Posterior Simulation in the Generalized Linear Model with Semiparmetric Random Effects

Generalized linear mixed models with semiparametric random effects are useful in a wide variety of Bayesian applications. When the random effects arise from a mixture of Dirichlet process (MDP) model, normal base measures and Gibbs sampling procedures based on the Pólya urn scheme are often used to simulate posterior draws. These algorithms are applicable in the conjugate case when (for a normal base measure) the likelihood is normal. In the non-conjugate case, the algorithms proposed by MacEachern and Müller (1998) and Neal (2000) are often applied to generate posterior samples. Some common problems associated with simulation algorithms for non-conjugate MDP models include convergence and mixing difficulties. This paper proposes an algorithm based on the Pólya urn scheme that extends the Gibbs sampling algorithms to non-conjugate models with normal base measures and exponential family likelihoods. The algorithm proceeds by making Laplace approximations to the likelihood function, thereby reducing the procedure to that of conjugate normal MDP models. To ensure the validity of the stationary distribution in the non-conjugate case, the proposals are accepted or rejected by a Metropolis-Hastings step. In the special case where the data are normally distributed, the algorithm is identical to the Gibbs sampler.

Matrix metalloproteinase-19 is a predictive marker for tumor invasiveness in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

AIMS: To evaluate the expression of matrix metalloproteinase-19 (MMP-19) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma along with its association with structural features of invasiveness. To investigate whether MMP-19 expression correlates with lymphatic or systemic metastasis and prognosis in patients who have received definitive radiotherapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: The histological evaluation of the invasive front was based on Bryne's malignancy grading system. We correlated the immunohistochemical expression pattern with morphological parameters which characterize tumor invasiveness such as keratinization, nuclear polymorphism, invasion pattern, and the host inflammatory response. Local immunoreactivity for MMP-19 was positively correlated with tumor invasiveness as reflected in its structural characteristics and the degree of nuclear polymorphism, and negatively correlated with the inflammatory response of the host. No correlation existed between MMP-19 expression and clinicopathological features (TNM stage, grade of differentiation) or a patient''s outcome and prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: This latter finding probably reflects the unique change for MMPs from high immunoreactivity within healthy tissue areas and non-invasive tumor parts, through absence in the least invasive neoplastic regions, to strong re-expression at a highly invasive front of the same tumor. Our findings indicate that MMP-19 can be used as a marker for tumor invasiveness in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

Dosimetric impact of geometric errors due to respiratory motion prediction on dynamic multileaf collimator-based four-dimensional radiation delivery

The synchronization of dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) response with respiratory motion is critical to ensure the accuracy of DMLC-based four dimensional (4D) radiation delivery. In practice, however, a finite time delay (response time) between the acquisition of tumor position and multileaf collimator response necessitates predictive models of respiratory tumor motion to synchronize radiation delivery. Predicting a complex process such as respiratory motion introduces geometric errors, which have been reported in several publications. However, the dosimetric effect of such errors on 4D radiation delivery has not yet been investigated. Thus, our aim in this work was to quantify the dosimetric effects of geometric error due to prediction under several different conditions. Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for a lung patient were generated for anterior-posterior/posterior-anterior (AP/PA) beam arrangements at 6 and 18 MV energies to provide planned dose distributions. Respiratory motion data was obtained from 60 diaphragm-motion fluoroscopy recordings from five patients. A linear adaptive filter was employed to predict the tumor position. The geometric error of prediction was defined as the absolute difference between predicted and actual positions at each diaphragm position. Distributions of geometric error of prediction were obtained for all of the respiratory motion data. Planned dose distributions were then convolved with distributions for the geometric error of prediction to obtain convolved dose distributions. The dosimetric effect of such geometric errors was determined as a function of several variables: response time (0-0.6 s), beam energy (6/18 MV), treatment delivery (3D/4D), treatment type (conformal/IMRT), beam direction (AP/PA), and breathing training type (free breathing/audio instruction/visual feedback). Dose difference and distance-to-agreement analysis was employed to quantify results. Based on our data, the dosimetric impact of prediction (a) increased with response time, (b) was larger for 3D radiation therapy as compared with 4D radiation therapy, (c) was relatively insensitive to change in beam energy and beam direction, (d) was greater for IMRT distributions as compared with conformal distributions, (e) was smaller than the dosimetric impact of latency, and (f) was greatest for respiration motion with audio instructions, followed by visual feedback and free breathing. Geometric errors of prediction that occur during 4D radiation delivery introduce dosimetric errors that are dependent on several factors, such as response time, treatment-delivery type, and beam energy. Even for relatively small response times of 0.6 s into the future, dosimetric errors due to prediction could approach delivery errors when respiratory motion is not accounted for at all. To reduce the dosimetric impact, better predictive models and/or shorter response times are required.

Anteroposterior pelvic radiographs to assess acetabular retroversion: high validity of the "cross-over-sign"

Acetabular retroversion has been proposed to contribute to the development of osteoarthritis of the hip. For the diagnosis of this condition, conventional AP pelvic radiographs may represent a reliable, easily available diagnostic modality as they can be obtained with a reproducible technique allowing the anterior and posterior acetabular rims to be visible for assessment. This study was designed to: (i) determine cranial, central, and caudal anatomic acetabular version (AV) from cadaveric specimens; (ii) establish the validity and reliability of the radiographic measurements of central acetabular anteversion; and (iii) determine the validity and reliability of the radiographic "cross-over-sign" to detect acetabular retroversion. Using 43 desiccated pelvises (86 acetabuli) the anatomic AVs were measured at three different transverse planes (cranially, centrally, and caudally). From these pelvises, standardized AP pelvic radiographs were obtained. To directly measure central AV, a modified radiographic method is introduced for the use of AP pelvic radiographs. The validity and reliability of this radiographic method and of the radiographic cross-over-sign to detect cranial acetabular retroversion were determined. The mean central and caudal anatomic AVs were approximately 20 degrees , and the mean cranial AV was 8 degrees . Cranial retroversion (AV < 0 degrees ) was present in 19 of 86 hips (22%). A linear correlation was found between the central and cranial AV. Below 10 degrees of central AV, all acetabuli were cranially retroverted. Between 10 degrees and 20 degrees , 30% of the acetabuli were cranially retroverted, and above 20 degrees , only 1 of 45 acetabuli was cranially retroverted. The radiographic measurement of the central AV (20.3 +/- 6.5 degrees ) correlated strongly with the anatomic AV (20.1 +/- 6.4 degrees ). The sensitivity of the cross-over-sign to detect a cranial acetabular anteversion of less than 4 degrees was 96%, its specificity 95%, and the positive predictive and negative predictive values 90% and 98%, respectively. Both the modified radiographic anteversion measurements and the cross-over-sign demonstrated substantial inter- and intraobserver reliability. Retroversion is almost exclusively a problem of the cranial acetabulum. The cranial AV is on average 12 degrees lower than the central AV, with the latter directly measurable from AP pelvic radiographs. A central AV of less than 10 degrees was associated with cranial retroversion. The presence of a positive cross-over-sign is a highly reliable indicator of cranial AV of <4 degrees.

Predictive value of known and novel alleles of CYP2B6 for efavirenz plasma concentrations in HIV-infected individuals

To assess the association of CYP2B6 allelic diversity with efavirenz (EFV) pharmacokinetics, we performed extensive genotyping of 15 relevant single nucleotide polymorphism in 169 study participants, and full resequencing of CYP2B6 in individuals with abnormal EFV plasma levels. Seventy-seven (45.5%) individuals carried a known (CYP2B6*6, *11, *15, or *18) or new loss/diminished-function alleles. Resequencing defined two new loss-of-function alleles: allele *27 (marked by 593T>C [M198T]), that results in 85% decrease in enzyme activity and allele *28 (marked by 1132C>T), that results in protein truncation at arginine 378. Median AUC levels were 188.5 microg h/ml for individuals homozygous for a loss/diminished-function allele, 58.6 microg h/ml for carriers, and 43.7 microg h/ml for noncarriers (P<0.0001). Individuals with a poor metabolizer genotype had a likelihood ratio of 35 (95% CI, 11-110) of presenting very high EFV plasma levels. CYP2B6 poor metabolizer genotypes explain to a large extent EFV pharmacokinetics and identify individuals at risk of extremely elevated EFV plasma levels.

Comparison of periapical radiography and limited cone-beam tomography in posterior maxillary teeth referred for apical surgery

This study compared periapical (PA) radiography and cone-beam tomography (CBT) for preoperative diagnosis in posterior maxillary teeth of consecutive patients referred for possible apical surgery. Images were concurrently analyzed by an oral radiologist and an endodontist to reach consensus in interpretation of the radiographic findings. The final material included 37 premolars and 37 molars with a total of 156 roots. CBT showed significantly more lesions (34%, p < 0.001) than PA radiography. Detecting lesions with PA radiography alone was most difficult in second molars or in roots in close proximity to the maxillary sinus floor. Additional findings were seen significantly more frequently in CBT compared with PA radiography including expansion of lesions into the maxillary sinus (p < 0.001), sinus membrane thickening (p < 0.001), and missed canals (p < 0.05). The present study highlights the advantages of using CBT for preoperative treatment planning in maxillary posterior teeth with apical pathology.

Immediate and early non-occlusal loading of Straumann implants with a chemically modified surface (SLActive) in the posterior mandible and maxilla: interim results from a prospective multicenter randomized-controlled study

OBJECTIVE: Immediate and early loading of dental implants can simplify treatment and increase overall patient satisfaction. The purpose of this 3-year prospective randomized-controlled multicenter study was to assess the differences in survival rates and bone level changes between immediately and early-loaded implants with a new chemically modified surface (SLActive). This investigation shows interim results obtained after 5 months. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients > or =18 years of age missing at least one tooth in the posterior maxilla or mandible were enrolled in the study. Following implant placement, patients received a temporary restoration either on the day of surgery (immediate loading) or 28-34 days after surgery (early loading); restorations consisted of single crowns or two to four unit fixed dental prostheses. Permanent restorations were placed 20-23 weeks following surgery. The primary efficacy variable was change in bone level (assessed by standardized radiographs) from baseline to 5 months; secondary variables included implant survival and success rates. RESULTS: A total of 266 patients were enrolled (118 males and 148 females), and a total of 383 implants were placed (197 and 186 in the immediate and early loading groups, respectively). Mean patient age was 46.3+/-12.8 years. After 5 months, implant survival rates were 98% in the immediate group and 97% in the early group. Mean bone level change from baseline was 0.81+/-0.89 mm in the immediate group and 0.56+/-0.73 mm in the early group (P<0.05). Statistical analysis revealed a significant center effect (P<0.0001) and a significant treatment x center interaction (P=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested that Straumann implants with an SLActive can be used predictably in time-critical (early or immediate) loading treatment protocols when appropriate patient selection criteria are observed. The mean bone level changes observed from baseline to 5 months (0.56 and 0.81 mm) corresponded to physiological observations from other studies, i.e., were not clinically significant. The presence of a significant center effect and treatment x center interaction indicated that the differences in bone level changes between the two groups were center dependent.

Implant Failure Predictors in the Posterior Maxilla: A Retrospective Study of 273 Consecutive Implants

Background: The goal of this study was to retrospectively analyze a cohort of 136 patients who underwent dental implant placement in the posterior maxilla at the University of Connecticut Health Center to assess and identify predictors for implant failure in the posterior maxilla. Methods: Data were retrieved from patient charts to identify subjects older than 21 years of age who received dental implant(s) in the posterior maxilla. Patients without a postoperative baseline radiograph were excluded. A recall radiograph was taken 3 to 6 months after implant placement. If there was no recall radiograph, the subject was contacted for a recall visit that included a clinical evaluation and radiographs to determine the implant status. Based on a univariate screening, variables considered potential implant failure predictors included gender, diabetes, smoking, implant length, implant diameter, membrane use, sinus-elevation technique, and surgical complications. These parameters were further assessed, and a multivariable logistic regression was performed with implant failure as a dependant variable. All tests of significance were evaluated at the 0.05 error level. Results: Two hundred seventy-three implants were placed in the posterior maxilla. Fourteen implants failed (early and late failures combined), resulting in a 94.9% overall survival rate. The survival rates for the sinus-elevation group and native bone group were 92.2% and 96.7%, respectively (P = 0.090). Based on the multivariable analysis, sinus floor-elevation procedures were not associated with increased risk for implant failure (P = 0.702). In contrast, smoking and surgical complications had a statistically significant effect on implant failure; the odds ratios for implant failure were 6.4 (P = 0.025) and 8.2 (P = 0.004), respectively. Conclusion: Sinus-elevation procedures with simultaneous or staged implant placement do not increase the risk for implant failure, whereas smoking and surgical complications markedly increase the risk for implant failure.

Bloodstream infections in pediatric ECLS: usefulness of daily blood culture monitoring and predictive value of biological markers. The British Columbia experience

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of bloodstream infection (BSI) in extracorporeal life support (ECLS) is reported between 0.9 and 19.5%. In January 2006, the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) reported an overall incidence of 8.78% distributed as follows: respiratory: 6.5% (neonatal), 20.8% (pediatric); cardiac: 8.2% (neonatal) and 12.6% (pediatric). METHOD: At BC Children's Hospital (BCCH) daily surveillance blood cultures (BC) are performed and antibiotic prophylaxis is not routinely recommended. Positive BC (BC+) were reviewed, including resistance profiles, collection time of BC+, time to positivity and mortality. White blood cell count, absolute neutrophile count, immature/total ratio, platelet count, fibrinogen and lactate were analyzed 48, 24 and 0 h prior to BSI. A univariate linear regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2005, 89 patients underwent ECLS. After exclusion, 84 patients were reviewed. The attack rate was 22.6% (19 BSI) and 13.1% after exclusion of coagulase-negative staphylococci (n = 8). BSI patients were significantly longer on ECLS (157 h) compared to the no-BSI group (127 h, 95% CI: 106-148). Six BSI patients died on ECLS (35%; 4 congenital diaphragmatic hernias, 1 hypoplastic left heart syndrome and 1 after a tetralogy repair). BCCH survival on ECLS was 71 and 58% at discharge, which is comparable to previous reports. No patient died primarily because of BSI. No BSI predictor was identified, although lactate may show a decreasing trend before BSI (P = 0.102). CONCLUSION: Compared with ELSO, the studied BSI incidence was higher with a comparable mortality. We speculate that our BSI rate is explained by underreporting of "contaminants" in the literature, the use of broad-spectrum antibiotic prophylaxis and a higher yield with daily monitoring BC. We support daily surveillance blood cultures as an alternative to antibiotic prophylaxis in the management of patients on ECLS.

Control algorithms for large scale adaptive optics

In this dissertation, the problem of creating effective large scale Adaptive Optics (AO) systems control algorithms for the new generation of giant optical telescopes is addressed. The effectiveness of AO control algorithms is evaluated in several respects, such as computational complexity, compensation error rejection and robustness, i.e. reasonable insensitivity to the system imperfections. The results of this research are summarized as follows: 1. Robustness study of Sparse Minimum Variance Pseudo Open Loop Controller (POLC) for multi-conjugate adaptive optics (MCAO). The AO system model that accounts for various system errors has been developed and applied to check the stability and performance of the POLC algorithm, which is one of the most promising approaches for the future AO systems control. It has been shown through numerous simulations that, despite the initial assumption that the exact system knowledge is necessary for the POLC algorithm to work, it is highly robust against various system errors. 2. Predictive Kalman Filter (KF) and Minimum Variance (MV) control algorithms for MCAO. The limiting performance of the non-dynamic Minimum Variance and dynamic KF-based phase estimation algorithms for MCAO has been evaluated by doing Monte-Carlo simulations. The validity of simple near-Markov autoregressive phase dynamics model has been tested and its adequate ability to predict the turbulence phase has been demonstrated both for single- and multiconjugate AO. It has also been shown that there is no performance improvement gained from the use of the more complicated KF approach in comparison to the much simpler MV algorithm in the case of MCAO. 3. Sparse predictive Minimum Variance control algorithm for MCAO. The temporal prediction stage has been added to the non-dynamic MV control algorithm in such a way that no additional computational burden is introduced. It has been confirmed through simulations that the use of phase prediction makes it possible to significantly reduce the system sampling rate and thus overall computational complexity while both maintaining the system stable and effectively compensating for the measurement and control latencies.

Shell brace for stage II posterior tibial tendon insufficiency

BACKGROUND: The nonoperative treatment of posterior tibial tendon insufficiency (PTTI) can lead to unsatisfactory functional results. Short-term results are available but the impact on the evolution of the deformity is not known. To address these problems, a new brace for the flexible Stage II deformity was developed, and midterm followup was obtained. MATERIALS AND METHOD: In a prospective case series, eighteen patients (mean age 64.2 years; range, 31 to 82; four male, 14 female) with flexible Stage II PTTI were fitted with the new custom-molded foot orthosis. At latest followup of a mean of 61.4 (range, 20 to 87) months, functional results were assessed with the AOFAS ankle hindfoot score and clinical or radiographic progression was recorded. RESULTS: The score improved significantly from a mean of 56 points (range, 20 to 64) to a mean of 82 points (range, 64 to 100, p < 0.001). Three patients (3/18, 16%) had a clinical progression to a fixed deformity (Stage III) and a radiographic increase of their deformity. All the other patients were satisfied with the brace's comfort and noted an improvement in their mobility. Complications were seen in three patients (3/18, 16%), and consisted of the development of calluses. CONCLUSION: The "shell brace" is a valuable option for nonoperative treatment of the flexible Stage II PTTI. Hindfoot flexibility was conserved throughout the observation period in all but three patients. Functional outcome and patient acceptance was above average. Problems were few, and closely associated with a progression to a fixed, Stage III deformity.

Associations with multiple pituitary hormone deficiency in patients with an ectopic posterior pituitary gland

INTRODUCTION: The presence of an ectopic posterior pituitary gland (EPP) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is associated with hypopituitarism with one or more hormone deficiencies. We aimed to identify risk factors for having multiple pituitary hormone deficiency (MPHD) compared to isolated growth hormone deficiency (IGHD) in patients with an EPP. METHODS: In 67 patients (45 male) with an EPP on MRI, the site (hypothalamic vs. stalk) and surface area (SA) [ x (maximum diameter/2) x (maximum height/2), mm(2)] of the EPP were recorded and compared in patients with IGHD and MPHD in relation to clinical characteristics. RESULTS: In MPHD (n = 32) compared to IGHD (n = 35) patients: age of presentation was younger (1.4 [0.1-10.7]vs. 4.0 [0.1-11.3] years, P = 0.005), major incidents during pregnancy were increased (47%vs. 20%, P = 0.02) as were admissions to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) (60%vs. 26%, P = 0.04), whilst EPP SA was lower (12.3 [2.4-34.6]vs. 25.7 [6.9-48.2] mm(2), P < 0.001). In patients with a hypothalamic (n = 56) compared to a stalk sited EPP (n = 11): prevalence of MPHD was greater (55%vs. 9%,P = 0.05) and EPP surface area was smaller (17.3 [2.4-48.2]vs. 25.3 [11.8-38.5] mm(2), P < 0.001). In regression analysis, after adjusting for age, presence of MPHD was associated with: major incidents during pregnancy (RR 6.8 [95%CI 1.2-37.7]), hypothalamic EPP site (RR 10.9 [1.0-123.9]) and small EPP SA (RR 2.5 [1.0-5.0] for tertiles of SA). CONCLUSION: In patients with an EPP, adverse antenatal events, size (small) and position (hypothalamic) of the posterior pituitary gland on MRI were associated with MPHD. These findings suggest that adverse factors during pregnancy may be important for the development of an EPP.

Predictive control of hybrid vehicle powertrain for intelligent energy management

This thesis studies the minimization of the fuel consumption for a Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) using Model Predictive Control (MPC). The presented MPC – based controller calculates an optimal sequence of control inputs to a hybrid vehicle using the measured plant outputs, the current dynamic states, a system model, system constraints, and an optimization cost function. The MPC controller is developed using Matlab MPC control toolbox. To evaluate the performance of the presented controller, a power-split hybrid vehicle, 2004 Toyota Prius, is selected. The vehicle uses a planetary gear set to combine three power components, an engine, a motor, and a generator, and transfer energy from these components to the vehicle wheels. The planetary gear model is developed based on the Willis’s formula. The dynamic models of the engine, the motor, and the generator, are derived based on their dynamics at the planetary gear. The MPC controller for HEV energy management is validated in the MATLAB/Simulink environment. Both the step response performance (a 0 – 60 mph step input) and the driving cycle tracking performance are evaluated. Two standard driving cycles, Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (UDDS) and Highway Fuel Economy Driving Schedule (HWFET), are used in the evaluation tests. For the UDDS and HWFET driving cycles, the simulation results, the fuel consumption and the battery state of charge, using the MPC controller are compared with the simulation results using the original vehicle model in Autonomie. The MPC approach shows the feasibility to improve vehicle performance and minimize fuel consumption.