Urban network travel time estimation from stop-line loop detector data and signal controller data

This paper presents a model to estimate travel time using cumulative plots. Three different cases considered are i) case-Det, for only detector data; ii) case-DetSig, for detector data and signal controller data and iii) case-DetSigSFR: for detector data, signal controller data and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different detection intervals is evaluated. It is observed that detection interval is not critical if signal timings are available. Comparable accuracy can be obtained from larger detection interval with signal timings or from shorter detection interval without signal timings. The performance for case-DetSig and for case-DetSigSFR is consistent with accuracy generally more than 95% whereas, case-Det is highly sensitive to the signal phases in the detection interval and its performance is uncertain if detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycles.

Optimal allocation and sizing of capacitors to minimize the transmission line loss and to improve the voltage profile

To allocate and size capacitors in a distribution system, an optimization algorithm, called Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO), is employed in this paper. The objective is to minimize the transmission line loss cost plus capacitors cost. During the optimization procedure, the bus voltage, the feeder current and the reactive power flowing back to the source side should be maintained within standard levels. To validate the proposed method, the semi-urban distribution system that is connected to bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) is used. This 37-bus distribution system has 22 loads being located in the secondary side of a distribution substation (33/11 kV). Reducing the transmission line loss in a standard system, in which the transmission line loss consists of only about 6.6 percent of total power, the capabilities of the proposed technique are seen to be validated.

Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

Predicting project performance through neural networks

Successful project delivery of construction projects depends on many factors. With regard to the construction of a facility, selecting a competent contractor for the job is paramount. As such, various approaches have been advanced to facilitate tender award decisions. Essentially, this type of decision involves the prediction of a bidderÕs performance based on information available at the tender stage. A neural network based prediction model was developed and presented in this paper. Project data for the study were obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department. Information from the tender reports was used as input variables and performance records of the successful bidder during construction were used as output variables. It was found that the networks for the prediction of performance scores for Works gave the highest hit rate. In addition, the two most sensitive input variables toward such prediction are ‘‘Difference between Estimate’’ and ‘‘Difference between the next closest bid’’. Both input variables are price related, thus suggesting the importance of tender sufficiency for the assurance of quality production.

Optimizing construction planning schedules by virtual prototyping enabled resource analysis

The inherent uncertainty and complexity of construction work make construction planning a particularly difficult task for project managers due to the need to anticipate and visualize likely future events. Conventional computer-assisted technology can help but is often limited to the constructability issues involved. Virtual prototyping, however, offers an improved method through the visualization of construction activities by computer simulation — enabling a range of ‘what-if’ questions to be asked and their implications on the total project to be investigated. This paper describes the use of virtual prototyping to optimize construction planning schedules by analyzing resource allocation and planning with integrated construction models, resource models, construction planning schedules and site-layout plans. A real-life case study is presented that demonstrates the use of a virtual prototyping enabled resource analysis to reallocate space, logistic on access road and arrange tower cranes to achieve a 6-day floor construction cycle.

Planning for smart urban ecosystems : information technology applications for capacity building in environmental decision making

Since the industrial revolution, our world has experienced rapid and unplanned industrialization and urbanization. As a result, we have had to cope with serious environmental challenges. In this context, an explanation of how smart urban ecosystems can emerge, gains a crucial importance. Capacity building and community involvement have always been key issues in achieving sustainable development and enhancing urban ecosystems. By considering these, this paper looks at new approaches to increase public awareness of environmental decision making. This paper will discuss the role of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), particularly Webbased Geographic Information Systems (Web-based GIS) as spatial decision support systems to aid public participatory environmental decision making. The paper also explores the potential and constraints of these webbased tools for collaborative decision making.