Elevation Models of Antarctica and Greenland derived from CryoSat-2 in the period 2011 to 2013

This study focuses on the present-day surface elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Based on 3 years of CryoSat-2 data acquisition we derived new elevation models (DEMs) as well as elevation change maps and volume change estimates for both ice sheets. Here we present the new DEMs and their corresponding error maps. The accuracy of the derived DEMs for Greenland and Antarctica is similar to those of previous DEMs obtained by satellite-based laser and radar altimeters. Comparisons with ICESat data show that 80% of the CryoSat-2 DEMs have an uncertainty of less than 3 m ± 15 m. The surface elevation change rates between January 2011 and January 2014 are presented for both ice sheets. We compared our results to elevation change rates obtained from ICESat data covering the time period from 2003 to 2009. The comparison reveals that in West Antarctica the volume loss has increased by a factor of 3. It also shows an anomalous thickening in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica which represents a known large-scale accumulation event. This anomaly partly compensates for the observed increased volume loss of the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. For Greenland we find a volume loss increased by a factor of 2.5 compared to the ICESat period with large negative elevation changes concentrated at the west and southeast coasts. The combined volume change of Greenland and Antarctica for the observation period is estimated to be -503 ± 107 km**3/yr. Greenland contributes nearly 75% to the total volume change with -375 ± 24 km**3/yr.

DISPRO datasets for validation of coastal hydrodynamic models

Appropriate field data are required to check the reliability of hydrodynamic models simulating the dispersion of soluble substances in the marine environment. This study deals with the collection of physical measurements and soluble tracer data intended specifically for this kind of validation. The intensity of currents as well as the complexity of topography and tides around the Cap de La Hague in the center of the English Channel makes it one of the most difficult areas to represent in terms of hydrodynamics and dispersion. Controlled releases of tritium - in the form of HTO - are carried out in this area by the AREVA-NC plant, providing an excellent soluble tracer. A total of 14 493 measurements were acquired to track dispersion in the hours and days following a release. These data, supplementing previously gathered data and physical measurements (bathymetry, water-surface levels, Eulerian and Lagrangian current studies) allow us to test dispersion models from the hour following release to periods of several years which are not accessible with dye experiments. The dispersion characteristics are described and methods are proposed for comparing models against measurements. An application is proposed for a 2 dimensions high-resolution numerical model. It shows how an extensive dataset can be used to build, calibrate and validate several aspects of the model in a highly dynamic and macrotidal area: tidal cycle timing, tidal amplitude, fixed-point current data, hodographs. This study presents results concerning the model's ability to reproduce residual Lagrangian currents, along with a comparison between simulation and high-frequency measurements of tracer dispersion. Physical and tracer data are available from the SISMER database of IFREMER (www.ifremer.fr/sismer/catal). This tool for validation of models in macro-tidal seas is intended to be an open and evolving resource, which could provide a benchmark for dispersion model validation.

Age models of upper Pliocene samples of the North Atlantic

Abundance variations of six Pliocene species of discoasters have been analyzed over the time interval from 1.89 to 2.95 Ma at five contrasting sites in the North Atlantic: Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 552 (56°N) and 607 (41°N) and Ocean Drilling Program 658 (20°N), 659 (18°N), and 662 (1°S). A sampling interval equivalent to approximately 3 k.y. was used. Total Discoaster abundance showed a reduction with increasing latitude and from the effects of upwelling. This phenomenon is most obvious in Discoaster brouweri, the only species that survived over the entire time interval studied. Prior to 2.38 Ma, Discoaster pentaradiatus and Discoaster surculus are important components of the Discoaster assemblage: Discoaster pentaradiatus increases slightly with latitude up to 41°N, and its abundance relative to D. brouweri increases up to 56°N; D. surculus increases in abundance with latitude and with upwelling conditions relative to both D. brouweri and D. pentaradiatus and is dominant to the latter species at upwelling Site 658 and at the highest latitude sites. Discoaster asymmetricus and Discoaster tamalis appear to increase in abundance with latitude relative to D. brouweri. Many of the abundance changes observed appear to be connected with the initiation of glaciation in the North Atlantic at 2.4 Ma. The long-term trend of decreasing Discoaster abundance probably reflects the fall of sea-surface temperatures. This trend of cooling is overprinted by short-term variations that are probably associated with orbital forcing. Evidence for the astronomical elements of eccentricity and obliquity periodicities were found at all sites; however, only at Sites 607, 659, and 662 were precessional periodicities detected. Furthermore, only at Site 659 was precession found to be dominant to obliquity. Abundance peaks of individual species were found to cross-correlate between sites. The distinct abundance fluctuations observed especially in the tropics suggest that temperature is not the only factor responsible for this variation. This study reveals for the first time the importance of productivity pressure on the suppression of Discoaster abundance.

Age models and sea-surface paleotemperature reconstruction of sediment cores from the eastern equatorial Atlantic

Based on the faunal record of planktonic foraminifers in three long gravity sediment cores from the eastern equatorial Atlantic, the sea-surface temperature history ove the last 750,000 years was studied at a resolution of 3,000 to 10,000 years. Detailed oxygen-isotope and paleomagnetic stratigraphy helped to identify the following major faunal events: Globorotaloides hexagonus and Globorotalia tumida flexuosa became extinct in the eastern tropical Atlantic at the isotope stage 4/5 boundary, now dated at 68,000 years B.P. The persistent occurrence of the pink variety of Globigerinoides ruber started during the late stage 12 at 410,000 years B.P. CARTUNE-age. This datum may provide an easily detectible faunal stratigraphic marker for the mid-Brunhes Chron. The updated scheme of the Ericson zones helped the recognition of a hiatus at the northwestern slope of the Sierra Leone Basin covering oxygen-isotope stages 10 to 12. Classifying the planktonic foraminifer counts into six faunal assemblages, according to the factor analysis derived model of Pflaumann (1985), the tropical and the tropical-upwelling communities account for 57 % at Site 16415, and 86 % at Site 13519, respectively of the variance of the faunal record. A largely continuous paleotemperature record for both winter and summer seasons was obtained from the top of the Sierra Leone Rise with the winter temperatures ranging between 20 and 25 °C, and the summer ones between 24 and 30 °C. The record of cores from greater water depths is frequently interrupted by samples with no-analogue faunal communities and/or poor preservation. Based on the seasonality signal, during cold periods the termal equator shifted to a geographically mnore asymmetrical northern position. Dissolution altering the faunal communities becomes stronger with greater water depth, the estimated mean minimum loss of specimens increases from 70 % to 80 % between 2,860 and 3,850 water depth although some species will be more susceptible than others. Enhanced dissolution occured during stage 4 but also during cold phases in the warm stage 7 and 9. Correlations between the Foraminiferal Dissolution Index and the estimated sea-surface temperatures are significant. Foraminiferal flux rates, negatively correlated to the flux rates of organic carbon and of diatoms, may be a result of enhanced dissolution during cold stages, destroying still more of the faunal signal than indicated by the calculated minimum loss. The fluctuations of the oxygen-isotope curves and the hibernal sea-surfave temperatures are fairly coherent. During warm oxygen-isotope stages the temperature maxima lag often by 5 to 15 ka behind the respective sotope minima. During cold stages, sea-surface temperature changes are partly out of phase and contain additional fluctuations.

Q method factor analysis of stakeholder social perspectives of the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessment public participation in the Western Cape, South Africa

Public participation is an integral part of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and as such, has been incorporated into regulatory norms. Assessment of the effectiveness of public participation has remained elusive however. This is partly due to the difficulty in identifying appropriate effectiveness criteria. This research uses Q methodology to discover and analyze stakeholder's social perspectives of the effectiveness of EIAs in the Western Cape, South Africa. It considers two case studies (Main Road and Saldanha Bay EIAs) for contextual participant perspectives of the effectiveness based on their experience. It further considers the more general opinion of provincial consent regulator staff at the Department of Environmental Affairs and the Department of Planning (DEA&DP). Two main themes of investigation are drawn from the South African National Environmental Management Act imperative for effectiveness: firstly, the participation procedure, and secondly, the stakeholder capabilities necessary for effective participation. Four theoretical frameworks drawn from planning, politics and EIA theory are adapted to public participation and used to triangulate the analysis and discussion of the revealed social perspectives. They consider citizen power in deliberation, Habermas' preconditions for the Ideal Speech Situation (ISS), a Foucauldian perspective of knowledge, power and politics, and a Capabilities Approach to public participation effectiveness. The empirical evidence from this research shows that the capacity and contextual constraints faced by participants demand the legislative imperatives for effective participation set out in the NEMA. The implementation of effective public participation has been shown to be a complex, dynamic and sometimes nebulous practice. The functional level of participant understanding of the process was found to be significantly wide-ranging with consequences of unequal and dissatisfied stakeholder engagements. Furthermore, the considerable variance of stakeholder capabilities in the South African social context, resulted in inequalities in deliberation. The social perspectives revealed significant differences in participant experience in terms of citizen power in deliberation. The ISS preconditions are highly contested in both the Saldanha EIA case study and the DEA&DP social perspectives. Only one Main Road EIA case study social perspective considered Foucault's notion of governmentality as a reality in EIA public participation. The freedom of control of ones environment, based on a Capabilities approach, is a highly contested notion. Although agreed with in principle, all of the social perspectives indicate that contextual and capacity realities constrain its realisation. This research has shown that Q method can be applied to EIA public participation in South Africa and, with the appropriate research or monitoring applications it could serve as a useful feedback tool to inform best practice public participation.

Geochemistry and kinetic models od Cretaceous samples

The source rock potential of Cretaceous organic rich whole rock samples from deep sea drilling project (DSDP) wells offshore southwestern Africa was investigated using bulk and quantitative pyrolysis techniques. The sample material was taken from organic rich intervals of Aptian, Albian and Turonian aged core samples from DSDP site 364 offshore Angola, DSDP well 530A north of the Walvis Ridge offshore Namibia, and DSDP well 361 offshore South Africa. The analytical program included TOC, Rock-Eval, pyrolysis GC, bulk kinetics and micro-scale sealed vessel pyrolysis (MSSV) experiments. The results were used to determine differences in the source rock petroleum type organofacies, petroleum composition, gas/oil ratio (GOR) and pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) behavior of hydrocarbons generated from these black shales for petroleum system modeling purposes. The investigated Aptian and Albian organic rich shales proved to contain excellent quality marine kerogens. The highest source rock potential was identified in sapropelic shales in DSDP well 364, containing very homogeneous Type II and organic sulfur rich Type IIS kerogen. They generate P-N-A low wax oils and low GOR sulfur rich oils, whereas Type III kerogen rich silty sandstones of DSDP well 361 show a potential for gas/condensate generation. Bulk kinetic experiments on these samples indicate that the organic sulfur contents influence kerogen transformation rates, Type IIS kerogen being the least stable. South of the Walvis Ridge, the Turonian contains predominantly a Type III kerogen. North of the Walvis Ridge, the Turonian black shales contain Type II kerogen and have the potential to generate P-N-A low and high wax oils, the latter with a high GOR at high maturity. Our results provide the first compositional kinetic description of Cretaceous organic rich black shales, and demonstrate the excellent source rock potential, especially of the Aptian-aged source rock, that has been recognized in a number of the South Atlantic offshore basins.

Gridded climate data from 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) downscaled to 30 arc seconds for Europe, with links to NetCDF files

Studies on the impact of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (less or equal 1km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1°C and 0.5 °C for 98.9% and 87.8% of all pixels for the first two 1 arc degree distance zones. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 'bioclimatic' variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

Financial Policies and Dynamic Game Simulation in Poland and Hungary

Recently, steady economic growth rates have been kept in Poland and Hungary. Money supplies are growing rather rapidly in these economies. In large, exchange rates have trends of depreciation. Then, exports and prices show the steady growth rates. It can be thought that per capita GDPs are in the same level and development stages are similar in these two countries. It is assumed that these two economies have the same export market and export goods are competing in it. If one country has an expansion of monetary policy, price increase and interest rate decrease. Then, exchange rate decrease. Exports and GDP will increase through this phenomenon. At the same time, this expanded monetary policy affects another country through the trade. This mutual relationship between two countries can be expressed by the Nash-equilibrium in the Game theory. In this paper, macro-econometric models of Polish and Hungarian economies are built and the Nash- equilibrium is introduced into them.

Do electricity supply constraints matter for comparative advantage? : a neoclassical approach

This paper examines the extent to which electricity supply constraints could affect sectoral specialization. For this purpose, an empirical trade model is estimated from 1990-2008 panel data on 15 OECD countries and 12 manufacturing sectors. We find that along with Ricardian technological differences and Heckscher-Ohlin factor-endowment differences, productivity-adjusted electricity capacity drives sectoral specialization in several sectors. Among them, electrical equipment, transport equipment, machinery, chemicals, and paper products will see lower output shares as a result of decreases in productivity-adjusted electricity capacity. Furthermore, our dynamic panel estimation reveals that the effects of Ricardian technological differences dominate in the short-run, and factor endowment differences and productivity-adjusted electricity capacity tend to have a significant effect in only the long-run.

Spillover effects of TTIP on BRICS economies : a dynamic GVC-based CGE model

This paper uses a GVC (Global Value Chain)-based CGE model to assess the impact of TTIP between the U.S. and the EU on their main trading partners who are mainly engaged at the low end in the division system of global value chains, such as BRICS countries. The simulation results indicate that in general the TTIP would positively impact global trade and economies due to the reduction of both tariff and non-tariff barriers. With great increases in the US–EU bilateral trade, significant economic gains for the U.S. and the EU can be expected. For most BRICS countries, the aggregate exports and GDP suffer small negative impacts from the TTIP, except Brazil, but the inter-country trade within BRICS economies increases due to the substitution effect between the US–EU trade and the imports from BRICS countries when the TTIP commences.

Determinants of inbound tourists in Cambodia : a dynamic panel data approach

Understanding the determinants of tourism demand is crucial for the tourism sector. This paper develops a dynamic panel model to examine the determinants of inbound tourists to Siem Reap airport, Phnom Penh airport, and land and waterway borders in Cambodia. Consistent with the consumer theory of tourism consumption, a 10% increase in the origin country GDP per capita is predicted to increase the number of tourist visits to Siem Reap airport by 5.8%. A 10% increase in the real exchange rate between the origin country and Cambodia is predicted to decrease the number of tourist visits by 0.89%. In contrast, the number of foreign tourists in a previous period has little effect on the number of foreign tourists in the current period. Additionally, the determinants are different by the mode of entry to Cambodia.

Flujo de potencia entre estructuras complejas sometidas a excitaciones de alta frecuencia y aplicaciones a la detección de daño estructural

El tema central de investigación en esta Tesis es el estudio del comportamientodinámico de una estructura mediante modelos que describen la distribución deenergía entre los componentes de la misma y la aplicación de estos modelos parala detección de daños incipientes.Los ensayos dinámicos son un modo de extraer información sobre las propiedadesde una estructura. Si tenemos un modelo de la estructura se podría ajustar éstepara que, con determinado grado de precisión, tenga la misma respuesta que elsistema real ensayado. Después de que se produjese un daño en la estructura,la respuesta al mismo ensayo variará en cierta medida; actualizando el modelo alas nuevas condiciones podemos detectar cambios en la configuración del modeloestructural que nos condujeran a la conclusión de que en la estructura se haproducido un daño.De este modo, la detección de un daño incipiente es posible si somos capacesde distinguir una pequeña variación en los parámetros que definen el modelo. Unrégimen muy apropiado para realizar este tipo de detección es a altas frecuencias,ya que la respuesta es muy dependiente de los pequeños detalles geométricos,dado que el tamaño característico en la estructura asociado a la respuesta esdirectamente proporcional a la velocidad de propagación de las ondas acústicas enel sólido, que para una estructura dada es inalterable, e inversamente proporcionala la frecuencia de la excitación. Al mismo tiempo, esta característica de la respuestaa altas frecuencias hace que un modelo de Elementos Finitos no sea aplicable enla práctica, debido al alto coste computacional.Un modelo ampliamente utilizado en el cálculo de la respuesta de estructurasa altas frecuencias en ingeniería es el SEA (Statistical Energy Analysis). El SEAaplica el balance energético a cada componente estructural, relacionando la energíade vibración de estos con la potencia disipada por cada uno de ellos y la potenciatransmitida entre ellos, cuya suma debe ser igual a la potencia inyectada a cadacomponente estructural. Esta relación es lineal y viene caracterizada por los factoresde pérdidas. Las magnitudes que intervienen en la respuesta se consideranpromediadas en la geometría, la frecuencia y el tiempo.Actualizar el modelo SEA a datos de ensayo es, por lo tanto, calcular losfactores de pérdidas que reproduzcan la respuesta obtenida en éste. Esta actualización,si se hace de manera directa, supone la resolución de un problema inversoque tiene la característica de estar mal condicionado. En la Tesis se propone actualizarel modelo SEA, no en término de los factores de pérdidas, sino en términos deparámetros estructurales que tienen sentido físico cuando se trata de la respuestaa altas frecuencias, como son los factores de disipación de cada componente, susdensidades modales y las rigideces características de los elementos de acoplamiento.Los factores de pérdidas se calculan como función de estos parámetros. Estaformulación es desarrollada de manera original en esta Tesis y principalmente sefunda en la hipótesis de alta densidad modal, es decir, que en la respuesta participanun gran número de modos de cada componente estructural.La teoría general del método SEA, establece que el modelo es válido bajounas hipótesis sobre la naturaleza de las excitaciones externas muy restrictivas,como que éstas deben ser de tipo ruido blanco local. Este tipo de carga es difícil dereproducir en condiciones de ensayo. En la Tesis mostramos con casos prácticos queesta restricción se puede relajar y, en particular, los resultados son suficientementebuenos cuando la estructura se somete a una carga armónica en escalón.Bajo estas aproximaciones se desarrolla un algoritmo de optimización por pasosque permite actualizar un modelo SEA a un ensayo transitorio cuando la carga esde tipo armónica en escalón. Este algoritmo actualiza el modelo no solamente parauna banda de frecuencia en particular sino para diversas bandas de frecuencia demanera simultánea, con el objetivo de plantear un problema mejor condicionado.Por último, se define un índice de daño que mide el cambio en la matriz depérdidas cuando se produce un daño estructural en una localización concreta deun componente. Se simula numéricamente la respuesta de una estructura formadapor vigas donde producimos un daño en la sección de una de ellas; como se tratade un cálculo a altas frecuencias, la simulación se hace mediante el Método delos Elementos Espectrales para lo que ha sido necesario desarrollar dentro de laTesis un elemento espectral de tipo viga dañada en una sección determinada. Losresultados obtenidos permiten localizar el componente estructural en que se haproducido el daño y la sección en que éste se encuentra con determinado grado deconfianza.AbstractThe main subject under research in this Thesis is the study of the dynamic behaviourof a structure using models that describe the energy distribution betweenthe components of the structure and the applicability of these models to incipientdamage detection.Dynamic tests are a way to extract information about the properties of astructure. If we have a model of the structure, it can be updated in order toreproduce the same response as in experimental tests, within a certain degree ofaccuracy. After damage occurs, the response will change to some extent; modelupdating to the new test conditions can help to detect changes in the structuralmodel leading to the conclusión that damage has occurred.In this way incipient damage detection is possible if we are able to detect srnallvariations in the model parameters. It turns out that the high frequency regimeis highly relevant for incipient damage detection, because the response is verysensitive to small structural geometric details. The characteristic length associatedwith the response is proportional to the propagation speed of acoustic waves insidethe solid, but inversely proportional to the excitation frequency. At the same time,this fact makes the application of a Finite Element Method impractical due to thehigh computational cost.A widely used model in engineering when dealing with the high frequencyresponse is SEA (Statistical Energy Analysis). SEA applies the energy balance toeach structural component, relating their vibrational energy with the dissipatedpower and the transmitted power between the different components; their summust be equal to the input power to each of them. This relationship is linear andcharacterized by loss factors. The magnitudes considered in the response shouldbe averaged in geometry, frequency and time.SEA model updating to test data is equivalent to calculating the loss factorsthat provide a better fit to the experimental response. This is formulated as an illconditionedinverse problem. In this Thesis a new updating algorithm is proposedfor the study of the high frequency response regime in terms of parameters withphysical meaning such as the internal dissipation factors, modal densities andcharacteristic coupling stiffness. The loss factors are then calculated from theseparameters. The approach is developed entirely in this Thesis and is mainlybased on a high modal density asumption, that is to say, a large number of modescontributes to the response.General SEA theory establishes the validity of the model under the asumptionof very restrictive external excitations. These should behave as a local white noise.This kind of excitation is difficult to reproduce in an experimental environment.In this Thesis we show that in practical cases this assumption can be relaxed, inparticular, results are good enough when the structure is excited with a harmonicstep function.Under these assumptions an optimization algorithm is developed for SEAmodel updating to a transient test when external loads are harmonic step functions.This algorithm considers the response not only in a single frequency band,but also for several of them simultaneously.A damage index is defined that measures the change in the loss factor matrixwhen a damage has occurred at a certain location in the structure. The structuresconsidered in this study are built with damaged beam elements; as we are dealingwith the high frequency response, the numerical simulation is implemented witha Spectral Element Method. It has therefore been necessary to develop a spectralbeam damaged element as well. The reported results show that damage detectionis possible with this algorithm, moreover, damage location is also possible withina certain degree of accuracy.

Dynamic Model-based Management of Service-Oriented Infrastructure.

Models are an effective tool for systems and software design. They allow software architects to abstract from the non-relevant details. Those qualities are also useful for the technical management of networks, systems and software, such as those that compose service oriented architectures. Models can provide a set of well-defined abstractions over the distributed heterogeneous service infrastructure that enable its automated management. We propose to use the managed system as a source of dynamically generated runtime models, and decompose management processes into a composition of model transformations. We have created an autonomic service deployment and configuration architecture that obtains, analyzes, and transforms system models to apply the required actions, while being oblivious to the low-level details. An instrumentation layer automatically builds these models and interprets the planned management actions to the system. We illustrate these concepts with a distributed service update operation.

Uniformly Reweighted Belief Propagation: A Factor Graph Approach

Tree-reweighted belief propagation is a message passing method that has certain advantages compared to traditional belief propagation (BP). However, it fails to outperform BP in a consistent manner, does not lend itself well to distributed implementation, and has not been applied to distributions with higher-order interactions. We propose a method called uniformly-reweighted belief propagation that mitigates these drawbacks. After having shown in previous works that this method can substantially outperform BP in distributed inference with pairwise interaction models, in this paper we extend it to higher-order interactions and apply it to LDPC decoding, leading performance gains over BP.

Dynamic Response of Wind Turbines to Theoretical 3D Seismic Motions Taking into Account the Rotational Component

We study the dynamic response of a wind turbine structure subjected to theoretical seismic motions, taking into account the rotational component of ground shaking. Models are generated for a shallow moderate crustal earthquake in the Madrid Region (Spain). Synthetic translational and rotational time histories are computed using the Discrete Wavenumber Method, assuming a point source and a horizontal layered earth structure. These are used to analyze the dynamic response of a wind turbine, represented by a simple finite element model. Von Mises stress values at different heights of the tower are used to study the dynamical structural response to a set of synthetic ground motion time histories