An evaluation of new parsimony-based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim  Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location  World-wide.Methods  Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results  Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions  By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.

Visual functions in the healthy and schizophrenic brain : from stimulus control to illusory perceptions using electrical neuroimaging

ABSTRACT (FRENCH)Ce travail de thèse basé sur le système visuel chez les sujets sains et chez les patients schizophrènes, s'articule autour de trois articles scientifiques publiés ou en cours de publication. Ces articles traitent des sujets suivants : le premier article présente une nouvelle méthode de traitement des composantes physiques des stimuli (luminance et fréquence spatiale). Le second article montre, à l'aide d'analyses de données EEG, un déficit de la voie magnocellulaire dans le traitement visuel des illusions chez les patients schizophrènes. Ceci est démontré par l'absence de modulation de la composante PI chez les patients schizophrènes contrairement aux sujets sains. Cette absence est induite par des stimuli de type illusion Kanizsa de différentes excentricités. Finalement, le troisième article, également à l'aide de méthodes de neuroimagerie électrique (EEG), montre que le traitement des contours illusoires se trouve dans le complexe latéro-occipital (LOC), à l'aide d'illusion « misaligned gratings ». De plus il révèle que les activités démontrées précédemment dans les aires visuelles primaires sont dues à des inférences « top- down ».Afin de permettre la compréhension de ces trois articles, l'introduction de ce manuscrit présente les concepts essentiels. De plus des méthodes d'analyses de temps-fréquence sont présentées. L'introduction est divisée en quatre parties : la première présente le système visuel depuis les cellules retino-corticales aux deux voix du traitement de l'information en passant par les régions composant le système visuel. La deuxième partie présente la schizophrénie par son diagnostic, ces déficits de bas niveau de traitement des stimuli visuel et ces déficits cognitifs. La troisième partie présente le traitement des contours illusoires et les trois modèles utilisés dans le dernier article. Finalement, les méthodes de traitement des données EEG seront explicitées, y compris les méthodes de temps-fréquences.Les résultats des trois articles sont présentés dans le chapitre éponyme (du même nom). De plus ce chapitre comprendra les résultats obtenus à l'aide des méthodes de temps-fréquenceFinalement, la discussion sera orientée selon trois axes : les méthodes de temps-fréquence ainsi qu'une proposition de traitement de ces données par une méthode statistique indépendante de la référence. La discussion du premier article en montrera la qualité du traitement de ces stimuli. La discussion des deux articles neurophysiologiques, proposera de nouvelles d'expériences afin d'affiner les résultats actuels sur les déficits des schizophrènes. Ceci pourrait permettre d'établir un marqueur biologique fiable de la schizophrénie.ABSTRACT (ENGLISH)This thesis focuses on the visual system in healthy subjects and schizophrenic patients. To address this research, advanced methods of analysis of electroencephalographic (EEG) data were used and developed. This manuscript is comprised of three scientific articles. The first article showed a novel method to control the physical features of visual stimuli (luminance and spatial frequencies). The second article showed, using electrical neuroimaging of EEG, a deficit in spatial processing associated with the dorsal pathway in chronic schizophrenic patients. This deficit was elicited by an absent modulation of the PI component in terms of response strength and topography as well as source estimations. This deficit was orthogonal to the preserved ability to process Kanizsa-type illusory contours. Finally, the third article resolved ongoing debates concerning the neural mechanism mediating illusory contour sensitivity by using electrical neuroimaging to show that the first differentiation of illusory contour presence vs. absence is localized within the lateral occipital complex. This effect was subsequent to modulations due to the orientation of misaligned grating stimuli. Collectively, these results support a model where effects in V1/V2 are mediated by "top-down" modulation from the LOC.To understand these three articles, the Introduction of this thesis presents the major concepts used in these articles. Additionally, a section is devoted to time-frequency analysis methods not presented in the articles themselves. The introduction is divided in four parts. The first part presents three aspects of the visual system: cellular, regional, and its functional interactions. The second part presents an overview of schizophrenia and its sensoiy-cognitive deficits. The third part presents an overview of illusory contour processing and the three models examined in the third article. Finally, advanced analysis methods for EEG are presented, including time- frequency methodology.The Introduction is followed by a synopsis of the main results in the articles as well as those obtained from the time-frequency analyses.Finally, the Discussion chapter is divided along three axes. The first axis discusses the time frequency analysis and proposes a novel statistical approach that is independent of the reference. The second axis contextualizes the first article and discusses the quality of the stimulus control and direction for further improvements. Finally, both neurophysiologic articles are contextualized by proposing future experiments and hypotheses that may serve to improve our understanding of schizophrenia on the one hand and visual functions more generally.

Outcome after surgical treatment of symptomatic delayed unions and nonunions of midshaft clavicle fractures

Introduction: Nonoperative treatment of displaced midshaft clavicle fractures is associated with higher nonunion rate than previously reported. Moreover, its occurrence can compromise shoulder function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcome of surgical treatment of symptomatic clavicle midshaft delayed and nonunion. Methods: Between 1999 and 2008, 19 clavicle delayed unions and nonunions were treated by open reduction and reconstructive plate fixation with augmentation by autologous bone graft. Iliac bone graft was used in 15 atrophic cases, and graft from the callus was used in 4 hypertrophic nonunions. There were 14 men and 5 women, with an average age of 41 years (range, 19 to 59 years) at time of surgery. No patient had undergone a previous surgery and all complained of shoulder pain. Delayed unions and nonunions were defined as non-healing after 3 and 6 months respectively. The mean time to surgery was 8 months (range, 4 to 23 months). All patients were pre and postoperatively clinically evaluated and imaged with standard radiographs until complete healing. Results: After a mean time of 3 months (range, 2 to 7 months) all fractures were completely healed. All patients reported full range of motion at time of last follow-up. Nine patients (47%) reported slight shoulder pain but all returned to their previous professional activities after a mean time of 3 months (range, 1 to 8 months). We reported 12 (63%) minor complications. There were 6 (32%) plate-related discomforts which resolved after hardware removal, two (11%) scar numbness, two (11%) adhesive capsulitis with spontaneous complete recovery, and two (11%) AC-joint pain treated successfully with local corticosteroids injection. Conclusion: Surgical treatment of delayed unions and nonunions of midshaft clavicle fractures yields satisfactory results and a high union rate. However, 50% of the patients may still complain of slight residual shoulder pain.

Profile order and time-dependent artifacts in contrast-enhanced coronary MR angiography at 3T: origin and prevention.

To enhance the clinical value of coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), high-relaxivity contrast agents have recently been used at 3T. Here we examine a uniform bilateral shadowing artifact observed along the coronary arteries in MRA images collected using such a contrast agent. Simulations were performed to characterize this artifact, including its origin, to determine how best to mitigate this effect, and to optimize a data acquisition/injection scheme. An intraluminal contrast agent concentration model was used to simulate various acquisition strategies with two profile orders for a slow-infusion of a high-relaxivity contrast agent. Filtering effects from temporally variable weighting in k-space are prominent when a centric, radial (CR) profile order is applied during contrast infusion, resulting in decreased signal enhancement and underestimation of vessel width, while both pre- and postinfusion steady-state acquisitions result in overestimation of the vessel width. Acquisition during the brief postinfusion steady-state produces the greatest signal enhancement and minimizes k-space filtering artifacts.

Relationship between time of day and periprocedural myocardial infarction after elective angioplasty.

Objectives: To test if the time of day significantly influences the occurrence of type 4A myocardial infarction in elective patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Background: Recent studies have suggested an influence of circadian rhythms on myocardial infarction size and mortality among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction. The aim of the study is to investigate whether periprocedural myocardial infarction (PMI) is influenced by the time of day in elective patients undergoing PCI. Methods: All consecutive patients undergoing elective PCI between 2007 and 2011 at our institutions with known post-interventional troponin were retrospectively included. Patients (n = 1021) were divided into two groups according to the starting time of the PCI: the morning group (n = 651) between 07:00 and 11:59, and the afternoon group (n = 370) between 12:00 and 18:59. Baseline and procedural characteristics as well as clinical outcome defined as the occurrence of PMI were compared between groups. In order to limit selection bias, all analyses were equally performed in 308 pairs using propensity score (PS) matching. Results: In the overall population, the rate of PMI was statistically lower in the morning group compared to the afternoon group (20% vs. 30%, p < 0.001). This difference remained statistically significant after PS-matching (21% vs. 29%, p = 0.03). Multivariate analysis shows that being treated in the afternoon independently increases the risk for PMI with an odds ratio of 2.0 (95%CI: 1.1-3.4; p = 0.02). Conclusions: This observational PS-matched study suggests that the timing of an elective PCI influences the rate of PMI.

Surface deterioration of dental materials after simulated toothbrushing in relation to brushing time and load.

OBJECTIVES: (1) To evaluate the changes in surface roughness and gloss after simulated toothbrushing of 9 composite materials and 2 ceramic materials in relation to brushing time and load in vitro; (2) to assess the relationship between surface gloss and surface roughness. METHODS: Eight flat specimens of composite materials (microfilled: Adoro, Filtek Supreme, Heliomolar; microhybrid: Four Seasons, Tetric EvoCeram; hybrid: Compoglass F, Targis, Tetric Ceram; macrohybrid: Grandio), two ceramic materials (IPS d.SIGN and IPS Empress polished) were fabricated according to the manufacturer's instructions and optimally polished with up to 4000 grit SiC. The specimens were subjected to a toothbrushing (TB) simulation device (Willytec) with rotating movements, toothpaste slurry and at three different loads (100g/250g/350g). At hourly intervals from 1h to 10h TB, mean surface roughness Ra was measured with an optical sensor and the surface gloss (Gl) with a glossmeter. Statistical analysis was performed for log-transformed Ra data applying two-way ANOVA to evaluate the interaction between load and material and load and brushing time. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between material and load as well as between load and brushing time (p<0.0001). The microhybrid and hybrid materials demonstrated more surface deterioration with higher loads, whereas with the microfilled resins Heliomolar and Adoro it was vice versa. For ceramic materials, no or little deterioration was observed over time and independent of the load. The ceramic materials and 3 of the composite materials (roughness) showed no further deterioration after 5h of toothbrushing. Mean surface gloss was the parameter which discriminated best between the materials, followed by mean surface roughness Ra. There was a strong correlation between surface gloss and surface roughness for all the materials except the ceramics. The evaluation of the deterioration curves of individual specimens revealed a more or less synchronous course suspecting hinting specific external conditions and not showing the true variability in relation to the tested material. SIGNIFICANCE: The surface roughness and gloss of dental materials changes with brushing time and load and thus results in different material rankings. Apart from Grandio, the hybrid composite resins were more prone to surface changes than microfilled composites. The deterioration potential of a composite material can be quickly assessed by measuring surface gloss. For this purpose, a brushing time of 10h (=72,000 strokes) is needed. In further comparative studies, specimens of different materials should be tested in one series to estimate the true variability.

Strategies for sequential prediction of stationary time series

We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combinationof several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

Retinal thickening in HLA-B27 associated acute anterior uveitis: evolution with time and association with severity of inflammatory activity.

Purpose: To describe the evolution of retinal thickness in eyes affected with acute anterior uveitis (AAU) in the course of follow-up and to assess its correlation with severity of inflammatory activity in the anterior chamber. Methods: Design: Prospective, cohort study Setting: Institutional study Patient population: 72 eyes (affected and fellow eyes) of 36 patients Observation procedure: Patients were followed daily until beginning of resolution of inflammatory activity and weekly thereafter. Optical coherence tomography and laser flare photometry were performed at each visit. Treatment consisted of topical corticosteroids Main outcome measures: Retinal thickness of affected eyes, difference in retinal thickness between affected and fellow eyes and their evolution in time, association between maximal retinal thickness and initial laser flare photometry. Results: Difference in retinal thickness between affected and fellow eyes became significant on average seven days from baseline and remained so through-out follow-up (p<0.001). There was a steep increase in retinal thickness of affected eyes followed by a progressive decrease after reaching a peak value. Maximal difference in retinal thickness between affected and fellow eyes was observed between 17 and 25 days from baseline and exhibited a strong, positive correlation with initial laser flare photometry values (p=0.015). Conclusions: Retinal thickness in eyes affected with AAU presents a steep increase over 3 to 4 weeks and then gradually decreases. Severity of inflammation at baseline predicts the amount of retinal thickening in affected eyes. A characteristic pattern of temporal response of retinal anatomy to inflammatory stimuli seems to arise.

Improved nonparametric confidence intervals in time series regressions

Condence intervals in econometric time series regressions suffer fromnotorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependencein the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as isoften the case in empirical studies. This paper suggests using thestudentized block bootstrap and discusses practical issues, such as thechoice of the block size. A particular data-dependent method is proposedto automate the method. As a side note, it is pointed out that symmetricconfidence intervals are preferred over equal-tailed ones, since theyexhibit improved coverage accuracy. The improvements in small sampleperformance are supported by a simulation study.

Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs

This paper provides a method to estimate time varying coefficients structuralVARs which are non-recursive and potentially overidentified. The procedureallows for linear and non-linear restrictions on the parameters, maintainsthe multi-move structure of standard algorithms and can be used toestimate structural models with different identification restrictions. We studythe transmission of monetary policy shocks and compare the results with thoseobtained with traditional methods.

On the closed-form approximation of short-time random strike options

In this paper we propose a general technique to develop first and second order closed-form approximation formulas for short-time options withrandom strikes. Our method is based on Malliavin calculus techniques andallows us to obtain simple closed-form approximation formulas dependingon the derivative operator. The numerical analysis shows that these formulas are extremely accurate and improve some previous approaches ontwo-assets and three-assets spread options as Kirk's formula or the decomposition mehod presented in Alòs, Eydeland and Laurence (2011).

Myocardial infarct size and mortality depend on the time of day-a large multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Different studies have shown circadian variation of ischemic burden among patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI), but with controversial results. The aim of this study was to analyze circadian variation of myocardial infarction size and in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter registry. METHODS: This retrospective, registry-based study was based on data from AMIS Plus, a large multicenter Swiss registry of patients who suffered myocardial infarction between 1999 and 2013. Peak creatine kinase (CK) was used as a proxy measure for myocardial infarction size. Associations between peak CK, in-hospital mortality, and the time of day at symptom onset were modelled using polynomial-harmonic regression methods. RESULTS: 6,223 STEMI patients were admitted to 82 acute-care hospitals in Switzerland and treated with primary angioplasty within six hours of symptom onset. Only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with peak CK (p = 0.0001). The maximum average peak CK value (2,315 U/L) was for patients with symptom onset at 23:00, whereas the minimum average (2,017 U/L) was for onset at 11:00. The amplitude of variation was 298 U/L. In addition, no correlation was observed between ischemic time and circadian peak CK variation. Of the 6,223 patients, 223 (3.58%) died during index hospitalization. Remarkably, only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. The risk of death from STEMI was highest for patients with symptom onset at 00:00 and lowest for those with onset at 12:00. DISCUSSION: As a part of this first large study of STEMI patients treated with primary angioplasty in Swiss hospitals, investigations confirmed a circadian pattern to both peak CK and in-hospital mortality which were independent of total ischemic time. Accordingly, this study proposes that symptom onset time be incorporated as a prognosis factor in patients with myocardial infarction.

Late Onset Cystoid Macular Oedema Following Surgery for Radiation Induced Cataract in Patient With Retinoblastoma

Purpose: Cystoid macular oedema (CMO) is a very rare condition following cataract surgery in paediatric population. Nevertheless, we report a case series of patients with radiation induced cataract after retinoblastoma (Rb) treatment that underwent cataract surgery and developed subsequently late onset CMO. Methods: Between January 1984 and December 2009, 25 consecutive eyes (25 patients) with Rb presented with radiation induced cataract surgery at the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital. Sixteen eyes (16 patients) had prior radiation induced retinopathy and maculopathy (IRM). Out of these, 3 eyes (3 patients) developed CMO after cataract surgery. Results: One eye had Rb stage B, and 2 eyes had stage D International classification. All of them developed IRM following brachytherapy and/or external beam irradiation. Patients underwent phako-aspiration and in bag intraocular lens implantation after IRM had resolved. Mean age at cataract surgery was 10.7 ± 2.8 (SEM) (range 5-14) years old. Mean time between resolution of IRM and cataract surgery was 76.0 ± 27.2 (SEM) (range 24-116) months. Mean time of onset CMO after cataract surgery was 81.0 ± 34.4 (SEM) (range 13-124) months. There was no other underlying vascular or tractional factor for CMO development. All of them were treated with a combination of oral carbonic anhydrase inhibitor, topical steroid and topical non-steroid. Mean macular thickness pre-, during-, and post CMO were 134.0 ± 10.3, 298.0 ± 37.1, and 154.0 ± 4.0 (SEM) µm, respectively. Mean best corrected visual acuity pre-, during-, and post CMO were 0.31 ± 0.19, 0.46 ± 0.12, and 0.34 ± 0.18 (SEM) LogMAR, respectively. Mean time for CMO reabsorption was 17.0 ± 9.8 (SEM) months. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, CMO following paediatric cataract surgery is a very uncommon condition. Moreover, late onset CMO after phako-aspiration for radiation induced cataract in Rb patients has never been described. It is a rare complication but can be treated successfully.

Value and depreciation of mineral resources over the very long run: An empirical contrast of different methods

The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating thevalue and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico andVenezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of severalmethods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method andthe imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user costare not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenariosof closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, ascommonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restrictedscenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what isexpected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missingvariable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to therecommendations made based on these models.

Probabilistic maximal covering location-allocation models with constrained waiting time or queue length for congested systems

When dealing with the design of service networks, such as healthand EMS services, banking or distributed ticket selling services, thelocation of service centers has a strong influence on the congestion ateach of them, and consequently, on the quality of service. In this paper,several models are presented to consider service congestion. The firstmodel addresses the issue of the location of the least number of single--servercenters such that all the population is served within a standard distance,and nobody stands in line for a time longer than a given time--limit, or withmore than a predetermined number of other clients. We then formulateseveral maximal coverage models, with one or more servers per service center.A new heuristic is developed to solve the models and tested in a 30--nodesnetwork.