Error bounds for calculation of the Gittins indices

For a wide class of semi-Markov decision processes the optimal policies are expressible in terms of the Gittins indices, which have been found useful in sequential clinical trials and pharmaceutical research planning. In general, the indices can be approximated via calibration based on dynamic programming of finite horizon. This paper provides some results on the accuracy of such approximations, and, in particular, gives the error bounds for some well known processes (Bernoulli reward processes, normal reward processes and exponential target processes).

Impact of automatic region-of-interest coding on perceived quality in mobile video

At present, the most reliable method to obtain end-user perceived quality is through subjective tests. In this paper, the impact of automatic region-of-interest (ROI) coding on perceived quality of mobile video is investigated. The evidence, which is based on perceptual comparison analysis, shows that the coding strategy improves perceptual quality. This is particularly true in low bit rate situations. The ROI detection method used in this paper is based on two approaches: - (1) automatic ROI by analyzing the visual contents automatically, and; - (2) eye-tracking based ROI by aggregating eye-tracking data across many users, used to both evaluate the accuracy of automatic ROI detection and the subjective quality of automatic ROI encoded video. The perceptual comparison analysis is based on subjective assessments with 54 participants, across different content types, screen resolutions, and target bit rates while comparing the two ROI detection methods. The results from the user study demonstrate that ROI-based video encoding has higher perceived quality compared to normal video encoded at a similar bit rate, particularly in the lower bit rate range.

Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Microprocessor-controlled automatic focusing of a lens

Maximum intensity contrast has been used as a measure of lens defocus. A photodiode array under the control of 8085 microprocessor is used to measure the maximum intensity contrast and to position the lens for best focus. The lens is moved by a stepper motor under processor control at a speed of 350 to 500 steps/s. At this speed, focusing time was found to be between 5 and 8 s. Under coherent illuminating conditions, an accuracy of ± 50 μm has been achieved.

An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

Self-rating scales in the assessment of current and childhood symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adults

Objective: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a life-long condition, but because of its historical status as a self-remitting disorder of childhood, empirically validated and reliable methods for the assessment of adults are scarce. In this study, the validity and reliability of the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS) and the Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), which survey childhood and current symptoms of ADHD, respectively, were studied in a Finnish sample. Methods: The self-rating scales were administered to adults with an ADHD diagnosis (n = 38), healthy control participants (n = 41), and adults diagnosed with dyslexia (n = 37). Items of the self-rating scales were subjected to factor analyses, after which the reliability and discriminatory power of the subscales, derived from the factors, were examined. The effects of group and gender on the subscales of both rating scales were studied. Additionally, the effect of age on the subscales of the WURS was investigated. Finally, the diagnostic accuracy of the total scores was studied. Results: On the basis of the factor analyses, a four-factor structure for the WURS and five-factor structure for the APQ had the best fit to the data. All of the subscales of the APQ and three of the WURS achieved sufficient reliability. The ADHD group had the highest scores on all of the subscales of the APQ, whereas two of the subscales of the WURS did not statistically differ between the ADHD and the Dyslexia group. None of the subscales of the WURS or the APQ was associated with the participant's gender. However, one subscale of the WURS describing dysthymia was positively correlated with the participant's age. With the WURS, the probability of a correct positive classification was .59 in the current sample and .21 when the relatively low prevalence of adult ADHD was taken into account. The probabilities of correct positive classifications with the APQ were .71 and .23, respectively. Conclusions: The WURS and the APQ can provide accurate and reliable information of childhood and adult ADHD symptoms, given some important constraints. Classifications made on the basis of the total scores are reliable predictors of ADHD diagnosis only in populations with a high proportion of ADHD and a low proportion of other similar disorders. The subscale scores can provide detailed information of an individual's symptoms if the characteristics and limitations of each domain are taken into account. Improvements are suggested for two subscales of the WURS.

Energetics of the condensed ternary fuel-oxidizer systems

the heats of reaction of an oxygen-balanced ternary fuel-oxidizer system have been shown to be linearly related to the total oxidizing valences (P0) of the composition. Because calculation of P0 is simple, the method is found to help in evaluating the energetics of such systems. The accuracy of the method when applied to various ternary systems has been discussed.

Tadpole mouthpart depigmentation as an accurate indicator of chytridiomycosis, an emerging disease of amphibians

Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease of amphibians caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, and its role in causing population declines and species extinctions worldwide has created an urgent need for methods to detect it. Several reports indicate that in anurans chytridiomycosis can cause the depigmentation of tadpole tnouthparts, but the accuracy of using depigmentation to determine disease status remains uncertain. Our objective was to determine for the Mountain Yellow-legged Frog (Rana muscosa) whether visual inspections of the extent of tadpole mouthpart depigmentation could be used to accurately categorize individual tadpoles or R. muscosa populations as B. dendrobatidis-positive or negative. This was accomplished by assessing the degree of mouthpart depigmentation in tadpoles of known disease status (based on PCR assays). The depigmentation of R. muscosa tadpole mouthparts was associated with the presence of B. dendrobatidis, and this association was particularly strong for upper jaw sheaths. Using a rule that classifies tadpoles with upper jaw sheaths that are 100% pigmented as uninfected and those with jaw sheaths that are <100% pigmented as infected resulted in the infection status of 86% of the tadpoles being correctly classified. By applying this rule to jaw sheath pigmentation scores averaged across all tadpoles inspected per site, we were able to correctly categorize the infection status of 92% of the study populations. Similar research on additional anurans is critically needed to determine how broadly applicable our results for R. muscosa are to other species.

What lies beneath? The pattern and abundance of the subterranean tuber bank of the invasive liana cat's claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae)

Cat’s claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry (Bignoniaceae) is a major environmental weed of riparian areas, rainforest communities and remnant natural vegetation in coastal Queensland and New South Wales, Australia. In densely infested areas, it smothers standing vegetation, including large trees, and causes canopy collapse. Quantitative data on the ecology of this invasive vine are generally lacking. The present study examines the underground tuber traits of M. unguis-cati and explores their links with aboveground parameters at five infested sites spanning both riparian and inland vegetation. Tubers were abundant in terms of density (~1000 per m2), although small in size and low in level of interconnectivity. M. unguis-cati also exhibits multiple stems per plant. Of all traits screened, the link between stand (stem density) and tuber density was the most significant and yielded a promising bivariate relationship for the purposes of estimation, prediction and management of what lies beneath the soil surface of a given M. unguis-cati infestation site. The study also suggests that new recruitment is primarily from seeds, not from vegetative propagation as previously thought. The results highlight the need for future biological-control efforts to focus on introducing specialist seed- and pod-feeding insects to reduce seed-output.

Assessing the taxonomic status of dingoes Canis familiaris for conservation

1. The conservation status of the dingo Canis familiaris dingo is threatened by hybridization with the domestic dog C. familiaris familiaris. A practical method that can estimate the different levels of hybridization in the field is urgently required so that animals below a specific threshold of dingo ancestry (e.g. 1/4 or 1/2 dingoes) can reliably be identified and removed from dingo populations. 2. Skull morphology has been traditionally used to assess dingo purity, but this method does not discriminate between the different levels of dingo ancestry in hybrids. Furthermore, measurements can only be reliably taken from the skulls of dead animals. 3. Methods based on the analysis of variation in DNA are able to discriminate between the different levels of hybridization, but the validity of this method has been questioned because the materials currently used as a reference for dingoes are from captive animals of unproven genetic purity. The use of pre-European materials would improve the accuracy of this method, but suitable material has not been found in sufficient quantity to develop a reliable reference population. Furthermore, current methods based on DNA are impractical for the field-based discrimination of hybrids because samples require laboratory analysis. 4. Coat colour has also been used to estimate the extent of hybridization and is possibly the most practical method to apply in the field. However, this method may not be as powerful as genetic or morphological analyses because some hybrids (e.g. Australian cattle dog × dingo) are similar to dingoes in coat colour and body form. This problem may be alleviated by using additional visual characteristics such as the presence/absence of ticking and white markings.

The influence of a novel simulated learning environment upon student clinical subjective refraction performance: A pilot study

Background: Optometry students are taught the process of subjective refraction through lectures and laboratory based practicals before progressing to supervised clinical practice. Simulated learning environments (SLEs) are an emerging technology that are used in a range of health disciplines, however, there is limited evidence regarding the effectiveness of clinical simulators as an educational tool. Methods: Forty optometry students (20 fourth year and 20 fifth year) were assessed twice by a qualified optometrist (two examinations separated by 4-8 weeks) while completing a monocular non-cycloplegic subjective refraction on the same patient with an unknown refractive error simulated using contact lenses. Half of the students were granted access to an online SLE, The Brien Holden Vision Institute (BHVI®) Virtual Refractor, and the remaining students formed a control group. The primary outcome measures at each visit were; accuracy of the clinical refraction compared to a qualified optometrist and relative to the Optometry Council of Australia and New Zealand (OCANZ) subjective refraction examination criteria. Secondary measures of interest included descriptors of student SLE engagement, student self-reported confidence levels and correlations between performance in the simulated and real world clinical environment. Results: Eighty percent of students in the intervention group interacted with the SLE (for an average of 100 minutes); however, there was no correlation between measures of student engagement with the BHVI® Virtual Refractor and speed or accuracy of clinical subjective refractions. Fifth year students were typically more confident and refracted more accurately and quickly than fourth year students. A year group by experimental group interaction (p = 0.03) was observed for accuracy of the spherical component of refraction, and post hoc analysis revealed that less experienced students exhibited greater gains in clinical accuracy following exposure to the SLE intervention. Conclusions: Short-term exposure to a SLE can positively influence clinical subjective refraction outcomes for less experienced optometry students and may be of benefit in increasing the skills of novice refractionists to levels appropriate for commencing supervised clinical interactions.

Oral Actinomyces Species in Health and Disease: Identification, Occurence and Importance of Early Colonization

The genus Actinomyces consists of a heterogeneous group of gram-positive, mainly facultatively anaerobic or microaerobic rods showing various degrees of branching. In the oral cavity, streptococci and Actinomyces form a fundamental component of the indigenous microbiota, being among initial colonizers in polymicrobial biofilms. The significance of the genus Actinomyces is based on the capability of species to adhere to surfaces such as on teeth and to co-aggregate with other bacteria. Identification of Actinomyces species has mainly been based on only a few biochemical characteristics, such as pigmentation and catalase production, or on the use of a single commercial kit. The limited identification of oral Actinomyces isolates to species level has hampered knowledge of their role both in health and disease. In recent years, Actinomyces and related organisms have attracted the attention of clinical microbiologists because of a growing awareness of their presence in clinical specimens and their association with disease. This series of studies aimed to amplify the identification methods for Actinomyces species. With the newly developed identification scheme, the age-related occurrence of Actinomyces in healthy mouths of infants and their distribution in failed dental implants was investigated. Adhesion of Actinomyces species to titanium surfaces processed in various ways was studied in vitro. The results of phenotypic identification methods indicated a relatively low applicability of commercially available test kits for reliable identification within the genus Actinomyces. However, in the study of conventional phenotypic methods, it was possible to develop an identification scheme that resulted in accurate differentiation of Actinomyces and closely related species, using various different test methods. Genotypic methods based on 16S rRNA sequence analysis of Actinomyces proved to be a useful method for genus level identification and further clarified the species level identification with phenotypic methods. The results of the study of infants showed that the isolation frequency of salivary Actinomyces species increased according to age: thirty-one percent of the infants at 2 months but 97% at 2 years of age were positive for Actinomyces. A. odontolyticus was the most prominent Actinomyces colonizer during the study period followed in frequency by A. naeslundii and A. viscosus. In the study of explanted dental implants, Actinomyces was the most prevalent bacterial genus, colonizing 94% of the fixtures. Also in the implants A. odontolyticus was revealed as the most common Actinomyces species. It was present in 84% of Actinomyces -positive fixtures followed in frequency by A. naeslundii, A. viscosus and A. israelii. In an in vitro study of titanium surfaces, different Actinomyces species showed variation regarding their adhesion to titanium. Surface roughness as well as albumin coating of titanium had significant effects on adhesion. The use of improved phenotypic and molecular diagnostic methods increased the accuracy of the identification of the Actinomyces to species level. This facilitated an investigation of their occurrence and distribution in oral specimens in both health and disease.

Validation and development of PigBal model

This project involves validating and upgrading the PigBal model to improve the accuracy of manure production predictions from intensive piggery operations.

Validation and development of PigBal model - Stage 2

The proposed project involves validate and upgrading the PigBal model to improve the accuracy of manure and GHG production predictions.

Ultrasound of paediatric appendicitis and its secondary sonographic signs: Providing a more meaningful finding

Sonography is an important clinical tool in diagnosing appendicitis in children as it can obviate both exposure to potentially harmful ionising radiation from computed tomography scans and the need for unnecessary appendicectomies. This review examines the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound in the identification of acute appendicitis, with a particular focus on the the utility of secondary sonographic signs as an adjunct or corollary to traditionally examined criteria. These secondary signs can be important in cases where the appendix cannot be identified with ultrasound and a more meaningful finding may be made by incorporating the presence or absence of secondary sonographic signs. There is evidence that integrating these secondary signs into the final ultrasound diagnosis can improve the utility of ultrasound in cases where appendicitis is expected, though there remains some conjecture about whether they play a more important role in negative or positive prediction in the absence of an identifiable appendix.