Pre-crash and non-crash traffic flow trends analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assists in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a short time window around the time of a crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists. We will compare them with normal traffic trends and show this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding to traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash. Using the K-Means clustering method with Euclidean distance function allowed the crashes to be clustered. Then, normal situation data was extracted based on the time distribution of crashes and were clustered to compare with the “high risk” clusters. Five major trends have been found in the clustering results for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic conditions with a sliding window of 30 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

Representing and discovering adversarial team behaviors using player roles

In this paper, we describe a method to represent and discover adversarial group behavior in a continuous domain. In comparison to other types of behavior, adversarial behavior is heavily structured as the location of a player (or agent) is dependent both on their teammates and adversaries, in addition to the tactics or strategies of the team. We present a method which can exploit this relationship through the use of a spatiotemporal basis model. As players constantly change roles during a match, we show that employing a "role-based" representation instead of one based on player "identity" can best exploit the playing structure. As vision-based systems currently do not provide perfect detection/tracking (e.g. missed or false detections), we show that our compact representation can effectively "denoise" erroneous detections as well as enabe temporal analysis, which was previously prohibitive due to the dimensionality of the signal. To evaluate our approach, we used a fully instrumented field-hockey pitch with 8 fixed high-definition (HD) cameras and evaluated our approach on approximately 200,000 frames of data from a state-of-the-art real-time player detector and compare it to manually labelled data.

Understanding mild acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse through particle scale modeling

Sugarcane bagasse is an abundant and sustainable resource, generated as a by-product of sugarcane milling. The cellulosic material within bagasse can be broken down into glucose molecules and fermented to produce ethanol, making it a promising feedstock for biofuel production. Mild acid pretreatment hydrolyses the hemicellulosic component of biomass, thus allowing enzymes greater access to the cellulosic substrate during saccharification. A particle-scale mathematical model describing the mild acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse has been developed, using a volume averaged framework. Discrete population-balance equations are used to characterise the polymer degradation kinetics, and diffusive effects account for mass transport within the cell wall of the bagasse. As the fibrous material hydrolyses over time, variations in the porosity of the cell wall and the downstream effects on the reaction kinetics are accounted for using conservation of volume arguments. Non-dimensionalization of the model equations reduces the number of parameters in the system to a set of four dimensionless ratios that compare the timescales of different reaction and diffusion events. Theoretical yield curves are compared to macroscopic experimental observations from the literature and inferences are made as to constraints on these “unknown” parameters. These results enable connections to be made between experimental data and the underlying thermodynamics of acid pretreatment. Consequently, the results suggest that data-fitting techniques used to obtain kinetic parameters should be carefully applied, with prudent consideration given to the chemical and physiological processes being modeled.

Designing innovative business models: Five emerging meta-models

Business models to date have remained the creation of management, however, it is the belief of the authors that designers should be critically approaching, challenging and creating new business models as part of their practice. This belief portrays a new era where business model constructs become the new design brief of the future and fuel design and innovation to work together at the strategic level of an organisation. Innovation can no longer rely on technology and R&D alone but must incorporate business models. Business model innovation has become a strong type of competitive advantage. As firms choose not to compete only on price, but through the delivery of a unique value proposition in order to engage with customers and to differentiate a company within a competitive market. The purpose of this paper is to explore and investigate business model design through various product and/or service deliveries, and identify common drivers that are catalysts for business model innovation. Fifty companies spanning a diverse range of criteria were chosen, to evaluate and compare commonalities and differences in the design of their business models. The analysis of these business cases uncovered commonalities of the key strategic drivers behind these innovative business models. Five Meta Models were derived from this content analysis: Customer Led, Cost Driven, Resource Led, Partnership Led and Price Led. These five key foci provide a designer with a focus from which quick prototypes of new business models are created. Implications from this research suggest there is no ‘one right’ model, but rather through experimentation, the generation of many unique and diverse concepts can result in greater possibilities for future innovation and sustained competitive advantage.

The experience of being an advanced practice nurse within Australian acute care settings : a systematic review of qualitative evidence

Background There is a vast amount of international literature which, although agreeing on the need for advanced practice nurse roles, simultaneously debates and discusses the difficulties with nomenclature, definition and subsequent implementation of such roles. Due to this ambiguity it is difficult to equally compare evidence in this field across different countries. A context-specific systematic review on the qualitative evidence of the experience of being an advanced practice nurse in Australia has not been undertaken previously, however it is imperative for nursing managers and leaders to understand the complexities of advanced nursing roles in order to effectively utilise and retain these experienced and valuable nurses. With the creation of a national nursing regulating authority in 2010, it is timely to explore in-depth the experience of being an advanced practice nurse from a national perspective. Objective To identify the experience of being an advanced practice nurse working in Australian acute care settings. Inclusion criteria -Types of participants Registered nurses working in advanced practice roles in acute care settings throughout Australia. -Phenomena of interest The experience of being an advanced practice registered nurse working in an Australian acute care setting, as reported by the nurses themselves. -Types of studies Interpretive qualitative studies including designs such as phenomenology, grounded theory and ethnography. -Search strategy A three step search strategy was used to identify published and unpublished studies. The search process was conducted from August to October 2011 and considered published and unpublished studies from 1990 to October 2011. -Methodological quality Studies were appraised for methodological quality by two independent reviewers using the Joanna Briggs Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument. -Data extraction Data was extracted from the papers included in the review using the standardised Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument data extraction tool. -Data synthesis Research findings were pooled using the Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative Data and Review Instrument. Results Three published studies and one unpublished dissertation were included in the review. From these four studies, 216 findings were extracted, forming 18 categories which were then analysed to create six synthesised findings. Six meta-syntheses under the headings of expert knowledge, confidence, education, relationships, negative experiences and patient centred experience were formed from the findings. Conclusions The synthesised findings confirm that the experience of advanced practice nurses in Australian acute care settings is complex and greatly influenced personally and professionally by the organisation as well as the unpredictable nature of working with people.

Conceptual and thematic analysis of policies and guidelines on engineering asset management of different states in Australia

The role of government in developing policies and guidelines for asset management is becoming increasingly important especially in view of ageing infrastructure and increasing financial risks for building infrastructure. This paper reviews policies and guidelines developed by Australian state authorities against industry developed principles. It utilizes the software program Leximancer to; a) produce conceptual visualisations of the key themes and concepts embedded within state-wide policies and guidelines, and b) systematically compare the differing asset management foci between states. The analyses reveal mixed results in terms of policy priorities and guidelines for managing assets at a strategic level across states. This paper outlines a rigorous analytical methodology to inform specific policy changes.

Incorporating spatial correlations into multispecies mean-field models

In biology, we frequently observe different species existing within the same environment. For example, there are many cell types in a tumour, or different animal species may occupy a given habitat. In modelling interactions between such species, we often make use of the mean field approximation, whereby spatial correlations between the locations of individuals are neglected. Whilst this approximation holds in certain situations, this is not always the case, and care must be taken to ensure the mean field approximation is only used in appropriate settings. In circumstances where the mean field approximation is unsuitable we need to include information on the spatial distributions of individuals, which is not a simple task. In this paper we provide a method that overcomes many of the failures of the mean field approximation for an on-lattice volume-excluding birth-death-movement process with multiple species. We explicitly take into account spatial information on the distribution of individuals by including partial differential equation descriptions of lattice site occupancy correlations. We demonstrate how to derive these equations for the multi-species case, and show results specific to a two-species problem. We compare averaged discrete results to both the mean field approximation and our improved method which incorporates spatial correlations. We note that the mean field approximation fails dramatically in some cases, predicting very different behaviour from that seen upon averaging multiple realisations of the discrete system. In contrast, our improved method provides excellent agreement with the averaged discrete behaviour in all cases, thus providing a more reliable modelling framework. Furthermore, our method is tractable as the resulting partial differential equations can be solved efficiently using standard numerical techniques.

Bayesian indirect inference using a parametric auxiliary model

Indirect inference (II) is a methodology for estimating the parameters of an intractable (generative) model on the basis of an alternative parametric (auxiliary) model that is both analytically and computationally easier to deal with. Such an approach has been well explored in the classical literature but has received substantially less attention in the Bayesian paradigm. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast a collection of what we call parametric Bayesian indirect inference (pBII) methods. One class of pBII methods uses approximate Bayesian computation (referred to here as ABC II) where the summary statistic is formed on the basis of the auxiliary model, using ideas from II. Another approach proposed in the literature, referred to here as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood (pBIL), we show to be a fundamentally different approach to ABC II. We devise new theoretical results for pBIL to give extra insights into its behaviour and also its differences with ABC II. Furthermore, we examine in more detail the assumptions required to use each pBII method. The results, insights and comparisons developed in this paper are illustrated on simple examples and two other substantive applications. The first of the substantive examples involves performing inference for complex quantile distributions based on simulated data while the second is for estimating the parameters of a trivariate stochastic process describing the evolution of macroparasites within a host based on real data. We create a novel framework called Bayesian indirect likelihood (BIL) which encompasses pBII as well as general ABC methods so that the connections between the methods can be established.

Evaluation of inflow cannulation site for implantation of right-sided rotary ventricular assist device

Right heart dysfunction is one of the most serious complications following implantation of a left ventricular assist device (LVAD), often leading to the requirement for short or long term right ventricular support (RVAD). The inflow cannulation site induces major haemodynamic changes and so there is a need to optimize the site used depending on the patient's condition. Therefore, this study evaluated and compared the haemodynamic influence of right atrial (RAC) and right ventricular (RVC) inflow cannulation sites. An in-vitro, variable heart failure, mock circulation loop was used to compare RAC and RVC in mild and severe biventricular heart failure (BHF) conditions. In the severe BHF condition, higher ventricular ejection fraction (RAC: 13.6%, RVC: 32.7%) and thus improved heart chamber and RVAD washout was observed with RVC, which suggested this strategy might be preferable for long term support (ie. bridge to transplant or destination therapy) to reduce the risk of thrombus formation. In the mild BHF condition, higher pulmonary valve flow (RAC: 3.33 L/min, RVC: 1.97 L/min) and lower right ventricular stroke work (RAC: 0.10 W, RVC: 0.13 W) and volumes were recorded with RAC. These results indicate an improved potential for myocardial recovery, thus RAC should be chosen in this condition. This in-vitro study suggests that RVAD inflow cannulation site should be chosen on a patient-specific basis with a view to the support strategy to promote myocardial recovery or reduce the risk of long-term complications.

Interference in text categorisation experiments

This article examines manual textual categorisation by human coders with the hypothesis that the law of total probability may be violated for difficult categories. An empirical evaluation was conducted to compare a one step categorisation task with a two step categorisation task using crowdsourcing. It was found that the law of total probability was violated. Both a quantum and classical probabilistic interpretations for this violation are presented. Further studies are required to resolve whether quantum models are more appropriate for this task.

A pre-post evaluation of an ambulatory nutrition support service for malnourished patients post hospital discharge: a pilot study

Introduction Malnutrition is common among hospitalised patients, with poor follow-up of nutrition support post-discharge. Published studies on the efficacy of ambulatory nutrition support (ANS) for malnourished patients post-discharge are scarce. The aims of this study were to evaluate the rate of dietetics follow-up of malnourished patients post-discharge, before (2008) and after (2010) implementation of a new ANS service, and to evaluate nutritional outcomes post-implementation. Materials and Methods Consecutive samples of 261 (2008) and 163 (2010) adult inpatients referred to dietetics and assessed as malnourished using Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) were enrolled. All subjects received inpatient nutrition intervention and dietetic outpatient clinic follow-up appointments. For the 2010 cohort, ANS was initiated to provide telephone follow-up and home visits for patients who failed to attend the outpatient clinic. Subjective Global Assessment, body weight, quality of life (EQ-5D VAS) and handgrip strength were measured at baseline and five months post-discharge. Paired t-test was used to compare pre- and post-intervention results. Results In 2008, only 15% of patients returned for follow-up with a dietitian within four months post-discharge. After implementation of ANS in 2010, the follow-up rate was 100%. Mean weight improved from 44.0 ± 8.5kg to 46.3 ± 9.6kg, EQ-5D VAS from 61.2 ± 19.8 to 71.6 ± 17.4 and handgrip strength from 15.1 ± 7.1 kg force to 17.5 ± 8.5 kg force; p<0.001 for all. Seventy-four percent of patients improved in SGA score. Conclusion Ambulatory nutrition support resulted in significant improvements in follow-up rate, nutritional status and quality of life of malnourished patients post-discharge.

Global gene expression in skeletal muscle from well-trained strength and endurance athletes

PURPOSE: We used gene microarray analysis to compare the global expression profile of genes involved in adaptation to training in skeletal muscle from chronically strength-trained (ST), endurance-trained (ET), and untrained control subjects (Con). METHODS: Resting skeletal muscle samples were obtained from the vastus lateralis of 20 subjects (Con n = 7, ET n = 7, ST n = 6; trained [TR] groups >8 yr specific training). Total RNA was extracted from tissue for two color microarray analysis and quantative (Q)-PCR. Trained subjects were characterized by performance measures of peak oxygen uptake V?O 2peak) on a cycle ergometer and maximal concentric and eccentric leg strength on an isokinetic dynamometer. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-three genes were differentially expressed in trained subjects (ET + ST) compared with Con (P < 0.05), whereas 21 genes were different between ST and ET (P < 0.05). These results were validated by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for six differentially regulated genes (EIFSJ, LDHB, LMO4, MDH1, SLC16A7, and UTRN. Manual cluster analyses revealed significant regulation of genes involved in muscle structure and development in TR subjects compared with Con (P < 0.05) and expression correlated with measures of performance (P < 0.05). ET had increased whereas ST had decreased expression of gene clusters related to mitochondrial/oxidative capacity (P ?‰Currency sign 0.05). These mitochondrial gene clusters correlated with V?O2peak (P < 0.05). V?O2peak also correlated with expression of gene clusters that regulate fat and carbohydrate oxidation (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that chronic training subtly coregulates numerous genes from important functional groups that may be part of the long-term adaptive process to adapt to repeated training stimuli.

Effect of recovery modality on 4-hour repeated treadmill running performance and changes in physiological variables

The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of three different recovery modalities - active (ACT), passive (PAS) and contrast temperature water immersion (CTW) - on the performance of repeated treadmill running, lactate concentration and pH. Fourteen males performed two pairs of treadmill runs to exhaustion at 120% and 90% of peak running speed (PRS) over a 4-hour period. ACT, PAS or CTW was performed for 15-min after the first pair of treadmill runs. ACT consisted of running at 40% PRS, PAS consisted of standing stationary and CTW consisted of alternating between 60-s cold (10°C) and 120-s hot (42°C) water immersion. Run times were converted to time to cover set distance using critical power. Type of recovery modality did not have a significant effect on change in time to cover 400 m (Mean±SD; ACT 2.7±3.6 s, PAS 2.9±4.2 s, CTW 4.2±6.9 s), 1000 m (ACT 2.2±4.0 s, PAS 4.8±8.6 s, CTW 2.1±7.2 s) or 5000 m (ACT 1.4±29.0 s, PAS 16.7±58.5 s, CTW 11.7±33.0 s). Post exercise blood lactate concentration was lower in ACT and CTW compared with PAS. Participants reported an increased perception of recovery in the CTW compared with ACT and PAS. Blood pH was not significantly influenced by recovery modality. Data suggest both ACT and CTW reduce lactate accumulation after high intensity running, but high intensity treadmill running performance is returned to baseline 4-hours after the initial exercise bout regardless of the recovery strategy employed.

The structure of Pavlovian fear conditioning in the amygdala

Do different brains forming a specific memory allocate the same groups of neurons to encode it? One way to test this question is to map neurons encoding the same memory and quantitatively compare their locations across individual brains. In a previous study, we used this strategy to uncover a common topography of neurons in the dorsolateral amygdala (LAd) that expressed a learning-induced and plasticity-related kinase (p42/44 mitogen-activated protein kinase; pMAPK), following auditory Pavlovian fear conditioning. In this series of experiments, we extend our initial findings to ask to what extent this functional topography depends upon intrinsic neuronal structure. We first showed that the majority (87 %) of pMAPK expression in the lateral amygdala was restricted to principal-type neurons. Next, we verified a neuroanatomical reference point for amygdala alignment using in vivo magnetic resonance imaging and in vitro morphometrics. We then determined that the topography of neurons encoding auditory fear conditioning was not exclusively governed by principal neuron cytoarchitecture. These data suggest that functional patterning of neurons undergoing plasticity in the amygdala following Pavlovian fear conditioning is specific to memory formation itself. Further, the spatial allocation of activated neurons in the LAd was specific to cued (auditory), but not contextual, fear conditioning. Spatial analyses conducted at another coronal plane revealed another spatial map unique to fear conditioning, providing additional evidence that the functional topography of fear memory storing cells in the LAd is non-random and stable. Overall, these data provide evidence for a spatial organizing principle governing the functional allocation of fear memory in the amygdala.

A novel characterisation model for microvasulature changes following closed soft tissue trauma using micro-CT imaging

INTRODUCTION There is evidence that the reduction of blood perfusion caused by closed soft tissue trauma (CSTT) delays the healing of the affected soft tissues and bone [1]. We hypothesise that the characterisation of vascular morphology changes (VMC) following injury allows us to determine the effect of the injury on tissue perfusion and thereby the severity of the injury. This research therefore aims to assess the VMC following CSTT in a rat model using contrast-enhanced micro-CT imaging. METHODOLOGY A reproducible CSTT was created on the left leg of anaesthetized rats (male, 12 weeks) with an impact device. After euthanizing the animals at 6 and 24 hours following trauma, the vasculature was perfused with a contrast agent (Microfil, Flowtech, USA). Both hind-limbs were dissected and imaged using micro-CT for qualitative comparison of the vascular morphology and quantification of the total vascular volume (VV). In addition, biopsy samples were taken from the CSTT region and scanned to compare morphological parameters of the vasculature between the injured and control limbs. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION While the visual observation of the hindlimb scans showed consistent perfusion of the microvasculature with microfil, enabling the identification of all major blood vessels, no clear differences in the vascular architecture were observed between injured and control limbs. However, overall VV within the region of interest (ROI)was  measured to be higher for the injured limbs after 24h. Also, scans of biopsy samples demonstrated that vessel diameter and density were higher in the injured legs 24h after impact. CONCLUSION We believe these results will contribute to the development of objective diagnostic methods for CSTT based on changes to the microvascular morphology as well as aiding in the validation of future non-invasive clinical assessment modalities.