933 resultados para Bayesian framework


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Due to ever increasing climate instability, the number of natural disasters affecting society and communities is expected to increase globally in the future, which will result in a growing number of casualties and damage to property and infrastructure. Such damage poses crucial challenges for recovery of interdependent critical infrastructures. Post-disaster reconstruction is a complex undertaking as it is not only closely linked to the well-being and essential functioning of society, but also requires a large financial commitment. Management of critical infrastructure during post-disaster recovery needs to be underpinned by a holistic recognition that the recovery of each individual infrastructure system (e.g. energy, water, transport and information and communication technology) can be affected by the interdependencies that exist between these different systems. A fundamental characteristic of these interdependencies is that failure of one critical infrastructure system can result in the failure of other interdependent infrastructures, leading to a cascade of failures, which can impede post-disaster recovery and delay the subsequent reconstruction process. Consequently, there is a critical need for developing a holistic strategy to assess the influence of infrastructure interdependencies, and for incorporating these interdependencies into a post-disaster recovery strategy. This paper discusses four key dimensions of interdependencies that need to be considered in a post-disaster reconstruction planning. Using key concepts and sub-concepts derived from the notion of interdependency, the paper examines how critical infrastructure interdependencies affect the recovery processes of damaged infrastructures.

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Engineers and asset managers must often make decisions on how to best allocate limited resources amongst different interrelated activities, including repair, renewal, inspection, and procurement of new assets. The presence of project interdependencies and the lack of sufficient information on the true value of an activity often produce complex problems and leave the decision maker guessing about the quality and robustness of their decision. In this paper, a decision support framework for uncertain interrelated activities is presented. The framework employs a methodology for multi-criteria ranking in the presence of uncertainty, detailing the effect that uncertain valuations may have on the priority of a particular activity. The framework employs employing semi-quantitative risk measures that can be tailored to an organisation and enable a transparent and simple-to-use uncertainty specification by the decision maker. The framework is then demonstrated on a real world project set from a major Australian utility provider.

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In this paper it is demonstrated how the Bayesian parametric bootstrap can be adapted to models with intractable likelihoods. The approach is most appealing when the semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) summary statistics are selected. After a pilot run of ABC, the likelihood-free parametric bootstrap approach requires very few model simulations to produce an approximate posterior, which can be a useful approximation in its own right. An alternative is to use this approximation as a proposal distribution in ABC algorithms to make them more efficient. In this paper, the parametric bootstrap approximation is used to form the initial importance distribution for the sequential Monte Carlo and the ABC importance and rejection sampling algorithms. The new approach is illustrated through a simulation study of the univariate g-and- k quantile distribution, and is used to infer parameter values of a stochastic model describing expanding melanoma cell colonies.

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The inverse temperature hyperparameter of the hidden Potts model governs the strength of spatial cohesion and therefore has a substantial influence over the resulting model fit. The difficulty arises from the dependence of an intractable normalising constant on the value of the inverse temperature, thus there is no closed form solution for sampling from the distribution directly. We review three computational approaches for addressing this issue, namely pseudolikelihood, path sampling, and the approximate exchange algorithm. We compare the accuracy and scalability of these methods using a simulation study.

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Introduction For many years concern for public health has transcended the boundaries of the medical sciences and epidemiology. For the last 50 years or so psychologists have been increasingly active in this field. Recently, psychologists have not only begun to see the need to take action to mould health promoting behaviours in individuals, but have also pointed out the need to join in an effort to develop appropriate social, political, economic and institutional conditions which would help to improve the state of public health. Psychologists have postulated the need to distinguish a new subdiscipline of psychology called public health psychology which, together with other disciplines, would further the realization of this goal. In the following article the historical and international context of health psychology and the changing nature of public health are put forward as having important implications for the establishment of a ‘public health psychology’. These implications are addressed in later sections of the article through the description of conceptual and practical framework of public health psychology in which theory, methods and practice are considered. Many aspects of the conceptual and practical framework of public health psychology have relevance to the health social sciences more generally and forming a basis for interdisciplinary work. The framework of public health psychology, together with the obstacles that need to be overcome, are critically examined within an overall approach that contends it is necessary to increase and improve the contribution of health psychology to public health.

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Theories of individual attitudes toward IT include task technology fit (TTF), technology acceptance model (TAM), unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT), cognitive fit, expectation disconfirmation, and computer self-efficacy. Examination of these theories reveals three main concerns. First, the theories mostly ‘‘black box’’ (or omit) the IT artifact. Second, appropriate mid-range theory is not developed to contribute to disciplinary progress and to serve the needs of our practitioner community. Third, theories are overlapping but incommensurable. We propose a theoretical framework that harmonizes these attitudinal theories and shows how they can be specialized to include relevant IS phenomenon.

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With the current emerging development pattern in Malaysia, Malaysian government has enthusiastically promoted green procurement approach that will help the construction project being green. Previous studies highlighted that the concept of green procurement is still very new to the Malaysian construction industry, and this increases the needs for further research in this area. This paper addresses the needs of guidelines for stakeholders to procure environmentally-friendly construction. Currently, there is a limited practical guideline for stakeholders to procure green projects. This paper discusses the progress to date of a research project aimed at developing a green procurement framework for construction projects in the Malaysian construction industry. This framework will guide the stakeholders to plan the green procurement implementation to procure a construction projects. Through literature and expert opinion, this paper explores the list of green practices within procurement practices which becomes the basis to develop a survey instrument that will be used in the later part of this study. The paper will shed useful information for construction researchers and practitioners in exploring the green procurement concept for construction industry in Malaysia.

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Construction projects have a negative impact on the environment. As Malaysia is planning more construction projects to cater for its current and future development needs, practitioners are urged to undertake greener approaches to construction. One of the efforts is the introduction of green procurement, which is promoted under the Malaysian Government’s MyHijau initiative. Construction procurement is recognised as a tool to shift the construction business into a greener industry. However, the implementation of green procurement in Malaysia is still in its infancy and faces a number of challenges, such as the lack of knowledge. A significant gap has been found between policy formulation and actual project delivery as there are no practical guidelines for stakeholders to procure environmental-friendly construction projects. To address this problem, the present research (as part of an ongoing PhD project) aims to develop a green procurement framework that guides stakeholders in procuring green projects in Malaysia. This article highlights the concept of green procurement in Malaysia, the work carried out to date to achieve the research objectives and the preliminary framework that has been established. It is hoped that this research will help academics and practitioners to further explore the potential of green procurement to improve sustainability in the current construction industry practices.

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This study investigates friendships between gay sales associates and heterosexual female customers in luxury retail settings. By employing grounded theory methodology, the study integrates theories and findings from diverse literature streams into an original conceptual framework to illustrate the resources gay sales associates and straight female customers receive from and provide to each other during retail exchanges. The study explains why gay male–straight female friendships are uniquely suited for luxury consumption settings. Female customers characterize their friendships with gay sales associates as providing honesty, security, trust, and comfort, which stems from the absence of sexual interest and a lack of inter-female competition. Gay sales associates receive acceptance for who they are and for their displays of unconventional masculinity in retail settings. They also obtain a temporary rite from their female customers, a so-called mandate of privacy, which permits both parties to ignore the bounds of modesty and accept a degree of intimacy. Such intimacy facilitates transactions that require both personalization and customer–employee closeness, such as the selling of high-end apparel, accessories, and jewelry.

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This tutorial primarily focuses on the implementation of Information Accountability (IA) protocols defined in an Information Accountability Framework (IAF) in eHealth systems. Concerns over the security and privacy of patient information are one of the biggest hindrances to sharing health information and the wide adoption of eHealth systems. At present, there are competing requirements between healthcare consumers' (i.e. patients) requirements and healthcare professionals' (HCP) requirements. While consumers want control over their information, healthcare professionals want access to as much information as required in order to make well-informed decisions and provide quality care. This conflict is evident in the review of Australia's PCEHR system and in recent studies of patient control of access to their eHealth information. In order to balance these requirements, the use of an Information Accountability Framework devised for eHealth systems has been proposed. Through the use of IA protocols, so-called Accountable-eHealth systems (AeH) create an eHealth environment where health information is available to the right person at the right time without rigid barriers whilst empowering the consumers with information control and transparency. In this half-day tutorial, we will discuss and describe the technical challenges surrounding the implementation of the IAF protocols into existing eHealth systems and demonstrate their use. The functionality of the protocols and AeH systems will be demonstrated, and an example of the implementation of the IAF protocols into an existing eHealth system will be presented and discussed.

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To further investigate susceptibility loci identified by genome-wide association studies, we genotyped 5,500 SNPs across 14 associated regions in 8,000 samples from a control group and 3 diseases: type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary artery disease (CAD) and Graves' disease. We defined, using Bayes theorem, credible sets of SNPs that were 95% likely, based on posterior probability, to contain the causal disease-associated SNPs. In 3 of the 14 regions, TCF7L2 (T2D), CTLA4 (Graves' disease) and CDKN2A-CDKN2B (T2D), much of the posterior probability rested on a single SNP, and, in 4 other regions (CDKN2A-CDKN2B (CAD) and CDKAL1, FTO and HHEX (T2D)), the 95% sets were small, thereby excluding most SNPs as potentially causal. Very few SNPs in our credible sets had annotated functions, illustrating the limitations in understanding the mechanisms underlying susceptibility to common diseases. Our results also show the value of more detailed mapping to target sequences for functional studies. © 2012 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

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This paper proposes an analytical Incident Traffic Management framework for freeway incident modeling and traffic re-routing. The proposed framework incorporates an econometric incident duration model and a traffic re-routing optimization module. The incident duration model is used to estimate the expected duration of the incident and thus determine the planning horizon for the re-routing module. The re-routing module is a CTM-based Single Destination System Optimal Dynamic Traffic Assignment model that generates optimal real-time strategies of re-routing freeway traffic to its adjacent arterial network during incidents. The proposed framework has been applied to a case study network including a freeway and its adjacent arterial network in South East Queensland, Australia. The results from different scenarios of freeway demand and incident blockage extent have been analyzed and advantages of the proposed framework are demonstrated.

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This article discusses two key issues in REDD+ design and implementation at the national level – carbon rights, and benefit sharing. Both carbon rights and benefit sharing can be understood as new legal concepts (although they build on existing law), and as legal concepts they offer a framework for addressing related areas of REDD+ policy. Many countries are currently considering how to manage carbon rights and benefit sharing issues, including Cambodia and Kenya. Both of these countries host existing forest carbon projects and are also in the process of designing national REDD+ programmes. This article uses a conceptual framework for carbon rights and benefit sharing derived from legal analysis to consider the cases of both Cambodia and Kenya, and also includes a general discussion of the challenges countries might encounter when considering how to manage carbon rights and benefit sharing in the context of REDD+ implementation.

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BACKGROUND Experimental learning, traditionally conducted in on-campus laboratory venues, is the cornerstone of science and engineering education. In order to ensure that engineering graduates are exposed to ‘real-world’ situations and attain the necessary professional skill-sets, as mandated by course accreditation bodies such as Engineers Australia, face-to-face laboratory experimentation with real equipment has been an integral component of traditional engineering education. The online delivery of engineering coursework endeavours to mimic this with remote and simulated laboratory experimentation. To satisfy student and accreditation requirements, the common practice has been to offer equivalent remote and/or simulated laboratory experiments in lieu of the ones delivered, face-to face, on campus. The current implementations of both remote and simulated laboratories tend to be specified with a focus on technical characteristics, instead of pedagogical requirements. This work attempts to redress this situation by developing a framework for the investigation of the suitability of different experimental educational environments to deliver quality teaching and learning. PURPOSE For the tertiary education sector involved with technical or scientific training, a research framework capable of assessing the affordances of laboratory venues is an important aid during the planning, designing and evaluating stages of face-to-face and online (or cyber) environments that facilitate student experimentation. Providing quality experimental learning venues has been identified as one of the distance-education providers’ greatest challenges. DESIGN/METHOD The investigation draws on the expertise of staff at three Australian universities: Swinburne University of Technology (SUT), Curtin University (Curtin) and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The aim was to analyse video recorded data, in order to identify the occurrences of kikan-shido (a Japanese term meaning ‘between desks instruction’ and over-the-shoulder learning and teaching (OTST/L) events, thereby ascertaining the pedagogical affordances in face-to-face laboratories. RESULTS These will be disseminated at a Master Class presentation at this conference. DISCUSSION Kikan-shido occurrences did reflect on the affordances of the venue. Unlike with other data collection methods, video recorded data and its analysis is repeatable. Participant bias is minimised or even eradicated and researcher bias tempered by enabling re-coding by others. CONCLUSIONS Framework facilitates the identification of experiential face-to-face learning venue affordances. Investigation will continue with on-line venues.

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Increasingly larger scale applications are generating an unprecedented amount of data. However, the increasing gap between computation and I/O capacity on High End Computing machines makes a severe bottleneck for data analysis. Instead of moving data from its source to the output storage, in-situ analytics processes output data while simulations are running. However, in-situ data analysis incurs much more computing resource contentions with simulations. Such contentions severely damage the performance of simulation on HPE. Since different data processing strategies have different impact on performance and cost, there is a consequent need for flexibility in the location of data analytics. In this paper, we explore and analyze several potential data-analytics placement strategies along the I/O path. To find out the best strategy to reduce data movement in given situation, we propose a flexible data analytics (FlexAnalytics) framework in this paper. Based on this framework, a FlexAnalytics prototype system is developed for analytics placement. FlexAnalytics system enhances the scalability and flexibility of current I/O stack on HEC platforms and is useful for data pre-processing, runtime data analysis and visualization, as well as for large-scale data transfer. Two use cases – scientific data compression and remote visualization – have been applied in the study to verify the performance of FlexAnalytics. Experimental results demonstrate that FlexAnalytics framework increases data transition bandwidth and improves the application end-to-end transfer performance.