Essays on Banking Competition

I study local shocks to consumer credit supply arising from the opening

of bank-related retail stores. Bank-related store openings coincide with

sharp increases in credit card placements in the neighborhood of the

store, in the months surrounding the store opening, and with the bank

that owns the store. I exploit this relationship to instrument for new

credit cards at the individual level, and find that obtaining a new

credit card sharply increases total borrowing as well as default risk,

particularly for risky and opaque borrowers. In line with theories of

default externality, I observe that existing lenders react to the

increased consumer borrowing and associated riskiness by contracting

their own supply. In particular, in the year following the issuance of a

new credit card, banks without links to stores reduce credit card limits

by 24-51%, offsetting most of the initial increase in total credit

limits.

Explanation, Dialogue and Default Logic

La distinción entre argumentación y explicación es una tarea complicada pero necesaria por diversas razones. Una de ellas es la necesidad de incorporar la explicación en un movimiento del diálogo como resultado de una obligación dialéctica. Se propusieron distintos sistemas de diálogo que exploran la distinción enfatizando aspectos pragmáticos. En el presente trabajo me ocupo de aspectos estructurales de la explicación analizados en el marco de la lógica por defecto que permite caracterizar ciertas objeciones en el diálogo. Asimismo, considero que la versión operacional de la lógica por defecto constituye una aproximaciónadecuada en la construcción de la explicación y en la representación de la instancia de diálogo en el intercambio dialéctico

Irish Credit Unions: Differential Regulation based on Business Model Complexity

This study examines the business model complexity of Irish credit unions using a latent class approach to measure structural performance over the period 2002 to 2013. The latent class approach allows the endogenous identification of a multi-class framework for business models based on credit union specific characteristics. The analysis finds a three class system to be appropriate with the multi-class model dependent on three financial viability characteristics. This finding is consistent with the deliberations of the Irish Commission on Credit Unions (2012) which identified complexity and diversity in the business models of Irish credit unions and recommended that such complexity and diversity could not be accommodated within a one size fits all regulatory framework. The analysis also highlights that two of the classes are subject to diseconomies of scale. This may suggest credit unions would benefit from a reduction in scale or perhaps that there is an imbalance in the present change process. Finally, relative performance differences are identified for each class in terms of technical efficiency. This suggests that there is an opportunity for credit unions to improve their performance by using within-class best practice or alternatively by switching to another class.

Capital 2.0 capital formation and legal risk in a new global economic order from fiat to exit: including case studies of the proposed transatlantic trade and investment partnership between the United States and the European Union and the financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China

Following the intrinsically linked balance sheets in his Capital Formation Life Cycle, Lukas M. Stahl explains with his Triple A Model of Accounting, Allocation and Accountability the stages of the Capital Formation process from FIAT to EXIT. Based on the theoretical foundations of legal risk laid by the International Bar Association with the help of Roger McCormick and legal scholars such as Joanna Benjamin, Matthew Whalley and Tobias Mahler, and founded on the basis of Wesley Hohfeld’s category theory of jural relations, Stahl develops his mutually exclusive Four Determinants of Legal Risk of Law, Lack of Right, Liability and Limitation. Those Four Determinants of Legal Risk allow us to apply, assess, and precisely describe the respective legal risk at all stages of the Capital Formation Life Cycle as demonstrated in case studies of nine industry verticals of the proposed and currently negotiated Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States of America and the European Union, TTIP, as well as in the case of the often cited financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Having established the Four Determinants of Legal Risk and its application to the Capital Formation Life Cycle, Stahl then explores the theoretical foundations of capital formation, their historical basis in classical and neo-classical economics and its forefathers such as The Austrians around Eugen von Boehm-Bawerk, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich von Hayek and most notably and controversial, Karl Marx, and their impact on today’s exponential expansion of capital formation. Starting off with the first pillar of his Triple A Model, Accounting, Stahl then moves on to explain the Three Factors of Capital Formation, Man, Machines and Money and shows how “value-added” is created with respect to the non-monetary capital factors of human resources and industrial production. Followed by a detailed analysis discussing the roles of the Three Actors of Monetary Capital Formation, Central Banks, Commercial Banks and Citizens Stahl readily dismisses a number of myths regarding the creation of money providing in-depth insight into the workings of monetary policy makers, their institutions and ultimate beneficiaries, the corporate and consumer citizens. In his second pillar, Allocation, Stahl continues his analysis of the balance sheets of the Capital Formation Life Cycle by discussing the role of The Five Key Accounts of Monetary Capital Formation, the Sovereign, Financial, Corporate, Private and International account of Monetary Capital Formation and the associated legal risks in the allocation of capital pursuant to his Four Determinants of Legal Risk. In his third pillar, Accountability, Stahl discusses the ever recurring Crisis-Reaction-Acceleration-Sequence-History, in short: CRASH, since the beginning of the millennium starting with the dot-com crash at the turn of the millennium, followed seven years later by the financial crisis of 2008 and the dislocations in the global economy we are facing another seven years later today in 2015 with several sordid debt restructurings under way and hundred thousands of refugees on the way caused by war and increasing inequality. Together with the regulatory reactions they have caused in the form of so-called landmark legislation such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, the JOBS Act of 2012 or the introduction of the Basel Accords, Basel II in 2004 and III in 2010, the European Financial Stability Facility of 2010, the European Stability Mechanism of 2012 and the European Banking Union of 2013, Stahl analyses the acceleration in size and scope of crises that appears to find often seemingly helpless bureaucratic responses, the inherent legal risks and the complete lack of accountability on part of those responsible. Stahl argues that the order of the day requires to address the root cause of the problems in the form of two fundamental design defects of our Global Economic Order, namely our monetary and judicial order. Inspired by a 1933 plan of nine University of Chicago economists abolishing the fractional reserve system, he proposes the introduction of Sovereign Money as a prerequisite to void misallocations by way of judicial order in the course of domestic and transnational insolvency proceedings including the restructuring of sovereign debt throughout the entire monetary system back to its origin without causing domino effects of banking collapses and failed financial institutions. In recognizing Austrian-American economist Schumpeter’s Concept of Creative Destruction, as a process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one, Stahl responds to Schumpeter’s economic chemotherapy with his Concept of Equitable Default mimicking an immunotherapy that strengthens the corpus economicus own immune system by providing for the judicial authority to terminate precisely those misallocations that have proven malignant causing default perusing the century old common law concept of equity that allows for the equitable reformation, rescission or restitution of contract by way of judicial order. Following a review of the proposed mechanisms of transnational dispute resolution and current court systems with transnational jurisdiction, Stahl advocates as a first step in order to complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle from FIAT, the creation of money by way of credit, to EXIT, the termination of money by way of judicial order, the institution of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court constituted by a panel of judges from the U.S. Court of International Trade and the European Court of Justice by following the model of the EFTA Court of the European Free Trade Association. Since the first time his proposal has been made public in June of 2014 after being discussed in academic circles since 2011, his or similar proposals have found numerous public supporters. Most notably, the former Vice President of the European Parliament, David Martin, has tabled an amendment in June 2015 in the course of the negotiations on TTIP calling for an independent judicial body and the Member of the European Commission, Cecilia Malmström, has presented her proposal of an International Investment Court on September 16, 2015. Stahl concludes, that for the first time in the history of our generation it appears that there is a real opportunity for reform of our Global Economic Order by curing the two fundamental design defects of our monetary order and judicial order with the abolition of the fractional reserve system and the introduction of Sovereign Money and the institution of a democratically elected Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court that commensurate with its jurisdiction extending to cases concerning the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership may complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle resolving cases of default with the transnational judicial authority for terminal resolution of misallocations in a New Global Economic Order without the ensuing dangers of systemic collapse from FIAT to EXIT.

FX modelling under collateralization

We present the market practice for interest rate yield curves construction and pricing interest rate derivatives. Then we give a brief description of the Vasicek and the Hull-White models, with an example of calibration to market data. We generalize the classical Black-Scholes-Merton pricing formulas, considering more general cases such as perfect or partial collateral, derivatives on a dividend paying asset subject to repo funding, and multiple currencies. Finally we derive generic pricing formulae for different combinations of cash flow and collateral currencies, and we apply the results to the pricing of FX swaps and CCS, and we discuss curve bootstrapping.

Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mispriced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

The benefits of diversification from international real estate securities are generally well established. However, the drivers of international real estate securities returns are insufficiently understood. We jointly examine the empirical implications of three major international asset pricing models that account for broad macroeconomic risk factors. In addition, we develop the hypothesis that an indicator of mispriced credit is significant in explaining the time series variation in international real estate securities returns. We employ the returns generated by a large sample of firms from 20 countries over the period 1999 to 2011 to test our hypothesis. We find support for the predictions of the major international asset pricing models. We also find evidence in favour of our hypothesised link between local credit conditions and the performance of international real estate securities.

Report on the ethanol retailers’ tax credit program and the Research Activities Credit (RAC) tax credit program administered by the Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) for the period January 1, 2002 through December 31, 2014

Report on the ethanol retailers’ tax credit program and the Research Activities Credit (RAC) tax credit program administered by the Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) for the period January 1, 2002 through December 31, 2014

Micro-Foundations of Financialization. Status Anxiety and the Market for Consumer Credit in Chile

This project investigates why people in Chile acquired so much consumer debt in contexts of material prosperity, and asks what the role of inequality and commodification is in this process. The case raises an important challenge to the literature. Insofar as existing accounts assume that the financialization of consumption occurs in contexts marked by wage stagnation and a general deterioration of the middle classes, they engender two contradictory explanations: while political economists argue that people use credit in order to smooth their consumption in the face of market volatility, economists maintain that concentration of wealth at the top pushes middle income consumers to emulate the expenditures of the rich and consume beyond their means. These explanations do not necessarily fit the reality of developing countries. Triangulating in-depth interviews with middle class families, multivariate statistical analysis and secondary literature, the project shows that consumers in Chile use credit to finance “ordinary” forms of consumption that do not aim either at coping with market instability or emulating and signaling status to others. Rather, Chileans use department store credit cards in order to acquire a standard package of “inconspicuous” goods that they feel entitled to have. From this point of view, the systematic indebtedness of consumers originates in a major concern with “rank”, “achievement” and "security" that – following De Botton -- I call “status anxiety”. Status anxiety does not stem from the desire to emulate rich consumers, but from the impossibility of complying with normative expectations about what a middle class family should be (and have) that outweigh wage improvements. The project thus investigates the way in which “status anxiety” is systematically reproduced by means of two broad mechanisms that prompt people to acquire consumer debt. The first mechanism generating debt stems from an increase of real wages and high levels of inequality. It is explained by a general sociological principle known as relative deprivation, which points to the fact that general satisfaction with one´s income, possessions or status, is assessed not in absolute terms such as total income, but in relation with reference groups. In this sense, I explore the mechanisms that operate as catalyzers of relative deprivation, by making explicit social inequalities and distorting the perception of others´ wealth. Despite upward mobility and economic improvement, Chileans share the perception of “falling behind,” which materializes in an “imaginary middle class” against which people compare their status, possessions and economic independence. Finally, I show that the commodification of education, health and pension funds does not directly prompt people to acquire consumer debt, but operate as “income draining” mechanisms that demand higher shares of middle class families’ “discretionary income.” In combination with “relative deprivation,” these “income draining” mechanisms leave families with few options to perform their desired class identities, other than learning how to bring resources from the future into the present with the help of department store credit cards.

Analyse de l’écart bancaire sur les éléments hors-bilan : cas des swaps de taux d'intérêt

La recherche qui a été effectuée dans le présent document, porte sur l'écart appliqué par les banques aux swaps de taux d'intérêt. Les éléments hors-bilan des banques dont fait partie les swaps de taux d'intérêt ont connu ces dernières années une croissance très importante, à cause principalement d'une volatilité des taux d'intérêt élevée. Nous avons choisi d'analyser l'écart bancaire sur les swaps de taux d'intérêt dans le but d'identifier la nature des relations qui existent entre lui et certains facteurs pertinents. Étant donné que dans la littérature financière il n'y a aucune étude empirique relative à ce sujet, et qu'il y a un manque d'informations théoriques adéquates en ce qui concerne la forme des relations analysées, nous avons effectué ce travail dans une perspective exploratoire. Les facteurs pertinents retenus sont le taux des acceptations bancaires, la volatilité de ce taux, mesurée par l'écart-type des observations des trente derniers jours, la pente de la courbe de rendement, et l'échéance du swap. La période d'étude va du 17/02/89 au 11/02/91 et compte 493 observations; elle a été subdivisée en quatre sous-périodes chronologiques égales. Ainsi chacune des analyses a-t-elle été effectuée de deux façons ; d'abord sur l'ensemble de l'échantillon et ensuite dans les sous-périodes. Deux types de swaps ont été considérés : les swaps de trois ans d'échéance et les swaps de cinq ans d'échéance. Les résultats de l'analyse des données sont les suivants : Dans une large mesure, il est plausible d'affirmer que l'écart bancaire sur les swaps de taux d'intérêt est une fonction négative du taux des acceptations bancaires. Mais cette relation est plus évidente lorsque le taux des acceptations bancaires est élevé que lorsqu'il est plus faible. Il est également soutenable d'affirmer que l'écart bancaire est une fonction positive de la volatilité des taux d'intérêt ainsi que de la pente de la courbe de rendement. L'écart bancaire augmente avec une augmentation de l'échéance du swap; néanmoins la relation entre les deux n'est pas une relation linéaire, c'est-à-dire de proportionnalité. Les résultats obtenus sont en général concordants avec la théorie économique et financière et leurs implications pratiques peuvent être utiles aussi bien pour la banque que pour les entreprises clientes.

Senate Documents vol 24 Evolution of Credit and Banks in France

From the Founding of the Bank of France to the Present Time

Local savings and credit organizations : towards an innovative approach for rural Zimbabwe

Résumé : L'épargne et le crédit sont reconnus comme deux éléments clés du développement économique. Or, jusqu'à ce que les membres défavorisés d'une communauté aient accès aux ressources et services financiers, ils seront toujours privés de la participation au processus du développement et des bénéfices qui pourraient s'en suivre. La recherche indique que les services des prêts offerts par les institutions officielles ne parviennent que rarement aux plus pauvres de la société, qui sont obligés par conséquent de dépendre des intermédiaires informels comme les groupes d'épargne et les usuriers. Diverses organisations sur place comme les coopératives ont essayé de répondre aux besoins du développement des communautés défavorisées. Dans ce contexte, nous ferons d'abord le bilan historique et international des coopératives d'épargne et de crédit (i.e. les caisses populaires). Ensuite, nous analyserons quatre autres tentatives récentes qui eurent pour but de créer de nouvelles formes d'institutions financières, de les développer de telle sorte qu'elles offrent un degré d'accès raisonnable, sinon privilégié, aux ménages de revenu inférieur. L'analyse de ces cas-ci (venant du Zimbabwe, de l'Inde, du Ghana, et du Bangladesh) permettra d'identifier leurs caractéristiques communes et divergentes. À partir des résultats de cette analyse, un projet pilote au Zimbabwe fut initié pour élaborer une stratégie appropriée qui faciliterait le développement d'un réseau de caisses rurales. L'analyse théorique, la mise en pratique du projet, ainsi que les conclusions subséquentes soulignent l'importance de la participation directe des communautés à l'élaboration des organisations populaires. Il est évident que ces méthodes sont de loin plus efficaces que celles basées sur des politiques et des structures uniformes et compréhensives.||Abstract : Savings and credit are recognized as key elements of economic development, but until such time as disadvantaged members of the community have access to financial resources and services, they are obstructed from participating fully in the development process. Experience has shown that formal institutional credit bas rarely reached the poorer sectors of society, who have had to rely on informal intermediaries such as savings groups and money-lenders. Local organizations such as co-operatives have attempted to respond to the development needs of disadvantaged communities, and the historical and international record of savings and credit co-operatives (i.e. credit unions) is examined in this context. Four recent initiatives to design and develop new forms of financial institutions that give fair if not favoured access to low-income housebolds are also identified. These cases (from Zimbabwe, India, Bangladesh, and Ghana) are examined in an effort to identify common and divergent characteristics. Following from this analysis, a pilot project in Zimbabwe was initiated in an effort to elaborate an appropriate strategy for development of a network of rural savings and credit organization. The theoretical analysis, field exercise and subsequent reflections highlight the need for participatory methods of organizational design and development, rather than any all-encompassing structural or policy guidelines.

Modelo de Scoring para o Crédito à Habitação: Um estudo de caso em Portugal

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Modelo de regressão beta para teste de estresse em risco de crédito de instituições financeiras

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Exatas, Departamento de Estatistica, 2015.