more cost-effective indicator of breeding success than brood counts. My results highlight that the interpretation and application of habitat and population studies require solid background knowledge of the ecology of the target species. In addition, the special characteristics of coastal birds, their habitats, and coastal bird monitoring data have to be considered in the assessment of their distribution and population trends. According to the results, the relationships between the occurrence, abundance and population trends of coastal birds and environmental factors can be quantitatively assessed using multivariate modelling and model selection. Spatial data sets widely available in Finland can be utilised in the calculation of several variables that are relevant to the habitat selection of Finnish coastal species. Concerning some habitat characteristics field work is still required, due to a lack of remotely sensed data or the low resolution of readily available data in relation to the fine scale of the habitat patches in the archipelago. While long-term data sets exist for water quality and weather, the lack of data concerning for instance the food resources of birds hampers more detailed studies of environmental effects on bird populations. Intensive studies of coastal bird species in different archipelago areas should be encouraged. The provision and free delivery of high-quality coastal data concerning bird populations and their habitats would greatly increase the capability of ecological modelling, as well as the management and conservation of coastal environments and communities. International initiatives that promote open spatial data infrastructures and sharing are therefore highly regarded. To function effectively, international information networks, such as the biodiversity Clearing House Mechanism (CHM) under the CBD, need to be rooted at regional and local levels. Attention should also be paid to the processing of data for higher levels of the information hierarchy, so that data are synthesized and developed into high-quality knowledge applicable to management and conservation.

Elämänlaatu ja iäkkäiden kaatumisten ehkäisy

Quality of life and fall prevention among the aged Improvement of quality of life is considered to be one of the most important goals of prevention, treatment and rehabilitation among the aged. The study aimed to describe and assess fall prevention interventions as a quality of life indicator, and to describe the social dimension of health-related quality of life among the aged. In addition, it aimed to assess the effects of fall prevention intervention on quality of life among the aged. The study was implemented by using a methodological triangulation. The data in the systematic review was retrieved from the databasis of medical and nursing sciences. Home-dwelling aged (n=19) participated in the qualitative study of a social dimension of quality of life. The data was gathered by the thematic interview method. The quantitative multifactorial fall prevention study comprised 591 participants, either the aged living at home or in sheltered housing, showing an increased risk of falling. Participants were randomized into an intervention or a control group. Follow-up measurements were carried out after a 12 month intervention. The data was collected by the 15D quality of life instrument and a structured questionnaire. Based on the systematic review, only in a few studies fall prevention produced positive effects on dimensions of quality of life (physical function, social function, vitality, mental health, environmental domain). Based on the thematic interview the social dimension of quality of life consisted of three themes: personal values, personal milieu and personal daily life. Based on the fall prevention program, depressive symptoms and distress decreased, managing in usual activities improved, sexual activity and phone contacts increased among men. In women, managing in usual activities improved, socializing increased and discomfort and symptoms decreased. Within the groups, self-perceived health improved among women in the intervention group and among men in the control groups. In addition, fear of falling and feelings of insecurity reduced among women in the intervention group. Personal daily life with its activities opened up new perspectives into the social dimension of good quality of life, which was emphasized especially in the interviews of the oldest participants. Multifactorial fall prevention can affect positively some physical and psychosocial dimensions of quality of life among the community-dwelling aged. Additional studies with larger sample sizes, longer follow-up periods and multiple outcome measures are needed. Fall prevention intervention may affect quality of life by different mechanisms, and the quantitative and qualitative assessment of its effects should also be included in the interventions of randomized controlled trials.

The influence of genetic and environmental factors among MDMA users in cognitive performance

This study is aimed to clarify the association between MDMA cumulative use and cognitive dysfunction, and the potential role of candidate genetic polymorphisms in explaining individual differences in the cognitive effects of MDMA. Gene polymorphisms related to reduced serotonin function, poor competency of executive control and memory consolidation systems, and high enzymatic activity linked to bioactivation of MDMA to neurotoxic metabolites may contribute to explain variations in the cognitive impact of MDMA across regular users of this drug. Sixty ecstasy polydrug users, 110 cannabis users and 93 non-drug users were assessed using cognitive measures of Verbal Memory (California Verbal Learning Test, CVLT), Visual Memory (Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test, ROCFT), Semantic Fluency, and Perceptual Attention (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, SDMT). Participants were also genotyped for polymorphisms within the 5HTT, 5HTR2A, COMT, CYP2D6, BDNF, and GRIN2B genes using polymerase chain reaction and TaqMan polymerase assays. Lifetime cumulative MDMA use was significantly associated with poorer performance on visuospatial memory and perceptual attention. Heavy MDMA users (>100 tablets lifetime use) interacted with candidate gene polymorphisms in explaining individual differences in cognitive performance between MDMA users and controls. MDMA users carrying COMT val/val and SERT s/s had poorer performance than paired controls on visuospatial attention and memory, and MDMA users with CYP2D6 ultra-rapid metabolizers performed worse than controls on semantic fluency. Both MDMA lifetime use and gene-related individual differences influence cognitive dysfunction in ecstasy users.

EDTA: the chelating agent under environmental scrutiny

The chelating agent EDTA (ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid) is a compound of massive use world wide with household and industrial applications, being one of the anthropogenic compounds with highest concentrations in inland European waters. In this review, the applications of EDTA and its behavior once it has been released into the environment are described. At a laboratory scale, degradation of EDTA has been achieved; however, in natural environments studies detect poor biodegradability. It is concluded that EDTA behaves as a persistent substance in the environment and that its contribution to heavy metals bioavailability and remobilization processes in the environment is a major concern.

VIX as a stock market indicator

The goal of this research was to make an overall sight to VIX and how it can be used as a stock market indicator. Volatility index, often referred as the fear index, measures how much does it cost for investor to protect his/hers S&P 500 position from fluctuations with options. Over the relatively short history of VIX it has succesfull timing coordinator and it has told about the market state adding its own psychological view of the amount of fear and greed.

Ultra-trace monitoring of copper in environmental and biological samples by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry after separation and preconcentration by using octadecyl silica membrane disks modified by a new schiff's base

Ultra-trace amounts of Cu(II) were separated and preconcentrated by solid phase extraction on octadecyl-bonded silica membrane disks modified with a new Schiff,s base (Bis- (2-Hydroxyacetophenone) -2,2-dimethyl-1,3-propanediimine) (SBTD) followed by elution and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometric detection. The method was applied as a separation and detection method for copper(II) in environmental and biological samples. Extraction efficiency and the influence of sample matrix, flow rate, pH, and type and minimum amount of stripping acid were investigated. The concentration factor and detection limit of the proposed method are 500 and 12.5 pg mL-1, respectively.

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD), dibenzofurans (PCDF) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB): main sources, environmental behaviour and risk to man and biota

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofuranes (PCDF) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) are types of persistent and bioaccumulating organic pollutants with enhanced chronic toxicity and carcinogenic properties and can be considered as environmental indicators of anthropogenic activities since their occurrence in the environment can always be linked to anthropogenic activities. The present paper reviews the main sources and behaviour of these compounds in the environment as well as the risks they represent to man and biota.

Solid phase extraction of iron and lead in environmental matrices on amberlite xad-1180/pv

A solid phase extraction procedure using Amberlite XAD-1180/Pyrocatechol violet (PV) chelating resin for the determination of iron and lead ions in various environmental samples was established. The procedure is based on the sorption of lead(II) and iron(III) ions onto the resin at pH 9, followed by elution with 1 mol/L HNO3 and determination by flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The influence of alkaline, earth alkaline and some transition metals, as interferents, are discussed. The recoveries for the spiked analytes were greater than 95%. The detection limits for lead and iron by FAAS were 0.37 µg/L and 0.20 µg/L, respectively. Validation of the method described here was performed by using three certified reference materials (SRM 1515 Apple Leaves, SRM 2711 Montana Soil and NRCC-SLRS-4 Riverine Water). The procedure was successfully applied to natural waters and human hair.