912 resultados para default probability


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Pipelines are important lifeline facilities spread over a large area and they generally encounter a range of seismic hazards and different soil conditions. The seismic response of a buried segmented pipe depends on various parameters such as the type of buried pipe material and joints, end restraint conditions, soil characteristics, burial depths, and earthquake ground motion, etc. This study highlights the effect of the variation of geotechnical properties of the surrounding soil on seismic response of a buried pipeline. The variations of the properties of the surrounding soil along the pipe are described by sampling them from predefined probability distribution. The soil-pipe interaction model is developed in OpenSEES. Nonlinear earthquake time-history analysis is performed to study the effect of soil parameters variability on the response of pipeline. Based on the results, it is found that uncertainty in soil parameters may result in significant response variability of the pipeline.

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At NTCIR-9, we participated in the cross-lingual link discovery (Crosslink) task. In this paper we describe our approaches to discovering Chinese, Japanese, and Korean (CJK) cross-lingual links for English documents in Wikipedia. Our experimental results show that a link mining approach that mines the existing link structure for anchor probabilities and relies on the “translation” using cross-lingual document name triangulation performs very well. The evaluation shows encouraging results for our system.

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This paper presents techniques which can lead to diagnosis of faults in a small size multi-cylinder diesel engine. Preliminary analysis of the acoustic emission (AE) signals is outline, including time-frequency analysis and selection of optimum frequency band.The results of applying mean field independent component analysis (MFICA) to separate the AE root mean square (RMS) signals and the effects of changing parameter values are also outlined. The results on separation of RMS signals show thsi technique has the potential of increasing the probability to successfully identify the AE events associated with the various mechanical events within the combustion process of multi-cylinder diesel engines.

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Climate change will alter the basic physical and chemical environment underpinning all life. Species will be affected differentially by these alterations, resulting in changes to the structure and composition of present-day freshwater ecological communities, with the potential to change the ways in which these ecosystems function and the services they provide.

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This paper reports on a unique study of a large, random sample of business start-ups that were identified prior to the actual, commercial launch of the ventures. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, to present frequencies on the involvement of the Swedish population in the small business sector (particularly in start-ups of firms) and to compare these with estimates from Norway and the USA, which are based on studies using a similar research design. The authors also discuss the possible reasons for the differences that emerge between countries. Second, the characteristics of nascent entrepreneurs (i.e. individuals trying to start an independent business) are analysed and compared for sub-groups within the sample and with characteristics of business founders as they appear in theoretical accounts or retrospective empirical studies of surviving all firms. In order to get a representative sample from the working age population, respondents (n = 30,427) were randomly selected and interviewed by telephone. It was found that 2.0% of the Swedish population at the time of the interview were trying to start an independent business. Sweden had a significantly lower prevalence rate of nascent entrepreneurs compared to Norway and the USA. Nascent entrepreneurs were then compared to a control group of people not trying to start a business. The results confirmed findings from previous studies of business founders pointing to the importance of role models and the impression of self-employment obtained through these, employment status, age, education and experience. Marital status, the number of children in the household, and length of employment experience were unrelated to the probability of becoming a nascent entrepreneur. The gender of the respondent was the strongest distinguishing factor. Importantly, the results suggest that while one has a reasonably good understanding of the characteristics associated with men going into business for themselves, the type of variables investigated here have very limited ability to predict nascent entrepreneur status for women.

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Consider the concept combination ‘pet human’. In word association experiments, human subjects produce the associate ‘slave’ in relation to this combination. The striking aspect of this associate is that it is not produced as an associate of ‘pet’, or ‘human’ in isolation. In other words, the associate ‘slave’ seems to be emergent. Such emergent associations sometimes have a creative character and cognitive science is largely silent about how we produce them. Departing from a dimensional model of human conceptual space, this article will explore concept combinations, and will argue that emergent associations are a result of abductive reasoning within conceptual space, that is, below the symbolic level of cognition. A tensor-based approach is used to model concept combinations allowing such combinations to be formalized as interacting quantum systems. Free association norm data is used to motivate the underlying basis of the conceptual space. It is shown by analogy how some concept combinations may behave like quantum-entangled (non-separable) particles. Two methods of analysis were presented for empirically validating the presence of non-separable concept combinations in human cognition. One method is based on quantum theory and another based on comparing a joint (true theoretic) probability distribution with another distribution based on a separability assumption using a chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Although these methods were inconclusive in relation to an empirical study of bi-ambiguous concept combinations, avenues for further refinement of these methods are identified.

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Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

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Compositionality is a frequently made assumption in linguistics, and yet many human subjects reveal highly non-compositional word associations when confronted with novel concept combinations. This article will show how a non-compositional account of concept combinations can be supplied by modelling them as interacting quantum systems.

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The changing R&D Tax Concession has been touted as the biggest reform to business innovation policy in over a decade. But, is it a changing tax for changing times? This paper addresses this question and further asks ‘what’s tax got to do with it?’. To answer this question, the paper argues that rather than substantive tax reform, the proposed measures simply alter the criteria and means by which companies become eligible for a Federal Government subsidy for qualifying R&D activity. It further argues that when considered as part of the broader innovation agenda, the R&D Tax Concession should be evaluated as a government spending program in the same way as any direct spending on innovation. When this is done, the tax regime is arguably only the administrative policy instrument by which the subsidy is delivered. However, it is proposed that this may not be best practice to distribute those funds fairly, efficiently, and without distortion, while at the same time maintaining adequate government control and accountability. Finally, in answering the question of ‘what’s tax got to do with it?’ the paper concludes that the answer is ‘very little’.

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Australians are the creators and custodians of a broad range of cultural materials. This material includes literary, photographic, video and audio archives. These archives should be made available to all Australians for access and reuse, as part of a pre-competitive platform which promotes the interests of the Australian public in gaining access to a diverse range of content that contributes to the development of national and cultural identity. This does not mean that all material must be made available for access and reuse for free and in an unrestricted fashion. But for publicly funded content, free and unrestricted access should be the default. The Venturous Australia report on the National Innovation System recommended that “[t]o the maximum extent possible, information, research and content funded by Australian governments – including national collections – should be made freely available over the internet as part of the global public commons.”1 The report further stated that “both for its direct and indirect benefits to Australia and for the greater global good, Australia should energetically and proudly maximise the extent to which it makes government funded content available as part of the global digital commons...

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The question of under what conditions conceptual representation is compositional remains debatable within cognitive science. This paper proposes a well developed mathematical apparatus for a probabilistic representation of concepts, drawing upon methods developed in quantum theory to propose a formal test that can determine whether a specific conceptual combination is compositional, or not. This test examines a joint probability distribution modeling the combination, asking whether or not it is factorizable. Empirical studies indicate that some combinations should be considered non-compositionally.

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Objective: To (1) search the English-language literature for original research addressing the effect of cryotherapy on joint position sense (JPS) and (2) make recommendations regarding how soon healthy athletes can safely return to participation after cryotherapy. Data Sources: We performed an exhaustive search for original research using the AMED, CINAHL, MEDLINE, and SportDiscus databases from 1973 to 2009 to gather information on cryotherapy and JPS. Key words used were cryotherapy and proprioception, cryotherapy and joint position sense, cryotherapy, and proprioception. Study Selection: The inclusion criteria were (1) the literature was written in English, (2) participants were human, (3) an outcome measure included JPS, (4) participants were healthy, and (5) participants were tested immediately after a cryotherapy application to a joint. Data Extraction: The means and SDs of the JPS outcome measures were extracted and used to estimate the effect size (Cohen d) and associated 95% confidence intervals for comparisons of JPS before and after a cryotherapy treatment. The numbers, ages, and sexes of participants in all 7 selected studies were also extracted. Data Synthesis: The JPS was assessed in 3 joints: ankle (n 5 2), knee (n 5 3), and shoulder (n 5 2). The average effect size for the 7 included studies was modest, with effect sizes ranging from 20.08 to 1.17, with a positive number representing an increase in JPS error. The average methodologic score of the included studies was 5.4/10 (range, 5–6) on the Physiotherapy Evidence Database scale. Conclusions: Limited and equivocal evidence is available to address the effect of cryotherapy on proprioception in the form of JPS. Until further evidence is provided, clinicians should be cautious when returning individuals to tasks requiring components of proprioceptive input immediately after a cryotherapy treatment.

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Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) has recently conducted a technology demonstration of a novel fixed wireless broadband access system in rural Australia. The system is based on multi user multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MU-MIMO-OFDM). It demonstrated an uplink of six simultaneous users with distances ranging from 10 m to 8.5 km from a central tower, achieving 20 bits s/Hz spectrum efficiency. This paper reports on the analysis of channel capacity and bit error probability simulation based on the measured MUMIMO-OFDM channels obtained during the demonstration, and their comparison with the results based on channels simulated by a novel geometric optics based channel model suitable for MU-MIMO OFDM in rural areas. Despite its simplicity, the model was found to predict channel capacity and bit error rate probability accurately for a typical MU-MIMO-OFDM deployment scenario.

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A practical approach for identifying solution robustness is proposed for situations where parameters are uncertain. The approach is based upon the interpretation of a probability density function (pdf) and the definition of three parameters that describe how significant changes in the performance of a solution are deemed to be. The pdf is constructed by interpreting the results of simulations. A minimum number of simulations are achieved by updating the mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis of the sample using computationally efficient recursive equations. When these criterions have converged then no further simulations are needed. A case study involving several no-intermediate storage flow shop scheduling problems demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach.