Az európai gazdasági kormányzás előtt álló kihívások. A hármas tagadás lehetetlensége (Challenges of European economic governance. The impossible trinity of denial.)

Az európai gazdasági integráció folyamata olyan kényszerhelyzetekben formálódott a múltban, amelyek a közgazdaságtudományban jól ismert lehetetlen háromság alapján is leírhatók. Az Európai Monetáris Rendszer a rögzített árfolyam-mechanizmusra és önálló jegybanki politikára épített, korlátozva a tőkemozgásokat. A Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió ugyanakkor a tőke szabad áramlásával és az árfolyamok visszavonhatatlan rögzítésével felszámolta a tagállami szintű jegybanki autonómiát. Az euróövezet működése egyszersmind arra a háromszoros tagadásra épül(t), hogy 1. nem lehetséges az euróövezetből való kilépés, 2. nem engedélyezett a kimentés és 3. nem kerülhet sor államcsődre. A 2008-ban Európát is elérő pénzügyi és gazdasági válság azonban elemi erővel mutatott rá e hármas tiltás tarthatatlanságára. A gazdasági kormányzás körül kibontakozott viták így jól közelíthetők a három tiltó szabály egyidejű érvényesülése lehetetlenségének bemutatásával, számba véve az egyes opciók költségeit és lehetséges hasznait. / === / The process of economic integration in the EU has been shaped by the well-known theorem of the impossible trinity. Accordingly, the European Monetary System was built upon a mix of a fixed exchange-rate regime and an autonomous monetary policy, thereby constraining capital mobility. In launching the EMU project, the EU countries decided to fix national currencies irrevocably and maintain full capital mobility, in exchange for delegating their monetary policy upwards to a supranational level. The introduction of the Euro zone, however, has simultaneously meant denial of the following three elements: (1) exit, (2) bail-out, and (3) default. Nevertheless, the 2008–9 financial and economic crisis has demonstrated mercilessly that these three pillars are incompatible with each other. So the current debates on reshaping economic governance in the EU can be modelled by introducing the “impossible trinity of denial”, concentrating on the benefits and the costs of each option.

Rules-based economic governance in the European Union: A reappraisal of national fiscal rules.

The economic and financial crisis of 2007/2009 has posed unexpected challenges on both the global and the regional level. Besides the US, the EU has been the most severely hit by the current economic crisis. The financial and banking crisis on the one hand and the sovereign debt crisis on the other hand have clearly shown that without a bold, constructive and systematic change of the economic governance structure of the Union, not just the sustainability of the monetary zone but also the viability of the whole European integration process can be seriously undermined. The current crisis is, however, only a symptom, which made all those contradictions overt that were already heavily embedded in the system. Right from the very beginning, the deficit and the debt rules of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact have proved to be controversial cornerstones in the fiscal governance framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Yet, member states of the EU (both within and outside of the EMU) have shown an immense interest in adopting numerical constraints on the domestic level without hesitation. The main argument for the introduction of national fiscal rules was mostly to strengthen the accountability and credibility of national fiscal policy-making. The paper, however, claims that a relatively large portion of national rules were adopted only after the start of deceleration of the debt-to-GDP ratios. Accordingly, national rules were hardly the sole triggering factors of maintaining fiscal discipline; rather, they served as the key elements of a comprehensive reform package of public budgeting. It can be safely argued, therefore, that countries decide to adopt fiscal rules because they want to explicitly signal their strong commitment to fiscal discipline. In other words, it is not fiscal rules per se what matter in delivering fiscal stability but a strong political commitment.

Az európai integráció hatása a közép-kelet-európai országok mezőgazdaságára (The effect of European integration on agriculture in Central East European countries)

Az Európai Unió számos új lehetőséget kínált és új kihívást jelentett a 2004-ben és 2007-ben belépő 12 új tagország számára. A csatlakozás mezőgazdaságra gyakorolt hatása már a bővítést megelőzően is az egyik legtöbbet vitatott kérdés volt mind a régi tagországok, mind a tagjelöltek körében. A szerzők az új tagországok agrárgazdasági teljesítményei mögött meghúzódó tényezőket igyekeznek azonosítani a legfrissebb adatok és az eddigi tapasztalatok tükrében. Eredményeik szerint a csatlakozás alapvetően pozitív hatást gyakorolt a térség mezőgazdaságára, noha az egyes országok különböző módon éltek a csatlakozás kínálta lehetőségeikkel, ami a kezdeti adottságokkal, valamint a belépés előtti és utáni agrárpolitikájukkal magyarázható. A pozitív hatások mellett számos nehézség is felmerült - ezek közül az erős versenyben való helytállás nehézségei, illetve a kisgazdaságok hátrányos helyzete bizonyultak a leginkább meghatározónak.

Az európai uniós tagság mint modernizációs hajtóerő. Gondolatok a kelet-közép-európai országok EU-tagságának 10. évfordulóján = EU membership as a driving force of modernization. Ideas on the 10th anniversary of EU membership of East Central European countries

A szerző az Európai Unióhoz az elmúlt évtizedben csatlakozott országok felzárkózásának összefüggéseit vizsgálja, rámutatva arra, hogy a kelet-közép-európai térség országainak természetes modernizációs központja az Európai Unió. Az európai integrációba történő szerves beépülésnek nem volt és a jövőben sincs reális alternatívája. Annak ellenére, hogy a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági válság rendkívül kedvezőtlen fordulatot hozott, az új tagországok többségében jelentős ütemű felzárkózási folyamat indult el: egy évtizeden belül relatív pozíciójuk az uniós átlaghoz képest átlagosan 15 százalékpont javult a vásárlóerő-paritáson mért egy főre jutó GDP-t tekintve. A tagság számos előnye közül ki kell emelni, hogy az uniós költségvetésből származó közvetlen transzferek hatására az új tagállamok számottevő külső forráshoz jutottak, aminek révén hosszú távú fejlődésüket és versenyképességüket befolyásoló területeken jelentős beruházásokat hajthattak végre. E transzferek kapcsán a szerző felhívja a figyelmet arra, hogy a szűk látókörűen számított nettó haszonélvezői pozíció valójában kölcsönös előnyöket rejt: az EU fejlettebb országai számára is komoly előnyök származnak a megnövekedett importkeresletből és általában a bővülés kereskedelemteremtő hatásaiból. _____ The author analyses some catch-up aspects of countries joining the EU in 2004 and 2007, pointing out that the EU is an obvious centre of modernization for the countries in East Central Europe. There was no realistic alternative to participating in the European integration process and this applies also to the future. Contrary to the extremely bad general environment caused by the international financial and economic crisis, most new member-states were able to converge on the EU average quite fast: within a decade the relative regional level of development measured in GDP per capita terms and compared with the EU average increased by 15 per cent. It should be stressed that among several advantages of EU membership, direct transfers from the EU-level budget played a crucial role in improving competitiveness through investment. Looking beyond narrow-minded net budgetary positions, the author sees mutual comprehensive benefits: the more developed member-states can enjoy additional demand for their products, and in general benefit from the trade-creating effects of enlargement.

Integration of Satellite and Financial Data to Model Future Economic Impact of Citrus Crops (Final Project Report)

This study analyzed the health and overall landcover of citrus crops in Florida. The analysis was completed using Landsat satellite imagery available free of charge from the University of Maryland Global Landcover Change Facility. The project hypothesized that combining citrus production (economic) data with citrus area per county derived from spectral signatures would yield correlations between observable spectral reflectance throughout the year, and the fiscal impact of citrus on local economies. A positive correlation between these two data types would allow us to predict the economic impact of citrus using spectral data analysis to determine final crop harvests.

European integration and democratic consolidation: Spain, Poland and Turkey in comparative perspective

The study explored when, under what conditions, and to what extent did European integration, particularly the European Union’s requirement for democratic conditionality, contribute to democratic consolidation in Spain, Poland, and Turkey? On the basis of a four-part definition, the dissertation examined the democratizing impact of European integration process on each of the following four components of consolidation: (i) holding of fair, free and competitive elections, (ii) protection of fundamental rights, including human and minority rights, (iii) high prospects of regime survival and civilian control of the military, and (iv) legitimacy, elite consensus, and stateness. To assess the relative significance of EU’s democratizing leverage, the thesis also examined domestic and non-EU international dynamics of democratic consolidation in the three countries. By employing two qualitative methods (case study and process-tracing), the study focused on three specific time frames: 1977–1986 for Spain, 1994–2004 for Poland, and 1999–present for Turkey. In addition to official documents, newspapers, and secondary sources, face-to-face interviews made with politicians, academics, experts, bureaucrats, and journalists in the three countries were utilized. The thesis generated several conclusions. First of all, the EU’s democratizing impact is not uniform across different components of democratic consolidation. Moreover, the EU’s democratizing leverage in Spain, Poland, and Turkey involved variations over time for three major reasons: (i) the changing nature of EU’s democratic conditionality over time (ii) varying levels of the EU’s credible commitment to the candidate country’s prospect for membership, and (iii) domestic dynamics in the candidate countries. Furthermore, the European integration process favors democratic consolidation but its magnitude is shaped by the candidate country’s prospect for EU membership and domestic factors in the candidate country. Finally, the study involves a major policy implication for the European Union: unless the EU provides a clear prospect for membership, its democratizing leverage will be limited in the candidate countries.

To land or not to land : How do stakeholders perceive the zero discard policy in European small-scale fisheries?

The authors wish to acknowledge the valuable comments and suggestions made by members of the Committee of Fisheries of the European Parliament. The authors also thank the financial support of the European Parliament (IP/B/PECH/IC/2014–084) and the assistance of Ojama Priit and Marcus Brewer. SV acknowledges the financial support from the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) (Grant no 11-CAP2–1406) and the Galician Government (Consellería de Cultura, Educación e Ordenación Universitaria, Xunta de Galicia) (Grant no R2014/023). MC acknowledges the financial support from the European Commission through the Marie Curie Career Integration Grant Fellowships – PCIG10-GA-2011–303534 - to the BIOWEB project. CP and GP acknowledge the financial support of Caixa Geral de Depósitos (Portugal) and the University of Aveiro. CP would also like to acknowledge FCT/MEC national funds and FEDER co-funding, within the PT2020 partnership Agreement and Compete 2020, for the financial support to CESAM (Grant no UID/AMB/50017/2013). JMDR and JGC thanks the financial support from the European Commission (MINOW H2020-SFS-2014–2, No 634495) and Xunta de Galicia (GRC 2015/014 and ECOBAS). MA acknowledges financial aid of Xunta de Galicia through Project GPC 2013–045. URS and CP acknowledge the Too Big to Ignore Partnership supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Performance of European Acquisitions

This study looks at the impact of the recent financial crisis on the short-term performance of European acquisitions. We use institutional theory and transaction cost economic theory to study whether bidders derive lower or higher returns from acquisitions announced after 2008. We investigate shareholders’ stock price reaction to 2245 deals which occurred during 2004–12 across 22 European Union countries. Our results from both univariate and multivariate analysis show that the deals announced in the post-crisis period, corresponding to the period of economic recession, generate higher returns to shareholders as compared to acquisitions announced in the pre-crisis period. We also test the relevance of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), that is, the Eurozone, to this value accrual during the recessionary period. We observe that non-EMU transactions obtain significantly higher gains vis-à-vis EMU transactions in the post-crisis years. Overall, announcement returns of European acquisitions have been affected by the financial crisis and the global recession; and companies that target countries with different currency regimes are likely to generate better returns from their acquisitions.

Can the European Union build a bridge over troubled waters? An analysis of the politicised and depoliticised legal approach between the European Union and Cyprus

The Cyprus dispute accurately portrays the evolution of the conflict from ‘warfare to lawfare’ enriched in politics; this research has proven that the Cyprus problem has been and will continue to be one of the most judicialised disputes across the globe. Notwithstanding the ‘normalisation’ of affairs between the two ethno-religious groups on the island since the division in 1974, the Republic of Cyprus’ (RoC) European Union (EU) membership in 2004 failed to catalyse reunification and terminate the legal, political and economic isolation of the Turkish Cypriot community. So the question is; why is it that the powerful legal order of the EU continuously fails to tame the tiny troublesome island of Cyprus? This is a thesis on the interrelationship of the EU legal order and the Cyprus problem. A literal and depoliticised interpretation of EU law has been maintained throughout the EU’s dealings with Cyprus, hence, pre-accession and post-accession. The research has brought to light that this literal interpretation of EU law vis-à-vis Cyprus has in actual fact deepened the division on the island. Pessimists outnumber optimists so far as resolving this problem is concerned, and rightly so if you look back over the last forty years of failed attempts to do just that, a diplomatic combat zone scattered with the bones of numerous mediators. This thesis will discuss how the decisions of the EU institutions, its Member States and specifically of the European Court of Justice, despite conforming to the EU legal order, have managed to disregard the principle of equality on the divided island and thus prevent the promised upgrade of the status of the Turkish Cypriot community since 2004. Indeed, whether a positive or negative reading of the Union’s position towards the Cyprus problem is adopted, the case remains valid for an organisation based on the rule of law to maintain legitimacy, democracy, clarity and equality to the decisions of its institutions. Overall, the aim of this research is to establish a link between the lack of success of the Union to build a bridge over troubled waters and the right of self-determination of the Turkish Cypriot community. The only way left for the EU to help resolve the Cyprus problem is to aim to broker a deal between the two Cypriot communities which will permit the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) or at least the ‘Taiwanisation’ of Northern Cyprus. Albeit, there are many studies that address the impact of the EU on the conflict or the RoC, which represents the government that has monopolised EU accession, the argument advanced in this thesis is that despite the alleged Europeanisation of the Turkish Cypriot community, they are habitually disregarded because of the EU’s current legal framework and the Union’s lack of conflict transformation strategy vis-à-vis the island. Since the self-declared TRNC is not recognised and EU law is suspended in northern Cyprus in accordance with Protocol No 10 on Cyprus of the Act of Accession 2003, the Turkish-Cypriots represent an idiomatic partner of Brussels but the relations between the two resemble the experience of EU enlargement: the EU’s relevance to the community has been based on the prospects for EU accession (via reunification) and assistance towards preparation for potential EU integration through financial and technical aid. Undeniably, the pre-accession and postaccession strategy of Brussels in Cyprus has worsened the Cyprus problem and hindered the peace process. The time has come for the international community to formally acknowledge the existence of the TRNC.

Time domain decomposition for European options in financial modelling

Finance is one of the fastest growing areas in modern applied mathematics with real world applications. The interest of this branch of applied mathematics is best described by an example involving shares. Shareholders of a company receive dividends which come from the profit made by the company. The proceeds of the company, once it is taken over or wound up, will also be distributed to shareholders. Therefore shares have a value that reflects the views of investors about the likely dividend payments and capital growth of the company. Obviously such value will be quantified by the share price on stock exchanges. Therefore financial modelling serves to understand the correlations between asset and movements of buy/sell in order to reduce risk. Such activities depend on financial analysis tools being available to the trader with which he can make rapid and systematic evaluation of buy/sell contracts. There are other financial activities and it is not an intention of this paper to discuss all of these activities. The main concern of this paper is to propose a parallel algorithm for the numerical solution of an European option. This paper is organised as follows. First, a brief introduction is given of a simple mathematical model for European options and possible numerical schemes of solving such mathematical model. Second, Laplace transform is applied to the mathematical model which leads to a set of parametric equations where solutions of different parametric equations may be found concurrently. Numerical inverse Laplace transform is done by means of an inversion algorithm developed by Stehfast. The scalability of the algorithm in a distributed environment is demonstrated. Third, a performance analysis of the present algorithm is compared with a spatial domain decomposition developed particularly for time-dependent heat equation. Finally, a number of issues are discussed and future work suggested.

Transparency in European football : A study of financial disclosure transparency from a supporter perspective

Background and Problem: Despite the exploding increase in revenue by more than 500 percent (1996-2014) among European football clubs, the operating profit in the “big five” leagues are, paradoxically, inexistent or very low. Hence, there is a need for more transparent financial reporting in European football. To preserve the game’s well-being and establish a sustainable future, UEFA introduced Financial Fair Play (FFP) back in 2010 as a part of their club licensing requirements. The transparency that FFP is intended to improve is however only disclosed to UEFA and its member associations, which is only one of many stakeholders. In times of financial turmoil in European football clubs, where fair play and sustainability is frequently discussed since the implementation of FFP, one could ask; is it really fair play that not all European football clubs are obligated to be transparent towards all their stakeholders and supporters? Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to, from a supporter perspective, look at how transparent European football clubs’ financial disclosure is. Methodology: The research has elements of both a deductive and an inductive approach and uses a disclosure checklist with a cross-sectional design, in order to measure disclosure transparency.  Empirical Results and Conclusion: Even though the empirical findings proved that financial reporting transparency are present within European football, the conclusion is that the financial reporting is generally not transparent within the industry.

The credit channel transmission of monetary policy in the European Union

This paper confirms the importance of the financial systems behaviour conditions to the credit channel of monetary policy in the entire European Union (EU). It uses panel fixed- effect estimations and quarterly data for 26 EU countries for the period from Q1 1999 to Q3 2006 in an adaptation of the Bernanke and Blinder (1988) model. The findings also reveal the high degree of foreign dependence and indebtedness of the EU banking institutions and their similar reactions to the macroeconomic and the monetary policy environments.