A comparison of factors influencing perceived risk by French and Australian cyclists and drivers

Differences in the levels of risk perceived by cyclists and car drivers may contribute to the dangers in their interactions. Levels of perceived risk have been shown to vary according to personal and environmental factors and between countries. Cycling rates in France are higher than in Australia, particularly among women. This study investigated whether cultural differences between France and Australia are reflected in perceived risks for experienced adult cyclists and drivers in the two countries. In online surveys, regular cyclists (France 336, Australia 444) and drivers (France 92, Australia 151) were asked to rate the level of risk in six situations: failure to yield; going through a red light; not signalling when turning; swerving; tail-gating; and not checking traffic. The effects of type of interacting vehicle and participant type on perceived risk were similar in France and Australia. However, the influence of responsibility for the risky behaviour differed according to participant type, type of situation and nationality. When the bicycle rider committed the road rule violation, Australian cyclists and drivers gave higher risk ratings than French cyclists and drivers. In both countries, cyclists rated themselves significantly higher than drivers on the perceived control and overconfidence subscales of the perceived skill measure. The French cyclists rated themselves higher than Australian cyclists on these scales, which could be responsible for overall lower perceived risk levels when interacting with a bike. Australian cyclists rated themselves significantly lower than drivers on the incompetence subscale but French cyclists rated themselves higher than drivers. In both countries incompetence scores were positively related to levels of perceived risk. Weekly time was associated with perceived risk in Australia but not in France. Frequency of traffic violations was not associated with perceived risk in either country. In conclusion, levels of perceived risk differed between drivers and cyclists in both countries and were influenced by type of interacting vehicle, experience and perceived skill. However, some differences between the results from the two countries merit further investigation to shed light on potential improvements in safety and cycling participation.

Eccentric hamstring strength and hamstring injury risk in Australian footballers

Purpose Is eccentric hamstring strength and between limb imbalance in eccentric strength, measured during the Nordic hamstring exercise, a risk factor for hamstring strain injury (HSI)? Methods Elite Australian footballers (n=210) from five different teams participated. Eccentric hamstring strength during the Nordic was taken at the commencement and conclusion of preseason training and in season. Injury history and demographic data were also collected. Reports on prospectively occurring HSIs were completed by team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results Twenty-eight HSIs were recorded. Eccentric hamstring strength below 256N at the start of preseason and 279N at the end of preseason increased risk of future HSI 2.7 (relative risk, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.5; p = 0.006) and 4.3 fold (relative risk, 4.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 11.0; p = 0.002) respectively. Between limb imbalance in strength of greater than 10% did not increase the risk of future HSI. Univariate analysis did not reveal a significantly greater relative risk for future HSI in athletes who had sustained a lower limb injury of any kind within the last 12 months. Logistic regression revealed interactions between both athlete age and history of HSI with eccentric hamstring strength, whereby the likelihood of future HSI in older athletes or athletes with a history of HSI was reduced if an athlete had high levels of eccentric strength. Conclusion Low levels of eccentric hamstring strength increased the risk of future HSI. Interaction effects suggest that the additional risk of future HSI associated with advancing age or previous injury was mitigated by higher levels of eccentric hamstring strength.

An integrated modeling and risk analysis tool for mine water interactions

Poor mine water management can lead to corporate, environmental and social risks. These risks become more pronounced as mining operations move into areas of water scarcity and/or increase climatic variability while also managing increased demand, lower ore grades and increased strip ratios. Therefore, it is vital that mine sites better understand these risks in order to implement management practices to address them. Systems models provide an effective approach to understand complex networks, particularly across multiple scales. Previous work has represented mine water interactions using systems model on a mine site scale. Here, we expand on that work by present an integrated tool that uses a systems modeling approach to represent mine water interactions on a site and regional scale and then analyses the risks associated with events stemming from those interactions. A case study is presented to represent three indicative corporate, environmental and social risks associated with a mine site that exists in a water scarce region. The tool is generic and flexible, and can be used in many scenarios to provide significant potential utility to the mining industry.

Stature estimation of a contemporary Australian sub-population: An evaluation of the Trotter and Gleser method using computed tomography of the femur

Utilising computed tomography scans to allow a virtual analysis of three-dimensional reconstructions of the femur, this project confirms that the traditional 1952 Trotter and Gleser stature estimation equations are inapplicable for a contemporary Queensland population. Therefore, this study introduces modern stature estimation equations for femoral length and fragmentary femoral remains using Bayesian statistics for application in forensic anthropological casework. In addition, it was found that caution needs to be applied when comparing estimated stature to reported stature on the missing persons database due to inaccuracy in Queensland drivers' licences.

An investigation of the impact of various geographical scales for the specification of spatial dependence

Ecological studies are based on characteristics of groups of individuals, which are common in various disciplines including epidemiology. It is of great interest for epidemiologists to study the geographical variation of a disease by accounting for the positive spatial dependence between neighbouring areas. However, the choice of scale of the spatial correlation requires much attention. In view of a lack of studies in this area, this study aims to investigate the impact of differing definitions of geographical scales using a multilevel model. We propose a new approach -- the grid-based partitions and compare it with the popular census region approach. Unexplained geographical variation is accounted for via area-specific unstructured random effects and spatially structured random effects specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive process. Using grid-based modelling of random effects in contrast to the census region approach, we illustrate conditions where improvements are observed in the estimation of the linear predictor, random effects, parameters, and the identification of the distribution of residual risk and the aggregate risk in a study region. The study has found that grid-based modelling is a valuable approach for spatially sparse data while the SLA-based and grid-based approaches perform equally well for spatially dense data.

Assessment of Geogenic Contaminants in Water Co-Produced with Coal Seam Gas Extraction in Queensland, Australia : Implications for Human Health Risk

Organic compounds in Australian coal seam gas produced water (CSG water) are poorly understood despite their environmental contamination potential. In this study, the presence of some organic substances is identified from government-held CSG water-quality data from the Bowen and Surat Basins, Queensland. These records revealed the presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 27% of samples of CSG water from the Walloon Coal Measures at concentrations <1 µg/L, and it is likely these compounds leached from in situ coals. PAHs identified from wells include naphthalene, phenanthrene, chrysene and dibenz[a,h]anthracene. In addition, the likelihood of coal-derived organic compounds leaching to groundwater is assessed by undertaking toxicity leaching experiments using coal rank and water chemistry as variables. These tests suggest higher molecular weight PAHs (including benzo[a]pyrene) leach from higher rank coals, whereas lower molecular weight PAHs leach at greater concentrations from lower rank coal. Some of the identified organic compounds have carcinogenic or health risk potential, but they are unlikely to be acutely toxic at the observed concentrations which are almost negligible (largely due to the hydrophobicity of such compounds). Hence, this study will be useful to practitioners assessing CSG water related environmental and health risk.

AR and gamification concepts to reduce driver boredom and risk taking behaviours

Young males are over-represented in road crashes. Part of the problem is their proneness to boredom, a hardwired personality factor that can lead to risky driving. This paper presents a theoretical understanding of boredom in the driving context and demonstrates convincing arguments to investigate the role of boredom further. Specifically, this paper calls for the design of innovative technologies and applications that make safe driving more pleasurable and stimulating for young males, e.g., by applying gamification techniques. We propose two design concepts through the following questions: A. Can the simulation of risky driving reduce actual risky driving? B. Can the replacement of risky driving stimuli with alternative stimuli reduce risky driving? We argue that considering these questions in the future design of automotive user-interfaces and personal ubiquitous computing devices could effectively reduce risky driving behaviours among young males.

The impact of litigation risk on the strategic timing of management earnings forecasts

This paper examines whether managers strategically time their earnings forecasts (MEFs) as litigation risk increases. We find as litigation risk increases, the propensity to release a delayed forecast until after the market is closed (AMC) or a Friday decreases but not proportionally more for bad news than for good news. Host costly this behaviour is to investors is questionable as share price returns do not reveal any under-reaction to strategically timed bad news MEF released AMC. We also find evidence consistent with managers timing their MEFs during a natural no-trading period to better disseminate information.

Continuing to drive while sleepy : the influence of sleepiness countermeasures, motivation for driving sleepy, and risk perception

Driver sleepiness is a major contributor to road crashes. The current study sought to examine the association between perceptions of effectiveness of six sleepiness countermeasures and their relationship with self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy among 309 drivers after controlling for the influence of age, sex, motivation for driving sleepy, and risk perception of sleepy driving. The results demonstrate that the variables of age, sex, motivation, and risk perception were significantly associated with self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy and only one countermeasure was associated with self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy. Further, it was found that age differences in self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy was mediated by participants’ motivation and risk perception. These findings highlight modifiable factors that could be focused on with interventions that seek to modify drivers’ attitudes and behaviours of driving while sleepy.

Community engagement for disaster resilience : flood risk management in Jakarta, Indonesia

Understanding dynamics of interactions between community groups and government agencies is crucial to improve community resilience for flood risk reduction through effective community engagement strategies. Overall, a variety of approaches are available, however they are limited in their application. Based on research of a case study in Kampung Melayu Village in Jakarta, further complexity in engaging community emerges in planning policy which requires the relocation of households living in floodplains. This complexity arises in decision-making processes due to barriers to communication. This obstacle highlights the need for a simplified approach for an effective flood risk management which will be further explored in this paper. Qualitative analyses will be undertaken following semi-structured interviews conducted with key actors within government agencies, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and representatives of communities. The analyses involve investigation of barriers and constraints on community engagement in flood risk management, particularly relevant to collaboration mechanism, perception of risk, and technical literacy to flood risk. These analyses result in potential redirection of community consultation strategies to lead to a more effective collaboration among stakeholders in the decision-making processes. As a result, greater effectiveness in plan implementation of flood risk management potentially improves disaster resilience in the future.

Minimizing the effects of overfitting and collinearity in construction cost estimation : a new hybird approach

Research problem: Overfitting and collinearity problems commonly exist in current construction cost estimation applications and obstruct researchers and practitioners in achieving better modelling results. Research objective and method: A hybrid approach of Akaike information criterion (AIC) stepwise regression and principal component regression (PCR) is proposed to help solve overfitting and collinearity problems. Utilization of this approach in linear regression is validated by comparing it with other commonly used approaches. The mean square error obtained by leave-one-out cross validation (MSELOOCV) is used in model selection in deciding predictive variables.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Bottle-feeding and the risk of pyloric stenosis

OBJECTIVES: Bottle-feeding has been suggested to increase the risk of pyloric stenosis (PS). However, large population-based studies are needed. We examined the effect of bottle-feeding during the first 4 months after birth, by using detailed data about the timing of first exposure to bottle-feeding and extensive confounder information. METHODS: We performed a large population-based cohort study based on the Danish National Birth Cohort, which provided information on infants and feeding practice. Information about surgery for PS was obtained from the Danish National Patient Register. The association between bottle-feeding and the risk of PS was evaluated by hazard ratios (HRs) estimated in a Cox regression model, adjusting for possible confounders. RESULTS: Among 70 148 singleton infants, 65 infants had surgery for PS, of which 29 were bottle-fed before PS diagnosis. The overall HR of PS for bottle-fed infants compared with not bottle-fed infants was 4.62 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.78–7.65). Among bottle-fed infants, risk increases were similar for infants both breast and bottle-fed (HR: 3.36 [95% CI: 1.60–7.03]), formerly breastfed (HR: 5.38 [95% CI: 2.88–10.06]), and never breastfed (HR: 6.32 [95% CI: 2.45–16.26]) (P = .76). The increased risk of PS among bottle-fed infants was observed even after 30 days since first exposure to bottle-feeding and did not vary with age at first exposure to bottle-feeding. CONCLUSIONS: Bottle-fed infants experienced a 4.6-fold higher risk of PS compared with infants who were not bottle-fed. The result adds to the evidence supporting the advantage of exclusive breastfeeding in the first months after birth.