The Sustainable Debts of Philip II: A Reconstruction of Spain's Fiscal Position, 1560-1598

The defaults of Philip II have attained mythical status as the origin of sovereign debt crises. Four times during his reign the king failed to honor his debts and had to renegotiate borrowing contracts. In this paper, we reassess the fiscal position of Habsburg Spain. New archival evidence allows us to derive comprehensive estimates of debt and revenue. These show that primary surpluses were sufficient to make the king's debt sustainable in most scenarios. Spain's debt burden was manageable up to the 1580s, and its fiscal position only deteriorated for good after the defeat of the "Invincible Armada." We also estimate fiscal policy reaction functions, and show that Spain under the Habsburgs was at least as "responsible" as the US in the 20th century or as Britain in the 18th century. Our results suggest that the outcome of uncertain events such as wars may influence on a history of default more than strict adherence to fiscal rules.

Report of Recommendation to the Iowa Department of Economic Development, June 30, 2005

State Audit Reports

Economic Booms, Trade Deficits, and Economic Policy

Many economic booms have been accompanied by real exchange rate appreciations, large trade defcits -which have sometimes persisted after the return to the initial exchange rate parity- and a deteriorating traded sector. Those circumstances have typically raised the question of the de-sirability of some stabilization policy. We show that the dynamics induced by an expected productivity shock in an economy where the capital stock is non-mobile across sectors, match those circumstances. Furthermore, we obtain that credit market imperfections tend to exacerbate trade deficits, and to cause an inefficient capacity reduction in the traded sector. Some stabilization policies are explored.

Trade, Extent of the Market, and Economic Growth 1960-1996

We find that trade and domestic market size are robust determinants of economic growth over the 1960-1996 period when trade openness is measured as the US dollar value of imports and exports relative to GDP in PPP US$ ('real openness'). When trade openness is measured as the US dollar value of imports and exports relative to GDP in exchange rate US$ ('nominal openness') however, trade and the size of domestic markets are often non-robust determinants of growth. We argue that real openness is the more appropriate measure of trade and that our empirical results should be seen as evidence in favor of the extent-of-the-market hypothesis.

China´s Economic Security Police Towards ASEAN From

After the economic reforms of 1978, China started rising very fast and started engaging other countries in the region which has served to increase its confidence in the region. In the post cold war period, China was seen as a big threat for the region because of its claims on the South China Sea. Nevertheless, this image was eliminated when China engaged ASEAN and other multilateral and regional organizations. This paper is studying China’s economic and security policies towards ASEAN. Globalization Theory is the theory being used to explain the nature of China-ASEAN relations. This research paper argues that China’s rise is promoting peace in the region. With the engagement policy, China started promoting trade and security co operations based on mutual benefits and dialogues for the peaceful resolutions of the disputes in the region. This contributed greatly to improve China’s image in the region. Additionally, China’s posture during the economic crises of 1997 also greatly contributed to improve its image. Thus, the rise of China is providing opportunity to the other countries in East Asia. Chapter One: Background On China-ASEAN Relations The use of Soft Power and engagement policy by the Chinese government has helped to change China’s image in the region. By using these policies China has been able to clear the feeling of suspicion and mistrust among the Asian states. China has increased its participation in multilateral and regional organizations, such as ASEAN. Due to this China has been able to promote economic and security co-operation among countries in the region. Thus, from being a potential threat China became a potential co-operative partner. Chapter Two: A Look into ASEAN ASEAN was originally formed on 8th August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Nevertheless, ASEAN was not the first regional group created to act as forum for dialogue between the leaders of different countries. Thought, it is the only one which could work in the region. The aim of the foundation of ASEAN was to promote peace and stability in the Abstract 2 region and also contain the spread of communism in Southeast Asia. For this reason, China did not engage ASEAN until 1990. However, in 1978 with the establishment of the open up policy China started engaging other countries. It started building trust among its neighboring countries by using soft power. By 1992, China formalized its diplomatic ties with ASEAN as a group. The diplomatic ties between China and ASEAN focus on multilateralism and co-operation as the best way for a more peaceful Asia and the search for common security. Thus, security in the region is promoted through economic co-operation among the states. Therefore the relation between China – ASEAN emphasizes the five principles of peaceful coexistence, mutual benefits in economic co-operation, dialogue promoting trust and the peaceful settlement of disputes. Chapter Three: China-ASEAN Economic Relations Since 1978 The economic reform of 1978 has greatly contributed to the economic development of China. After the adoption of the open up policy, China has been able to establish economic and trade relations with the outside world. The realist school of thought had predicted that Asia will not be stable in the post cold war period. Nevertheless, this has not been the case in Asia. China is growing peacefully with the co-operation of countries in the region. China is establishing strong ties with its neighboring countries. China and ASEAN relations focus on mutual benefit instead of being a zero sum game. Thus these relations are aimed at encouraging trust and economic co-operation in the region. China and ASEAN have agreed on Free Trade to assure that the two parties benefit from the co-operation. The ACFTA will have a great impact on economic, political and security issues. This will enable China to increase its influence in Asia and counterbalance the influences that Japan and U.S have in the region. Chapter Four: China ASEAN Relations in the Security Perspective This Chapter is about China and ASEAN relations on security issue. The new security issues of the post cold war period need to be solved in multilateral way. China as a major power in the region, through its engagement policy has solved most Abstract 3 of the disputes in the region using multilateral means. China has also found ways to solve the dispute over Spratly Islands peacefully, through dialogue using ASEAN. Additionally, China signed the Treaty of Amity in 2003, promoted security initiatives through ARF, Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and documents covering non-traditional security threats, economic co-operation and agricultural co-operation in November 2002, and the Joint Declaration on Strategic. Chapter Five: Finding and Analysis This chapter provides a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the date collected throughout this research. It provides an analysis of how the rise of China is promoting peace in the region. China has been promoting mutual beneficial trade and security co-operation which has increased its influence in the region. China has also been able to solve most of the territorial and border dispute in the region through ASEAN. Thus, ASEAN has amended China’s relations with other countries in the region. Therefore, China’s foreign policy in the region has a big impact in shaping the dynamic relations in East Asia. Conclusion and Recommendations This paper concluded that the relationships between China and ASEAN are contributing to peace in the region. After China engaged ASEAN, it has been able to promote multilateral trade based on mutual benefit. This is clearly emphasized by the CAFTA. Additionally, China has solved most of the dispute in the region. It has also found way for a peaceful resolution of the dispute over Spratly Island. Nowadays, the ASEAN countries don’t see China as a threat to the region. Nevertheless, they’ve adopted deterrence measures such as establishing diplomatic relations with other big powers in the region to assure that the region continues to grow peacefully. Concerning this deterrence measures, I recommend as another way for a continued peaceful growth, the resolution of the outstanding dispute.

Gestão dos recursos hídricos no processo de desenvolvimento sustentável de Cabo Verde: uma proposta

A água é vital para a sobrevivência, saúde e dignidade do ser humano e uma fonte fundamental para o seu desenvolvimento. As reservas de água potável no mundo estão sob pressão constante embora muitos ainda não tenham acesso a esse precioso líquido para atender ás necessidades básicas. A água é um recurso natural com valor económico, estratégico e social. A percepção da escassez tem levado governos, a reorganizar o ambiente institucional e definir novos direitos de propriedade por meio de um sistema de gestão participativo e descentralizado que estimule a utilização do recurso de forma racional. A investigação está direccionada à gestão e à implementação da Lei n.º 41/II/84 de 18 de Junho, que Aprova o Código de Águas que estabelece as bases gerais do regime jurídico de propriedade, protecção, conservação, desenvolvimento, administração e uso dos recursos. O enfoque da pesquisa é as Instituições Governamentais que lidam com a água e as Associações de Bacias hidrográficas que, com os seus olhares e saberes, contribuem com informações para que se construa uma Proposta de Modelo de Gestão numa perspectiva de sustentabilidade. A proposta de modelo pretende contribuir para uma gestão sustentada. A pesquisa é do tipo qualitativa e usa como metodologia o Estudo de Caso. Foi constatada a complexidade da gestão das águas em Cabo Verde, na qual existem ainda muitos entraves e desafios. A Bacia Hidrográfica é a unidade básica de gestão, onde as Associações, as Câmaras Municipais, os Serviços Autónomos de Água e Saneamento, o Instituto Nacional de Gestão dos recursos Hidricos desempenham o papel de gerí-la e preservá-la. Foram identificados como dificuldades: a posse da água não está bem clara, o que dificulta a gestão da Bacia; os conflitos sociais são frequentes quanto ao uso da água no que tange à poluição; a população rural não está devidamente contemplada na gestão dos recursos hídricos. Por fim, constatou-se que Cabo Verde possui as ferramentas para a evolução da Gestão dos Recursos Hídricos, que é o Código de Água. Water is vital for the survival, health and dignity of the human being and a basic source for development. The drinking waters reserves in the world are under constant pressure. The water can be considered a natural resource with economic, strategically and social values. The perception of the scarcity has taken governments, to reorganize the institutional environment and to define new rights of property by means of participation and decentralized system of management that stimulates the use of the resource in rational form. This investigation addressed the Administration of Water Resources in Cabo Verde and the implementation of Law n.º 41/II/84 of 18 of June, which established the National Policy of Water Resources and the National System of Management. The approach of the research is the Governmental Institutions that deal with the water and the Associations that, at a glance, contribute with information that builds the proposal of water resources management in a sustainability perspective. The proposal has as objective to provide subsidies to advance more and more the research regarding sustainability in the administration of waters. The research was qualitative and it used as methodology the Study Case. We identified as difficulties: the ownership of the water is not well clear; the social conflicts are frequent concerning how to use the water. Finally, it was evidenced that Cape Verde has the tools for the evolution of water resources management, which is the Water Code.

Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may, for example, lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following negative rainfall shocks when conflict is most probable following years with exceptionally high rainfall levels.

STRATEGIES TO SURPASS THE VULNERABILITY OF THE SMALL ISLAND STATES WITH FEW RESOURCES: THE CASE OF CAPE VERDE

The problem of small Island Developing States (SIDS) is quite recent, end of the 80s and 90s, still looking for a theoretical consolidation. SIDS, as small states in development, formed by one or several islands geographically dispersed, present reduced population, market, territory, natural resources, including drinkable water, and, in great number of the cases, low level of economic activity, factors that together, hinder the gathering of scale economies. To these diseconomies they come to join the more elevated costs in transports and communications which, allies to lower productivities, to a smaller quality and diversification of its productions, which difficult its integration in the world economy. In some SIDS these factors are not dissociating of the few investments in infrastructures, in the formation of human resources and in productive investments, just as it happens in most of the developing countries. In ecological terms, many of them with shortage of natural resources, but integrating important ecosystems in national and world terms, but with great fragility relatively to the pollution action, of excessive fishing, of uncontrolled development of tourism, factors that, conjugated and associated to the stove effect, condition the climate and the slope of the medium level of the sea water and therefore could put in cause the own survival of some of them. The drive to the awareness of the international community towards its problems summed up with the accomplishment by the United Nations in the Barbados’s Conference, 1994 where the right to the development was emphasized, through the going up the appropriate strategies and the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of the SIDS. The orientation of the regional and international cooperation in that sense, sharing technology (namely clean technology and control and administration environmental technology), information and creation of capacity-building, supplying means, including financial resources, creating non discriminatory and just trade rules, it would drive to the establishment of a world system economically more equal, in which the production, the consumption, the pollution levels, the demographic politics were guided towards the sustainability. It constituted an important step for the recognition for the international community on the specificities of those states and it allowed the definition of a group of norms and politics to implement at the national, regional and international level and it was important that they continued in the sense of the sustainable development. But this Conference had in its origin previous summits: the Summit of Rio de Janeiro about Environment and Development, accomplished in 1992, which left an important document - the Agenda 21, in the Conference of Stockholm at 1972 and even in the Conference of Ramsar, 1971 about “Wetlands.” CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS Occasional Papers © CEA - Centro de Estudos Africanos 4 Later, the Valletta Declaration, Malta, 1998, the Forum of Small States, 2002, get the international community's attention for the problems of SIDS again, in the sense that they act to increase its resilience. If the definition of “vulnerability” was the inability of the countries to resist economical, ecological and socially to the external shocks and “resilience” as the potential for them to absorb and minimize the impact of those shocks, presenting a structure that allows them to be little affected by them, a part of the available studies, dated of the 90s, indicate that the SIDS are more vulnerable than the other developing countries. The vulnerability of SIDS results from the fact the they present an assemblage of characteristics that turns them less capable of resisting or they advance strategies that allow a larger resilience to the external shocks, either anthropogenic (economical, financial, environmental) or even natural, connected with the vicissitudes of the nature. If these vulnerability factors were grouped with the expansion of the economic capitalist system at world level, the economic and financial globalisation, the incessant search of growing profits on the part of the multinational enterprises, the technological accelerated evolution drives to a situation of disfavour of the more poor. The creation of the resilience to the external shocks, to the process of globalisation, demands from SIDS and of many other developing countries the endogen definition of strategies and solid but flexible programs of integrated development. These must be assumed by the instituted power, but also by the other stakeholders, including companies and organizations of the civil society and for the population in general. But that demands strong investment in the formation of human resources, in infrastructures, in investigation centres; it demands the creation capacity not only to produce, but also to produce differently and do international marketing. It demands institutional capacity. Cape Verde is on its way to this stage.

Iowa Department of Economic Development, Agency Performance Plan, 2007

Annual Report, Agency Performance Plan

Economic Aspects of Agricultural and Food Biosecurity in the United States, March 2007

Concerns about biosecurity in the food system raise a variety of issues about how the system is presently organized, why it might be vulnerable, what one could reasonably do to better secure it, and the costs of doing so. After presenting some facts about US agriculture and food, this paper considers three economic aspects of the general problem. One is the global problem, or the way biosecurity measures can affect how countries relate to each other and the global consequences that result. Another is how to best manage the immediate aftermath of a realized threat in order to minimize damage. The third is how to seek to prevent realization of the threat. Some policy alternatives are also presented.

Audit report on the Iowa Department of Economic Development for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Iowa Department of Economic Development for the year ended June 30, 2006

The role of moral values in the economic analysis of crime: A general equilibrium approach

In this paper, we develop a general equilibrium model of crime and show thatlaw enforcement has different roles depending on the equilibrium characterization and the value of social norms. When an economy has a unique stable equilibrium where a fraction of the population is productive and the remaining predates, the government can choose an optimal law enforcement policy to maximize a welfare function evaluated at the steady state. If such steady state is not unique, law enforcement is still relevant but in a completely different way because the steady state that prevails depends on the initial proportions of productive and predator individuals in the economy. The relative importance of these proportions can be changed through law enforcement policy.

The capital gains from trade are not enough: Evidence from the environmental accounts of Venezuela and Mexico

In principle, a country can not endure negative genuine savings for longperiods of time without experiencing declining consumption. Nevertheless,theoreticians envisage two alternatives to explain how an exporter ofnon-renewable natural resources could experience permanent negativegenuine savings and still ensure sustainability. The first one allegesthat the capital gains arising from the expected improvement in theterms of trade would suffice to compensate for the negative savings ofthe resource exporter. The second alternative points at technologicalchange as a way to avoid economic collapse. This paper uses the dataof Venezuela and Mexico to empirically test the first of these twohypotheses. The results presented here prove that the terms oftrade do not suffice to compensate the depletion of oil reservesin these two open economies.

Entrepreneurship, organization and economic performance among Spanish firms, 1930-1975. The case of the motor industry

Before the Civil War (1936-1939), Spain had seen the emergence offirms of complex organizational forms. However, the conflict andthe postwar years changed this pattern. The argument put forwardin this paper is based on historical experience, the efforts willbe addressed to explain the development of Spanish entrepreneurshipduring the second half of the twentieth century. To illustrate thechange in entrepreneurship and organizational patterns among theSpanish firms during the Francoist regime we will turn to the caseof the motor vehicle industry.