Intelligent reliability analysis with incomplete covariates

The reliability analysis is crucial to reducing unexpected down time, severe failures and ever tightened maintenance budget of engineering assets. Hazard based reliability methods are of particular interest as hazard reflects the current health status of engineering assets and their imminent failure risks. Most existing hazard models were constructed using the statistical methods. However, these methods were established largely based on two assumptions: one is the assumption of baseline failure distributions being accurate to the population concerned and the other is the assumption of effects of covariates on hazards. These two assumptions may be difficult to achieve and therefore compromise the effectiveness of hazard models in the application. To address this issue, a non-linear hazard modelling approach is developed in this research using neural networks (NNs), resulting in neural network hazard models (NNHMs), to deal with limitations due to the two assumptions for statistical models. With the success of failure prevention effort, less failure history becomes available for reliability analysis. Involving condition data or covariates is a natural solution to this challenge. A critical issue for involving covariates in reliability analysis is that complete and consistent covariate data are often unavailable in reality due to inconsistent measuring frequencies of multiple covariates, sensor failure, and sparse intrusive measurements. This problem has not been studied adequately in current reliability applications. This research thus investigates such incomplete covariates problem in reliability analysis. Typical approaches to handling incomplete covariates have been studied to investigate their performance and effects on the reliability analysis results. Since these existing approaches could underestimate the variance in regressions and introduce extra uncertainties to reliability analysis, the developed NNHMs are extended to include handling incomplete covariates as an integral part. The extended versions of NNHMs have been validated using simulated bearing data and real data from a liquefied natural gas pump. The results demonstrate the new approach outperforms the typical incomplete covariates handling approaches. Another problem in reliability analysis is that future covariates of engineering assets are generally unavailable. In existing practices for multi-step reliability analysis, historical covariates were used to estimate the future covariates. Covariates of engineering assets, however, are often subject to substantial fluctuation due to the influence of both engineering degradation and changes in environmental settings. The commonly used covariate extrapolation methods thus would not be suitable because of the error accumulation and uncertainty propagation. To overcome this difficulty, instead of directly extrapolating covariate values, projection of covariate states is conducted in this research. The estimated covariate states and unknown covariate values in future running steps of assets constitute an incomplete covariate set which is then analysed by the extended NNHMs. A new assessment function is also proposed to evaluate risks of underestimated and overestimated reliability analysis results. A case study using field data from a paper and pulp mill has been conducted and it demonstrates that this new multi-step reliability analysis procedure is able to generate more accurate analysis results.

Improving psychosocial care: a professional development programme

Despite the numerous reports of difficulties experienced by health care providers in providing psychosocial care to terminally ill patients and their families, few studies have yet been undertaken to examine the effectiveness of different educational approaches to addressing these issues. The aim of this paper is to describe a programme of professional development for palliative care nurses, which is currently being offered to 181 registered nurses in Queensland, Australia. The programme is based on an action learning model and is designed to facilitate processes of reflection and peer consultation. In Part One of this paper, a review of this literature is presented to provide the background and rationale for the programme design. Details of the research programme developed to evaluate the programme will be presented in Part Two of this paper, which is to be published in the next issue of this Journal. Surveys of health professionals suggest that the demands of working with terminally ill patients are associated with a great deal of stress (Beaton and Degner 1990, Seale 1992, Vachon 1995), and emotional burden, as they are confronted with their patients' physical and emotional suffering over extended periods of time (Ullrich and Fitzgerald 1990). Key areas of concern (Lyons 1988, Bramwell 1989, Seale 1992, Copp and Dunn 1993, Wilkinson 1995) include: * Handling questions and conversations with dying patients. * Dealing with ethical and moral issues. * Handling emotions. * Giving hope. * Providing spiritual care and bereavement support. * Confronting team communication problems.

Usability extensions for the worklet service

The YAWL Worklet Service is an effective approach to facilitating dynamic flexibility and exception handling in workflow processes. Recent additions to the Service extend its capabilities through a programming interface that provides easier access to rules storage and evaluation, and an event server that notifies listening servers and applications when exceptions are detected, which together serve enhance the functionality and accessibility of the Service's features and expand its usability to new potential domains.

Exploring dependencies of 5.9 GHz DSRC throughput and reliability on safety applications

Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) is the emerging key technology supporting cooperative road safety systems within Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The DSRC protocol stack includes a variety of standards such as IEEE 802.11p and SAE J2735. The effectiveness of the DSRC technology depends on not only the interoperable cooperation of these standards, but also on the interoperability of DSRC devices manufactured by various manufacturers. To address the second constraint, the SAE defines a message set dictionary under the J2735 standard for construction of device independent messages. This paper focuses on the deficiencies of the SAE J2735 standard being developed for deployment in Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANET). In this regard, the paper discusses the way how a Basic Safety Message (BSM) as the fundamental message type defined in SAE J2735 is constructed, sent and received by safety communication platforms to provide a comprehensive device independent solution for Cooperative ITS (C-ITS). This provides some insight into the technical knowledge behind the construction and exchange of BSMs within VANET. A series of real-world DSRC data collection experiments was conducted. The results demonstrate that the reliability and throughput of DSRC highly depend on the applications utilizing the medium. Therefore, an active application-dependent medium control measure, using a novel message-dissemination frequency controller, is introduced. This application level message handler improves the reliability of both BSM transmissions/receptions and the Application layer error handling which is extremely vital to decentralized congestion control (DCC) mechanisms.

Development of a rapid and validated method for investigating the metabolism of scoparone in rat using ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Scoparone (6,7-dimethoxycoumarin) is known to have a wide range of pharmacological properties. In this study, a rapid and validated ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC/ESI-QTof-MS) method was developed to investigate the metabolism of scoparone in rat for the first time. The new method reduced the sample handling and analytical time by three- to six-fold, and the detection limit by five- to 1000-fold, compared to published methods. Far more metabolites were detected and identified compared to published data, which were preliminarily identified as scopoletin, isoscopoletin, isofraxidin, and fraxidin, respectively, when subjected to tandem mass spectrometry analyses. It is found that the metabolic trajectory of scoparone in rat focused on phase I metabolism which is obviously different from published results, and revealed a wide range of pharmacological properties of scoparone partly attributed to the bioactivities of its metabolites.

Supporting context-aware process design : learnings from a design science study

Recent studies have started to explore context-awareness as a driver in the design of adaptable business processes. The emerging challenge of identifying and considering contextual drivers in the environment of a business process are well understood, however, typical methods and models for business process design do not yet consider this context. In this paper, we describe our work on the design of a method framework and appropriate models to enable a context-aware process design approach. We report on our ongoing work with an Australian insurance provider and describe the design science we employed to develop innovative and useful artifacts as part of a context-aware method framework. We discuss the utility of these artifacts in an application in the claims handling process at the case organization.

Familial typical migraine: Linkage to chromosome 19p13 and evidence for genetic heterogeneity

Migraine is a frequent familial disorder that, in common with most multifactorial disorders, has an unknown etiology. The authors identified several families with multiple individuals affected by typical migraine using a single set of diagnostic criteria and studied these families for cosegregation between the disorder and markers on chromosome 19, the location of a mutation that causes a rare form of familial hemiplegic migraine (FHM). One large tested family showed both cosegregation and significant allele sharing for markers situated within or adjacent to the FHM locus. Multipoint GENEHUNTER results indicated significant excess allele sharing across a 12.6- cM region containing the FHM Ca2+ channel gene, CACNL1A4 (maximum nonparametric linkage Z score = 6.64, p = 0.0026), with a maximum parametric lod score of 1.92 obtained for a (CAG)(n) triplet repeat polymorphism situated in exon 47 of this gene. The CAG expansion did not, however, appear to be the cause of migraine in this pedigree. Other tested families showed neither cosegregation nor excess allele sharing to chromosome 19 markers. HOMOG analysis indicated heterogeneity, generating a maximum HLOD score of 3.6. It was concluded that Chr19 mutations either in the CACNL1A4 gene or a closely linked gene are implicated in some pedigrees with familial typical migraine, and that the disorder is genetically heterogeneous.

Modeling the co-precipitation of silica and calcium oxalate in sugar solutions

Solution chemistry plays a significant role in the rate and type of foulant formed on heated industrial surfaces. This paper describes the effect of sucrose, silica (SiO2), Ca2+ and Mg2+ ions, and trans-aconitic acid on the kinetics and solubility of SiO2 and calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM) in mixed salt solutions containing sucrose and refines models previously proposed. The developed SiO2 models show that sucrose and SiO2 concentrations are the main parameters that determine apparent order (n) and apparent rate of reaction (k) and SiO2 solubility over a 24 h period. The calcium oxalate solubility model shows that while increasing [Mg2+] increases COM solubility, the reverse is so with increasing sucrose concentrations. The role of solution species on COM crystal habit is discussed and the appearance of the uncommon (001) face is explained.

High rates of muscle glycogen resynthesis after exhaustive exercise when carbohydrate is coingested with caffeine

We determined the effect of coingestion of caffeine (Caff) with carbohydrate (CHO) on rates of muscle glycogen resynthesis during recovery from exhaustive exercise in seven trained subjects who completed two experimental trials in a randomized, double-blind crossover design. The evening before an experiment subjects performed intermittent exhaustive cycling and then consumed a low-CHO meal. The next morning subjects rode until volitional fatigue. On completion of this ride subjects consumed either CHO [4 g/kg body mass (BM)] or the same amount of CHO + Caff (8 mg/kg BM) during 4 h of passive recovery. Muscle biopsies and blood samples were taken at regular intervals throughout recovery. Muscle glycogen levels were similar at exhaustion [?75 mmol/kg dry wt (dw)] and increased by a similar amount (?80%) after 1 h of recovery (133 �� 37.8 vs. 149 �� 48 mmol/kg dw for CHO and Caff, respectively). After 4 h of recovery Caff resulted in higher glycogen accumulation (313 �� 69 vs. 234 �� 50 mmol/kg dw, P < 0.001). Accordingly, the overall rate of resynthesis for the 4-h recovery period was 66% higher in Caff compared with CHO (57.7 �� 18.5 vs. 38.0 �� 7.7 mmol��kg dw-1��h-1, P < 0.05). After 1 h of recovery plasma Caff levels had increased to 31 �� 11 ?M (P < 0.001) and at the end of the recovery reached 77 �� 11 ?M (P < 0.001) with Caff. Phosphorylation of CaMKThr286 was similar after exercise and after 1 h of recovery, but after 4 h CaMKThr286 phosphorylation was higher in Caff than CHO (P < 0.05). Phosphorylation of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK)Thr172 and AktSer473 was similar for both treatments at all time points. We provide the first evidence that in trained subjects coingestion of large amounts of Caff (8 mg/kg BM) with CHO has an additive effect on rates of postexercise muscle glycogen accumulation compared with consumption of CHO alone.

A social matching system : using implicit and explicit information for personalized recommendation in online dating service

Online dating websites enable a specific form of social networking and their efficiency can be increased by supporting proactive recommendations based on participants' preferences with the use of data mining. This research develops two-way recommendation methods for people-to-people recommendation for large online social networks such as online dating networks. This research discovers the characteristics of the online dating networks and utilises these characteristics in developing efficient people-to-people recommendation methods. Methods developed support improved recommendation accuracy, can handle data sparsity that often comes with large data sets and are scalable for handling online networks with a large number of users.

The importance of reporting housing and husbandry in rat research

In 1963, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) first issued guidelines for animal housing and husbandry. The most recent 2010 revision emphasizes animal care ���in ways judged to be scientifically, technically, and humanely appropriate��� (National Institutes of Health, 2010, p. XIII). The goal of these guidelines is to ensure humanitarian treatment of animals and to optimize the quality of research. Although these animal care guidelines cover a substantial amount of information regarding animal housing and husbandry, researchers generally do not report all these variables (see Table ���Table1).1). The importance of housing and husbandry conditions with respect to standardization across different research laboratories has been debated previously (Crabbe et al., 1999; Van Der Staay and Steckler, 2002; Wahlsten et al., 2003; Wolfer et al., 2004; Van Der Staay, 2006; Richter et al., 2010, 2011). This paper focuses on several animal husbandry and housing issues that are particularly relevant to stress responses in rats, including transportation, handling, cage changing, housing conditions, light levels and the light���dark cycle. We argue that these key animal housing and husbandry variables should be reported in greater detail in an effort to raise awareness about extraneous experimental variables, especially those that have the potential to interact with the stress response.

Development and formative evaluation of a motorcycle rider training intervention to address risk taking

The need to address on-road motorcycle safety in Australia is important due to the disproportionately high percentage of riders and pillions killed and injured each year. One approach to preventing motorcycle-related injury is through training and education. However, motorcycle rider training lacks empirical support as an effective road safety countermeasure to reduce crash involvement. Previous reviews have highlighted that risk-taking is a contributing factor in many motorcycle crashes, rather than merely a lack of vehicle-control skills (Haworth & Mulvihill, 2005; Jonah, Dawson & Bragg, 1982; Watson et al, 1996). Hence, though the basic vehicle-handling skills and knowledge of road rules that are taught in most traditional motorcycle licence training programs may be seen as an essential condition of safe riding, they do not appear to be sufficient in terms of crash reduction. With this in mind there is considerable scope for the improvement of program focus and content for rider training and education. This program of research examined an existing traditional pre-licence motorcycle rider training program and formatively evaluated the addition of a new classroom-based module to address risky riding; the Three Steps to Safer Riding program. The pilot program was delivered in the real world context of the Q-Ride motorcycle licensing system in the state of Queensland, Australia. Three studies were conducted as part of the program of research: Study 1, a qualitative investigation of delivery practices and student learning needs in an existing rider training course; Study 2, an investigation of the extent to which an existing motorcycle rider training course addressed risky riding attitudes and motives; and Study 3, a formative evaluation of the new program. A literature review as well as the investigation of learning needs for motorcyclists in Study 1 aimed to inform the initial planning and development of the Three Steps to Safer Riding program. Findings from Study 1 suggested that the training delivery protocols used by the industry partner training organisation were consistent with a learner-centred approach and largely met the learning needs of trainee riders. However, it also found that information from the course needs to be reinforced by on-road experiences for some riders once licensed and that personal meaning for training information was not fully gained until some riding experience had been obtained. While this research informed the planning and development of the new program, a project team of academics and industry experts were responsible for the formulation of the final program. Study 2 and Study 3 were conducted for the purpose of formative evaluation and program refinement. Study 2 served primarily as a trial to test research protocols and data collection methods with the industry partner organisation and, importantly, also served to gather comparison data for the pilot program which was implemented with the same rider training organisation. Findings from Study 2 suggested that the existing training program of the partner organisation generally had a positive (albeit small) effect on safety in terms of influencing attitudes to risk taking, the propensity for thrill seeking, and intentions to engage in future risky riding. However, maintenance of these effects over time and the effects on riding behaviour remain unclear due to a low response rate upon follow-up 24 months after licensing. Study 3 was a formative evaluation of the new pilot program to establish program effects and possible areas for improvement. Study 3a examined the short term effects of the intervention pilot on psychosocial factors underpinning risky riding compared to the effects of the standard traditional training program (examined in Study 2). It showed that the course which included the Three Steps to Safer Riding program elicited significantly greater positive attitude change towards road safety than the existing standard licensing course. This effect was found immediately following training, and mean scores for attitudes towards safety were also maintained at the 12 month follow-up. The pilot program also had an immediate effect on other key variables such as risky riding intentions and the propensity for thrill seeking, although not significantly greater than the traditional standard training. A low response rate at the 12 month follow-up unfortunately prevented any firm conclusions being drawn regarding the impact of the pilot program on self-reported risky riding once licensed. Study 3a further showed that the use of intermediate outcomes such as self-reported attitudes and intentions for evaluation purposes provides insights into the mechanisms underpinning risky riding that can be changed by education and training. A multifaceted process evaluation conducted in Study 3b confirmed that the intervention pilot was largely delivered as designed, with course participants also rating most aspects of training delivery highly. The complete program of research contributed to the overall body of knowledge relating to motorcycle rider training, with some potential implications for policy in the area of motorcycle rider licensing. A key finding of the research was that psychosocial influences on risky riding can be shaped by structured education that focuses on awareness raising at a personal level and provides strategies to manage future riding situations. However, the formative evaluation was mainly designed to identify areas of improvement for the Three Steps to Safer Riding program and found several areas of potential refinement to improve future efficacy of the program. This included aspects of program content, program delivery, resource development, and measurement tools. The planned future follow-up of program participants' official crash and traffic offence records over time may lend further support for the application of the program within licensing systems. The findings reported in this thesis offer an initial indication that the Three Steps to Safer Riding is a useful resource to accompany skills-based training programs.

Project governance : ethical decision making in project procurement in the Malaysian public sectors

Managing public sector projects in Malaysia is a unique challenge. This is because of the ethical issues involved during the project procurement process. These ethical issues need attention because they will have an impact on the quality, cost and time of the project itself. The ethical issues here include conflict of interest, bid shopping, collusive tendering, bid cutting, corruption and the payment game. In 2006, 17.3% of 417 Malaysian government contract projects were considered sick due to contractors' performances that failed to conduct the project according to the project plan. Some of the sick projects from these statistics are due to the ethical issues involved. These construction projects have low quality due to the selection of the contractors, done unethically due to personal relationships instead of professional qualifications. That is why it is important to govern the project procurement processes to ensure the accountability and transparency of the decision making process to ensure that these ethical issues can be avoided. Extensive research has been conducted on the ethical issues in the tendering process or the award phase of project management. There is a lack of studies looking at the role of clients, including the government client, in relation to unethical practice in project procurement in the public sector. It is important to understand that ethical issues not only involve the contractors and suppliers but also the clients. Even though there are codes of ethics in the public sectors, ethical issues still arise. Therefore, this research develops a project governance framework (PGEDM) for ethical decision making in the Malaysian public sectors. This framework combines the ethical decision making process together with the project governance principals in guiding the public sectors with ethical decision making in project procurement. A triangulation of questionnaire survey and Delphi study was employed in this research to collect required qualitative and quantitative data. A questionnaire survey was conducted among the public officials (the practitioners) who are currently working in the procurement area in the Malaysian public sectors, in identifying the ethical behaviours and factors influencing further ethical behaviour to occur. A Delphi study was also conducted with the assistance of a panel of experts consisting of practitioners that have expertise in the area of project governance and project procurement as well as academician, which further considered the relationship and the influence of the criteria and indicators of ethical decision making (EDM) and project governance (project criteria, organisational culture, contract award criteria, individual criteria, client's requirements, government procedures and professional ethics). Through the identification and integration of the factors and EDM criteria as well as the project governance criteria and EDM steps for ethical issues, a PGEDM framework was developed to promote, and drive consistent decision outcome in project procurement in the public sector. The framework contributes significantly to ethical decision making in the project procurement process. These findings not only give benefit to the people involved in project procurement but also to the public officials in guiding them to be more accountable in handling ethical issues in the future and to have a more transparent decision making process.

Structural characterization and vibrational spectroscopy of the arsenate mineral wendwilsonite

In this paper, we have investigated on the natural wendwilsonite mineral with the formulae Ca2(Mg,Co)(AsO4)2���2(H2O). Raman spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy has been used to determine the molecular structure of the wendwilsonite arsenate mineral. A comparison is made with the roselite mineral group with formula Ca2B(AsO4)2���2H2O (where B may be Co, Fe2+, Mg, Mn, Ni, Zn). The Raman spectra of the arsenate related to tetrahedral arsenate clusters with stretching region shows strong differences between that of wendwilsonite and the roselite arsenate minerals which is attributed to the cation substitution for calcium in the structure. The Raman arsenate (AsO4)3��� stretching region shows strong differences between that of wendwilsonite and the roselite arsenate minerals which is attributed to the cation substitution for calcium in the structure. In the infrared spectra complexity exists of multiple to tetrahedral (AsO4)3��� clusters with antisymmetric stretching vibrations observed indicating a reduction of the tetrahedral symmetry. This loss of degeneracy is also reflected in the bending modes. Strong Raman bands around 450 cm���1 are assigned to ��4 bending modes. Multiple bands in the 350���300 cm���1 region assigned to ��2 bending modes provide evidence of symmetry reduction of the arsenate anion. Three broad bands for wendwilsonite found at 3332, 3119 and 3001 cm���1 are assigned to OH stretching bands. By using a Libowitzky empirical equation, hydrogen bond distances of 2.65 and 2.75 �� are estimated. Vibrational spectra enable the molecular structure of the wendwilsonite mineral to be determined and whilst similarities exist in the spectral patterns with the roselite mineral group, sufficient differences exist to be able to determine the identification of the minerals.