Self-exciting threshold binomial autoregressive processes

We introduce a new class of integer-valued self-exciting threshold models, which is based on the binomial autoregressive model of order one as introduced by McKenzie (Water Resour Bull 21:645–650, 1985. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1985. tb05379.x). Basic probabilistic and statistical properties of this class of models are discussed. Moreover, parameter estimation and forecasting are addressed. Finally, the performance of these models is illustrated through a simulation study and an empirical application to a set of measle cases in Germany.

Experiences of COPD patients with existing smoking cessation programs and their preferences for improvement - a qualitative analysis

BACKGROUND: Smoking is a major risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For current smokers who are diagnosed with COPD, their first treatment option is to stop smoking. Motivation is necessary for long-term smoking cessation; therefore, when designing smoking cessation programs, the patients' needs and preferences should be considered. We focused on COPD patients' experiences with existing smoking cessation programs and evaluated their preferences for the improvement of these programs. METHODS: We conducted 18 guideline-based interviews with COPD patients between April and June 2014 in Germany. Each patient with COPD, who was a current or past smoker and had made at least one attempt to quit smoking in the past 5 years, was included in the study. We audiotaped, verbatim transcribed, and evaluated the interviews, using content analysis. RESULTS: The patients had broad and different experiences with pharmaceutical, behavioral, and alternative approaches that supported or negatively influenced the smoking cessation process. Pharmaceuticals were viewed as an expensive alternative with many side effects although they helped to stop cravings for a few moments. Furthermore, the bad structure and impersonal content of the seminars for smoking cessation negatively influenced group cohesion, and therefore degrading the patients' motivation to stop smoking. Alternative methods, such as acupuncture and hypnosis were mostly ineffective in smoking cessation, but in some cases, served as motivational strategies. CONCLUSION: Negative experiences with smoking cessation were explained by the patients' lack of motivation or resolution. Other negative experiences, such as the structure of seminars for smoking cessation and the high price of pharmaceuticals should be addressed through policy changes to increase the patients' motivation to quit smoking.

„Lernen nicht, aber ...“ - Bildungsprozesse im Breaking

With over 30 years of tradition, breaking in Germany provides fascinating insights into the learning of dance in Hip Hop culture, reaching from informal street learning to the introduction of courses in educational institutions. This article draws information from a qualitative empirical study based on the Grounded Theory Methodology. The study asked subjects ranging from first-generation German B-Boys and B-Girls to teenage students about how they have learned and currently learn to break. The interview material reveals a rich and self-regulated learning culture with strong impact on protagonists. A synergy of social, aesthetic, and ethical principles seems to be characteristic, creating a gravitational field of learning with a unique and complex form of imitation at its core. (DIPF/Orig.)

State and economy. William Beveridge and Walter Eucken's criticisms and proposals. (A historical comparative perspective)

The central problem that this paper addresses is the development of political economic thought, both in Germany and in Great Britain, related to the construction of societies in which the State had a role in ensuring levels of stability and economic security to its inhabitants, particularly during the late 1940s -- This article proposes a comparative historical perspective of political economic thought of the British economist William Beveridge and his German counterpart Walter Eucken -- The comparison is based on their critiques to the economic system and proposals on the role that the State should play in the economy -- The study of the ideas of both thinkers, their criticisms and proposals on economic and political issues, allows us to understand the set of ideas that influenced the development of the Welfare State of the post war period, both in Britain and Germany

Prisioneiros de Guerra Portugueses no Quadro da Grande Guerra

A história dos cerca de 7000 prisioneiros de guerra portugueses, capturados na frente ocidental, a maioria na sequência da Batalha de La Lys, foi praticamente inexistente até ao final do século passado. Conhecer as diferentes dimensões desta problemática permitirá uma abordagem mais abrangente à participação de Portugal na Grande Guerra e à questão dos prisioneiros de guerra, em particular. O presente trabalho de investigação teve como objetivo analisar o apoio das instituições cívicas aos prisioneiros de guerra. Para tal, através de um estudo de natureza qualitativa e de pesquisa histórica, procurámos compreender as razões que levaram o Estado a tardar no apoio aos prisioneiros, identificar as instituições que se destacaram nesse apoio e, por fim, analisar a interação entre as principais entidades responsáveis, procurando compreender o volume e os efeitos do auxílio prestado, desde o momento da captura até ao seu repatriamento. Assim, verificámos a existência de duas instituições que desempenharam um papel fundamental no apoio aos prisioneiros. O Comité de Socorros aos Militares e Civis Prisioneiros de Guerra e a Comissão Central de Assistência. Em união de esforços e apoiadas, posteriormente, pelo delegado do Serviço de Prisioneiros de Guerra, tornaram possível a assistência aos militares portugueses cativos na Alemanha. Abstract: The history of around 7000 Portuguese prisoners of war, captured on the western front, the majority following the Battle of the Lys, was virtually non-existent until the end of the last century. Knowing the various dimensions of this problem will allow a more comprehensive approach to the study of the Portuguese participation in the Great War, and in particular to the issue of prisoners of war. This research paper aimed to analyze the support of civic institutions to prisoners of war. To this end, through a qualitative study and historical research, we sought to understand the reasons for the state belated support to prisoners, identify the institutions that stood out in this support and, finally, to analyze the interaction between the main responsible actors, seeking to understand the volume and the effects of the aid provided from the moment of capture to their repatriation. Thus, we found that there were two main institutions that played a key role in supporting prisoners. The Committee of Aid to the Military and Civilian Prisoners of War and the Central Assistance Commission. In joint efforts and later supported by the delegate of the Prisoners of War Service they made it possible to assist the Portuguese military captives in Germany.

Current account balance cyclicality

We assess the cyclicality of current account balances for the period 2001Q1-2014Q4, focussing on Portugal and in Germany, as a benchmark. We find that the cyclical component of the current account was positively explained by 3-months Euribor, but negatively by the financial crisis, systemic stress in Europe, employment and compensation of employees. Moreover, the non-cyclical current account was positively affected by the period of the Economic and Financial Adjustment Program and the terms of trade, but negatively influenced by financial integration.

Identidade nacional e memória colectiva em Portugal e na Alemanha: Um estudo comparativo de manuais de terceira classe

Este estudo propõe-se fazer uma análise comparativa de dois manuais de leitura do ensino primário, um em Língua Portuguesa e o outro em Língua Alemã. A pesquisa aponta afinidades e temas comuns na forma como em ambos os livros são abordados elementos representativos da identidade nacional e da memória colectiva. O nosso trabalho procura evidenciar, através dos manuais analisados e de uma fundamentação teórica, a manipulação destes conceitos durante o período do Estado Novo e do Terceiro Reich, época a que se reportam os manuais escolares. A nossa dissertação de mestrado insere-se no âmbito da Literatura Comparada, apoiando-se no que diz respeito à sua fundamentação teórica em estudos e autores trabalhados no contexto das disciplinas de Literatura e Cultura de Massas e de Literatura Infanta-Juvenil, investigações essenciais para estabelecer uma análise comparativa entre os dois manuais de leitura do ensino básico. ABSTRACT: This study aims at a comparative analysis of two primary textbooks, one in Portuguese and the other in German language. The research points out common topics, affinities as well as a similar approach to representative elements of the National Identity and the Collective Memory in Portugal and in Germany. Based on the analysis of the schoolbooks mentioned and supported by a theoretical ground basis, our work tries to show the manipulation of these concepts during the years of the Estado Novo and the Third Reich, the period of time in which both schoolbooks were published and taught. Our dissertation applies to the study field of Compared Literature, having its theoretical ground basis on studies and authors referred to in the scope of the disciplines of Literature and Culture of the Masses as well as Children’s and Youth Literature which provided us essential knowledge for a comparative analysis of these two primary schoolbooks.

La détermination des droits et des obligations relatifs à l'aide sociale en Allemagne : le cas des individus seuls aptes à l'emploi

Ce mémoire vise à comprendre la détermination des droits et des obligations relatifs aux individus seuls aptes à l’emploi bénéficiant de l’aide sociale allemande entre 1990 et 2012. Tout d’abord, il passe en revue les principaux mécanismes formels de fixation et d’actualisation des droits monétaires présents dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE et montre par quels moyens l’Allemagne détermine la générosité des revenus de l’aide sociale. Soulevant le caractère plutôt arbitraire de ces mécanismes, il poursuit en soutenant que la générosité relative des droits et des obligations des individus seuls aptes à l’emploi peut principalement s’expliquer en des termes de conditionnalité et de mérite. Par le biais d’une revue de la littérature sur le sujet, le mémoire illustre comment les dynamiques catégorielles et la construction des programmes de dernier recours allemands en viennent à refléter une hiérarchie implicite du mérite expliquant à la fois la générosité plus faible des droits monétaires et la plus grande conditionnalité des droits sociaux visant les bénéficiaires seuls aptes à l’emploi. Finalement, il soutient que la construction du régime concernant les individus aptes à l’emploi en Allemagne doit se comprendre selon l’utilisation des droits et des obligations en tant que levier de régulation de l’individu et du marché du travail. Dans cette optique, le mémoire montre que les réformes Hartz du marché du travail ont non seulement formalisé le tournant pris vers l’activation du sans-emploi en Allemagne, mais que la construction particulière du nouveau régime de droits et d’obligations visant les individus aptes reflète ultimement l’objectif de diminution du chômage via la création d’emplois dans le secteur des bas salaires.

La détermination des droits et des obligations relatifs à l'aide sociale en Allemagne : le cas des individus seuls aptes à l'emploi

Ce mémoire vise à comprendre la détermination des droits et des obligations relatifs aux individus seuls aptes à l’emploi bénéficiant de l’aide sociale allemande entre 1990 et 2012. Tout d’abord, il passe en revue les principaux mécanismes formels de fixation et d’actualisation des droits monétaires présents dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE et montre par quels moyens l’Allemagne détermine la générosité des revenus de l’aide sociale. Soulevant le caractère plutôt arbitraire de ces mécanismes, il poursuit en soutenant que la générosité relative des droits et des obligations des individus seuls aptes à l’emploi peut principalement s’expliquer en des termes de conditionnalité et de mérite. Par le biais d’une revue de la littérature sur le sujet, le mémoire illustre comment les dynamiques catégorielles et la construction des programmes de dernier recours allemands en viennent à refléter une hiérarchie implicite du mérite expliquant à la fois la générosité plus faible des droits monétaires et la plus grande conditionnalité des droits sociaux visant les bénéficiaires seuls aptes à l’emploi. Finalement, il soutient que la construction du régime concernant les individus aptes à l’emploi en Allemagne doit se comprendre selon l’utilisation des droits et des obligations en tant que levier de régulation de l’individu et du marché du travail. Dans cette optique, le mémoire montre que les réformes Hartz du marché du travail ont non seulement formalisé le tournant pris vers l’activation du sans-emploi en Allemagne, mais que la construction particulière du nouveau régime de droits et d’obligations visant les individus aptes reflète ultimement l’objectif de diminution du chômage via la création d’emplois dans le secteur des bas salaires.

William Layton en España

This year 2015 marks the 55th anniversary of the establishment in Spain of the first theatre academy whose methodological principles for actors were based on the Stanislavski system —although transformed by the perspective of the Method, developed in America by the Group Theatre during the 1930s and then implanted in some famous schools such as the Actor’s Studio—. It was in October 1960 when the American actor, teacher and director William Layton (1913-1995) opened the Teatro Estudio de Madrid (TEM). By then, he had already been living in Spain for two years. In that adventure Layton was accompanied by the Spanish Miguel Narros (a stage director) and the American Elizabeth H. Buckley. This private academy began its activity by offering the Method, a discipline that Layton had learned in his country with Sandford Meisner; one member of the Group Theatre along with Lee Strasberg, Stella Adler, Harold Clurmann or Elia Kazan. Thanks to the TEM, concepts till then completely unknown in Spanish academic venues for actors such as organicity, truth, mood, sensory memory, etc., started being implemented in the theatrical interpretation. Firstly, in exercises of improvisation; secondly, in scenes and characters; and finally, after a time of performing, those concepts were tested in the scenarios, by display to the public, which is the biggest challenge for any actor, author or director. That way, a singular model of interpretation, a naturalistic type, which have prevailed in the West over other ways of interpreting, came to Spain. A system (which could be defined as organic interpretation) that had been systematized by the Russian Konstantin Stanislavski in the early twentieth century and rapidly was exported abroad by some of his first students: Richard Boleslavsky, Maria Ouspenskaya, Michael Chekhov, Pietro Scharoff, P. Pauloff... Its popularity in the USA increased mainly due to the Actor’s Studio and also thanks to professor Lee Strasberg, through the famous Method working. While in 1960 Layton founded in Madrid the TEM, together with Narros and Buckley, the Brechtian technique was arriving to Barcelona. In that city, Ricard Salvat —who had trained in Germany��� and Maria Aurélia Capmany opened the School of Dramatic Art Adrià Gual (EADAG). From Catalonia and over the years, this center will project the first formulas about “distancing”. That way, after decades of delay, that same year 1960 landed in Spain two key trends that shaped and influenced the development of Western theatrical art in the first half of the twentieth century. SYNTHESIS: The knowledge and deep analysis of William Layton’s work as acting teacher in Spain will allow us to get closer to a major figure in the history of theater education in our country. Our main goal is to demonstrate that he was responsible for breaking the isolation that, from secular times, suffered the training of actors in Spain. Layton not only did achieve that, but did it consistently, without interruption. Also, by analyzing his work as stage manager, we will discover how this methodology was implemented in two aspects regarding the theatrical play: in the actor himself and in the dramatic text...

Techno-economic analysis of three HVAC retrofitting options

Accounting for around 40% of the total final energy consumption, the building stock is an important area of focus on the way to reaching the energy goals set for the European Union. The relatively small share of new buildings makes renovation of existing buildings possibly the most feasible way of improving the overall energy performance of the building stock. This of course involves improvements on the climate shell, for example by additional insulation or change of window glazing, but also installation of new heating systems, to increase the energy efficiency and to fit the new heat load after renovation. In the choice of systems for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), it is important to consider their performance for space heating as well as for domestic hot water (DHW), especially for a renovated house where the DHW share of the total heating consumption is larger. The present study treats the retrofitting of a generic single family house, which was defined as a reference building in a European energy renovation project. Three HVAC retrofitting options were compared from a techno-economic point of view: A) Air-to-water heat pump (AWHP) and mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR), B) Exhaust air heat pump (EAHP) with low-temperature ventilation radiators, and C) Gas boiler and ventilation with MVHR. The systems were simulated for houses with two levels of heating demand and four different locations: Stockholm, Gdansk, Stuttgart and London. They were then evaluated by means of life cycle cost (LCC) and primary energy consumption. Dynamic simulations were done in TRNSYS 17. In most cases, system C with gas boiler and MVHR was found to be the cheapest retrofitting option from a life cycle perspective. The advantage over the heat pump systems was particularly clear for a house in Germany, due to the large discrepancy between national prices of natural gas and electricity. In Sweden, where the price difference is much smaller, the heat pump systems had almost as low or even lower life cycle costs than the gas boiler system. Considering the limited availability of natural gas in Sweden, systems A and B would be the better options. From a primary energy point of view system A was the best option throughout, while system B often had the highest primary energy consumption. The limited capacity of the EAHP forced it to use more auxiliary heating than the other systems did, which lowered its COP. The AWHP managed the DHW load better due to a higher capacity, but had a lower COP than the EAHP in space heating mode. Systems A and C were notably favoured by the air heat recovery, which significantly reduced the heating demand. It was also seen that the DHW share of the total heating consumption was, as expected, larger for the house with the lower space heating demand. This confirms the supposition that it is important to include DHW in the study of HVAC systems for retrofitting.

Urban Agriculture Oriented towards Self-Supply, Social and Commercial Purpose: A Typology

Urban agriculture, a dynamic multifunctional phenomenon, affects the spatial diversification of urban land use, its valorization and its governance. Literature acknowledges its contribution to the development of sustainable cities. The dimension and extent of this contribution depends significantly on the particular form and function of urban agriculture. However, the complexity of interests and dimensions is insufficiently covered by theory. This paper proposes a typology for urban agriculture, supporting both theory building and practical decision processes. We reviewed and mapped the diversity of the types of agriculture found along three beneficial dimensions (self-supply, socio-cultural, commercial) for product distribution scale and actors. We distinguish between ideal types, subtypes and mixed types. Our intention is to include a dynamic perspective in the typology of urban agricultural land use because transition processes between types are observable due to the existence of complex motivations and influences. In a pilot study of 52 urban agriculture initiatives in Germany, we tested the validity of the typology and discussed it with stakeholders, proving novelty and relevance for profiling discussions.

Xanten-Vetera - Analyse et caractérisation du processus de colonisation et de romanisation d’une région frontalière en Germanie inférieure

Ce mémoire analyse le processus de romanisation et de colonisation de Xanten-Vetera, une région frontalière de l’Empire romain située en basse Rhénanie dans la province romaine de Germania inferior. À l’intérieur d’un cadre temporel inclus entre les conquêtes de Jules César et le milieu du second siècle apr. J.-C., l’étude cherche à comprendre et à restituer la présence militaire ainsi que le développement des peuplades civiles sur place, du fait des transferts de population et de l’immigration gallo-romaine. Le processus de romanisation est analysé en tenant compte des réalités ethnographiques, sociales et culturelles et selon les théories les plus actuelles de la recherche moderne sur ce sujet. Comme il s’agit d’une agglomération située sur une voie fluviale en périphérie de l’Empire, le concept de « frontière » y est évalué afin d’estimer si Xanten-Vetera constituait une zone de convergence ou de divergence par rapport à l’espace rhénan. Dans un deuxième temps, cette recherche analyse le contexte militaire et social durant lequel l’empereur Trajan prit la décision d’octroyer le statut de colonie à ce territoire qui devint la Colonia Ulpia Traiana. Cette démarche qui se veut régionale souligne la nature particulière de l’histoire de Xanten-Vetera sous le Haut Empire ; les migrations et les tragédies à l’intérieur de cet espace géographique ont façonné un endroit au destin unique en Germanie et dans l’Empire romain. Enfin, ce travail fournit un exemple pertinent de l’évolution des motivations qui ont guidé les politiques coloniales sous les Julio-Claudiens, les Flaviens et les Antonins et suggère l’essor des groupes de pression non militaires dans ce contexte.

La montée du fascisme et de la Grande Dépression en Allemagne, vue par la presse de France, de Grande-Bretagne et des États-Unis (1930-32)

Dans les années 1931-32, les disputes à propos du traité de Versailles accompagnent la montée du fascisme et de la Grande Dépression en Allemagne. Les dirigeants anglosaxons ont justifié leur appui du Reich par leurs opinions publiques et des historiens ont expliqué que ces dernières s’étaient bercées d’illusions sur les enjeux allemands. Mais quelles étaient et d’où provenaient-elles ? Notre étude de quotidiens français, américains et britanniques montre qu’elles n’étaient pas uniquement constituées d’erreurs d’appréciation des réalités objectives, mais aussi de faits occultés, d’inventions, d’une guerre médiatique justifiant les choix de certains dirigeants financiers et politiques anglo-saxons. La diffusion rapide des mêmes inventions des deux côtés de l’Atlantique suggère l’existence de canaux de « fabrique d’opinions » entre l’Allemagne, la Grande-Bretagne, et les États-Unis.

Konstruktive und funktionale Entwicklung eines selbststeuernden Unterflurbewässerungsverfahrens

Unter Einfluss des gegenwärtigen Klimawandels sowie dem Anstieg der Erdbevölkerung ist der effiziente Umgang mit den vorhandenen Wasserressourcen ein zentrales Thema in der Bewässerungslandwirtschaft. Die Unterflurbewässerung ist ein seit Jahrtausenden bekanntes Verfahren, bei dem das Bewässerungswasser unterhalb der Erdoberfläche aufgebracht wird und der Pflanze direkt im Wurzelraum zur Verfügung steht. Die Gefäßbewässerung ist ein selbststeuerndes Verfahren wobei die Wassergabe aus dem unglasierten Tongefäß aufgrund der im umgebenden Boden anliegenden Saugspannung erfolgt. Diese wassersparende und dem Wasserbedarf der Pflanze angepasste Bewässerungsweise ist Grundlage der Überlegungen und Untersuchungen der vorliegenden Arbeit. Ausgehend von dem Gedanken der Kombination der Vorteile der Gefäßbewässerung mit denen moderner Materialien, die eine maschinelle Installation ermöglichen und eine lange Lebensdauer aufweisen, wurde die Entwicklung einer selbststeuernden Bewässerung verfolgt. Materialrecherchen und eine Auswahl als geeignet identifizierter Materialien führten zu Laboruntersuchungen an Hand derer die Darcy-Eigenschaften (linearer Zusammenhang zwischen Volumenstrom und anliegendem Druck) überprüft wurden. Membranen erwiesen sich danach als geeignet, so dass an einer ausgewählten Schlauchmembran weitergehende Untersuchungen zum Einsatz für die Bewässerung vorgenommen wurden. Diese umfassten Langzeitlaborversuche im Boden zur Untersuchung der Entwicklung der Durchlässigkeit der Schlauchmembran über die Zeit, sowie zum Nachweis der Selbststeuerung des Systems. Mit den gewonnenen Ergebnissen war es möglich großmaßstäbliche Versuche im Gewächshaus zu realisieren, bei der die Schlauchmembran im Vergleich zur Tropfbewässerung hinsichtlich Wasserverbrauch und Ernteertrag an Standorten in Deutschland und Algerien getestet wurde. Diese Gewächshausversuche zeigten vielversprechende Ergebnisse für die Membranschlauchbewässerung mit im Vergleich zur Tropfbewässerung erhöhten Erträgen bei gleichzeitig geringerem Wasserverbrauch. Dies wurde besonders bei Verwendung von Bewässerungswasser mit erhöhtem Salzgehalt deutlich. Sorgfältiger Beachtung bedarf die Wasserqualität, da die Membranschlauchbewässerung auf Wasserverunreinigungen mit Durchflussverminderung reagiert, die sich nachteilig auf die Pflanzenentwicklung auswirkt. Aufgabe weiterer Forschungen muss es demnach sein, technische Verfahren zu entwickeln, die die langfristige Leistungsfähigkeit der Membran im Bewässerungsbetrieb aufrechterhalten.