Déficits y sesgos neurocognitivos y afectivos en la toma de decisiones de jugadores patológios y otros trastornos

Los déficits y sesgos tanto cognitivos como afectivos han sido fuente creciente de interés en el ámbito de la Neurociéncia de los Trastornos Mentales. En este proyecto, que se inicia en 2004 y finaliza a finales de 2008, se han estudiado los siguientes Trastornos Mentales: Juego Patológico (JP), Trastornos de la Conducta Alimentaria (TCA) y Trastornos Depresivos. En esta memoria nos centraremos en resumir parte de los resultados obtenidos en un estudio sobre JP y toma de decisiones (articulo en revisión y pendiente de aceptación) y otro de funcionamiento ejecutivo en JP y Bulimia Nerviosa (BN) (artículo en prensa). Resumiento el primer estudio los JP (N=32) muestran un proceso de toma de decisiones sesgado por la búsqueda de recompensa en forma de elevada toma de riesgos en comparación con Controles Sanos (CS). También se observan déficits en flexibilidad cognitiva pero no en control inhibitorio entre JP y CS. Los resultados descartan miopía conductual para lo toma de decisiones en JP, pero apuntan a un sesgo cognitivo-afectivo, en el que el control de los impulsos jugaría un papel relevante, en forma de ilusión de control, para los procesos de toma de decisiones con recompensa inmediata pero con castigo diferido, medidos por una prueba de toma de decisiones (IGT ABCD). En el segundo estudio, basándose en las vulnerabilidadades compartidas descritas entre JP y BN se comparó el funcionamiento ejecutivo de mujeres con JP y BN. Tras la administración del WCST y Stroop y ajustando el análisis por edad y educación, las JP mostraron mayor afectación, en concreto mayor porcentaje de errores perservaritvos, menor nivel de respuestas conceptuales y mayor número de ensayos administrados, mientras que el grupo de BN mostró mayor porcentaje de errores no persevarativos. Ambas, mujeres JP y BN mostraron disfunción ejecutiva en relación a los CS pero con diferentes correlatos específcos.

Complexity and Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Problemsing.

I develop a model of endogenous bounded rationality due to search costs, arising implicitly from the problems complexity. The decision maker is not required to know the entire structure of the problem when making choices but can think ahead, through costly search, to reveal more of it. However, the costs of search are not assumed exogenously; they are inferred from revealed preferences through her choices. Thus, bounded rationality and its extent emerge endogenously: as problems become simpler or as the benefits of deeper search become larger relative to its costs, the choices more closely resemble those of a rational agent. For a fixed decision problem, the costs of search will vary across agents. For a given decision maker, they will vary across problems. The model explains, therefore, why the disparity, between observed choices and those prescribed under rationality, varies across agents and problems. It also suggests, under reasonable assumptions, an identifying prediction: a relation between the benefits of deeper search and the depth of the search. As long as calibration of the search costs is possible, this can be tested on any agent-problem pair. My approach provides a common framework for depicting the underlying limitations that force departures from rationality in different and unrelated decision-making situations. Specifically, I show that it is consistent with violations of timing independence in temporal framing problems, dynamic inconsistency and diversification bias in sequential versus simultaneous choice problems, and with plausible but contrasting risk attitudes across small- and large-stakes gambles.

Coordination in Public Good Provision: How Individual Volunteering is Impacted by the Volunteering of Others

In this analysis, we examine the relationship between an individual's decision to volunteer and the average level of volunteering in the community where the individual resides. Our theoretical model is based on a coordination game , in which volunteering by others is informative regarding the benefit from volunteering. We demonstrate that the interaction between this information and one's private information makes it more likely that he or she will volunteer, given a higher level of contributions by his or her peers. We complement this theoretical work with an empirical analysis using Census 2000 Summary File 3 and Current Population Survey (CPS) 2004-2007 September supplement file data. We control for various individual and community characteristics, and employ robustness checks to verify the results of the baseline analysis. We additionally use an innovative instrumental variables strategy to account for reflection bias and endogeneity caused by selective sorting by individuals into neighborhoods, which allows us to argue for a causal interpretation. The empirical results in the baseline, as well as all robustness analyses, verify the main result of our theoretical model, and we employ a more general structure to further strengthen our results.

Coordination in Public Good Provision: How Individual Volunteering is Impacted by the Volunteering of Others

In this analysis, we examine the relationship between an individual’s decision to volunteer and the average level of volunteering in the community where the individual resides. Our theoretical model is based on a coordination game , in which volunteering by others is informative regarding the benefit from volunteering. We demonstrate that the interaction between this information and one’s private information makes it more likely that he or she will volunteer, given a higher level of contributions by his or her peers. We complement this theoretical work with an empirical analysis using Census 2000 Summary File 3 and Current Population Survey (CPS) 2004-2007 September supplement file data. We control for various individual and community characteristics, and employ robustness checks to verify the results of the baseline analysis. We additionally use an innovative instrumental variables strategy to account for reflection bias and endogeneity caused by selective sorting by individuals into neighbourhoods, which allows us to argue for a causal interpretation. The empirical results in the baseline, as well as all robustness analyses, verify the main result of our theoretical model, and we employ a more general structure to further strengthen our results.

Self-Confidence, Overconfidence and Prenatal Testosterone Exposure: Evidence from the Lab

This paper examines whether the degree of confidence and overconfidence in one's ability is determined biologically. In articular, we study whether foetal testosterone exposure correlates with an incentive-compatible measure of confidence within an experimental setting. We find that men (rather than women) who were exposed to high testosterone levels in their mother's womb are less likely to overestimate their actual performance, which in turn helps them to gain higher monetary rewards. Men exposed to low prenatal testosterone levels, instead, set unrealistically high expectations which results in self-defeating behaviour. These results from the lab are able to reconcile hitherto disconnected evidence from the field, by providing a link between traders'overconfidence bias, long-term financial returns and prenatal testosterone exposure.

The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis

Using a panel of 38 economies, over the period 2001 to 2010, we analyse the link between diversification in equity portfolios and different facets of education. We find that traditionally used measures of education play an important role in reducing equity home bias. After separating countries according to their level of financial development, we find that less developed economies tend to benefit more from an improvement in the level of education compared to their more developed counterparts. We also find that the beneficial effect of education is more pronounced during the most recent financial crisis, especially for economies with less developed financial markets.

Perceiving Prospects Properly

When an agent chooses between prospects, noise in information processing generates an effect akin to the winner’s curse. Statistically unbiased perception systematically overvalues the chosen action because it fails to account for the possibility that noise is responsible for making the preferred action appear to be optimal. The optimal perception patterns share key features with prospect theory, namely, overweighting of small probability events (and corresponding underweighting of high probability events), status quo bias, and reference-dependent S-shaped valuations. These biases arise to correct for the winner’s curse effect.

Factors Affecting Audit Quality in the 2007 UK Regulatory Environment: Perceptions of Chief Financial Officers, Audit Committee Chairs and Audit Engagement Partners

In line with global changes, the UK regulatory regime for audit and corporate governance has changed significantly since the Enron scandal, with an increased role for audit committees and independent inspection of audit firms. UK listed company chief financial officers (CFOs), audit committee chairs (ACCs) and audit partners (APs) were surveyed in 2007 to obtain views on the impact of 36 economic and regulatory factors on audit quality. 498 usable responses were received, representing a response rate of 36%. All groups rated various audit committee interactions with auditors among the factors most enhancing audit quality. Exploratory factor analysis reduces the 36 factors to nine uncorrelated dimensions. In order of extraction, these are: economic risk; audit committee activities; risk of regulatory action; audit firm ethics; economic independence of auditor; audit partner rotation; risk of client loss; audit firm size; and, lastly, International Standards on Auditing (ISAs) and audit inspection. In addition to the activities of the audit committee, risk factors for the auditor (both economic and certain regulatory risks) are believed to most enhance audit quality. However, ISAs and the audit inspection regime, aspects of the ‘standards-surveillance compliance’ regulatory system, are viewed as less effective. Respondents commented that aspects of the changed regime are largely process and compliance driven, with high costs for limited benefits, supporting psychological bias regulation theory that claims there is overconfidence that a useful regulatory intervention exists.

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

Problèmes d'échantillonnage lors d'une enquête sur la plombémie d'enfants citadin [Sampling problems in a survey of blood lead levels in city children].

A study on lead pollution was carried out on a sample of ca. 300 city children. This paper presents the errors producing bias in the sample. It is emphasized that, in Switzerland, the difference between the Swiss and the migrant population (the latter being mainly Italian and Spanish) must be taken into account.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

Validation and long-term evaluation of a modified on-line chiral analytical method for therapeutic drug monitoring of (R,S)-methadone in clinical samples.

Matrix effects, which represent an important issue in liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry or tandem mass spectrometry detection, should be closely assessed during method development. In the case of quantitative analysis, the use of stable isotope-labelled internal standard with physico-chemical properties and ionization behaviour similar to the analyte is recommended. In this paper, an example of the choice of a co-eluting deuterated internal standard to compensate for short-term and long-term matrix effect in the case of chiral (R,S)-methadone plasma quantification is reported. The method was fully validated over a concentration range of 5-800 ng/mL for each methadone enantiomer with satisfactory relative bias (-1.0 to 1.0%), repeatability (0.9-4.9%) and intermediate precision (1.4-12.0%). From the results obtained during validation, a control chart process during 52 series of routine analysis was established using both intermediate precision standard deviation and FDA acceptance criteria. The results of routine quality control samples were generally included in the +/-15% variability around the target value and mainly in the two standard deviation interval illustrating the long-term stability of the method. The intermediate precision variability estimated in method validation was found to be coherent with the routine use of the method. During this period, 257 trough concentration and 54 peak concentration plasma samples of patients undergoing (R,S)-methadone treatment were successfully analysed for routine therapeutic drug monitoring.

Revisiting the specificity of the MHC class II transactivator CIITA in vivo.

CIITA is a master regulatory factor for the expression of MHC class II (MHC-II) and accessory genes involved in Ag presentation. It has recently been suggested that CIITA also regulates numerous other genes having diverse functions within and outside the immune system. To determine whether these genes are indeed relevant targets of CIITA in vivo, we studied their expression in CIITA-transgenic and CIITA-deficient mice. In contrast to the decisive control of MHC-II and related genes by CIITA, nine putative non-MHC target genes (Eif3s2, Kpna6, Tap1, Yars, Col1a2, Ctse, Ptprr, Tnfsf6 and Plxna1) were found to be CIITA independent in all cell types examined. Two other target genes, encoding IL-4 and IFN-gamma, were indeed found to be up- and down-regulated, respectively, in CIITA-transgenic CD4(+) T cells. However, there was no correlation between MHC-II expression and this Th2 bias at the level of individual transgenic T cells, indicating an indirect control by CIITA. These results show that MHC-II-restricted Ag presentation, and its indirect influences on T cells, remains the only pathway under direct control by CIITA in vivo. They also imply that precisely regulated MHC-II expression is essential for maintaining a proper Th1-Th2 balance.

System GMM estimation with a small sample

Properties of GMM estimators for panel data, which have become very popular in the empirical economic growth literature, are not well known when the number of individuals is small. This paper analyses through Monte Carlo simulations the properties of various GMM and other estimators when the number of individuals is the one typically available in country growth studies. It is found that, provided that some persistency is present in the series, the system GMM estimator has a lower bias and higher efficiency than all the other estimators analysed, including the standard first-differences GMM estimator.

Politicians in the Media: Determinants of Legislators' Presence and Prominence in Swiss Newspapers

In times of increasing "mediatization" of politics, when voters and their elected representatives primarily communicate through the media, the question of who gets into the news and why becomes of the utmost importance. This article examines the determinants of Swiss legislators' presence and prominence in the print media by focusing on three competing approaches drawn from communication studies. The first approach regards the media as a "mirror" of political reality and argues that the media focus on the most active deputies in parliament. Second, news values theory predicts that "authoritative" politicians in leadership positions get the most media coverage. Third, theories of "news bias" hold that the media privilege legislators who are in line with their own editorial interests. Overall, the statistical analyses show an important leadership effect and provide strong support for the second explanation. While deputies in official functions get the most extensive news coverage, media access can also be won by parliamentary activity. The least support is shown for the news bias theory, although some newspapers try to localize parliamentary news coverage by focusing on deputies from their own media market.