Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

Do planning regulations matter? : a comparison of South East Queensland and South Florida

At one level the urban landscapes of South Florida and South East Queensland look quite similar. However at another level the context of planning and planning control and regulation is quite different. To understand the contextual differences between South Florida and South East Queensland, four themes will be used, some of which were based on Cullingworth and Booth. The four themes include: demography, governance, the law and regulatory philosophy. After having evaluated South Florida and South East Queensland across these four themes, we propose a framework for examining whether these differences have shaped planning outcomes and in particular, the built form.

Exploring the contested role of mandatory reporting laws in the identification of severe child abuse and neglect

Significant numbers of children are severely abused and neglected by parents and caregivers. Infants and very young children are the most vulnerable and are unable to seek help. To identify these situations and enable child protection and the provision of appropriate assistance, many jurisdictions have enacted ‘mandatory reporting laws’ requiring designated professionals such as doctors, nurses, police and teachers to report suspected cases of severe child abuse and neglect. Other jurisdictions have not adopted this legislative approach, at least partly motivated by a concern that the laws produce dramatic increases in unwarranted reports, which, it is argued, lead to investigations which infringe on people’s privacy, cause trauma to innocent parents and families, and divert scarce government resources from deserving cases. The primary purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which opposition to mandatory reporting laws is valid based on the claim that the laws produce ‘overreporting’. The first part of this paper revisits the original mandatory reporting laws, discusses their development into various current forms, explains their relationship with policy and common law reporting obligations, and situates them in the context of their place in modern child protection systems. This part of the paper shows that in general, contemporary reporting laws have expanded far beyond their original conceptualisation, but that there is also now a deeper understanding of the nature, incidence, timing and effects of different types of severe maltreatment, an awareness that the real incidence of maltreatment is far higher than that officially recorded, and that there is strong evidence showing the majority of identified cases of severe maltreatment are the result of reports by mandated reporters. The second part of this paper discusses the apparent effect of mandatory reporting laws on ‘overreporting’ by referring to Australian government data about reporting patterns and outcomes, with a particular focus on New South Wales. It will be seen that raw descriptive data about report numbers and outcomes appear to show that reporting laws produce both desirable consequences (identification of severe cases) and problematic consequences (increased numbers of unsubstantiated reports). Yet, to explore the extent to which the data supports the overreporting claim, and because numbers of unsubstantiated reports alone cannot demonstrate overreporting, this part of the paper asks further questions of the data. Who makes reports, about which maltreatment types, and what are the outcomes of those reports? What is the nature of these reports; for example, to what extent are multiple numbers of reports made about the same child? What meaning can be attached to an ‘unsubstantiated’ report, and can such reports be used to show flaws in reporting effectiveness and problems in reporting laws? It will be suggested that available evidence from Australia is not sufficiently detailed or strong to demonstrate the overreporting claim. However, it is also apparent that, whether adopting an approach based on public health and or other principles, much better evidence about reporting needs to be collected and analyzed. As well, more nuanced research needs to be conducted to identify what can reasonably be said to constitute ‘overreports’, and efforts must be made to minimize unsatisfactory reporting practice, informed by the relevant jurisdiction’s context and aims. It is also concluded that, depending on the jurisdiction, the available data may provide useful indicators of positive, negative and unanticipated effects of specific components of the laws, and of the strengths, weaknesses and needs of the child protection system.

Perspectives on Projects

Modern project management had its genesis in the field of operations research in the late 1940s, but today it is a much more diverse subject. It has evolved and developed a much wider range of methods, techniques, and skills that the project manager can draw upon. Not all these skills are relevant to every project, but an assortment of them will be relevant to most. This book aims to describe for students, researchers and managers the full range of skills that project managers can use to develop their methodologies.The authors group the skills into nine perspectives, representing nine schools of project management research and theory. By attaching a metaphor to each of these perspectives, students, researchers and managers are better able to understand each approach and decide whether it is best suited to the development of a strategy for managing their project. Perspectives on Projects builds upon the various theoretical orientations that the field of project management has developed. Featuring several case studies, drawn from a variety of settings, to illustrate how the different schools can provide different perspectives on projects, this book is an ideal text for anyone involved in project management.

Time limitations in NAPLAN numeracy tests

The article discusses evidence that time prevented many students from showing what they could do in the 2010 Year 7 and 9 NAPLAN numeracy tests. In addition to analysing the available data, the article discusses some NAPLAN numeracy questions that contribute to this problem. It is suggested that schools should investigate whether time limitation is a problem for their own students. The article discusses the implications of these findings for teachers preparing students for NAPLAN tests and for the developers of the tests.

Community psychology : panic or panacea

The growing social upheaval and intensifying tensions in South Africa have by their very nature evoked concern and panic among mental health professionals. In an attempt to alleviate the concomittant anxiety and appear to be more responsive to the majority, many psychologists have boarded the community psychology wagon to cross the great divide between the comfortable consultancy room and the masses. In assessing whether community psychology is the appropriate vehicle for crossing the rubicon, we will start with an overview of different models of community psychology focusing on their different conceptualizations of mental illness and how each model sees the role of the psychologist in the context of psycho-social change.

Property, planning and purpose : legal concerns facing broadband rollout in Australia

The Australian government, and opposition, are committed to facilitating high-speed broadband provision. In April 2009 the (then) Labor government announced a proposal to facilitate provision by mandating “…the use of fibre optic infrastructure … in greenfield estates ….” Separately, the installation of (usually overhead) cables commenced in select brownfield areas throughout Australia. In the lead up to the 2010 federal election, the broadband policy focus of the (then) federal opposition was to enabling private investment rather than direct investment by government itself. High-speed broadband is essential for Australia’s economic future. Whether implementation is undertaken by government, government owned corporations or private investors, will impact on the processes to be followed. Who does what, also will determine the rights available to land owners. The next stage, of necessity, will involve the establishment of procedures to require the retrofitting of existing urban environments. This clearly will have major property, property rights and valuation impacts. As Horan (2000) observed “…preserving... unique characteristics … of…regions requires a compromise between economic ambitions and social, cultural, and environmental values”. The uncertainty following the federal election, and the influence of independants with individual agendas; presents unique challenges for broadband implementation. This paper seeks to identify the processes to be followed by various potential broadband investors as they work to establish a ubiquitous network. It overviews current legislative regimes and examines concerns raised by stakeholders in various government reviews. It concludes by plotting a clear way forward to the future, with particular regard to property rights and usage.

Critical thinking about the uses of research

One of the promises of New Labour was that government policy would be grounded in 'evidence based research'. In recent years some academics have come to question whether the government has delivered on this promise. Professors Reece Walters and Tim Hope offer two contributions to this debate, arguing that rather than the 'evidence base', it is political considerations that govern the commissioning, production and dissemination of Home Office research. As the first monograph in our 'Evidence based policy series' Critical thinking about the uses of research carries a thought provoking set of arguments.

Serious firearm offending in New Zealand : issues for gun controls and public safety

Reducing or preventing the misuse of firearms (whether criminal, suicidal or accidental) is central to gun controls policy. In June 1997 the New Zealand Government received the recommendations of the Review of Firearms Control, an independent inquiry commissioned by the Minister of Police and chaired by Sir Thomas Thorp.The Review comprehensively examined several firearm-related issues, including the nature and extent of serious firearm offending in New Zealand. The research presented in this article was commissioned by the Review. Based on a population of 709 offences for the 12 months ending 30 June 1996, this study provides an analysis of serious firearm offending in New Zealand and discusses the implications of these findings for gun controls policy.

Evaluation of the Airdrie Sheriff Youth Court Pilot

A pilot Youth Court was introduced at Airdrie Sheriff Court in June 2004. Its objectives were to: • reduce the frequency and seriousness of re-offending by 16 and 17 year old offenders, particularly persistent offenders (and some 15 year olds who are referred to the court); • promote the social inclusion, citizenship and personal responsibility of these young offenders while maximising their potential; • establish fast track procedures for those young persons appearing before the Youth Court; • enhance community safety, by reducing the harm caused to individual victims of crime and providing respite to those communities which are experiencing high levels of crime; and • test the viability and usefulness of a Youth Court using existing legislation and to demonstrate whether legislative and practical improvements might be appropriate. An evaluation of the pilot commissioned by the Scottish Executive found that it appeared in many respects to be working well. It was a tightly run court that dealt with a heavy volume of business. With its fast track procedures and additional resources it was regarded as a model to be aspired to in all summary court business. Whether a dedicated Youth Court was required or whether procedural improvements would have been possible in the absence of dedicated resources and personnel was, however, more difficult to assess. Two issues in particular required further attention. First, consideration needed to be given to whether the Youth Court should be more explicitly youth focused and what this might entail. Second, greater clarity was required regarding for whom the Youth Court was intended to avoid the risk of net-widening and its consequences for young people.

Evaluation of the Hamilton Youth Court Pilot 2003-2005

Pilot Youth Courts were introduced at Hamilton Sheriff Court in June 2003 and at Airdrie Sheriff Court in June 2004. Although introduced as one of a number of measures aimed at responding more effectively to youth crime (including young people dealt with through the Children’s Hearings System), the Youth Courts were intended for young people who would otherwise have been dealt with in the adult Sheriff Summary Court. The objectives of the pilot Youth Courts were to: • reduce the frequency and seriousness of re-offending by 16 and 17 year old offenders, particularly persistent offenders (and some 15 year olds who are referred to the court); • promote the social inclusion, citizenship and personal responsibility of these young offenders while maximising their potential; • establish fast track procedures for those young persons appearing before the Youth Court; • enhance community safety, by reducing the harm caused to individual victims of crime and providing respite to those communities which are experiencing high levels of crime; and • test the viability and usefulness of a Youth Court using existing legislation and to demonstrate whether legislative and practical improvements might be appropriate. Evaluation of the Hamilton and Airdrie Sheriff Youth Court pilots suggested that they had been successful in meeting the objectives set for them by the Youth Court Feasibility Group. Both were tightly run courts that dealt with a heavy volume of business. The particular strengths of the Youth Court model over previous arrangements included the fast-tracking of young people to and through the court, the reduction in trials, the availability of a wider range of resources and services for young people and ongoing judicial review. The successful operation of the pilot Youth Courts was dependent upon effective teamwork among the relevant agencies and professionals concerned. Good information sharing, liaison and communication appeared to exist across agencies and the procedures that were in place to facilitate the sharing of information seemed to be working well. This was also facilitated by the presence of dedicated staff within agencies, resulting in clear channels of communication, and in the opportunity provided by the multi-agency Implementation Groups to identify and address operational issues on an ongoing basis. However, whether Youth Courts are required in Scotland or whether procedural improvement were possible in the absence of dedicated resources and personnel was more difficult to assess. Two issues in particular required further attention. First, consideration needed to be given to whether the Youth Courts should be more explicitly youth focused and what this might entail. Second, greater clarity was required regarding for whom the Youth Courts were intended. This suggested the need for further discussion of Youth Court targeting and its potential consequences among the various agencies concerned.

Crime is in the air : air pollution and regulation in the UK

This latest briefing by Professor Reece Walters in the What is crime? series, draws attention to an area of harm that is often absent from criminological debate. He highlights the human costs of air pollution and failed attempts to adequately regulate and control such harm. Arguing for a cross disciplinary ‘eco-crime’ narrative, the author calls for greater understanding of the far-reaching consequences of air pollution which could set in train changes which may lead to a ‘more robust and meaningful system of justice’. Describing current arrangements in place to control and regulate air pollution, Walters draws attention to the lack of neutrality in current arrangements and the bias ‘towards the economic imperatives of free trade over and above the centrality of environmental protection’. While attention is often given to direct and individualised instances of ‘crime’, the serious consequences of air pollution are frequently neglected. The negative effects of pollution on health and well-being are often borne by people already experiencing a range of other disadvantages. In a global and national context, it is often the poor who are affected most. Ultimately, political and economic imperatives have historically helped to shape legal and regulatory regimes. Whether this is an inherent flaw in current systems or something that can be overcome in favour of dealing with more wide-ranging harms is an area that requires further discussion and debate.

Incentivising private health insurance through the income tax regime : Capitalising on behavioural models

The Australian income tax regime is generally regarded as a mechanism by which the Federal Government raises revenue, with much of the revenue raised used to support public spending programs. A prime example of this type of spending program is health care. However, a government may also decide that the private sector should provide a greater share of the nation's health care. To achieve such a policy it can bring about change through positive regulation, or it can use the taxation regime, via tax expenditures, not to raise revenue but to steer or influence individuals in its desired direction. When used for this purpose, tax expenditures steer taxpayers towards or away from certain behaviour by either imposing costs on, or providing benefits to them. Within the context of the health sector, the Australian Federal Government deploys social steering via the tax system, with the Medicare Levy Surcharge and the 30 percent Private Health Insurance Rebate intended to steer taxpayer behaviour towards the Government’s policy goal of increasing the amount of health provision through the private sector. These steering mechanisms are complemented by the ‘Lifetime Health Cover Initiative’. This article, through the lens of behavioural economics, considers the ways in which these assorted mechanisms might have been expected to operate and whether they encourage individuals to purchase private health insurance.

Human herpesvirus 8 load and progression of AIDS-related Kaposi sarcoma lesions

Introduction—Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) is necessary for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) to develop, but whether peripheral blood viral load is a marker of KS burden (total number of KS lesions), KS progression (the rate of eruption of new KS lesions), or both is unclear. We investigated these relationships in persons with AIDS. Methods—Newly diagnosed patients with AIDS-related KS attending Mulago Hospital, in Kampala, Uganda, were assessed for KS burden and progression by questionnaire and medical examination. Venous blood samples were taken for HHV8 load measurements by PCR. Associations were examined with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from logistic regression models and with t-tests. Results—Among 74 patients (59% men), median age was 34.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 28.5-41). HHV8 DNA was detected in 93% and quantified in 77% patients. Median virus load was 3.8 logs10/106 peripheral blood cells (IQR 3.4-5.0) and was higher in men than women (4.4 vs. 3.8 logs; p=0.04), in patients with faster (>20 lesions per year) than slower rate of KS lesion eruption (4.5 vs. 3.6 logs; p<0.001), and higher, but not significantly, among patients with more (>median [20] KS lesions) than fewer KS lesions (4.4 vs. 4.0 logs; p=0.16). HHV8 load was unrelated to CD4 lymphocyte count (p=0.23). Conclusions—We show significant association of HHV8 load in peripheral blood with rate of eruption of KS lesions, but not with total lesion count. Our results suggest that viral load increases concurrently with development of new KS lesions.

The implementation of performance based planning in Queensland under the integrated planning act 1997 : an evaluation of perceptions and planning schemes

Performance based planning is a form of planning regulation that is not well understood and the theoretical advantages of this type of planning are rarely achieved in practice. Normatively, this type of regulation relies on performance standards that are quantifiable and technically based which are designed to manage the effects of development, where performance standards provide certainty in respect of the level of performance and the means of achievement is flexible. Few empirical studies have attempted to examine how performance based planning has been conceptualised and implemented in practice. Existing literature is predominately anecdotal and consultant based (Baker et al. 2006) and has not sought to quantitatively examine how land use has been managed or determine how context influences implementation. The Integrated Planning Act 1997 (IPA) operated as Queensland’s principal planning legislation between March 1998 and December 2009. The IPA prevented Local Governments from prohibiting development or use and the term zone was absent from the legislation. While the IPA did not use the term performance based planning, the system is widely considered to be performance based in practice (e.g. Baker et al. 2006; Steele 2009a, 2009b). However, the degree to which the IPA and the planning system in Queensland is performance based is debated (e.g. Yearbury 1998; England 2004). Four research questions guided the research framework using Queensland as the case study. The questions sought to: determine if there is a common understanding of performance based planning; identify how performance based planning was expressed under the IPA; understand how performance based planning was implemented in plans; and explore the experiences of participants in the planning system. The research developed a performance adoption spectrum. The spectrum describes how performance based planning is implemented, ranging between pure and hybrid interpretations. An ex-post evaluation of seventeen IPA plans sought to determine plan performativity within the conceptual spectrum. Land use was examined from the procedural dimension of performance (Assessment Tables) and the substantive dimension of performance (Codes). A documentary analysis and forty one interviews supplemented the research. The analytical framework considered how context influenced performance based planning, including whether: the location of the local government affected land use management techniques; temporal variation in implementation exists; plan-making guidelines affected implementation; different perceptions of the concept exist; this type of planning applies to a range of spatial scales. Outcomes were viewed as the medium for determining the acceptability of development in Queensland, a significant departure from pure approaches found in the United States. Interviews highlighted the absence of plan-making direction in the IPA, which contributed to the confusion about the intended direction of the planning system and the myth that the IPA would guarantee a performance based system. A hybridised form of performance based planning evolved in Queensland which was dependent on prescriptive land use zones and specification of land use type, with some local governments going to extreme lengths to discourage certain activities in a predetermined manner. Context had varying degrees of influence on plan-making methods. Decision-making was found to be inconsistent and the system created a range of unforeseen consequences including difficulties associated with land valuation, increased development speculation, and the role of planners in court was found to be less critical than in the previous planning system.