Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Silva Porto na África Central – VIYE / ANGOLA: história social e transcultural de um sertanejo (1839-1890)

O tema de análise neste trabalho é o fenómeno da transculturação em Angola no século XIX. É uma pesquisa centrada na história de vida do sertanejo António Francisco Ferreira da Silva Porto, entre 1839 e 1890, no meio sócio-cultural umbundu. Transculturação é um termo polissémico que integra aspectos da aculturação sendo aqui utilizado no âmbito da História de vida de Silva Porto. Descodifica-se a narrativa no Diário de viagem que Silva Porto redigiu acerca da sua percepção sobre África e do seu percurso de convivência no processo da sua integração em África Central. A transculturação está nessa narrativa e reflecte múltiplas vivências, sobretudo, a visão social do “Outro” em relação à sua própria identidade de origem. Silva Porto é encarado neste trabalho como sujeito, autor, actor principal e protagonista do fenómeno da transculturação, na região do Viye em Angola. Identificaram-se cinco variáveis do fenómeno transcultural, presentes na trajectória de Silva Porto: o casamento, a língua, as viagens, a alimentação e a religião, com particular destaque para o casamento enquanto variável determinante na integração de Silva Porto na sociedade umbundu. Estas variáveis são apresentadas num iceberg de transculturação de Silva Porto que, por sua vez, permitem avaliar as diferenças culturais e o cruzamento entre as culturas sob um processo de alteridade, em confluência com um olhar distanciado. É um estudo onde perpassa o crivo das construções e representações de Silva Porto tendo em conta o seu contexto cultural de origem, predominantemente português, a sua adaptação e inserção nas culturas africanas, particularmente nas práticas sócio-culturais umbundu. A questão de partida deste estudo foi: Quem é Silva Porto depois de 50 anos de vivências em Angola?

Home Banking

The object of this dissertation is focused on the study of the home banking service and how the allocation of losses due to computer fraud is processed in the scope of this service. When considering the questions raised by the allocation of losses associated with fraudulent operations, it is important to consider, mainly, the behaviour of the user of the home banking service. In our opinion, courts have been too demanding towards the user when judging his action in the use of this service. In this study, we have concluded that, when the user “falls” into a computer fraud scheme, he should not be liable for gross negligent behaviour, even if, due to the fraud, the user revealed all his access codes to a hacker on a page similar to that of his bank. In general, such facts will not be sufficient to qualify the user’s action as grossly negligent. Therefore, the user, under the terms of the Payment Services’ System, must bear the loss up to a maximum of €150, and the bank will face the remainder of the losses. However, if the user, victim of a fraudulent technique, ignored the safety warnings issued by the bank, one must consider, given the specific case, that he contributed to gross negligence in unauthorised payment transactions. Thus, the user must bear all the losses up to the moment when he notifies the bank about the unauthorised transactions. It is the bank’s responsibility to, given the specific case, adduce evidence of the client’s contribution to the identified losses.

Simulação de comportamento de fogo em zonas florestais no alentejo central : comparação de modelos de combustível

Anualmente os incêndios florestais causam prejuízos por territórios por todo o mundo. Nas últimas décadas, estudos sobre o comportamento do fogo e avanços em tecnologias SIG, deram origem a modelos matemáticos de previsão e à sua inserção em sistemas informáticos de simulação de comportamento e propagação de fogo. A utilização destes necessita da caracterização das variáveis que determinam o comportamento do fogo: variáveis topográficas, condições meteorológicas e combustível vegetal. A vegetação assume-se como a única variável que pode ser controlada através de medidas de gestão e a mais estudada por todo o mundo. A sua caracterização é geralmente efetuada através de modelos de combustível, que consiste num conjunto de propriedades quantificáveis utilizadas nos modelos de comportamento do fogo. Através da utilização do simulador FARSITE, foi efetuada a simulação de comportamento de fogo em áreas de ocorrência de incêndios florestais localizadas na região do Alentejo Central, Portugal, recorrendo a diversos conjuntos de modelos de combustível para caracterizar a vegetação. Os resultados evidenciam, no geral, um maior rigor dos modelos de combustível customizados na caracterização da vegetação da área de estudo.

Banking crises: The impact of financial liberalization

This paper intends to study whether financial liberalization tends to increase the likelihood of systemic banking crises. I used a sample of 79 countries with data spanning from 1973 to 2005 to run a panel probit model. I found that, if anything, financial liberalization as measured across seven different dimensions tends to decrease the probability of occurrence of a systemic banking crisis. I went further and did several robustness tests – used a conditional probit model, tested for different durations of liberalization impact and reduced the sample by considering only the first crisis event for each country. Main results still verified, proving the results’ robustness.

How to take advantage of wine tourism: Creation of a new concept for central Alentejo based on its potential and worldwide success factors

Wine Tourism is gaining importance in today’s world and more destinations and establishments have been arising. After understanding the importance of this economic activity and the factors it must have to succeed, a new project was conceived for Central Alentejo taking into account its potential. This project is an example of how to take advantage of Wine Tourism in wine regions that are underexplored, such as Aldeias de Montoito, the village near Redondo to which a Business Plan will be created, explaining the strategies to pursue in order to have a successful Wine Tourism destination.

Reporting Income Taxes in the Banking Sector In Angola - Accounting, Tax Regulation and Financial Reporting Evidences

This research provides an insight into income taxes reporting in Angola, based on hand collected data from the annual reports of banks. Empirical studies on Angolan companies are scarce, in part due to the limited access to data. The results show that income taxes’ reporting has improved over the years 2010-2013, becoming more reliable and understandable. The Angolan Government is boosting the economic growth through tax benefits in the investment in public debt, which cause a reduction in the banks’ effective tax rate. The new income tax law will reduce the statutory tax rate from 2015 onwards and change the taxable income, resulting in shifting the focus to promoting private investment.

Portuguese commercial banking: An assessment of competition in the 1960-2013 period

Strong consolidation is one of the most evident developments of banking markets around the world in recent decades. This change is raising questions on how and to what an extent competition is affected by the expansion of the largest banks. The aim of the present study is to measure the degree of competition in the Portuguese commercial banking market in the long-run, during the period ranging from1960 to 2013, by using the non-structural model developed by Panzar and Rosse. The main findings are that the Portuguese banking system, despite the legal restrictions in place, operated mostly in a market with some degree of competition and, at some points in time, presented some interesting competitive features. More recently, it has evolved into functioning as a cartel.

Caraterização e análise das admissões hospitalares na urgência do Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Central, EPE : um estudo com os utentes inscritos no Agrupamento de Centros de Saúde de Lisboa Central

RESUMO - Objetivo: Caraterizar e analisar o acesso dos utentes inscritos no Agrupamento de Centros de Saúde Lisboa Central ao serviço de urgência do hospital de referência (Hospital de S. José). Metodologia: O presente estudo é do tipo observacional, descritivo, transversal e exploratório. A análise da informação incidiu sobre a base de dados cedida pelo CHLC que continha os registos de todas as admissões do ano de 2014 referentes ao Serviço de Urgência Polivalente do CHLC, foram analisados 81928 episódios e 15042 episódios referentes a utentes frequentadores. Resultados: A proximidade ao SU é um fator que potencia a procura de cuidados hospitalares urgentes, no entanto, o facto de o utente não possuir médico de família não se encontra relacionado com a procura do serviço de urgência. Metades das admissões são consideradas “pouco urgentes” (pulseira verde), não existindo uma variação significativa entre as unidades funcionais e o tipo de modelo das mesmas (UCSP ou USF) no que respeita à procura das urgências por parte dos seus utentes. Conclui-se ainda que o horário de funcionamento dos CSP encontra-se de acordo com as necessidades dos utentes considerando que a maior procura de cuidados urgentes ocorre durante o horário de funcionamento dos centros de saúde. Conclusões: A procura de cuidados hospitalares urgentes por parte dos utentes do ACES Lisboa Central é significativa e maioritariamente injustificada do ponto de vista clínico, pelo que revela-se necessário repensar nas estratégias ao nível dos CSP para responder às efetivas necessidades em saúde.

Optimização do nível de serviço de um armazém central

O estudo que se apresenta nesta dissertação reporta-se ao trabalho realizado na empresa Tintas Robbialac S.A., no Departamento de Logística, nomeadamente no Armazém Central (AC), entre Março e Agosto de 2012. Os principais objectivos a atingir eram:  Estudo do Nível de Serviço mensal realizado no AC na separação de encomendas;  Sistematização dos erros de separação de encomendas através da análise diária das faltas;  Identificação das causas das faltas através da análise “Caso a Caso”;  Análise das Anomalias de Entrega (clientes internos/Lojas próprias) e das Notas de Crédito (clientes externos);  Propostas de melhoria que resultassem numa optimização do Nível de Serviço prestado pelo AC. Desenvolveram-se diversos indicadores e mapas que permitiram uma avaliação/análise do nível de serviço realizado:  Nível de Serviço do AC, desde 2010;  Análise diária do Nível de Serviço para o AC e para o Armazém Regional de Ramalde;  Identificação, triagem e mapeamento das Anomalias de Entrega em lojas abastecidas pelo AC (clientes internos);  Identificação, triagem e mapeamento das Notas de Crédito (clientes externos). Através do estudo destes mapas e recorrendo a métricas como, por exemplo, o volume, a quantidade, as linhas encomendadas versus expedidas e as cargas expedidas foi possível identificar um nível de serviço para a companhia. De Janeiro a Julho de 2012, considerando o volume separado obteve-se uma média de 90% que representou um aumento de 3% em relação a 2010. Paralelamente reformulou-se o processo de reporting dos clientes internos (anomalias de entrega), resultando num aumento do n.º e da qualidade das ocorrências, atingindo-se um pico de reportes em Junho. Em relação às Notas de Crédito, o mapa criado permite analisar pormenorizadamente todas as ocorrências. Em termos qualitativos as anomalias de entrega não apresentam ocorrências significativas representando uma percentagem mínima de ocorrências quando comparada com o motivo de acordo. A sistematização desenvolvida irá permitir medir o nível de serviço e identificar as causas de faltas e de erros na separação de encomendas que permitem agir e tomar acções correctivas.

Relatório de estágio no departamento central de investigação e acção penal

The means of obtaining evidence, the amount of evidence obtained, the number of defendants related to each criminal case and the gravity of the crimes for which the magistrates of the Department are holders of penal action, define its real importance to the Rule of Law. I have deeply studied the subject of the institution of hierarchical intervention required by the assistant and the application of an opening statement by the defendant, starting from a hypothetical case, provided when the query of an investigation with the subject of the crime of active corruption, where this institution was called as a reaction to the archiving dispatch delivered by the Public Ministry. I have study about the implementation of the institution of provisional suspension of the process, specifically in the scope of fiscal criminality, analyzing the effective satisfaction of the purposes of the sentences in two slopes: general prevention and special prevention. I went for my first time to a Central Court of Criminal Instruction, where I attended the measures of inquiry and instructive debate of a process that culminated with the prosecution and pronunciation of the defendants. In addition to this criminal experience, I have deepened and consolidated the academic knowledge with the study of various criminal cases from various fields in the scope of criminality investigated by the Department. I could therefore check the basis of procedural delays, regarding to our legal system, especially in this type of crime, raising issues that I analyzed and discussed, always in a critical and academic way. I had the opportunity to attend and witness a seminar in the Lisbon Directorate of Finance as well of entering the Centre for Judicial Studies to attend a conference on the International Anti-Corruption Day. Focus on the investigatory importance of the international judicial cooperation, through the various organs, with special interest to EUROJUST. I comprehended the organization and functioning of these communitarian organs and means of communication of procedural acts, in particular, the rogatory letters and european arrest warrants. This involvement is motivated by the moratorium factor of the investigations where rogatory letters are necessary for the acquisition of evidence or information relevant to the good continuation of the process. For this reason the judicial cooperation through the relevant communitarian organs, translates a streamlined response between the competent judicial authorities of the Member States, through the National Member that integrates EUROJUST. This report aims to highlight some of the difficulties and procedural issues that Public Prosecutors of DCIAP and criminal police bodies that assist them, face in combating violent and organized crime, of national and transnational nature, of particular complexity, according to the specifics of criminal types.

The determinants of net interest margins & net interest spreads in the Russian & Japanese Commercial Banking sectors

This study presents an empirical investigation of the determinants of net interest margins and spreads in the Russian and Japanese banking sectors with a particular focus on commercial banks. Net interest mar-gins and spreads serve as indicators of financial intermediation efficiency. This paper employed a bank-level unbalanced panel dataset prolonging from 2005 to 2014. My main empirical results show that bank characteristics explain the most of the variation in not only net interest margins but also in spreads. Capi-talization, liquidity risk, inflation, economic growth, private and government debt are important determi-nants of margin in Russia. In Japan to the contrary loan and deposit market concentration along with bank size do predominate. Common significant variables in both countries are the substitution effect, cost effi-ciency and profitability. Turning to net interest spreads, micro- and macro-specific variables are the main significant drivers in Russia. I reach the conclusion that there are no significant determinants of net interest spreads in Japan within the original selection of variables, but operating efficiency and deposits to total funding seem to prevail. In both countries, there are solid differences in the net interest margins as well as spreads once the pre- and the post-crisis periods are considered.

Development of human central nervous system 3D in vitro models for preclinical research

Neurological disorders are a major concern in modern societies, with increasing prevalence mainly related with the higher life expectancy. Most of the current available therapeutic options can only control and ameliorate the patients’ symptoms, often be-coming refractory over time. Therapeutic breakthroughs and advances have been hampered by the lack of accurate central nervous system (CNS) models. The develop-ment of these models allows the study of the disease onset/progression mechanisms and the preclinical evaluation of novel therapeutics. This has traditionally relied on genetically engineered animal models that often diverge considerably from the human phenotype (developmentally, anatomically and physiologically) and 2D in vitro cell models, which fail to recapitulate the characteristics of the target tissue (cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions, cell polarity). The in vitro recapitulation of CNS phenotypic and functional features requires the implementation of advanced culture strategies that enable to mimic the in vivo struc-tural and molecular complexity. Models based on differentiation of human neural stem cells (hNSC) in 3D cultures have great potential as complementary tools in preclinical research, bridging the gap between human clinical studies and animal models. This thesis aimed at the development of novel human 3D in vitro CNS models by integrat-ing agitation-based culture systems and a wide array of characterization tools. Neural differentiation of hNSC as 3D neurospheres was explored in Chapter 2. Here, it was demonstrated that human midbrain-derived neural progenitor cells from fetal origin (hmNPC) can generate complex tissue-like structures containing functional dopaminergic neurons, as well as astrocytes and oligodendrocytes. Chapter 3 focused on the development of cellular characterization assays for cell aggregates based on light-sheet fluorescence imaging systems, which resulted in increased spatial resolu-tion both for fixed samples or live imaging. The applicability of the developed human 3D cell model for preclinical research was explored in Chapter 4, evaluating the poten-tial of a viral vector candidate for gene therapy. The efficacy and safety of helper-dependent CAV-2 (hd-CAV-2) for gene delivery in human neurons was evaluated, demonstrating increased neuronal tropism, efficient transgene expression and minimal toxicity. The potential of human 3D in vitro CNS models to mimic brain functions was further addressed in Chapter 5. Exploring the use of 13C-labeled substrates and Nucle-ar Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy tools, neural metabolic signatures were evaluated showing lineage-specific metabolic specialization and establishment of neu-ron-astrocytic shuttles upon differentiation. Chapter 6 focused on transferring the knowledge and strategies described in the previous chapters for the implementation of a scalable and robust process for the 3D differentiation of hNSC derived from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSC). Here, software-controlled perfusion stirred-tank bioreactors were used as technological system to sustain cell aggregation and dif-ferentiation. The work developed in this thesis provides practical and versatile new in vitro ap-proaches to model the human brain. Furthermore, the culture strategies described herein can be further extended to other sources of neural phenotypes, including pa-tient-derived hiPSC. The combination of this 3D culture strategy with the implemented characterization methods represents a powerful complementary tool applicable in the drug discovery, toxicology and disease modeling.

Improving retail banking staff incentive systems

This Work Project seeks to analyze the viability, utility and best way of implementing mechanisms of double accounting and of insertion of low (or null) sales objectives in an incentives program. The main findings are that both processes are possible and to a certain extent advisable, although in very specific ways and with some limitations. Double accounting processes are especially effective between different segments and networks and should have a greater impact in the first evaluation periods of each case and the null objectives, albeit usable, are recommended to be always substituted by positive objectives, even if quite small. Moreover, it is concluded that the formal structure of the incentives program influences significantly these concepts, namely concerning the duration of the evaluation periods and the interaction of the objectives of different entities for both the vertical (hierarchic) and horizontal (individual and collective) levels.

The Teggiolo zone: a key to the Helvetic-Penninic connection (stratigraphy and tectonics in the Val Bavona, Ticino, Central Alps)

The Teggiolo zone is the sedimentary cover of the Antigorio nappe, one of the lowest tectonic units of the Penninic Central Alps. Detailed mapping, stratigraphic and structural analyses, and comparisons with less metamorphic series in several well-studied domains of the Alps, provide a new stratigraphic interpretation. The Teggiolo zone is comprised of several sedimentary cycles, separated by erosive surfaces and large stratigraphic gaps, which cover the time span from Triassic to Eocene. At Mid-Jurassic times it appears as an uplifted, partially emergent block, marking the southern limit of the main Helvetic basin (the Limiting South-Helvetic Rise LSHR). The main mass of the Teggiolo calcschists, whose base truncates the Triassic-Jurassic cycles and can erode the Antigorio basement, consists of fine-grained clastic sediments analogous to the deep-water flyschoid deposits of Late Cretaceous to Eocene age in the North-Penninic (or Valais s.l.) basins. Thus the Antigorio-Teggiolo domain occupies a crucial paleogeographic position, on the boundary between the Helvetic and Penninic realms: from Triassic to Early Cretaceous its affinity is with the Helvetic; at the end of Cretaceous it is incorporated into the North-Penninic basins. An unexpected result is the discovery of the important role played by complex formations of wildflysch type at the top of the Teggiolo zone. They contain blocks of various sizes. According to their nature, three different associations are distinguished that have specific vertical and lateral distributions. These blocks give clues to the existence of territories that have disappeared from the present-day level of observation and impose constraints on the kinematics of early folding and embryonic nappe emplacement. Tectonics produced several phases of superimposed folds and schistosities, more in the metasediments than in the gneissic basement. Older deformations that predate the amplification of the frontal hinge of the nappe generated the dominant schistosity and the km-wide Vanzèla isoclinal fold.