Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Small firm internet adoption: opportunities forgone, a journey not begun

This paper explores the endeavours of five small firms to develop web-based commerce capabilities within their existing operations. The focus is upon the strategic acquisition and exploitation of knowledge which underpins new value creating activates related to web-based commerce. A normative web-based commerce adoption model developed from a review of the extant literature related to electronic marketing, entrepreneurship, and the diffusion of new innovations was empirically tested. A multiple case study design enabled the exploration of contemporary marketing and entrepreneurship issues within the real life context of five small firms. The model aimed to emphasis best-practice adoption methods emphasizing the value of a firm's market orientation and entrepreneurial capabilities. A preliminary test of the model's theoretical contentions lent support to its overall focus, but found that the firm's existing learning capabilities were diminished during the adoption of web-based commerce, and that a lack of vision and prior knowledge produced sub-optimal adoption outcomes.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Passive vector turbulence

This thesis consists of three articles on passive vector fields in turbulence. The vector fields interact with a turbulent velocity field, which is described by the Kraichnan model. The effect of the Kraichnan model on the passive vectors is studied via an equation for the pair correlation function and its solutions. The first paper is concerned with the passive magnetohydrodynamic equations. Emphasis is placed on the so called "dynamo effect", which in the present context is understood as an unbounded growth of the pair correlation function. The exact analytical conditions for such growth are found in the cases of zero and infinite Prandtl numbers. The second paper contains an extensive study of a number of passive vector models. Emphasis is now on the properties of the (assumed) steady state, namely anomalous scaling, anisotropy and small and large scale behavior with different types of forcing or stirring. The third paper is in many ways a completion to the previous one in its study of the steady state existence problem. Conditions for the existence of the steady state are found in terms of the spatial roughness parameter of the turbulent velocity field.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Gust Response of Rotor and Propeller Systems

The influence of nonstationary turbulence on rotor and propeller systems is discussed. The review is made from a common analytical basis of nonstationary approach, with emphasis on concepts rather than on details. The necessity of such an approach and its feasibility for predicting a complete set of gust and response statistics together with correlations with somewhat limited test data are appraised.

Supramolecular gels `in action'

n recent years, self-assembly has emerged as a powerful tool for the construction of functional nanostructures. Myriad applications of these nanoscale architectures, especially the supramolecular gels derived from low molecular mass compounds, in fields such as optoelectronics, light harvesting, organic–inorganic hybrid materials, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine are being envisaged. This review attempts to present a succinct overview of the current state of research on functional nano-scale systems—the design, synthesis and applications of self-assembled nanomaterials engineered to carry out precise functions, with an emphasis on supramolecular gel phase materials.

Ignition delay studies on hydrocarbon fuel with and without additives

Single pulse shock tube facility has been developed in the High Temperature Chemical Kinetics Lab, Aerospace Engineering Department, to carry out ignition delay studies and spectroscopic investigations of hydrocarbon fuels. Our main emphasis is on measuring ignition delay through pressure rise and by monitoring CH emission for various jet fuels and finding suitable additives for reducing the delay. Initially the shock tube was tested and calibrated by measuring the ignition delay of C2H6-O2 mixture. The results are in good agreement with earlier published works. Ignition times of exo-tetrahdyrodicyclopentadiene (C10H16), which is a leading candidate fuel for scramjet propulsion has been studied in the reflected shock region in the temperature range 1250 - 1750 K with and without adding Triethylamine (TEA). Addition of TEA results in substantial reduction of ignition delay of C10H16.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Managing resistance to chemical treatments in stored products pests

This review focuses on key trends in resistance to chemical treatments in stored product pests, and advances in resistance management, with an emphasis on resistance to the fumigant phosphine. Findings: Phosphine resistance continues to be a major concern. In particular, phosphine resistance in Cryptolestes ferrugineus has emerged as a serious issue, with some populations exhibiting the strongest level detected so far for this fumigant. In response, a 'quick knock down test' has been established to deliver industry and scientists 'same day' advice on the resistance status of field samples; sulfuryl fluoride is being developed as a 'resistance breaker' and phosphine dosages are being revised to manage this problem. There has been major progress in identifying the genes responsible for phosphine resistance and the development of molecular resistance diagnostics for key pests. Several studies on Rhyzopertha dominica have demonstrated that molecular screening can be used to determine the frequency of resistance alleles in samples collected from farm storages. Despite on-going research in several pests, there is no definitive answer to the question of whether there is a fitness cost associated phosphine resistance, with some studies showing a clear cost and others none. Evidence continues to emerge of resistance to grain protectants, including the juvenile hormone analogue methoprene. The development and adoption of spinosad, as a next generation 'green' treatment, and the use of protectant combinations provides opportunities to counter the problem of protectant resistance.Directions for future research: A uniform set of protocols should be developed for phosphine resistance detection for all major species. It should combine 'quick tests' and molecular diagnostics to be adopted internationally. Research is required on the establishment of a decision making system that integrates newly developed grain protectants and fumigants, other alternative control methods, as well as an accurate and rapid resistance detection system for early warning of the emergence of new resistances.

The status of entrepreneurship education in Australian universities

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical overview of the current state of entrepreneurship education (EE) in Australia; placing emphasis on programs, curricula and entrepreneurship ecosystems. Design/methodology/approach The authors performed a contextual review of the literature by delineating entrepreneurship education programs, the entrepreneurial ecosystem and EE learning and teaching. The review was enhanced by a systematic collection of data from higher education institutions web sites, depicting the prevailing situation of entrepreneurship programs, courses, subjects and their ecosystems. Findings A number of interesting findings emerged from this study. From a curricular perspective, Australian universities offer 584 subjects related to entrepreneurship. This includes dominance at undergraduate level, representing 24 minors/majors and specializations in entrepreneurship. In total, 135 entrepreneurship ecosystems were identified. Research limitations/implications This paper presents findings from university web sites and as such requires introspection to validate individual university offerings. Practical implications The study provides the status of EE in Australia, and may guide academic and policy decision makers to further develop entrepreneurship initiatives. Originality/value This paper provides the first analytical overview of EE in Australia and paves the way for further evaluation.

A review of project evaluation methodologies to address net impacts and risks of toll road projects to the community

Project evaluation is a process of measuring costs, benefits, risks and uncertainties for the purpose of decision-making by estimating and assessing impacts of the project to the community. The effects of impacts of toll roads are similar but different from the general non-tolled roads. Project evaluation methodologies are extensively studied and applied to various transport infrastructure projects. However, there is no definitive methodology to evaluate toll roads. This review discusses the impacts of toll roads then reviews the limitations of existing project evaluation methodologies when evaluating toll road impacts. The review identified gaps of knowledge of toll evaluations. First, the treatment of toll in project evaluation, particularly in Cost-Benefit Analysis requires further study to explore the appropriate methodology. Secondly, the project evaluation methodology needs to place strong emphasis on empirically based risk and uncertainty assessment. Addressing the limitations of the existing project evaluation methodologies leads to improvements of the methodology in practical level as well as fills the gap of knowledge of project evaluation for toll roads with respect to net impacts to the community.

A review of project evaluation methodologies for toll road projects

Project evaluation is a process of measuring costs, benefits, risks and uncertainties for the purpose of decision-making by estimating and assessing impacts of the project to the community. The effects of impacts of toll roads are similar but different from the general non-tolled roads. Project evaluation methodologies are extensively studied and applied to various transport infrastructure projects. However, there is no definitive methodology to evaluate toll roads. This review discusses the impacts of toll roads then reviews the limitations of existing project evaluation methodologies when evaluating toll road impacts. The review identified gaps of knowledge of toll evaluations. First, the treatment of toll in project evaluation, particularly in Cost-Benefit Analysis requires further study to explore the appropriate methodology. Secondly, the project evaluation methodology needs to place strong emphasis on empirically based risk and uncertainty assessment. Addressing the limitations of the existing project evaluation methodologies leads to improvements of the methodology in practical level as well as fills the gap of knowledge of project evaluation for toll roads with respect to net impacts to the community.

Online learning an effective means for developing small business owner-managers’ capabilities?

Purpose If owner-managers engage in management development activities then chances of success may be improved for small businesses. But small business owner-managers (SBOMs) are a difficult group to engage in management development activities. While practitioners worry about timing, content and location of development activities, the purpose of this paper is to examine what drives SBOMs to participate in an online discussion forum (ODF) as a form of management development. An ODF was run with SBOMs and the factors affecting their participation are reported from this exploratory study. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative methodology was used where data gathered from three sources, the ODF posts, in-depth interviews with participants and a focus group with non-participants. These were analysed to evaluate factors affecting participation of SBOMs in an ODF. Findings The findings point to the importance of owner-managers’ attitudes. Attitudes that positively affected SBOMs participation in the ODF included; appreciating that learning leads to business success; positive self-efficacy developed through prior online experience; and an occupational identity as a business manager. Research limitations/implications Few SBOMs participated in the ODF, which is consistent with research finding that they are a difficult group to engage in management development learning activities. Three forms of data were analysed to strengthen results. Practical implications Caution should be exercised when considering investment in e-learning to develop the managerial capabilities of SBOMs. Originality/value Evidence of the factors important for participation in an informal voluntary ODF. The findings suggest greater emphasis should be placed on changing attitudes if SBOMs are to be encouraged to participate in management development activities.

Efficient search for statistically significant dependency rules in binary data

Analyzing statistical dependencies is a fundamental problem in all empirical science. Dependencies help us understand causes and effects, create new scientific theories, and invent cures to problems. Nowadays, large amounts of data is available, but efficient computational tools for analyzing the data are missing. In this research, we develop efficient algorithms for a commonly occurring search problem - searching for the statistically most significant dependency rules in binary data. We consider dependency rules of the form X->A or X->not A, where X is a set of positive-valued attributes and A is a single attribute. Such rules describe which factors either increase or decrease the probability of the consequent A. A classical example are genetic and environmental factors, which can either cause or prevent a disease. The emphasis in this research is that the discovered dependencies should be genuine - i.e. they should also hold in future data. This is an important distinction from the traditional association rules, which - in spite of their name and a similar appearance to dependency rules - do not necessarily represent statistical dependencies at all or represent only spurious connections, which occur by chance. Therefore, the principal objective is to search for the rules with statistical significance measures. Another important objective is to search for only non-redundant rules, which express the real causes of dependence, without any occasional extra factors. The extra factors do not add any new information on the dependence, but can only blur it and make it less accurate in future data. The problem is computationally very demanding, because the number of all possible rules increases exponentially with the number of attributes. In addition, neither the statistical dependency nor the statistical significance are monotonic properties, which means that the traditional pruning techniques do not work. As a solution, we first derive the mathematical basis for pruning the search space with any well-behaving statistical significance measures. The mathematical theory is complemented by a new algorithmic invention, which enables an efficient search without any heuristic restrictions. The resulting algorithm can be used to search for both positive and negative dependencies with any commonly used statistical measures, like Fisher's exact test, the chi-squared measure, mutual information, and z scores. According to our experiments, the algorithm is well-scalable, especially with Fisher's exact test. It can easily handle even the densest data sets with 10000-20000 attributes. Still, the results are globally optimal, which is a remarkable improvement over the existing solutions. In practice, this means that the user does not have to worry whether the dependencies hold in future data or if the data still contains better, but undiscovered dependencies.