Using intervention time series analyses to assess the effects of imperfectly identifiable natural events: A general method and example

BACKGROUND: Intervention time series analysis (ITSA) is an important method for analysing the effect of sudden events on time series data. ITSA methods are quasi-experimental in nature and the validity of modelling with these methods depends upon assumptions about the timing of the intervention and the response of the process to it. METHOD: This paper describes how to apply ITSA to analyse the impact of unplanned events on time series when the timing of the event is not accurately known, and so the problems of ITSA methods are magnified by uncertainty in the point of onset of the unplanned intervention. RESULTS: The methods are illustrated using the example of the Australian Heroin Shortage of 2001, which provided an opportunity to study the health and social consequences of an abrupt change in heroin availability in an environment of widespread harm reduction measures. CONCLUSION: Application of these methods enables valuable insights about the consequences of unplanned and poorly identified interventions while minimising the risk of spurious results.

Degradable poly(ethylene glycol)-based hydrogels:synthesis, physico-chemical properties and in vitro characterization

Designing degradable hydrogels is complicated by the structural and temporal complexities of the gel and evolving tissue. A major challenge is to create scaffolds with sufficient mechanical properties to restore initial function while simultaneously controlling temporal changes in the gel structure to facilitate tissue formation. Poly(ethylene glycol) was used in this work, to form biodegradable poly(ethylene glycol)-based hydrogels with hydrolyzable poly-l-lactide segments in the backbone. Non-degradable poly(ethylene glycol) was also introduced in the formulation to obtain control of the degradation profile that encompasses cell growth and new tissue formation. The dependence on polymer composition was observed by higher degradation profiles and decreased mechanical properties as the content of degradable segments was increased in the formulation. Based on in vitro tests, no toxicity of extracts or biomaterial in direct contact with human adipose tissue stem cells was observed, and the ultraviolet light treatment did not affect the proliferation capacity of the cells.

Variation in Miscanthus chemical composition and implications for conversion by pyrolysis and thermo-chemical bio-refining for fuels and chemicals

Different species and genotypes of Miscanthus were analysed to determine the influence of genotypic variation and harvest time on cell wall composition and the products which may be refined via pyrolysis. Wet chemical, thermo-gravimetric (TGA) and pyrolysis-gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (Py-GC–MS) methods were used to identify the main pyrolysis products and determine the extent to which genotypic differences in cell wall composition influence the range and yield of pyrolysis products. Significant genotypic variation in composition was identified between species and genotypes, and a clear relationship was observed between the biomass composition, yields of pyrolysis products, and the composition of the volatile fraction. Results indicated that genotypes other than the commercially cultivated Miscanthus x giganteus may have greater potential for use in bio-refining of fuels and chemicals and several genotypes were identified as excellent candidates for the generation of genetic mapping families and the breeding of new genotypes with improved conversion quality characteristics.

Synthesis and evaluation of novel ligands for quantum dot stabilisation and polymerisation studies

This thesis describes the design and synthesis of a variety of functionalised phosphine oxides and sulfides, based on the structure of trioctylphosphine oxide, synthesised for the purpose of surface modification of quantum dots. The ability of the ligands to modify the surface chemistry via displacement of the original hexadecylamine capping layer of quantum dots was evaluated. Finally the surface modified quantum dots were investigated for enhancement in their inherent properties and improved compatibility with the various applications for which they were initially designed. Upon the commencement of research involving quantum dots it became apparent that more information on their behaviour and interaction with the environment was required. The limits of the inherent stability of hexadecylamine capped quantum dots were investigated by exposure to a number of different environments. The effect upon the stability of the quantum dots was monitored by changes in the photoluminescence ability of their cores. Subtle differences between different batches of quantum dots were observed and the necessity to account for these in future applications noted. Lastly the displacement of the original hexadecylamine coating with the "designer" functionalised ligands was evaluated to produce a set of conditions that would result in the best possible surface modification. A general procedure was elucidated however it was discovered that each displacement still required slight adjustment by consideration of the other factors such as the difference in ligand structure and the individuality of the various batches of quantum dots. This thesis also describes a procedure for the addition of a protective layer to the surface of quantum dots by cross-linking the functionalised ligands bound to the surface via an acyclic diene metathesis polymerisation. A detailed description of the problems encountered in the analysis of these materials combined with the use of novel techniques such as diffusion ordered spectroscopy is provided as a means to overcome the limitations encountered. Finally a demonstration of the superior stability, upon exposure to a range of aggressive environments of these protected materials compared with those before cross-linking provided physical proof of the cross-linking process and the advantages of the cross-linking modification. Finally this thesis includes the presentation of initial work into the production of luminescent nanocrystal encoded resin beads for the specific use in solid phase combinatorial chemistry. Demonstration of the successful covalent incorporation of quantum dots into the polymeric matrices of non-functionalised and functionalised resin beads is described. Finally by preliminary work to address and overcome the possible limitations that may be encountered in the production and general employment of these materials in combinatorial techniques is given.

A combinatorial approach to the chemical synthesis and biological evaluation of 3,4,5-trisubstiituted furan-2(5H)-ones

Many important natural products contain the furan-2(5H)-one structure. The structure of this molecule lends itself to manipulation using combinatorial techniques due to the presence of more than one site for the attachment of different suhstituents. By developing different reaction schemes at the three sites available for attachment on the furan-2(5H)-one scaffold, combinatorial chemistry techniques can be employed to assemble libraries of novel furan 2(5H)-ones. These libraries can then be entered into various biological screening programmes. This approach will enable a vast diversity or compounds to be examined, in the hope or finding new biologically active Iead structures. The work in this thesis has investigated the potential that combinatorial chemistry has in the quest for new biologically active lead structures based on the furan-2(5H)-one structure. Different reactions were investigated with respect to their suitability for inclusion in a library. Once sets of reactions at the various sites had been established, the viability of these reactions in the assembly of combinatorial libraries was investigated. Purification methods were developed, and the purified products entered into suitable biological screening tests. Results from some of these tests were optimised using structure activity relationships, and the resulting products re-screened. The screening tests performed were for anticancer and antimicrobial activity, cholecystokinin (CCK-B) antagonism and anti-inflammatory activity (in the quest for novel cyclo-oxygenase (COX-2) selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs). It has been shown that many reactions undergone by the furan-2(5H)-one structure are suitable for the assembly of a combinatorial library. Investigation into the assembly of different libraries has been carried out with initial screening results included. From this work, further investigation into combinatorial library assembly and structure activity relationships of screened reaction products can be undertaken.