Studies on the universal parameters and onset of chaos in dissipative systems

It has become clear over the last few years that many deterministic dynamical systems described by simple but nonlinear equations with only a few variables can behave in an irregular or random fashion. This phenomenon, commonly called deterministic chaos, is essentially due to the fact that we cannot deal with infinitely precise numbers. In these systems trajectories emerging from nearby initial conditions diverge exponentially as time evolves)and therefore)any small error in the initial measurement spreads with time considerably, leading to unpredictable and chaotic behaviour The thesis work is mainly centered on the asymptotic behaviour of nonlinear and nonintegrable dissipative dynamical systems. It is found that completely deterministic nonlinear differential equations describing such systems can exhibit random or chaotic behaviour. Theoretical studies on this chaotic behaviour can enhance our understanding of various phenomena such as turbulence, nonlinear electronic circuits, erratic behaviour of heart and brain, fundamental molecular reactions involving DNA, meteorological phenomena, fluctuations in the cost of materials and so on. Chaos is studied mainly under two different approaches - the nature of the onset of chaos and the statistical description of the chaotic state.

“Assessment of Heavy Metals in the Environmental Compartments of the Central and Northern Coast of Kerala, India”

The nearshore marine ecosystem is a dynamic environment impacted by many activities, especially the coastal waters and sediments contiguous to major urban areas. Although heavy metals are natural constituents of the marine environment, inputs are considered to be conservative pollutants and are potentially toxic, accumulate in the sediment, are bioconcentrated by organisms and may cause health problems to humans via the food chain. A variety of metals in trace amounts are essential for biological processes in all organisms, but excessive levels can be detrimental by acting as enzyme inhibitors. Discharge of industrial wastewater, agriculture runoff and untreated sewage pose a particularly serious threat to the coastal environment of Kerala, but there is a dearth of studies in documenting the contaminant metals. This study aimed principally to assess such contamination by examining the results of heavy metal (Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Zn, Cd and Hg) analysis in seawater, sediment and benthic biota from a survey of five transects along the central and northern coast of Kerala in 2008 covering a 10.0 km stretch of near shore environment in each transect. Trophic transfer of metal contaminants from aquatic invertebrates to its predators was also assessed, by employing a suitable benthic food chain model in order to understand which all metals are undergoing biotransference (transfer of metals from a food source to consumer).The study of present contamination levels will be useful for potential environmental remediation and ecosystem restoration at contaminated sites and provides a scientific basis for standards and protective measures for the coastal waters and sediments. The usefulness of biomonitor proposed in this study would allow identification of different bioavailable metals as well as provide an assessment of the magnitude of metal contamination in the coastal marine milieu. The increments in concentration of certain metals between the predator and prey discerned through benthic food chain can be interpreted as evidence of biotransference.

Performance Analysis of Reversible Fast Decimal Adders

This paper presents a performance analysis of reversible, fault tolerant VLSI implementations of carry select and hybrid decimal adders suitable for multi-digit BCD addition. The designs enable partial parallel processing of all digits that perform high-speed addition in decimal domain. When the number of digits is more than 25 the hybrid decimal adder can operate 5 times faster than conventional decimal adder using classical logic gates. The speed up factor of hybrid adder increases above 10 when the number of decimal digits is more than 25 for reversible logic implementation. Such highspeed decimal adders find applications in real time processors and internet-based applications. The implementations use only reversible conservative Fredkin gates, which make it suitable for VLSI circuits.

Bioactive Metabolites and Biomarkers from Rhizophoraceae mangroves- A Chemotaxonomic Approach

Mangroves are specialised ecosystems developed along estuarine sea coasts and river mouths in tropical and subtropical regions of the world, mainly in the intertidal zone. Hence, the ecosystem and its biological components is under the influence of both marine and freshwater conditions and has developed a set of physiological adaptations to overcome problems of anoxia, salinity and frequent tidal inundations. This has led to the assemblage of a wide variety of plant and animal species of special adaptations suited to the ecosystem. The path of photosynthesis in mangroves is different from other glycophytes. There are modifications or alterations in other physiological processes such as carbohydrate metabolism or polyphenol synthesis. As they survive under extreme conditions of salinity, temperature, tides and anoxic soil conditions they may have chemical compounds, which protect them from these destructive elements. Mangroves are necessarily tolerant of high salt levels and have mechanisms to take up water despite strong osmotic potentials. Some also take up salts, but excrete them through specialised glands in the leaves. Others transfer salts into senescent leaves or store them in the bark or the wood. Still others simply become increasingly conservative in their water use as water salinity increases. A usual transportation or biosynthetic path as other plants cannot be expected in mangrove plants. In India, the states like West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Goa, Maharashtra, and Gujarat occupy vast area of mangroves. Kerala has only 6 km2 total mangrove area with Rhizophora apiculata, Rhizophora mucronata, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Bruguiera cylindrica, Avicennia officinalis, Sonneratia caseolaris, Sonneratia apetala and Kandelia candal, as the important species present, most of which belong to the family Rhizophoraceae.Rhizophoraceae mangroves are ranked as “major elements of mangroves” as they give the real shape of this unique and interesting ecosystem and these mangrove species most productive and typical characteristic ecosystem of World renowned. It was found that the Rhizophoraceae mangrove extracts exhibit several bioactive properties. Various parts of these mangroves are used in ethnomedicinal practices. Even though extracts from these mangroves possess therapeutic activity against humans, animal and plant pathogens, the specific metabolites responsible for these bioactivities remains to be elucidated. Various parts of these mangroves are used in ethnomedicinal practices. There is a gap of information towards the chemistry of Rhizophoraceae mangroves from Kerala. Thorough phytochemical investigation can achieve the validity of ethnomedicines as well as apply the use of mangrove plants in the development of new drugs. Such studies can pave a firm base for their use in biomarker and chemotaxonomic studies as well as for the better management of the existing mangrove ecosystem. In this study, the various chemical parameters including minerals, biochemical components, bioactive and biomarker molecules were used to classify and assess the possible potentials of the mangrove plants of the true mangrove family Rhizophoraceae from Kochi.

Szenarien zur zukünftigen Stromversorgung, kostenoptimierte Variationen zur Versorgung Europas und seiner Nachbarn mit Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien

Sowohl die Ressourcenproblematik als auch die drohenden Ausmaße der Klimaänderung lassen einen Umstieg auf andere Energiequellen langfristig unausweichlich erscheinen und mittelfristig als dringend geboten. Unabhängig von der Frage, auf welchem Niveau sich der Energiebedarf stabilisieren lässt, bleibt dabei zu klären, welche Möglichkeiten sich aus technischer und wirtschaftlicher Sicht in Zukunft zur Deckung unseres Energiebedarfs anbieten. Eine aussichtsreiche Option besteht in der Nutzung regenerativer Energien in ihrer ganzen Vielfalt. Die Arbeit "Szenarien zur zukünftigen Stromversorgung, kostenoptimierte Variationen zur Versorgung Europas und seiner Nachbarn mit Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien" konzentriert sich mit der Stromversorgung auf einen Teilaspekt der Energieversorgung, der zunehmend an Wichtigkeit gewinnt und als ein Schlüssel zur nachhaltigen Energieversorgung interpretiert werden kann. Die Stromversorgung ist heute weltweit für etwa die Hälfte des anthropogenen CO2-Ausstoßes verantwortlich. In dieser Arbeit wurden anhand verschiedener Szenarien Möglichkeiten einer weitgehend CO2–neutralen Stromversorgung für Europa und seine nähere Umgebung untersucht, wobei das Szenariogebiet etwa 1,1 Mrd. Einwohner und einen Stromverbrauch von knapp 4000 TWh/a umfasst. Dabei wurde untersucht, wie die Stromversorgung aufgebaut sein sollte, damit sie möglichst kostengünstig verwirklicht werden kann. Diese Frage wurde beispielsweise für Szenarien untersucht, in denen ausschließlich heute marktverfügbare Techniken berücksichtigt wurden. Auch der Einfluss der Nutzung einiger neuer Technologien, die bisher noch in Entwicklung sind, auf die optimale Gestaltung der Stromversorgung, wurde anhand einiger Beispiele untersucht. Die Konzeption der zukünftigen Stromversorgung sollte dabei nach Möglichkeit objektiven Kriterien gehorchen, die auch die Vergleichbarkeit verschiedener Versorgungsansätze gewährleisten. Dafür wurde ein Optimierungsansatz gewählt, mit dessen Hilfe sowohl bei der Konfiguration als auch beim rechnerischen Betrieb des Stromversorgungssystems weitgehend auf subjektive Entscheidungsprozesse verzichtet werden kann. Die Optimierung hatte zum Ziel, für die definierte möglichst realitätsnahe Versorgungsaufgabe den idealen Kraftwerks- und Leitungspark zu bestimmen, der eine kostenoptimale Stromversorgung gewährleistet. Als Erzeugungsoptionen werden dabei u.a. die Nutzung Regenerativer Energien durch Wasserkraftwerke, Windenergiekonverter, Fallwindkraftwerke, Biomassekraftwerke sowie solare und geothermische Kraftwerke berücksichtigt. Abhängig von den gewählten Randbedingungen ergaben sich dabei unterschiedliche Szenarien. Das Ziel der Arbeit war, mit Hilfe unterschiedlicher Szenarien eine breite Basis als Entscheidungsgrundlage für zukünftige politische Weichenstellungen zu schaffen. Die Szenarien zeigen Optionen für eine zukünftige Gestaltung der Stromversorgung auf, machen Auswirkungen verschiedener – auch politischer – Rahmenbedingungen deutlich und stellen so die geforderte Entscheidungsgrundlage bereit. Als Grundlage für die Erstellung der Szenarien mussten die verschiedenen Potentiale erneuerbarer Energien in hoher zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung ermittelt werden, mit denen es erstmals möglich war, die Fragen einer großräumigen regenerativen Stromversorgung ohne ungesicherte Annahmen anhand einer verlässlichen Datengrundlage anzugehen. Auch die Charakteristika der verschiedensten Energiewandlungs- und Transportsysteme mussten studiert werden und sind wie deren Kosten und die verschiedenen Potentiale in der vorliegenden Arbeit ausführlich diskutiert. Als Ausgangsszenario und Bezugspunkt dient ein konservatives Grundszenario. Hierbei handelt es sich um ein Szenario für eine Stromversorgung unter ausschließlicher Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien, die wiederum ausschließlich auf heute bereits entwickelte Technologien zurückgreift und dabei für alle Komponenten die heutigen Kosten zugrundelegt. Dieses Grundszenario ist dementsprechend auch als eine Art konservative Worst-Case-Abschätzung für unsere Zukunftsoptionen bei der regenerativen Stromversorgung zu verstehen. Als Ergebnis der Optimierung basiert die Stromversorgung beim Grundszenario zum größten Teil auf der Stromproduktion aus Windkraft. Biomasse und schon heute bestehende Wasserkraft übernehmen den überwiegenden Teil der Backup-Aufgaben innerhalb des – mit leistungsstarker HGÜ (Hochspannungs–Gleichstrom–Übertragung) verknüpften – Stromversorgungsgebiets. Die Stromgestehungskosten liegen mit 4,65 €ct / kWh sehr nahe am heute Üblichen. Sie liegen niedriger als die heutigen Preisen an der Strombörse. In allen Szenarien – außer relativ teuren, restriktiv ”dezentralen” unter Ausschluss großräumig länderübergreifenden Stromtransports – spielt der Stromtransport eine wichtige Rolle. Er wird genutzt, um Ausgleichseffekte bei der dargebotsabhängigen Stromproduktion aus erneuerbaren Quellen zu realisieren, gute kostengünstige Potentiale nutzbar zu machen und um die Speicherwasserkraft sowie die dezentral genutzte Biomasse mit ihrer Speicherfähigkeit für großräumige Backup-Aufgaben zu erschließen. Damit erweist sich der Stromtransport als einer der Schlüssel zu einer kostengünstigen Stromversorgung. Dies wiederum kann als Handlungsempfehlung bei politischen Weichenstellungen interpretiert werden, die demnach gezielt auf internationale Kooperation im Bereich der Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien setzen und insbesondere den großräumigen Stromtransport mit einbeziehen sollten. Die Szenarien stellen detaillierte und verlässliche Grundlagen für wichtige politische und technologische Zukunftsentscheidungen zur Verfügung. Sie zeigen, dass bei internationaler Kooperation selbst bei konservativen Annahmen eine rein regenerative Stromversorgung möglich ist, die wirtschaftlich ohne Probleme zu realisieren wäre und verweisen den Handlungsbedarf in den Bereich der Politik. Eine wesentliche Aufgabe der Politik läge darin, die internationale Kooperation zu organisieren und Instrumente für eine Umgestaltung der Stromversorgung zu entwickeln. Dabei kann davon ausgegangen werden, dass nicht nur ein sinnvoller Weg zu einer CO2–neutralen Stromversorgung beschritten würde, sondern sich darüber hinaus ausgezeichnete Entwicklungsperspektiven für die ärmeren Nachbarstaaten der EU und Europas eröffnen.

Statistical evaluation of texture analysis from the biocrystallization method

The consumers are becoming more concerned about food quality, especially regarding how, when and where the foods are produced (Haglund et al., 1999; Kahl et al., 2004; Alföldi, et al., 2006). Therefore, during recent years there has been a growing interest in the methods for food quality assessment, especially in the picture-development methods as a complement to traditional chemical analysis of single compounds (Kahl et al., 2006). The biocrystallization as one of the picture-developing method is based on the crystallographic phenomenon that when crystallizing aqueous solutions of dihydrate CuCl2 with adding of organic solutions, originating, e.g., from crop samples, biocrystallograms are generated with reproducible crystal patterns (Kleber & Steinike-Hartung, 1959). Its output is a crystal pattern on glass plates from which different variables (numbers) can be calculated by using image analysis. However, there is a lack of a standardized evaluation method to quantify the morphological features of the biocrystallogram image. Therefore, the main sakes of this research are (1) to optimize an existing statistical model in order to describe all the effects that contribute to the experiment, (2) to investigate the effect of image parameters on the texture analysis of the biocrystallogram images, i.e., region of interest (ROI), color transformation and histogram matching on samples from the project 020E170/F financed by the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection(BMELV).The samples are wheat and carrots from controlled field and farm trials, (3) to consider the strongest effect of texture parameter with the visual evaluation criteria that have been developed by a group of researcher (University of Kassel, Germany; Louis Bolk Institute (LBI), Netherlands and Biodynamic Research Association Denmark (BRAD), Denmark) in order to clarify how the relation of the texture parameter and visual characteristics on an image is. The refined statistical model was accomplished by using a lme model with repeated measurements via crossed effects, programmed in R (version 2.1.0). The validity of the F and P values is checked against the SAS program. While getting from the ANOVA the same F values, the P values are bigger in R because of the more conservative approach. The refined model is calculating more significant P values. The optimization of the image analysis is dealing with the following parameters: ROI(Region of Interest which is the area around the geometrical center), color transformation (calculation of the 1 dimensional gray level value out of the three dimensional color information of the scanned picture, which is necessary for the texture analysis), histogram matching (normalization of the histogram of the picture to enhance the contrast and to minimize the errors from lighting conditions). The samples were wheat from DOC trial with 4 field replicates for the years 2003 and 2005, “market samples”(organic and conventional neighbors with the same variety) for 2004 and 2005, carrot where the samples were obtained from the University of Kassel (2 varieties, 2 nitrogen treatments) for the years 2004, 2005, 2006 and “market samples” of carrot for the years 2004 and 2005. The criterion for the optimization was repeatability of the differentiation of the samples over the different harvest(years). For different samples different ROIs were found, which reflect the different pictures. The best color transformation that shows efficiently differentiation is relied on gray scale, i.e., equal color transformation. The second dimension of the color transformation only appeared in some years for the effect of color wavelength(hue) for carrot treated with different nitrate fertilizer levels. The best histogram matching is the Gaussian distribution. The approach was to find a connection between the variables from textural image analysis with the different visual criteria. The relation between the texture parameters and visual evaluation criteria was limited to the carrot samples, especially, as it could be well differentiated by the texture analysis. It was possible to connect groups of variables of the texture analysis with groups of criteria from the visual evaluation. These selected variables were able to differentiate the samples but not able to classify the samples according to the treatment. Contrarily, in case of visual criteria which describe the picture as a whole there is a classification in 80% of the sample cases possible. Herewith, it clearly can find the limits of the single variable approach of the image analysis (texture analysis).

Gender and Space in Tehran

Abstract: This dissertation generally concentrates on the relationships between “gender” and “space” in the present time of urban life in capital city of Tehran. “Gender” as a changing social construct, differentiated within societies and through time, studied this time by investigation on “gender attitude” or “gender identity” means attitudes towards “gender” issues regarding Tehran residences. “Space” as a concept integrated from physical and social constituents investigated through focus on “spatial attitude” means attitudes towards using “living spaces” including private space of “house”, semi private semi public space of neighborhood and finally public spaces of the city. “Activities and practices” in space concentrated instead of “physical” space; this perspective to “space” discussed as the most justified implication of “space” in this debate regarding current situations in city of Tehran. Under a systematic approach, the interactions and interconnections between “gender” and “space” as two constituent variables of social organization investigated by focus on the different associations presented between different “gender identities” and their different “spatial identities”; in fact, “spatial identity” manifests “gender identity” and in opposite direction, “spatial identity” influences to construction of “gender identity”. The hypotheses of case study in Tehran defined as followed: • “Gender identity” is reflected on “spatial identity”. Various “gender identities” in Tehran present different perspectives of “space” or they identify “space” by different values. • As “gender identity” internalizes patriarchal oppression, it internalizes associated “spatial” oppression too. • Within the same social class, different “gender identities” related to men and women, present interconnected qualities, compared with “gender identities” related to men or women of different social classes. This situation could be found in the “spatial” perspectives of different groups of men and women too. • Following the upper hypotheses, “spatial” oppression differs among social classes of Tehran living in different parts of this city. This research undertook a qualitative study in Tehran by interviewing with different parents of both young daughter and son regarding their attitudes towards gender issues from one side and activities and behaviors of their children in different spaces from the other side. Results of case study indicated the parallel changes of parents’ attitudes towards “gender” and “spatial” issues; it means strong connection between “gender” and “space”. It revealed association of “equal” spatial attitudes with “open, neutral” gender attitudes, and also the association of “biased, unequal” spatial identities with “conservative patriarchal” gender identities. It was cleared too that this variable concept – gender space - changes by “sex”; mothers comparing fathers presented more equitable notions towards “gender spatial” issues. It changes too by “social class” and “educational level”, that means “gender spatial” identity getting more open equitable among more educated people of middle and upper classes. “Breadwinning status in the family” also presents its effect on the changes of “gender spatial” identity so participant breadwinners in the family expressed relatively more equitable notions comparing householders and housekeepers. And finally, “gender spatial” identity changes through “place” in the city and regarding South – North line of the city. The illustration of changes of “gender spatial” identity from “open” to “conservative” among society indicated not only vertical variation across social classes, furthermore the horizontal changing among each social class. These results also confirmed hypotheses while made precision on the third one regarding variable of sex. More investigations pointed to some inclusive spatial attitudes throughout society penetrated to different groups of “gender identities”, to “opens” as to “conservatives”, also to groups between them, by two opposite features; first kind, conservative biased spatial practices in favor of patriarchal gender relations and the second, progressive neutral actions in favor of equal gender relations. While the major reason for the inclusive conservative practices was referred to the social insecurity for women, the second neutral ones associated to more formal & safer spaces of the city. In conclusion, while both trends are associated deeply with the important issues of “sex” & “body” in patriarchal thoughts, still strong, they are the consequences of the transitional period of social change in macro level, and the challenges involved regarding interactions between social orders, between old system of patriarchy, the traditional biased “gender spatial” relations and the new one of equal relations. The case study drew an inhomogeneous illustration regarding gender spatial aspects of life in Tehran, the opposite groups of “open” and “conservative”, and the large group of “semi open semi conservative” between them. In macro perspective it presents contradicted social groups according their general life styles; they are the manifestations of challenging trends towards tradition and modernity in Iranian society. This illustration while presents unstable social situations, necessitates probing solutions for social integration; exploring the directions could make heterogeneous social groups close in the way they think and the form they live in spaces. Democratic approaches like participatory development planning might be helpful for the city in its way to more solidarity and sustainability regarding its social spatial – gender as well – development, in macro levels of social spatial planning and in micro levels of physical planning, in private space of house and in public spaces of the city.

Cooperation or Confrontation?

With globalization and increased connectedness, migration has become a political issue. Nevertheless, without citizenship participation in the political system in the host society is limited. Based on a neo-institutionalist approach and referring to political opportunity structure theory, this paper analyzes differences in means of political participation by migrants in two cities, one in the U.S. and one in Germany. Specific focus is put on the welfare state as one factor potentially influencing forms of participation of migrants. From interviews with migrants, local governments, and organizations, this paper establishes that political participation in the German city, Essen, is more institutionalized than in the U.S. city, Newark, NJ, where demonstrations and rallies play a more significant role. Looking at these findings, this paper explains the differences with a variation in the political opportunity structure between the two cities. Whereas in the conservative-corporatist welfare state, ideas of collective bar-gaining and the conferral of social rights to migrants leads to government-created bodies for migrant participation, in the U.S. city, these bodies do not exist and, therefore, migrants use different means of political participation. Through the conferral of social rights on migrants as well, in Germany, the cleavage between migrants and majority society has been pacified. In the U.S. city, where this is not the case, demonstrations and rallies are more common.

Development of directly modulated high speed telecommunication lasers based on surface defined feedback gratings

High-speed semiconductor lasers are an integral part in the implemen- tation of high-bit-rate optical communications systems. They are com- pact, rugged, reliable, long-lived, and relatively inexpensive sources of coherent light. Due to the very low attenuation window that exists in the silica based optical fiber at 1.55 μm and the zero dispersion point at 1.3 μm, they have become the mainstay of optical fiber com- munication systems. For the fabrication of lasers with gratings such as, distributed bragg reflector or distributed feedback lasers, etching is the most critical step. Etching defines the lateral dimmensions of the structure which determines the performance of optoelectronic devices. In this thesis studies and experiments were carried out about the exist- ing etching processes for InP and a novel dry etching process was de- veloped. The newly developed process was based on Cl2/CH4/H2/Ar chemistry and resulted in very smooth surfaces and vertical side walls. With this process the grating definition was significantly improved as compared to other technological developments in the respective field. A surface defined grating definition approach is used in this thesis work which does not require any re-growth steps and makes the whole fabrication process simpler and cost effective. Moreover, this grating fabrication process is fully compatible with nano-imprint lithography and can be used for high throughput low-cost manufacturing. With usual etching techniques reported before it is not possible to etch very deep because of aspect ratio dependent etching phenomenon where with increasing etch depth the etch rate slows down resulting in non-vertical side walls and footing effects. Although with our de- veloped process quite vertical side walls were achieved but footing was still a problem. To overcome the challenges related to grating defini- tion and deep etching, a completely new three step gas chopping dry etching process was developed. This was the very first time that a time multiplexed etching process for an InP based material system was demonstrated. The developed gas chopping process showed extra ordinary results including high mask selectivity of 15, moderate etch- ing rate, very vertical side walls and a record high aspect ratio of 41. Both the developed etching processes are completely compatible with nano imprint lithography and can be used for low-cost high-throughput fabrication. A large number of broad area laser, ridge waveguide laser, distributed feedback laser, distributed bragg reflector laser and coupled cavity in- jection grating lasers were fabricated using the developed one step etch- ing process. Very extensive characterization was done to optimize all the important design and fabrication parameters. The devices devel- oped have shown excellent performance with a very high side mode suppression ratio of more than 52 dB, an output power of 17 mW per facet, high efficiency of 0.15 W/A, stable operation over temperature and injected currents and a threshold current as low as 30 mA for almost 1 mm long device. A record high modulation bandwidth of 15 GHz with electron-photon resonance and open eye diagrams for 10 Gbps data transmission were also shown.

Preliminary Observations on Program Instability

This white paper reports emerging findings at the end of Phase I of the Lean Aircraft Initiative in the Policy focus group area. Specifically, it provides details about research on program instability. Its objective is to discuss high-level findings detailing: 1) the relative contribution of different factors to a program’s overall instability; 2) the cost impact of program instability on acquisition programs; and 3) some strategies recommended by program managers for overcoming and/or mitigating the negative effects of program instability on their programs. Because this report comes as this research is underway, this is not meant to be a definitive document on the subject. Rather, is it anticipated that this research may potentially produce a number of reports on program instability-related topics. The government managers of military acquisition programs rated annual budget or production rate changes, changes in requirements, and technical difficulties as the three top contributors, respectively, to program instability. When asked to partition actual variance in their program’s planned cost and schedule to each of these factors, it was found that the combined effects of unplanned budget and requirement changes accounted for 5.2% annual cost growth and 20% total program schedule slip. At a rate of approximately 5% annual cost growth from these factors, it is easy to see that even conservative estimates of the cost benefits to be gained from acquisition reforms and process improvements can quickly be eclipsed by the added cost associated with program instability. Program management practices involving the integration of stakeholders from throughout the value chain into the decision making process were rated the most effective at avoiding program instability. The use of advanced information technologies was rated the most effective at mitigating the negative impact of program instability.

Preliminary Observations on Program Instability

This white paper reports emerging findings at the end of Phase I of the Lean Aircraft Initiative in the Policy focus group area. Specifically, it provides details about research on program instability. Its objective is to discuss high-level findings detailing: 1) the relative contribution of different factors to a program’s overall instability; 2) the cost impact of program instability on acquisition programs; and 3) some strategies recommended by program managers for overcoming and/or mitigating the negative effects of program instability on their programs. Because this report comes as this research is underway, this is not meant to be a definitive document on the subject. Rather, is it anticipated that this research may potentially produce a number of reports on program instability-related topics. The government managers of military acquisition programs rated annual budget or production rate changes, changes in requirements, and technical difficulties as the three top contributors, respectively, to program instability. When asked to partition actual variance in their program’s planned cost and schedule to each of these factors, it was found that the combined effects of unplanned budget and requirement changes accounted for 5.2% annual cost growth and 20% total program schedule slip. At a rate of approximately 5% annual cost growth from these factors, it is easy to see that even conservative estimates of the cost benefits to be gained from acquisition reforms and process improvements can quickly be eclipsed by the added cost associated with program instability. Program management practices involving the integration of stakeholders from throughout the value chain into the decision making process were rated the most effective at avoiding program instability. The use of advanced information technologies was rated the most effective at mitigating the negative impact of program instability.

Copoasú y su plan de negocio

Copoasú será una empresa innovadora en donde se ofrecerán postres típicos colombinos con preparación tradicional y tipo gourmet, combinados con una gran variedad de bebidas típicas y tradicionales que transportarán a las personas a su lugar de origen. El punto de venta de Copoasú estará dividido con decoración que concuerde con las regionales naturales de Colombia, atendido con servicio de excelente calidad para que el cliente se sienta como en casa. Los postres serán elaborados en el mismo punto de venta por practicidad y frescura del producto por lo que el punto de venta va a tener la dotación y personal adecuado para este tipo de preparación, además de unos excelentes insumos que nos permita mantener la misma calidad en el producto. De igual manera se realizarán controles frecuentes con el fin de comprobar que no se está perdiendo la receta original, siempre buscando el mejoramiento continuo de todos y cada uno de los productos ofrecidos por Copoasú. Para la escogencia de la localización del punto de venta, como del mercado, del mercado se realizó una segmentación geográfica, escogiendo la localidad de Chapinero por tener zonas representativas para el mercado de la empresa como lo son la zona T y G .El mercado objetivo son de 345.325 personas de estrato 4,5 y 6 de edades entre 24 y 38 años con ingresos mensuales promedio entre 800.000 y 1’700.000. Se analizaron los principales competidores de Copoasu firmas como Miryam Camhi, quien lleva más de veinte y cinco años en el mercado; H&B con apenas un año de funcionamiento; Rausch, que tiene muy poco tiempo de ingresó al mercado y finalmente Jaques, quien lleva diez años de funcionamiento. Bajo los supuestos conservadores establecidos para el modelo financiero Copoasú, demostró ser viable según el análisis del balance proyectado. El punto IV de equilibrio se alcanza al finalizar el segundo año de operación.

La formación del pensamiento político del partido conservador colombiano en el siglo XIX. Estudio de caso : los escritos políticos de Mariano Ospina Rodríguez y José Eusebio Caro

Esta investigación describe la formación del pensamiento político del Partido Conservador Colombiano en el siglo XIX, en los escritos de Mariano Ospina Rodríguez y José Eusebio Caro, donde reaccionan con contundencia frente a los excesos del radicalismo liberal del gobierno de José Hilario López. Para entender la reacción conservadora, se utiliza como herramienta teórica el trabajo de Robert Nisbet, “Conservadurismo”.

Incidencia de la política exterior de China y la Federación Rusa en el mantenimiento del desarrollo de armas nucleares y enriquecimiento de uranio iraníes, durante la primera administración del Presidente Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2002-2005)

El giro que el sistema internacional dio tras los atentados perpetrados el 11 de septiembre de 2001 fue de enorme importancia para la política exterior de Irán y su posicionamiento en el sistema internacional. En efecto, la lucha guerra contra el terrorismo que Estados Unidos inició y que finalmente desembocaría en las incursiones armadas a Afganistán e Irak -ambos países limítrofes de Irán, en 2001 y 2003 respectivamente, así como la inclusión de Irán por parte de la administración Bush en 2002 como parte del denominado Eje del mal, generaron en el imaginario iraní una idea de amenaza internacional y por lo mismo, la necesidad de hacerse fuerte con el fin de mantener su integridad territorial y gubernamental. Así pues, una compleja situación económica y social sumada a una fuerte coalición del partido conservador iraní -uno de los más fuertes del país, soportado por el Ayatolá Alí Jamenei, autoridad suprema de la nueva República, un nuevo líder de corte conservador, llegaría a la presidencia: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, un líder controversial y problemático que desde su primera campaña presidencial en 2002 defendería el derecho de la República a desarrollar armas nucleares para fines pacíficos. El verdadero inconveniente surge cuando occidente, en cabeza de los Estados Unidos –en compañía de algunas potencias europeas como lo son Alemania, Francia y Gran Bretaña, duda sobre esta última afirmación. Esta investigación pretende profundizar cada uno de los elementos anteriormente mencionados así como establecer la forma en la cual China y Rusia –países que ven de forma diferenciada el manejo de arsenal nuclear, logran configurarse y acreditar este desafío ante la comunidad internacional.

La ética religiosa del catolicismo utilizada como elemento de cohesión social en el proceso de consolidación política de la República de la Nueva Granada

Los tradicionales partidos políticos colombianos —Liberal y Conservador— en sus orígenes debatieron por el rol que debía desempeñar la Iglesia Católica en el Estado, las posturas implicaban optar por un poder civil independiente o sujeto al poder religioso, éste debate sirvió para que las comunidades políticas justificaran confrontaciones civiles y reformas constitucionales. Sin embargo, adviértase que estas diferencias conceptuales entre las comunidades políticas permitieron integrar a sectores de la población en torno a los partidos políticos.