Do U.S. and Colombian macro factors improve the forecasting ability of unrestricted VAR models of the local term structure of interest rate?

Este estudio empírico compara la capacidad de los modelos Vectores auto-regresivos (VAR) sin restricciones para predecir la estructura temporal de las tasas de interés en Colombia -- Se comparan modelos VAR simples con modelos VAR aumentados con factores macroeconómicos y financieros colombianos y estadounidenses -- Encontramos que la inclusión de la información de los precios del petróleo, el riesgo de crédito de Colombia y un indicador internacional de la aversión al riesgo mejora la capacidad de predicción fuera de la muestra de los modelos VAR sin restricciones para vencimientos de corto plazo con frecuencia mensual -- Para vencimientos de mediano y largo plazo los modelos sin variables macroeconómicas presentan mejores pronósticos sugiriendo que las curvas de rendimiento de mediano y largo plazo ya incluyen toda la información significativa para pronosticarlos -- Este hallazgo tiene implicaciones importantes para los administradores de portafolios, participantes del mercado y responsables de las políticas

What Does Value Matter? The Interest-Relational Theory of the Semantics and Metaphysics of Value

Value and reasons for action are often cited by rationalists and moral realists as providing a desire-independent foundation for normativity. Those maintaining instead that normativity is dependent upon motivation often deny that anything called '"value" or "reasons" exists. According to the interest-relational theory, something has value relative to some perspective of desire just in case it satisfies those desires, and a consideration is a reason for some action just in case it indicates that something of value will be accomplished by that action. Value judgements therefore describe real properties of objects and actions, but have no normative significance independent of desires. It is argued that only the interest-relational theory can account for the practical significance of value and reasons for action. Against the Kantian hypothesis of prescriptive rational norms, I attack the alleged instrumental norm or hypothetical imperative, showing that the normative force for taking the means to our ends is explicable in terms of our desire for the end, and not as a command of reason. This analysis also provides a solution to the puzzle concerning the connection between value judgement and motivation. While it is possible to hold value judgements without motivation, the connection is more than accidental. This is because value judgements are usually but not always made from the perspective of desires that actually motivate the speaker. In the normal case judgement entails motivation. But often we conversationally borrow external perspectives of desire, and subsequent judgements do not entail motivation. This analysis drives a critique of a common practice as a misuse of normative language. The "absolutist" attempts to use and, as philosopher, analyze normative language in such a way as to justify the imposition of certain interests over others. But these uses and analyses are incoherent - in denying relativity to particular desires they conflict with the actual meaning of these utterances, which is always indexed to some particular set of desires.

Community interest company case study

Case study on developing a digital strategy to support community inclusion and employability

Investigating the role of N-WASP in the development of colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cancer in Europe, with the second highest mortality rate. Although prognosis is improving, survival rates remain poor for those presenting with the most advanced stages of the disease. There is therefore a need for improved early diagnosis and thus a greater understanding of the early stages of the development of colorectal tumours is desirable. Additionally, as most deaths in colorectal cancer are due to advanced metastatic disease, it is of great interest to explore any potential mechanisms by which metastatic disease can be inhibited. N-WASP is a ubiquitously expressed protein with multiple intracellular roles including actin regulation and maintaining stability of epithelial cell-cell junctions. Through its role as an actin regulator, it has been implicated in the processes of invasion and metastasis of multiple cancer types. Its role in the development and progression of colorectal cancer however has not been fully explored. This thesis will present a series of in vitro and in vivo studies that were carried out with the aim of answering the following questions: • Does N-Wasp have a role in normal intestinal homeostasis? • Does N-Wasp knockout affect the development of tumours in a mouse model of intestinal tumourigenesis? • Does N-Wasp knockout affect the invasive properties of intestinal cancer in vitro? • Does N-WASP correlate with prognosis or other indicators in human colorectal cancer TMAs? Findings from the in vivo experiments, using an inducible, gut-specific knockout model, have uncovered potential roles for N-Wasp in regulating differentiation and migration of intestinal epithelial cells. Although it had no effect in short term models of intestinal hyperproliferation, N-Wasp knockout increased tumour burden and decreased survival in an established in vivo model of intestinal tumourigenesis, in which there is heterozygous loss of Apc (Apcfl/+). No effect was seen on tumour development or survival when additional N-WASP knockout was introduced into a more rapid model, with heterozygous loss of Apc and mutation of Kras (Apcfl/+ KrasG12D/+). N-WASP expression in human colorectal cancer was assessed using immunohistochemical staining of two tissue microarrays. Low levels of N-WASP expression were found to be associated with presence of MMR deficiency. There was no statistically significant difference in overall or cancer specific survival based on N-WASP expression. Collectively, the data presented here suggest a previously unreported role for N-WASP in regulation of intestinal epithelial differentiation and indicate that it may act as a tumour suppressor against development of benign precursor lesions of colorectal cancer. Further research is warranted to delineate the mechanisms underlying these processes.

A generic method of engagement to elicit regional coastal management options

Stakeholder engagement is important for successful management of natural resources, both to make effective decisions and to obtain support. However, in the context of coastal management, questions remain unanswered on how to effectively link decisions made at the catchment level with objectives for marine biodiversity and fisheries productivity. Moreover, there is much uncertainty on how to best elicit community input in a rigorous manner that supports management decisions. A decision support process is described that uses the adaptive management loop as its basis to elicit management objectives, priorities and management options using two case studies in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The approach described is then generalised for international interest. A hierarchical engagement model of local stakeholders, regional and senior managers is used. The result is a semi-quantitative generic elicitation framework that ultimately provides a prioritised list of management options in the context of clearly articulated management objectives that has widespread application for coastal communities worldwide. The case studies show that demand for local input and regional management is high, but local influences affect the relative success of both engagement processes and uptake by managers. Differences between case study outcomes highlight the importance of discussing objectives prior to suggesting management actions, and avoiding or minimising conflicts at the early stages of the process. Strong contributors to success are a) the provision of local information to the community group, and b) the early inclusion of senior managers and influencers in the group to ensure the intellectual and time investment is not compromised at the final stages of the process. The project has uncovered a conundrum in the significant gap between the way managers perceive their management actions and outcomes, and community's perception of the effectiveness (and wisdom) of these same management actions.

Polymyalgia Rheumatica (PMR) Special Interest Group at OMERACT 11: outcomes of importance for patients with PMR

We worked toward developing a core outcome set for clinical research studies in polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) by conducting (1) patient consultations using modified nominal group technique; (2) a systematic literature review of outcome measures in PMR; (3) a pilot observational study of patients presenting with untreated PMR, and further discussion with patient research partners; and (4) a qualitative focus group study of patients with PMR on the meaning of stiffness, using thematic analysis. (1) Consultations included 104 patients at 4 centers. Symptoms of PMR included pain, stiffness, fatigue, and sleep disturbance. Function, anxiety, and depression were also often mentioned. Participants expressed concerns about diagnostic delay, adverse effects of glucocorticoids, and fear of relapse. (2) In the systematic review, outcome measures previously used for PMR include pain visual analog scores (VAS), morning stiffness, blood markers, function, and quality of life; standardized effect sizes posttreatment were large. (3) Findings from the observational study indicated that asking about symptom severity at 7 AM, or "on waking," appeared more relevant to disease activity than asking about symptom severity "now" (which depended on the time of assessment). (4) Preliminary results were presented from the focus group qualitative study, encompassing broad themes of stiffness, pain, and the effect of PMR on patients' lives. It was concluded that further validation work is required before a core outcome set in PMR can be recommended. Nevertheless, the large standardized effect sizes suggest that pain VAS is likely to be satisfactory as a primary outcome measure for assessing response to initial therapy of PMR. Dissection of between-patient heterogeneity in the subsequent treatment course may require attention to comorbidity as a potential confounding factor.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Interest Representation as a Clash of Unequal Allies

Organized interests do not have direct control over the fate of their policy agendas in Congress. They cannot introduce bills, vote on legislation, or serve on House committees. If organized interests want to achieve virtually any of their legislative goals they must rely on and work through members of Congress. As an interest group seeks to move its policy agenda forward in Congress, then, one of the most important challenges it faces is the recruitment of effective legislative allies. Legislative allies are members of Congress who “share the same policy objective as the group” and who use their limited time and resources to advocate for the group’s policy needs (Hall and Deardorff 2006, 76). For all the financial resources that a group can bring to bear as it competes with other interests to win policy outcomes, it will be ineffective without the help of members of Congress that are willing to expend their time and effort to advocate for its policy positions (Bauer, Pool, and Dexter 1965; Baumgartner and Leech 1998b; Hall and Wayman 1990; Hall and Deardorff 2006; Hojnacki and Kimball 1998, 1999). Given the importance of legislative allies to interest group success, are some organized interests better able to recruit legislative allies than others? This question has received little attention in the literature. This dissertation offers an original theoretical framework describing both when we should expect some types of interests to generate more legislative allies than others and how interests vary in their effectiveness at mobilizing these allies toward effective legislative advocacy. It then tests these theoretical expectations on variation in group representation during the stage in the legislative process that many scholars have argued is crucial to policy influence, interest representation on legislative committees. The dissertation uncovers pervasive evidence that interests with a presence across more congressional districts stand a better chance of having legislative allies on their key committees. It also reveals that interests with greater amounts of leverage over jobs and economic investment will be better positioned to win more allies on key committees. In addition, interests with a policy agenda that closely overlaps with the jurisdiction of just one committee in Congress are more likely to have legislative allies on their key committees than are interests that have a policy agenda divided across many committee jurisdictions. In short, how groups are distributed across districts, the leverage that interests have over local jobs and economic investment, and how committee jurisdictions align with their policy goals affects their influence in Congress.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND UNIVERSALITY OF READING: CONFLICT OF INTEREST?

It seeks to clarify the issue about the relationship between intellectual property and universality of reading, to understand if it exists or not a conflict of interest. From a synchronic axis crossing, historical, with a diachronic axis, of philosophical: is tracked to explain the deep forces that have shaped the problem arises here. It also explains the legal issue of copyright and property which is closely related to the issue treated here. From all this it follows that underlie the problem of intellectual property is the construction of the Western historical figure of subjectivity, which has led to the role of "author." The author who is credited with authorship of a speech only (work) is a product of social discourse situation that historically has been obscured what has contributed the legal apparatus that protects copyright. What has led to the establishment of an antagonism to the universality of reading. In this paper therefore has not sought to respond to the problem but to make it clear to potential solutions.

Map of New York, places of interest and general information concerning the city /

Shows subways, elevated lines, and streetcar lines in Manhattan south of 120th Street.

Variation, correlation and heritability of interest characters for selection of African eggplant

The eggplant ( Solanum aethiopicum ) is the species of the Solanum genus, whose geographical distribution is broadest. It is grown throughout tropical Africa, and includes three groups of cultivars commonly called African or indigenous eggplant. Kumba group or “bitter eggplant” is an important Solanaceous vegetable crop in Burkina Faso. The objective of this study was to determine genetic variability, strength of association and level of heritability among agronomic interest traits. Phenotypic and genotypic variations and heritability of 14 traits were estimated in 61 accessions at Institut de Développement Rural (IDR), Gampela in Burkina Faso. High phenotypic and genotypic coefficients of variation were observed for fruit diameter, number of seeds per fruit, fruit weight, leaf blade length and width, and height at flowering. In addition, genetic and phenotypic variances were high for the number of seed, fruit weight, plant height at flowering and days to 50% flowering. High heritability estimates were recorded for all traits. Fruit weight showed a positive association with fruit diameter and thickness. The fifty percent flowering cycle registered positive correlations with plant height and fruit diameter. Fruit number showed a negative association with fruit weight and diameter, and 50% flowering cyle.

Radiation health and safety : issues of congressional interest /

Bibliography: p. 17-19.

Conflicts of interest in dermatology

Conflicts of interest exist in dermatology when professional judgement concerning a primary interest, such as research validity, may be influenced by a secondary interest, such as financial gain from a for-profit organization. Conflict of interest is a condition and not a behaviour, although there is clear evidence that gifts influence behaviour. Little has been written about conflicts of interest in dermatology. This series of papers raises awareness of the subject by exploring it in greater depth from the perspective of a dermatology researcher, an industry researcher, a dermatology journal editor, a health services researcher and a patient representative. Collectively, they illustrate the many ways in which conflicts can pervade the world of dermatology publications and patient support group activities.