Techno-Economic Assessment of LNG and Diesel Production and Global Trading Based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants and PtG, GtL and PtL Technologies

With growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid transportation fuels, and concerns about climate change and causes of greenhouse gas emissions, this master’s thesis introduces a new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective fundamental business cases based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are composed of renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-gas (PtG), gas-to-liquids (GtL) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel are drop-in fuels to the current energy system and can be traded everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG), hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL), GtL and LNG value chain are performed based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG produced in Patagonia, as the study case, is competitive with conventional LNG in Japan for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 87 - 145 USD/barrel (20 – 26 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and the proposed RE-diesel is competitive with conventional diesel in the European Union (EU) for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive with conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for many countries to satisfy their fuel demand locally. It is also a specific business case for countries with excellent solar and wind resources to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, when the decrease in production cost is considerably more than the shipping cost. This is a unique opportunity to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons are getting tighter.

Convex Optimization Algorithms and Statistical Bounds for Learning Structured Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The Impact of Light Rail Transit-Oriented Development on Residential Property Value in Seattle, WA

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Essays on market design and regulation in electricity systems

This thesis discusses market design and regulation in electricity systems, focusing on the information exchange of the regulated grid firm and the generation firms as well as the regulation of the grid firm. In the first chapter, an economic framework is developed to consistently analyze different market designs and the information exchange between the grid firm and the generation firms. Perfect competition between the generation firms and perfect regulation of the grid firm is assumed. A numerical algorithm is developed and its feasibility demonstrated on a large-scale problem. The effects of different market designs for the Central Western European (CWE) region until 2030 are analyzed. In the second chapter, the consequences of restricted grid expansion within the current market design in the CWE region until 2030 are analyzed. In the third chapter the assumption of efficient markets is modified. The focus of the analysis is then, whether and how inefficiencies in information availability and processing affect different market designs. For different parameter settings, nodal and zonal pricing are compared regarding their welfare in the spot and forward market. In the fourth chapter, information asymmetries between the regulator and the regulated firm are analyzed. The optimal regulatory strategy for a firm, providing one output with two substitutable inputs, is defined. Thereby, one input and the absolute quantity of inputs is not observable for the regulator. The result is then compared to current regulatory approaches.

The strategic role of design in supporting knowledge exchange

Within the last decade design has had a strategic role in tackling escalating environmental, social and economic problems. Through design thinking, creative methods have been applied to problem solving in a process of collaboration and designers working in new territories and knowledge domains. As the designer has moved further afield the method of Knowledge Exchange (KE) has become more recognised as a democratic approach to collaboration with the ethos that everyone has something creative and productive to offer. This paper provides reflections on early stage findings from a strategic design innovation process in which collaborative partnerships between academics, SMEs and designers emerged through KE and suggests that there is value to be had from using design strategically for not only those from a business or academic background but also for those from the design community and points to a need for more training for designers from all disciplines in how to use design strategically

Beyond the bottom line: redefining the value of design in SME formation

For SMEs to operate in the complex and globalised economic landscape of today engaging with innovation can sustain competitive advantage. Within Design Management, design is being increasingly posited as a strategic resource to facilitate the absorption of new design resources and leverage design knowledge in ways that support SMEs through such economic pressures. Evidencing the relationship between design and economic performance is complex, leading to extensive current research and industry efforts to show how design adds economic value. Despite the value of such efforts, it is important to recognise that innovation means different things to different organizations, especially for start-ups and SMEs. Within the rising tide of design-led innovation, there is a gap being explored in how design can effectively capture and evaluate its contribution within the complex and diverse situations of business development it engages. In seeking to address this gap, this paper presents findings from research undertaken within Design in Action (DiA), an AHRC-funded knowledge exchange hub. Presenting DiA as a single case study, the paper offers methodical reflection on five case example start-up businesses funded by DiA in order to explore the value that design-led innovation approaches offered in their formation.

Saúde hunana e ambiental: estudo com trabalhadores agricultores da ilha dos marinheiros

Este estudo apresenta uma relação entre o trabalho agrícola familiar e a saúde humana e ambiental em um cenário insular com características rurais, tendo-se como objetivo geral, analisar a sustentabilidade da relação socioambiental do trabalho de agricultores moradores da Ilha dos Marinheiros. Os objetivos específicos foram: Caracterizar a sustentabilidade do trabalho agrícola familiar na Ilha dos Marinheiros; Identificar como os trabalhadores agricultores da Ilha dos Marinheiros significam a sua saúde e atuam para mantê-la; Compreender como os trabalhadores agricultores identificam os impactos positivos e negativos do trabalho agrícola familiar desencadeados no ambiente e a conservação da saúde ambiental. Trata-se de uma pesquisa exploratória, descritiva, transversal com desenho de método misto com estruturação [QUAL + quan]. Foi realizada na Ilha dos Marinheiros, Rio Grande, Brasil, com 129 trabalhadores agricultores entre março a outubro de 2013, utilizando-se entrevista com aplicação individual de um questionário semiestruturado, gravado, previamente elaborado e testado. Também foram utilizados dados secundários referentes à constituição geográfica, cultural e econômica da Ilha. A organização dos dados qualitativos ocorreu a partir da transcrição dos dados oriundos das entrevistas no Microsoft Word, seguido da Análise de Conteúdo por temas com auxílio do Software Nvivo10. Para ambos os processos de análise utilizou-se o apoio teórico na racionalidade cultural de Enrique Leff. A organização dos dados quantitativos se fez pela codificação dos dados e digitação no software Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, 21.0, seguido da análise estatística descritiva e Teste Qui-quadrado de Pearson, com o p-valor <0,05 como significância estatística. Foram asseguradas as exigências éticas e científicas preconizadas nas pesquisas com seres humanos, mediante Resolução 466/2012 e aprovação do macroprojeto pelo Comitê de Ética da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande sob parecer 026/2013. Teve-se 78 trabalhadores agricultores do sexo masculino com idade média de (55,33±14,27), e 51 do sexo feminino, com idade média de (54,68±11,08). Predominou a descendência portuguesa 106 (84,8%), a maioria 100 (77,52%) com ensino fundamental incompleto, média de 2,53 integrantes no domicílio e renda familiar média de (1.648,39±947,72) para uma média de 2,58 dependentes desta. Os participantes atuavam em média há 40,56 anos, por (8,51± 3,10) horas diárias de trabalho em suas propriedades com média de 12,49 hectares. A atividade que mais exerciam e que eram mais auxiliados foi colher os produtos agrícolas, predominando o sexo masculino nesta função. O desenvolvimento do trabalho era conduzido mais pelos homens e de forma diária 83 (64,34%), seguido dos filhos 33 (25,58%) também diariamente 24 (18,60%). Quanto à saúde humana, esta foi concebida como boa, regular e ruim, com ações que convergem à continuidade do exercício laboral e adesão aos serviços de saúde mínima anualmente. Já os impactos positivos do trabalho no ambiente incidiram na conservação do trabalho como uma riqueza, o que exige atenção quanto ao uso dos agrotóxicos frente aos impactos negativos desencadeados ao ambiente em uma perspectiva sustentável à vida humana e não humana. O estudo fornece subsídios 6 contributivos à prática argumentativa do Enfermeiro à saúde ocupacional na agricultura familiar sob uma perspectiva sustentável ao ambiente.

Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental evaluation of concentrated solar power plants in Libya

The PhD project addresses the potential of using concentrating solar power (CSP) plants as a viable alternative energy producing system in Libya. Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental analyses are carried out for a particular type of CSP plants. The study, although it aims a particular type of CSP plant – 50 MW parabolic trough-CSP plant, it is sufficiently general to be applied to other configurations. The novelty of the study, in addition to modeling and analyzing the selected configuration, lies in the use of a state-of-the-art exergetic analysis combined with the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The modeling and simulation of the plant is carried out in chapter three and they are conducted into two parts, namely: power cycle and solar field. The computer model developed for the analysis of the plant is based on algebraic equations describing the power cycle and the solar field. The model was solved using the Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software; and is designed to define the properties at each state point of the plant and then, sequentially, to determine energy, efficiency and irreversibility for each component. The developed model has the potential of using in the preliminary design of CSPs and, in particular, for the configuration of the solar field based on existing commercial plants. Moreover, it has the ability of analyzing the energetic, economic and environmental feasibility of using CSPs in different regions of the world, which is illustrated for the Libyan region in this study. The overall feasibility scenario is completed through an hourly analysis on an annual basis in chapter Four. This analysis allows the comparison of different systems and, eventually, a particular selection, and it includes both the economic and energetic components using the “greenius” software. The analysis also examined the impact of project financing and incentives on the cost of energy. The main technological finding of this analysis is higher performance and lower levelized cost of electricity (LCE) for Libya as compared to Southern Europe (Spain). Therefore, Libya has the potential of becoming attractive for the establishment of CSPs in its territory and, in this way, to facilitate the target of several European initiatives that aim to import electricity generated by renewable sources from North African and Middle East countries. The analysis is presented a brief review of the current cost of energy and the potential of reducing the cost from parabolic trough- CSP plant. Exergetic and environmental life cycle assessment analyses are conducted for the selected plant in chapter Five; the objectives are 1) to assess the environmental impact and cost, in terms of exergy of the life cycle of the plant; 2) to find out the points of weakness in terms of irreversibility of the process; and 3) to verify whether solar power plants can reduce environmental impact and the cost of electricity generation by comparing them with fossil fuel plants, in particular, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant and oil thermal power plant. The analysis also targets a thermoeconomic analysis using the specific exergy costing (SPECO) method to evaluate the level of the cost caused by exergy destruction. The main technological findings are that the most important contribution impact lies with the solar field, which reports a value of 79%; and the materials with the vi highest impact are: steel (47%), molten salt (25%) and synthetic oil (21%). The “Human Health” damage category presents the highest impact (69%) followed by the “Resource” damage category (24%). In addition, the highest exergy demand is linked to the steel (47%); and there is a considerable exergetic demand related to the molten salt and synthetic oil with values of 25% and 19%, respectively. Finally, in the comparison with fossil fuel power plants (NGCC and Oil), the CSP plant presents the lowest environmental impact, while the worst environmental performance is reported to the oil power plant followed by NGCC plant. The solar field presents the largest value of cost rate, where the boiler is a component with the highest cost rate among the power cycle components. The thermal storage allows the CSP plants to overcome solar irradiation transients, to respond to electricity demand independent of weather conditions, and to extend electricity production beyond the availability of daylight. Numerical analysis of the thermal transient response of a thermocline storage tank is carried out for the charging phase. The system of equations describing the numerical model is solved by using time-implicit and space-backward finite differences and which encoded within the Matlab environment. The analysis presented the following findings: the predictions agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region, particularly for the regions away from the top-inlet. The deviations observed in the near-region of the inlet are most likely due to the high-level of turbulence in this region due to the localized level of mixing resulting; a simple analytical model to take into consideration this increased turbulence level was developed and it leads to some improvement of the predictions; this approach requires practically no additional computational effort and it relates the effective thermal diffusivity to the mean effective velocity of the fluid at each particular height of the system. Altogether the study indicates that the selected parabolic trough-CSP plant has the edge over alternative competing technologies for locations where DNI is high and where land usage is not an issue, such as the shoreline of Libya.

PICTOAPRENDE: Design and evaluation of a tool that contributes to the personal autonomy of children and youth diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder in Ecuador

This paper presents the development and evaluation of PICTOAPRENDE, which is an interactive software designed to improve oral communication. Additionally, it contributes to the development of children and youth who are diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in Ecuador. To fulfill this purpose initially analyzes the intervention area where the general characteristics of people with ASD and their status in Ecuador is described. Statistical techniques used for this evaluation constitutes the basis of this study. A section that presents the development of research-based cognitive and social parameters of the area of intervention is also shown. Finally, the algorithms to obtain the measurements and experimental results along with the analysis of them are presented.

Design of experiments to optimized the determination of TDIs in agglomerated cork stoppers

Isocyanates are included into a class with an extreme commercial importance because their use in the manufacture of polyurethanes. Polyurethanes are used in several applications such as adhesives, coatings, foams, thermoplastics resins, printing inks, foundry moulds and rubbers. Agglomerated cork stoppers are currently used for still wines, semi-sparkle and gaseous wines, beer and cider. Methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) is presently the isocyanate used in the production of polyurethane based adhesive in use due to its lowest toxicity comparing with toluene diisocyanate (TDI) previously employed. However, free monomeric TDI or MDI, depending on the based polyurethane, can migrate from agglomerated cork stoppers to beverages therefore it needs to be under control. The presence of these compounds are usually investigated by HPLC with Fluorescence or UV-Vis detector depending on the derivatising agent. Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography with Diode Array Detector (UPLC-DAD) method is replacing HPLC. The objective of this study is to determine which method is better to analyze isocyanates from agglomerated cork stoppers, essentially TDI to quantify its monomer. A Design of Experiments (DOE) with three factors, column temperature, flow and solvent, at two levels was done. Eight experiments with three replications and two repetitions were developed. Through an ANOVA the significance of the factors was evaluated and the best level’s factors were selected. As the TDI has two isomers and in this method these two isomers were not always separated an ANOVA with results of resolution between peaks was performed. The Design of Experiments reveals to be a suitable statistical tool to determine the best conditions to quantified free isocyanates from agglomerated cork stoppers to real foodstuff. The best level’s factors to maximize area was column temperature at 30ºC, flow to 0,3 mL/min and solvent 0,1% Ammonium Acetate, to maximize resolution was the same except the solvent that was 0,01% Ammonium Acetate.

Low-power high-performance SAR ADC design with digital calibration techniques

This dissertation presents the design of three high-performance successive-approximation-register (SAR) analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) using distinct digital background calibration techniques under the framework of a generalized code-domain linear equalizer. These digital calibration techniques effectively and efficiently remove the static mismatch errors in the analog-to-digital (A/D) conversion. They enable aggressive scaling of the capacitive digital-to-analog converter (DAC), which also serves as sampling capacitor, to the kT/C limit. As a result, outstanding conversion linearity, high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), high conversion speed, robustness, superb energy efficiency, and minimal chip-area are accomplished simultaneously. The first design is a 12-bit 22.5/45-MS/s SAR ADC in 0.13-μm CMOS process. It employs a perturbation-based calibration based on the superposition property of linear systems to digitally correct the capacitor mismatch error in the weighted DAC. With 3.0-mW power dissipation at a 1.2-V power supply and a 22.5-MS/s sample rate, it achieves a 71.1-dB signal-to-noise-plus-distortion ratio (SNDR), and a 94.6-dB spurious free dynamic range (SFDR). At Nyquist frequency, the conversion figure of merit (FoM) is 50.8 fJ/conversion step, the best FoM up to date (2010) for 12-bit ADCs. The SAR ADC core occupies 0.06 mm2, while the estimated area the calibration circuits is 0.03 mm2. The second proposed digital calibration technique is a bit-wise-correlation-based digital calibration. It utilizes the statistical independence of an injected pseudo-random signal and the input signal to correct the DAC mismatch in SAR ADCs. This idea is experimentally verified in a 12-bit 37-MS/s SAR ADC fabricated in 65-nm CMOS implemented by Pingli Huang. This prototype chip achieves a 70.23-dB peak SNDR and an 81.02-dB peak SFDR, while occupying 0.12-mm2 silicon area and dissipating 9.14 mW from a 1.2-V supply with the synthesized digital calibration circuits included. The third work is an 8-bit, 600-MS/s, 10-way time-interleaved SAR ADC array fabricated in 0.13-μm CMOS process. This work employs an adaptive digital equalization approach to calibrate both intra-channel nonlinearities and inter-channel mismatch errors. The prototype chip achieves 47.4-dB SNDR, 63.6-dB SFDR, less than 0.30-LSB differential nonlinearity (DNL), and less than 0.23-LSB integral nonlinearity (INL). The ADC array occupies an active area of 1.35 mm2 and dissipates 30.3 mW, including synthesized digital calibration circuits and an on-chip dual-loop delay-locked loop (DLL) for clock generation and synchronization.

Creating and measuring customer value in digital businesses

Most economic transactions nowadays are due to the effective exchange of information in which digital resources play a huge role. New actors are coming into existence all the time, so organizations are facing difficulties in keeping their current customers and attracting new customer segments and markets. Companies are trying to find the key to their success and creating superior customer value seems to be one solution. Digital technologies can be used to deliver value to customers in ways that extend customers’ normal conscious experiences in the context of time and space. By creating customer value, companies can gain the increased loyalty of existing customers and better ways to serve new customers effectively. Based on these assumptions, the objective of this study was to design a framework to enable organizations to create customer value in digital business. The research was carried out as a literature review and an empirical study, which consisted of a web-based survey and semi-structured interviews. The data from the empirical study was analyzed as mixed research with qualitative and quantitative methods. These methods were used since the object of the study was to gain deeper understanding about an existing phenomena. Therefore, the study used statistical procedures and value creation is described as a phenomenon. The framework was designed first based on the literature and updated based on the findings from the empirical study. As a result, relationship, understanding the customer, focusing on the core product or service, the product or service quality, incremental innovations, service range, corporate identity, and networks were chosen as the top elements of customer value creation. Measures for these elements were identified. With the measures, companies can manage the elements in value creation when dealing with present and future customers and also manage the operations of the company. In conclusion, creating customer value requires understanding the customer and a lot of information sharing, which can be eased by digital resources. Understanding the customer helps to produce products and services that fulfill customers’ needs and desires. This could result in increased sales and make it easier to establish efficient processes.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Essays on robust mechanism design

Chapter 1: Under the average common value function, we select almost uniquely the mechanism that gives the seller the largest portion of the true value in the worst situation among all the direct mechanisms that are feasible, ex-post implementable and individually rational. Chapter 2: Strategy-proof, budget balanced, anonymous, envy-free linear mechanisms assign p identical objects to n agents. The efficiency loss is the largest ratio of surplus loss to efficient surplus, over all profiles of non-negative valuations. The smallest efficiency loss is uniquely achieved by the following simple allocation rule: assigns one object to each of the p−1 agents with the highest valuation, a large probability to the agent with the pth highest valuation, and the remaining probability to the agent with the (p+1)th highest valuation. When “envy freeness” is replaced by the weaker condition “voluntary participation”, the optimal mechanism differs only when p is much less than n. Chapter 3: One group is to be selected among a set of agents. Agents have preferences over the size of the group if they are selected; and preferences over size as well as the “stand-outside” option are single-peaked. We take a mechanism design approach and search for group selection mechanisms that are efficient, strategy-proof and individually rational. Two classes of such mechanisms are presented. The proposing mechanism allows agents to either maintain or shrink the group size following a fixed priority, and is characterized by group strategy-proofness. The voting mechanism enlarges the group size in each voting round, and achieves at least half of the maximum group size compatible with individual rationality.

Restoration ecology of coastal lagoons: new methods for the prediction of ecological trajectories and economic valuation

Conservation of the seven lagoons of the Palavas complex (southern France) has been severely impaired by nutrient over-enrichment during at least four decades. The effluents of the Montpellier wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) represented the main nutrient input. To improve the water quality of these lagoons, this WWTP was renovated and upgraded and, since the end of 2005, its effluents have been discharged 11 km offshore into the Mediterranean (total investment €150 M). Possibilities of ecosystem restoration as part of a conservation programme were explored by a focus group of experts. Their tasks were: (i) to evaluate the impact of the reduction of the nutrient input; (ii) if necessary, to design additional measures for an active restoration programme; and (iii) to predict ecosystem trajectories for the different cases. Extension of Magnoliophyta meadows can be taken as a proxy for ecosystem restoration as they favour the increase of several fish (seahorse) and bird (ducks, swans, herons) species, albeit they represent a trade-off for greater flamingos. Additional measures for active ecosystem restoration were only recommended for the most impaired lagoon Méjean, while the least impaired lagoon Ingril is already on a trajectory of spontaneous recovery. A multiple contingent valuation considering four different management options for the Méjean lagoon was used in a pilot study based on face-to-face interviews with 159 respondents. Three levels of ecosystem restoration were expressed in terms of recovery of Magnoliophyta meadows, including their impact on emblematic fish and avifauna. These were combined with different options for access (status quo, increasing access, increasing access with measures to reduce disturbance). The results show a willingness of local populations to pay per year about €25 for the highest level of ecological restoration, while they were only willing to allocate about €5 for additional footpaths and hides.