Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease:a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) onboard the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study anti control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.

The validity of critical thinking tests for predicting degree performance: A longitudinal study

This study explored the validity of using critical thinking tests to predict final psychology degree marks over and above that already predicted by traditional admission exams (A-levels). Participants were a longitudinal sample of 109 psychology students from a university in the United Kingdom. The outcome measures were: total degree marks; and end of year marks. The predictor measures were: university admission exam results (A-levels); critical thinking test scores (skills & dispositions); and non-verbal intelligence scores. Hierarchical regressions showed A-levels significantly predicted 10% of the final degree score and the 11-item measure of ‘Inference skills’ from the California Critical Thinking Skills Test significantly predicted an additional 6% of degree outcome variance. The findings from this study should inform decisions about the precise measurement constructs included in aptitude tests used in the higher education admission process.

A sting in the spit: widespread cross-infection of multiple RNA viruses across wild and managed bees

Declining populations of bee pollinators are a cause of concern, with major repercussions for biodiversity loss and food security. RNA viruses associated with honeybees represent a potential threat to other insect pollinators, but the extent of this threat is poorly understood. This study aims to attain a detailed understanding of the current and ongoing risk of emerging infectious disease (EID) transmission between managed and wild pollinator species across a wide range of RNA viruses. Within a structured large-scale national survey across 26 independent sites, we quantify the prevalence and pathogen loads of multiple RNA viruses in co-occurring managed honeybee (Apis mellifera) and wild bumblebee (Bombus spp.) populations. We then construct models that compare virus prevalence between wild and managed pollinators. Multiple RNA viruses associated with honeybees are widespread in sympatric wild bumblebee populations. Virus prevalence in honeybees is a significant predictor of virus prevalence in bumblebees, but we remain cautious in speculating over the principle direction of pathogen transmission. We demonstrate species-specific differences in prevalence, indicating significant variation in disease susceptibility or tolerance. Pathogen loads within individual bumblebees may be high and in the case of at least one RNA virus, prevalence is higher in wild bumblebees than in managed honeybee populations. Our findings indicate widespread transmission of RNA viruses between managed and wild bee pollinators, pointing to an interconnected network of potential disease pressures within and among pollinator species. In the context of the biodiversity crisis, our study emphasizes the importance of targeting a wide range of pathogens and defining host associations when considering potential drivers of population decline.

Prescription contraception use: a cross-sectional population study of psychosocial determinants

Objective: Many forms of contraception are available on prescription only for example, the oral contraceptive pill (OCP) and long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs). In this analysis we aim to identify key determinants of prescription contraceptive use.

Design: Cross-sectional population survey. Data on sociodemographic indices, concerns about the OCP and perceived barriers to access were collected.

Setting: Data set constructed from a representative population-based telephone survey of community dwelling adults in the Republic of Ireland (RoI)

Participants: 1515 women aged between 18 and 45 years

Main outcome measure: Self-reported user of the OCP or LARCs (intrauterine contraception, contraceptive injections or subdermal contraceptive implants) in the previous 12 months.

Results: For at least some of the previous year, 35% had used the OCP and 14% had used LARCs, while 3% had used two or more of these methods. OCP users were significantly younger, more likely to be unmarried and had higher income than non-users. Overall, 68% agreed with the statement ‘that taking a break from long-term use of the contraceptive pill is a good idea’ and 37% agreed with the statement that ‘the OCP has dangerous side effects’ and this was the strongest predictor variable of non-use of the OCP. Intrauterine contraception users were significantly older, more likely to be married and had lower income than non-users. Injections or subdermal contraceptive implant users were significantly younger, less likely to be married, had lower income and were less likely to agree that taking a break from long-term use of the pill is a good idea than non-users.

Conclusions: Prescription contraceptive use is sociodemographically patterned, with LARCs in particular being associated with lower incomes in the RoI. Concerns about the safety of the OCP remain prevalent and are important and modifiable determinants of contraceptive-related behaviour.

Children's use of interventions to learn causal structure

Children aged between 5 and 8 years freely intervened on a three-variable causal system, with their task being to discover whether it was a common-cause structure or one of two causal chains. From 6-7 years, children were able to use information from their interventions to correctly disambiguate the structure of a causal chain. We used a Bayesian model to examine children’s interventions on the system; this showed that with development children became more efficient in producing the interventions needed to disambiguate the causal structure and that the quality of interventions, as measured by their informativeness, improved developmentally. The latter measure was a significant predictor of children’s correct inferences about the causal structure. A second experiment showed that levels of performance were not reduced in a task in which children did not select and carry out interventions themselves, indicating no advantage for self-directed learning. However, children’s performance was not related to intervention quality in these circumstances, suggesting that children learn in a different way when they carry out interventions themselves.

Predictors of numeracy performance in undergraduate psychology, nursing and medical students

Psychology, nursing and medicine are undergraduate degrees that require students to attain a level of numerical competence for graduation. Yet, the numeracy aspect of these courses is often actively disliked and poorly performed. This study's aim was to identify what factors most strongly predict performance in such courses. Three hundred and twenty-five undergraduate students from these three disciplines were given measures of numeracy performance, maths anxiety, maths attitudes and various demographic and educational variables. From these data three separate path analysis models were formed, showing the predictive effects of affective, demographic and educational variables on numeracy performance. Maths anxiety was the strongest affective predictor for psychology and nursing students, with motivation being more important for medical students. Across participant groups, pre-university maths qualifications were the strongest demographic/educational predictor of performance. The results can be used to suggest ways to improve performance in students having difficulty with numeracy-based modules.

The association between subgingival periodontal pathogens and systemic inflammation

Aim To investigate associations between periodontal disease pathogens and levels of systemic inflammation measured by C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods A representative sample of dentate 60-70-year-old men in Northern Ireland had a comprehensive periodontal examination. Men taking statins were excluded. Subgingival plaque samples were analysed by quantitative real time PCR to identify the presence of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Treponema denticola and Tannerella forsythia. High-sensitivity CRP (mg/l) was measured from fasting blood samples. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using log-transformed CRP concentration as the dependent variable, with the presence of each periodontal pathogen as predictor variables, with adjustment for various potential confounders. Results A total of 518 men (mean age 63.6 SD 3.0 years) were included in the analysis. Multiple regression analysis showed that body mass index (p < 0.001), current smoking (p < 0.01), the detectable presence of P. gingivalis (p < 0.01) and hypertension (p = 0.01), were independently associated with an increased CRP. The detectable presence of P. gingivalis was associated with a 20% (95% confidence interval 4-35%) increase in CRP (mg/l) after adjustment for all other predictor variables. Conclusion In these 60-70-year-old dentate men, the presence of P. gingivalis in subgingival plaque was significantly associated with a raised level of C-reactive protein.

Monitoring of lineage-specific chimaerism allows early prediction of response following donor lymphocyte infusions for relapsed chronic myeloid leukaemia

Donor lymphocyte infusions (DLI) have been shown to enhance the graft-versus-leukaemia (GVL) effect and induce haematological and molecular remission in patients with relapsed CML following allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT). The potent donor cell-mediated cytolysis following DLI may lead to a short period of aplasia before the re-establishment of donor haematopoiesis. The absence of detectable donor cells in patients prior to DLI infusion may result in permanent aplasia in certain patients. We report on four patients who relapsed 1, 3, 6.5 and 7 years post-BMT for chronic phase CML and were treated with DLI from their original BMT donor. Polymorphic short tandem repeats (STRs) were used to assess haematological chimaerism both prior to and following DLI. At the time of relapse, STR-PCR indicated the presence of donor cells in all four patients, at levels ranging from 1-40%. A clinical and molecular response was seen in 4/4 patients following a short period of cytopenia and all patients remain in clinical remission with a follow-up of 2 months-3 years post-DLI. STR-PCR indicated that a response was occurring during the period of pancytopenia when metaphase analysis was unsuccessful. Lineage-specific analysis of the cellular response to DLI was monitored using STR-PCR of peripheral blood (PB) and bone marrow (BM) lymphocyte-enriched fractions and CD2-positive and -negative T cell fractions. In one patient BM and PB CD34-positive and -negative fractions were also assessed. A change in the ratio of donor:recipient cells in the PB lymphocyte fraction was the earliest molecular indication of an anti-leukaemic response. Subsequent conversion to donor chimaerism occurred in the other lineages and the granulocyte fraction was the last lineage to convert. In conclusion, lineage-specific STR-PCR permits detailed monitoring of subtle changes in donor/recipient cell dynamics in specific lineages following DLI during the crucial pancytopenic phase and may be a useful predictor of haematological response to DLI therapy.

An experimental evaluation of prediction models for the mechanical behavior of unreinforced, lime-mortar masonry under compression

This paper contributes to the understanding of lime-mortar masonry strength and deformation (which determine durability and allowable stresses/stiffness in design codes) by measuring the mechanical properties of brick bound with lime and lime-cement mortars. Based on the regression analysis of experimental results, models to estimate lime-mortar masonry compressive strength are proposed (less accurate for hydrated lime (CL90s) masonry due to the disparity between mortar and brick strengths). Also, three relationships between masonry elastic modulus and its compressive strength are proposed for cement-lime; hydraulic lime (NHL3.5 and 5); and hydrated/feebly hydraulic lime masonries respectively.

Disagreement between the experimental results and former mathematical prediction models (proposed primarily for cement masonry) is caused by a lack of provision for the significant deformation of lime masonry and the relative changes in strength and stiffness between mortar and brick over time (at 6 months and 1 year, the NHL 3.5 and 5 mortars are often stronger than the brick). Eurocode 6 provided the best predictions for the compressive strength of lime and cement-lime masonry based on the strength of their components. All models vastly overestimated the strength of CL90s masonry at 28 days however, Eurocode 6 became an accurate predictor after 6 months, when the mortar had acquired most of its final strength and stiffness.

The experimental results agreed with former stress-strain curves. It was evidenced that mortar strongly impacts masonry deformation, and that the masonry stress/strain relationship becomes increasingly non-linear as mortar strength lowers. It was also noted that, the influence of masonry stiffness on its compressive strength becomes smaller as the mortar hydraulicity increases.

HOXB13, RFX6 and prostate cancer risk

A new study shows that HOXB13 is preferentially recruited to the risk allele of a prostate cancer-associated SNP, enhancing the expression of RFX6, a driver of prostate cancer cell migration and predictor of disease progression. The work illustrates how a single risk locus contributes both to prostate cancer incidence and, through functional follow-up, to disease progression.

Forecasting invasions: resource use by mussels informs invasion patterns along the South African coast

Invasive species are often more able to rapidly and efficiently utilise resources than natives, and comparing per capita resource use at different resource densities among invaders and trophically analogous natives could allow for reliable predictions of invasiveness. In South Africa, invasion by the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis has transformed wave-exposed shores, negatively affecting native mussel species. Currently, South Africa is experiencing a second mussel invasion with the recent detection of the South American Semimytilus algosus. We tested per capita uptake of an algal resource by invading M. galloprovincialis, S. algosus, and the native Aulacomya atra at different algal concentrations and temperatures, representing the west and south coasts of South Africa, to examine whether their per capita resource use could be a predictor of their spread and subsequent invasiveness. Regardless of temperature, M. galloprovincialis was the most efficient consumer, significantly reducing algal cells compared to the other species when the resource was presented in both low and high starting densities. Furthermore, these findings aligned with a greater biomass of M. galloprovincialis on the shore in comparison with the other species. Resource use by the new invader S. algosus was dependent on the density of resource and, although this species was efficient at low algal concentrations at cooler temperatures, this pattern broke down at higher algal densities. This was once more reflected in lower biomass in surveys of this species along the cool west coast. We therefore forecast that S. algosus will be become established along the south coast; however, we also predict that M. galloprovincialis will maintain dominance on these shores.

Obsessive-compulsive symptoms and attentional bias: An eye-tracking methodology

Background and objectives: Cognitive models suggest that attentional biases are integral in the maintenance of obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS). Such biases have been established experimentally in anxiety disorders; however, the evidence is unclear in Obsessive Compulsive disorder (OCD). In the present study, an eye-tracking methodology was employed to explore attentional biases in relation to OCS.
Methods: A convenience sample of 85 community volunteers was assessed on OCS using the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale-self report. Participants completed an eye-tracking paradigm where they were exposed to OCD, Aversive and Neutral visual stimuli. Indices of attentional bias were derived from the eye-tracking data.
Results: Simple linear regressions were performed with OCS severity as the predictor and eye-tracking measures of the different attentional biases for each of the three stimuli types were the criterion variables. Findings revealed that OCS severity moderately predicted greater frequency and duration of fixations on OCD stimuli, which reflect the maintenance attentional bias. No significant results were found in support of other biases.
Limitations: Interpretations based on a non-clinical sample limit the generalisability of the conclusions, although use of such samples in OCD research has been found to be comparable to clinical populations. Future research would include both clinical and sub-clinical participants.
Conclusions: Results provide some support for the theory of maintained attention in OCD attentional biases, as opposed to vigilance theory. Individuals with greater OCS do not orient to OCD stimuli any faster than individuals with lower OCS, but once a threat is identified, these individuals allocate more attention to OCS-relevant stimuli.

The Reliability of the Arc-Length Method in the Analysis of Mode-Jumping Problems

The Arc-Length Method is a solution procedure that enables a generic non-linear problem to pass limit points. Some examples are provided of mode-jumping problems solutions using a commercial nite element package, and other investigations are carried out on a simple structure of which the numerical solution can be compared with an analytical one. It is shown that Arc-Length Method is not reliable when bifurcations are present in the primary equilibrium path; also the presence of very sharp snap-backs or special boundary conditions may cause convergence diÆculty at limit points. An improvement to the predictor used in the incremental procedure is suggested, together with a reliable criteria for selecting either solution of the quadratic arc-length constraint. The gap that is sometimes observed between the experimantal load level of mode-jumping and its arc-length prediction is explained through an example.

Spatial and temporal influences of in-stream factors on the chemistry and epilithic biomasses of upland stream metal deposits

The density and composition of stream bed metal deposits are affected by physical, chemical and biological processes. In this paper we investigate the importance of these processes and their relation to algal and non-photosynthetic detrital (NPD) biomass in a set of upland streams in Northern Ireland. Deposit density and Fe, Mn, Al and P concentrations varied with stream pH across sites but not seasonally. No effects of stream bed erosion or photoreduction were detected on deposit densities. Seasonal variation in stream water metal concentrations was correlated with rainfall. NPD biomass was a significant predictor of both spatial and seasonal variation in deposit concentrations. There were strong, non-linear, relations between NPD biomass and deposit metal concentrations, with Fe and Mn becoming relatively more important and algal biomass declining above threshold deposit/NPD densities. The results suggest that NPD biomass influences deposit density and reduces the biomass of photosynthetic autotrophs above a threshold deposit density.

Quantifying consumer portion control practices. A cross-sectional study

The use of portion control practices has rarely been quantified. The present study aimed to: (1) explore which portion control practices are actually used by the general population and their association with cognitive restraint, demographic background and general health interest (GHI), and (2) examine how the usage of portion control practices predicts the estimated consumption of an energy dense food (i.e. pizza). Twenty-two portion control practices were rated in terms of their frequency of use from 'never' to 'very often' by a representative sample of 1012 consumers from the island of Ireland. Three factors were extracted and named: measurement-strategy scale, eating-strategy scale, and purchasing-strategy scale. The eating-strategy scale score was the highest, while the measurement-strategy scale carried the lowest frequency score. For each strategy scale score, the strongest predictor was GHI, followed by gender. Having higher GHI and being female were independently associated with more frequent portion control. Both the eating-strategy scale score and the purchasing-strategy scale score were negatively associated with pizza portion size consumption estimates. In conclusion, while this study demonstrates that the reported use of portion control practices is low, the findings provide preliminary evidence for their validity. Further studies are needed to explore how portion control practices are used in different kinds of portion size decisions and what their contribution is to the intake of food over an extended period of time.