An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

New methods for generating populations in Markov network based EDAs: Decimation strategies and model-based template recombination

Methods for generating a new population are a fundamental component of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs). They serve to transfer the information contained in the probabilistic model to the new generated population. In EDAs based on Markov networks, methods for generating new populations usually discard information contained in the model to gain in efficiency. Other methods like Gibbs sampling use information about all interactions in the model but are computationally very costly. In this paper we propose new methods for generating new solutions in EDAs based on Markov networks. We introduce approaches based on inference methods for computing the most probable configurations and model-based template recombination. We show that the application of different variants of inference methods can increase the EDAs’ convergence rate and reduce the number of function evaluations needed to find the optimum of binary and non-binary discrete functions.

Experimental Studies on Model Scramjet in a Mach 6 High Enthalpy Free-Jet Wind Tunnel

A side-wall compression scramjet model with different combustor geometries has been tested in a propulsion tunnel that typically provides the testing flow with Mach number of 5.8, total temperature of 1800K, total pressure of 4.5MPa and mass flow rate of 4kg/s. This kerosene-fueled scramjet model consists of a side-wall compression inlet, a combustor and a thrust nozzle. A strut was used to increase the contraction ratio and to inject fuels, as well as a mixing enhancement device. Several wall cavities were also employed for flame-holding. In order to shorten the ignition delay time of the kerosene fuel, a little amount of hydrogen was used as a pilot flame. The pressure along the combustor has an evident raise after ignition occurred. Consequently thrust was observed during the fuel-on period. However, the thrust was still less than the drag of the scramjet model. For this reason, the drag variation produced by different strut and cavities was tested. Typical results showed that the cavities do not influence the drag so much, but the length of the strut does.

Performance of a Supersonic Model Combustor using Vaporized Kerosene Injection

Characteristics of supersonic combustion by injecting kerosene vapor into a Mach 2.5 crossflow at various preheat temperatures and pressures were investigated experimentally. A two-stage heating system has been designed and tested, which can prepare heated kerosene of 0.8 kg up to 820 K at pressure of 5.5 Mpa with minimum/negligible fuel coking. In order to simulate the thermophysical properties of kerosene over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions, a three-component surrogate that matches the compound class of the parent fuel was employed. The flow rate of kerosene vapor was calibrated using a sonic nozzle. Computed flow rates using the surrogate fuel are in agreement with the experimental data. Kerosene jets at various preheat temperatures injecting into both quiescent environment and Mach 2.5 crossflow were visualized. It was found that at injection pressure of 4 Mpa and preheat temperature of 550 K the kerosene jet was completely in vapor phase, while keeping almost the same penetration depth as compared to the liquid kerosene injection. Supersonic combustion tests were also carried out to compare the combustor performance for the cases of vaporized kerosene injection, liquid kerosene injection, and effervescent atomization with hydrogen barbotage, under the similar stagnation conditions. Experimental results demonstrated that the use of vaporized kerosene injection leads to better combustor performance. Further parametric study on vaporized kerosene injection in a supersonic model combustor is needed to assess the combustion efficiency as well as to identify the controlling mechanism for the overall combustion enhancement.

Numerical-Value Perturbation Method with Application of Solving Convective-Diffusion Integral Equation

The convective--diffusion equation is of primary importance in such fields as fluid dynamics and heat transfer hi the numerical methods solving the convective-diffusion equation, the finite volume method can use conveniently diversified grids (structured and unstructured grids) and is suitable for very complex geometry The disadvantage of FV methods compared to the finite difference method is that FV-methods of order higher than second are more difficult to develop in three-dimensional cases. The second-order central scheme (2cs) offers a good compromise among accuracy, simplicity and efficiency, however, it will produce oscillatory solutions when the grid Reynolds numbers are large and then very fine grids are required to obtain accurate solution. The simplest first-order upwind (IUW) scheme satisfies the convective boundedness criteria, however. Its numerical diffusion is large. The power-law scheme, QMCK and second-order upwind (2UW) schemes are also often used in some commercial codes. Their numerical accurate are roughly consistent with that of ZCS. Therefore, it is meaningful to offer higher-accurate three point FV scheme. In this paper, the numerical-value perturbational method suggested by Zhi Gao is used to develop an upwind and mixed FV scheme using any higher-order interpolation and second-order integration approximations, which is called perturbational finite volume (PFV) scheme. The PFV scheme uses the least nodes similar to the standard three-point schemes, namely, the number of the nodes needed equals to unity plus the face-number of the control volume. For instanc6, in the two-dimensional (2-D) case, only four nodes for the triangle grids and five nodes for the Cartesian grids are utilized, respectively. The PFV scheme is applied on a number of 1-D problems, 2~Dand 3-D flow model equations. Comparing with other standard three-point schemes, The PFV scheme has much smaller numerical diffusion than the first-order upwind (IUW) scheme, its numerical accuracy are also higher than the second-order central scheme (2CS), the power-law scheme (PLS), the QUICK scheme and the second-order upwind(ZUW) scheme.

Increased opioid dependence in a mouse model of panic disorder

[EN] Panic disorder is a highly prevalent neuropsychiatric disorder that shows co-occurrence with substance abuse. Here, we demonstrate that TrkC, the high-affinity receptor for neurotrophin-3, is a key molecule involved in panic disorder and opiate dependence, using a transgenic mouse model (TgNTRK3). Constitutive TrkC overexpression in TgNTRK3 mice dramatically alters spontaneous firing rates of locus coeruleus (LC) neurons and the response of the noradrenergic system to chronic opiate exposure, possibly related to the altered regulation of neurotrophic peptides observed. Notably, TgNTRK3 LC neurons showed an increased firing rate in saline-treated conditions and profound abnormalities in their response to met5-enkephalin. Behaviorally, chronic morphine administration induced a significantly increased withdrawal syndrome in TgNTRK3 mice. In conclusion, we show here that the NT-3/TrkC system is an important regulator of neuronal firing in LC and could contribute to the adaptations of the noradrenergic system in response to chronic opiate exposure. Moreover, our results indicate that TrkC is involved in the molecular and cellular changes in noradrenergic neurons underlying both panic attacks and opiate dependence and support a functional endogenous opioid deficit in panic disorder patients.

A kinematic subgrid scale model for large-eddy simulation of turbulence generated sound

In the hybrid approach of large-eddy simulation (LES) and Lighthill’s acoustic analogy for turbulence-generated sound, the turbulence source fields are obtained using an LES and the turbulence-generated sound at far fields is calculated from Lighthill’s acoustic analogy. As only the velocity fields at resolved scales are available from the LES, the Lighthill stress tensor, serving as a source term in Lighthill’s acoustic equation, has to be evaluated from the resolved velocity fields. As a result, the contribution from the unresolved velocity fields is missing in the conventional LES. The sound of missing scales is shown to be important and hence needs to be modeled. The present study proposes a kinematic subgrid-scale (SGS) model which recasts the unresolved velocity fields into Lighthill’s stress tensors. A kinematic simulation is used to construct the unresolved velocity fields with the imposed temporal statistics, which is consistent with the random sweeping hypothesis. The kinematic SGS model is used to calculate sound power spectra from isotropic turbulence and yields an improved result: the missing portion of the sound power spectra is approximately recovered in the LES.

Studies of the equation of state and elasticity of mantle minerals

Because the Earth’s upper mantle is inaccessible to us, in order to understand the chemical and physical processes that occur in the Earth’s interior we must rely on both experimental work and computational modeling. This thesis addresses both of these geochemical methods. In the first chapter, I develop an internally consistent comprehensive molar volume model for spinels in the oxide system FeO-MgO-Fe₂O₃-Cr₂O₃-Al₂O₃-TiO₂. The model is compared to the current MELTS spinel model with a demonstration of the impact of the model difference on the estimated spinel-garnet lherzolite transition pressure. In the second chapter, I calibrate a molar volume model for cubic garnets in the system SiO₂-Al₂O₃-TiO₂-Fe₂O₃-Cr₂O₃-FeO-MnO-MgO-CaO-Na₂O. I use the method of singular value analysis to calibrate excess volume of mixing parameters for the garnet model. The implications the model has for the density of the lithospheric mantle are explored. In the third chapter, I discuss the nuclear inelastic X-ray scattering (NRIXS) method, and present analysis of three orthopyroxene samples with different Fe contents. Longitudinal and shear wave velocities, elastic parameters, and other thermodynamic information are extracted from the raw NRIXS data.

Performance analysis of bit error rate for free space optical communication with tip-tilt compensation based on gamma-gamma distribution

In this paper, the gamma-gamma probability distribution is used to model turbulent channels. The bit error rate (BER) performance of free space optical (FSO) communication systems employing on-off keying (OOK) or subcarrier binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) modulation format is derived. A tip-tilt adaptive optics system is also incorporated with a FSO system using the above modulation formats. The tip-tilt compensation can alleviate effects of atmospheric turbulence and thereby improve the BER performance. The improvement is different for different turbulence strengths and modulation formats. In addition, the BER performance of communication systems employing subcarrier BPSK modulation is much better than that of compatible systems employing OOK modulation with or without tip-tilt compensation.

Mechanisms in fs-laser ablation in fused silica

A theoretical model is proposed to describe the microscopic processes involved in the ablation in fused silica induced by femtosecond-laser pulse. Conduction-band electron (CBE) can absorb laser energy, the rate is calculated by quantum mechanical method and classical method. CBE is produced via photoionization (PI) and impact ionization (II). The PI and II rates are calculated by using the Keldysh theory and double-flux model, respectively. Besides the CBE production, we investigate laser energy deposition and its distribution. The equation of energy diffusion in physical space is resolved numerically. Taking energy density E-dep=54 kJ/cm(3) as the criterion, we calculate damage threshold, ablation depth, and ablation volumes. It is found that if energy diffusion is considered, energy density near sample surface is reduced to 1/10, damage threshold is enhanced more than 30%, ablation depth is increased by a factor of 10. Our theoretical results agree well with experimental measurements. Several ultrafast phenomena in fused silica are also discussed. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Liquid silicate equation of state : using shock waves to understand the properties of the deep Earth

The equations of state (EOS) of several geologically important silicate liquids have been constrained via preheated shock wave techniques. Results on molten Fe₂SiO₄ (fayalite), Mg₂SiO₄ (forsterite), CaFeSi₂O₆ (hedenbergite), an equimolar mixture of CaAl₂Si₂O₈-CaFeSi₂O₆ (anorthite-hedenbergite), and an equimolar mixture of CaAl₂Si₂O₈-CaFeSi₂O₆-CaMgSi₂O₆(anorthite-hedenbergite-diopside) are presented. This work represents the first ever direct EOS measurements of an iron-bearing liquid or of a forsterite liquid at pressures relevant to the deep Earth (> 135 GPa). Additionally, revised EOS for molten CaMgSi₂O₆ (diopside), CaAl₂Si₂O₈ (anorthite), and MgSiO₃ (enstatite), which were previously determined by shock wave methods, are also presented.

The liquid EOS are incorporated into a model, which employs linear mixing of volumes to determine the density of compositionally intermediate liquids in the CaO-MgO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂-FeO major element space. Liquid volumes are calculated for temperature and pressure conditions that are currently present at the core-mantle boundary or that may have occurred during differentiation of a fully molten mantle magma ocean.

The most significant implications of our results include: (1) a magma ocean of either chondrite or peridotite composition is less dense than its first crystallizing solid, which is not conducive to the formation of a basal mantle magma ocean, (2) the ambient mantle cannot produce a partial melt and an equilibrium residue sufficiently dense to form an ultralow velocity zone mush, and (3) due to the compositional dependence of Fe2+ coordination, there is a threshold of Fe concentration (molar X_Fe ≤ 0.06) permitted in a liquid for which its density can still be approximated by linear mixing of end-member volumes.

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Charge symmetry in ^(13)N and ^(13)C a coupled-channel model

A set of coupled-channel differential equations based on a rotationally distorted optical potential is used to calculate the wave functions required to evaluate the gamma ray transition rate from the first excited state to the ground state in ^(13)C and ^(13)N. The bremsstrahlung differential cross section of low energy protons is also calculated and compared with existing data. The marked similarity between the potentials determined at each resonance level in both nuclei supports the hypothesis of the charge symmetry of nuclear forces by explaining the deviation of the ratios of the experimental E1 transition strengths from unity.

Multiscale model reduction methods for deterministic and stochastic partial differential equations

Partial differential equations (PDEs) with multiscale coefficients are very difficult to solve due to the wide range of scales in the solutions. In the thesis, we propose some efficient numerical methods for both deterministic and stochastic PDEs based on the model reduction technique.

For the deterministic PDEs, the main purpose of our method is to derive an effective equation for the multiscale problem. An essential ingredient is to decompose the harmonic coordinate into a smooth part and a highly oscillatory part of which the magnitude is small. Such a decomposition plays a key role in our construction of the effective equation. We show that the solution to the effective equation is smooth, and could be resolved on a regular coarse mesh grid. Furthermore, we provide error analysis and show that the solution to the effective equation plus a correction term is close to the original multiscale solution.

For the stochastic PDEs, we propose the model reduction based data-driven stochastic method and multilevel Monte Carlo method. In the multiquery, setting and on the assumption that the ratio of the smallest scale and largest scale is not too small, we propose the multiscale data-driven stochastic method. We construct a data-driven stochastic basis and solve the coupled deterministic PDEs to obtain the solutions. For the tougher problems, we propose the multiscale multilevel Monte Carlo method. We apply the multilevel scheme to the effective equations and assemble the stiffness matrices efficiently on each coarse mesh grid. In both methods, the $\KL$ expansion plays an important role in extracting the main parts of some stochastic quantities.

For both the deterministic and stochastic PDEs, numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the methods. We also show the computational time cost reduction in the numerical examples.

A GIS-based model of soil erosion and transport

Soil erosion is a natural process that occurs when the force of wind, raindrops or running water on the soil surface exceeds the cohesive forces that bind the soil together. In general, vegetation cover protects the soil from the effects of these erosive forces. However, land management activities such as ploughing, burning or heavy grazing may disturb this protective layer, exposing the underlying soil. The decision making process in rural catchment management is often supported by the predictive modelling of soil erosion and sediment transport processes within the catchment, using established techniques such as the Universal Soil Loss Equation [USLE] and the Agricultural Nonpoint Source pollution model [AGNPS]. In this article, the authors examine the range of erosion models currently available and describe the application of one of these to the Burrishoole catchment on the north-west coast of Ireland, which has suffered heavy erosion of blanket peat in recent years.