Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

Seismic Response Analysis of a Full-Scale Base-Isolated Structure via Measurements and Modeling

The full-scale base-isolated structure studied in this dissertation is the only base-isolated building in South Island of New Zealand. It sustained hundreds of earthquake ground motions from September 2010 and well into 2012. Several large earthquake responses were recorded in December 2011 by NEES@UCLA and by GeoNet recording station nearby Christchurch Women's Hospital. The primary focus of this dissertation is to advance the state-of-the art of the methods to evaluate performance of seismic-isolated structures and the effects of soil-structure interaction by developing new data processing methodologies to overcome current limitations and by implementing advanced numerical modeling in OpenSees for direct analysis of soil-structure interaction.

This dissertation presents a novel method for recovering force-displacement relations within the isolators of building structures with unknown nonlinearities from sparse seismic-response measurements of floor accelerations. The method requires only direct matrix calculations (factorizations and multiplications); no iterative trial-and-error methods are required. The method requires a mass matrix, or at least an estimate of the floor masses. A stiffness matrix may be used, but is not necessary. Essentially, the method operates on a matrix of incomplete measurements of floor accelerations. In the special case of complete floor measurements of systems with linear dynamics, real modes, and equal floor masses, the principal components of this matrix are the modal responses. In the more general case of partial measurements and nonlinear dynamics, the method extracts a number of linearly-dependent components from Hankel matrices of measured horizontal response accelerations, assembles these components row-wise and extracts principal components from the singular value decomposition of this large matrix of linearly-dependent components. These principal components are then interpolated between floors in a way that minimizes the curvature energy of the interpolation. This interpolation step can make use of a reduced-order stiffness matrix, a backward difference matrix or a central difference matrix. The measured and interpolated floor acceleration components at all floors are then assembled and multiplied by a mass matrix. The recovered in-service force-displacement relations are then incorporated into the OpenSees soil structure interaction model.

Numerical simulations of soil-structure interaction involving non-uniform soil behavior are conducted following the development of the complete soil-structure interaction model of Christchurch Women's Hospital in OpenSees. In these 2D OpenSees models, the superstructure is modeled as two-dimensional frames in short span and long span respectively. The lead rubber bearings are modeled as elastomeric bearing (Bouc Wen) elements. The soil underlying the concrete raft foundation is modeled with linear elastic plane strain quadrilateral element. The non-uniformity of the soil profile is incorporated by extraction and interpolation of shear wave velocity profile from the Canterbury Geotechnical Database. The validity of the complete two-dimensional soil-structure interaction OpenSees model for the hospital is checked by comparing the results of peak floor responses and force-displacement relations within the isolation system achieved from OpenSees simulations to the recorded measurements. General explanations and implications, supported by displacement drifts, floor acceleration and displacement responses, force-displacement relations are described to address the effects of soil-structure interaction.

(Table 1) Stable nitrogen isotopes of ammonium in interstitial waters from ODP Site 164-997

Ammonium (NH4+) concentration profiles in piston-core sediments of the Carolina Rise and Blake Ridge generally have linear concentration profiles within the sulfate reduction zone (Borowski, 1998). Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 533, located on the Blake Ridge, also displayed a linear ammonium concentration profile through the sulfate reduction zone and the profile linearity continues into the upper methanogenic zone to a depth of ~200 meters below seafloor (mbsf), where the first methane gas hydrates probably occur (Jenden and Gieskes, 1983, doi:10.2973/dsdp.proc.76.114.1983; Kvenvolden and Barnard, 1983, doi:10.2973/dsdp.proc.76.106.1983). Sediments from the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 164 deep holes (Sites 994, 995, and 997) also exhibit linear ammonium profiles above the top of the gas hydrate zone (~200 mbsf) (Paull, Matsumoto, Wallace, et al., 1996, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.ir.164.1996). We hypothesized that a possible cause of linear ammonium profiles was diffusion of ammonium from a concentrated ammonium source at depth. We further reasoned that if this ammonium were produced by microbial fermentation reactions at depth, that a comparison of the nitrogen isotopic composition of sedimentary organic nitrogen and the nitrogen with pore-water ammonium would test this hypothesis. Convergence with depth of d15N values of the nitrogen source (sedimentary organic matter) and the nitrogen product (dissolved NH4+) would strongly suggest that ammonium was produced within a particular depth zone by microbial fermentation reactions. Here, we report d15N values of pore-water ammonium from selected interstitial water (IW) samples from Site 997, sampled during ODP Leg 164.

Ratio of Diene/Triene of sediment core MD03-2601

Micropaleontological and biomarker data from two high-accumulation marine sites from the Coastal and Continental Shelf Zone (CCSZ) off East Antarctica (Adélie Land at w140°E and eastern Prydz Bay at w77°E) are used to reconstruct Holocene changes in sea ice and wind stress at the basin-wide scale. These data demonstrate congruent increase in sea-ice concentration/persistence and wind stress-related sea-surface turbulence in the two regions since 7 cal ka BP, with a particularly strong signal since 4.5 - 3.5 cal ka BP. Comparison of these high latitude records with sea ice and turbulence records from the southern mid-latitudes highlights distinctive climatic evolutions according to the different latitudinal bands. Sea-ice persistence and turbulence increase in East Antarctica CCSZ are opposite to sea-surface warming and sea-ice retreat recorded after 4.5 - 3.5 cal ka BP in the East Atlantic and Indian sector between 55 and 45°S. At the same period, paleodata suggest SST cooling in all major coastal upwelling systems of the southern hemisphere, caused by the northward transport of subpolar surface waters as a response to southern Westerlies reinforcement. We therefore propose, as suggested for the northern hemisphere, that Holocene changes in the latitudinal insolation gradient, primarily forced by obliquity and precession and amplified by sea-ice and glacial-ice expansions in the Antarctic realm, are responsible for the observed contrasted latitudinal patterns of southern latitudes.

Stable isotope record of Uvigerina peregrina from the Mediterranean Sea

Based on the glacial to postglacial delta13C differences between endobenthic Uvigerina peregrina species from the Alboran basin and from other mediterranean basins, changes in the fertility of the western part of this basin during the last deglaciation are reconstructed. As a result of particulate organic carbon (POC) rain from the highly productive upwelling cell along the northwestern margin of the Alboran basin, U. peregrina is presently depleted by about 1.6per mil with respect to the measured delta13C values of bottom water SumCO2 and by about 0.9per mil with respect to specimens from other areas of the western Mediterranean or from the Gulf of Cadiz within the Mediterranean Outflow Water. The Uvigerina delta13C difference between the Alboran Sea and the Gulf of Cadiz (Delta delta13C), was close to 0per mil at the beginning of the last deglaciation and during the late glacial time. This suggests that highly fertile systems set in the Alboran Sea near 16 kyr B.P. Two rapid increases in the Delta delta13C offset are recorded near 15 kyr and 11 kyr B.P. Fluctuations around 1.1 to 1.2per mil occurred during the early Holocene, and a maximum was reached near 9 kyr B.P. After 4 kyr the Delta delta13C offset decreased to its present-day average value of 0.9per mil. Changes in the intensity of surficial production cannot account for all the observed fluctuations, especially in the early Holocene time. A strong decrease in the intermediate and deep water ventilation of the Alboran basin may have occurred near 8-9 kyr, in phase with the last stagnant phase in the eastern Mediterranean and the deposition of Sapropel S1. As a result, the redistribution and remineralization at depth of the produced organic matter was incomplete. The POC rain reaching the sediment was locally intensified and caused the lowering of the delta13C values of endobenthic foraminifers such as U. peregrina. The benthic 13C signal suggests that the difference between the Alboran Sea and the Gulf of Cadiz was at its maximum. At the same time, an important modification in the water masses structure may have occurred near 9-8 kyr B.P. The deepening of the permanent pycnocline probably related to a thicker Atlantic jet at a stage of high sea level stand is recorded by the replacement of the right coiling N. pachyderma dominance (coincident with a shallow pycnocline) by the G. inflata dominance (coincident with a deep pycnocline). Diatom abundances were strongly reduced indicating an important modification of the productive system. The glacial-postglacial evolution of productivity within the Alboran basin was therefore more complex than in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean and opposite to the global one which displays a general increase in productivity during glacial time. Although it is the global budget of paleoproductivity that would drive the partitioning of carbon within the ocean, local or regional discrepancies with the global glacial-interglacial model must be addressed. Local winds and regional atmospheric pressure systems, which are the forcing factors for circulation and exchange with the Atlantic, control the fertile systems of the Alboran basin.

Table 1: U-Pb analyses of zircons and monazites of paragneisses which belong to the high grade metamorphic basement of Wilson Terrane

Samples of high grade metamorphic basement rocks of Wilson Terrane cropping out in the Deep Freeze Range and on Kay Island were collected during GANOVEX VI to study their isotopic evolution. The age and origin of granulite facies gneisses and of their migmatite host rocks are especially of interest for the interpretation of the geological and tectonic development of North Victoria Land. Another important research aspect is the influence of the polyphase metamorphic evolution on the isotopic systems of whole rocks and minerals like zircon, garnet, orthopyroxene, amphibole and feldspar.

Strength of the Iberian intraplate lithosphere: Cenozoic deformations and seismicity

Previous studies about the strength of the lithosphere in the Iberia centre fail to resolve the depth of earthquakes because of the rheological uncertainties. Therefore, new contributions are considered (the crustal structure from a density model) and several parameters (tectonic regime, mantle rheology, strain rate) are checked in this paper to properly examine the role of lithospheric strength in the intraplate seismicity and the Cenozoic evolution. The strength distribution with depth, the integrated strength, the effective elastic thickness and the seismogenic thickness have been calculated by a finite element modelling of the lithosphere across the Central System mountain range and the bordering Duero and Madrid sedimentary basins. Only a dry mantle under strike-slip/extension and a strain rate of 10-15 s-1, or under extension and 10-16 s-1, causes a strong lithosphere. The integrated strength and the elastic thickness are lower in the mountain chain than in the basins. These anisotropies have been maintained since the Cenozoic and determine the mountain uplift and the biharmonic folding of the Iberian lithosphere during the Alpine deformations. The seismogenic thickness bounds the seismic activity in the upper–middle crust, and the decreasing crustal strength from the Duero Basin towards the Madrid Basin is related to a parallel increase in Plio–Quaternary deformations and seismicity. However, elasto–plastic modelling shows that current African–Eurasian convergence is resolved elastically or ductilely, which accounts for the low seismicity recorded in this region.

Fossil associations from the middle and upper Eocene strata of the Pamplona Basin and surrounding areas (Navarre, western Pyrenees)

Fossil associations from the middle and upper Eocene (Bartonian and Priabonian) sedimentary succession of the Pamplona Basin are described. This succession was accumulated in the western part of the South Pyrenean peripheral foreland basin and extends from deep-marine turbiditic (Ezkaba Sandstone Formation) to deltaic (Pamplona Marl, Ardanatz Sandstone and Ilundain Marl formations) and marginal marine deposits (Gendulain Formation). The micropalaeontological content is high. It is dominated by foraminifera, and common ostracods and other microfossils are also present. The fossil ichnoasssemblages include at least 23 ichnogenera and 28 ichnospecies indicative of Nereites, Cruziana, Glossifungites and ?Scoyenia-Mermia ichnofacies. Body macrofossils of 78 taxa corresponding to macroforaminifera, sponges, corals, bryozoans, brachiopods, annelids, molluscs, arthropods, echinoderms and vertebrates have been identified. Both the number of ichnotaxa and of species (e. g. bryozoans, molluscs and condrichthyans) may be considerably higher. Body fossil assemblages are comparable to those from the Eocene of the Nord Pyrenean area (Basque Coast), and also to those from the Eocene of the west-central and eastern part of South Pyrenean area (Aragon and Catalonia). At the European scale, the molluscs assemblages seem endemic from the Pyrenean area, although several Tethyan (Italy and Alps) and Northern elements (Paris basin and Normandy) have been recorded. Palaeontological data of studied sedimentary units fit well with the shallowing process that throughout the middle and late Eocene occurs in the area, according to the sedimentological and stratigraphical data.

Strontium isotopes and sedimentology of a marine Triassic succession (upper Ladinian) of the westernmost Tethys, Spain

Chemical Stratigraphy, or the study of the variation of chemical elements within sedimentary sequences, has gradually become an experienced tool in the research and correlation of global geologic events. In this paper 87Sr/ 86Sr ratios of the Triassic marine carbonates (Muschelkalk facies) of southeast Iberian Ranges, Iberian Peninsula, are presented and the representative Sr-isotopic curve constructed for the upper Ladinian interval. The studied stratigraphic succession is 102 meters thick, continuous, and well preserved. Previous paleontological data from macro and micro, ammonites, bivalves, foraminifera, conodonts and palynological assemblages, suggest a Fassanian-Longobardian age (Late Ladinian). Although diagenetic minerals are present in small amounts, the elemental data content of bulk carbonate samples, especially Sr contents, show a major variation that probably reflects palaeoenvironmental changes. The 87Sr/86Sr ratios curve shows a rise from 0.707649 near the base of the section to 0.707741 and then declines rapidly to 0.707624, with a final values rise up to 0.70787 in the upper part. The data up to meter 80 in the studied succession is broadly concurrent with 87Sr/86Sr ratios of sequences of similar age and complements these data. Moreover, the sequence stratigraphic framework and its key surfaces, which are difficult to be recognised just based in the facies analysis, are characterised by combining variations of the Ca, Mg, Mn, Sr and CaCO3 contents

Commodification of health care systems: The Catalan case

Commodification of the public healthcare system has been a growing process in recent decades, especially in universal healthcare systems and in high-income countries like Spain.  There are substantial differences in the healthcare systems of each autonomous region of Spain, among which Catalonia is characterized by having a mixed healthcare system with complex partnerships and interactions between the public and private healthcare sectors.  Using a narrative review approach, this article addresses various aspects of the Catalan healthcare system, characterizing the privatization and commodification of health processes in Catalonia from a historical perspective with particular attention to recent legislative changes and austerity measures.  The article approximates, the eventual effects that commodification and austerity measures will have on the health of the population and on the structure, accessibility, effectiveness, equity and quality of healthcare services.

Energy systems analysis of transboundary river basins in a nexus approach: the Sava river basin study case

Resource management policies are frequently designed and planned to target specific needs of particular sectors, without taking into account the interests of other sectors who share the same resources. In a climate of resource depletion, population growth, increase in energy demand and climate change awareness, it is of great importance to promote the assessment of intersectoral linkages and, by doing so, understand their effects and implications. This need is further augmented when common use of resources might not be solely relevant at national level, but also when the distribution of resources ranges over different nations. This dissertation focuses on the study of the energy systems of five south eastern European countries, which share the Sava River Basin, using a water-food(agriculture)-energy nexus approach. In the case of the electricity generation sector, the use of water is essential for the integrity of the energy systems, as the electricity production in the riparian countries relies on two major technologies dependent on water resources: hydro and thermal power plants. For example, in 2012, an average of 37% of the electricity production in the SRB countries was generated by hydropower and 61% in thermal power plants. Focusing on the SRB, in terms of existing installed capacities, the basin accommodates close to a tenth of all hydropower capacity while providing water for cooling to 42% of the net capacity of thermal power currently in operation in the basin. This energy-oriented nexus study explores the dependency on the basin’s water resources of the energy systems in the region for the period between 2015 and 2030. To do so, a multi-country electricity model was developed to provide a quantification ground to the analysis, using the open-source software modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Three main areas are subject to analysis: first, the impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies in the electricity generation mix; secondly, the potential impacts of climate change under a moderate climate change projection scenario; and finally, deriving from the latter point, the cumulative impact of an increase in water demand in the agriculture sector, for irrigation. Additionally, electricity trade dynamics are compared across the different scenarios under scrutiny, as an effort to investigate the implications of the aforementioned factors in the electricity markets in the region.

The Southern Ischia canyon system: examples of deep sea depositional systems on the continental slope off Campania (Italy)

The Southern Ischia canyon system has been investigated in detail through Multibeam bathymetry and Sparker seismic data and has been put in the geological framework of the deep sea depositional systems off the Campania region. The geological and geomorphological characteristics of the canyon system have been also compared with the characters of the Mediterranean submarine canyons and with the deep sea depositional systems of the Tyrrhenian sea. The Southern Ischia canyon system engraves a narrow continental shelf from Punta Imperatore to Punta San Pancrazio, being limited southwestwards from the relict volcanic edifice of the Ischia Bank. It consists of twenty-two drainage axes, whose planimetric trending has been reconstructed in a sketch morphological map realized through the geological interpretation of Multibeam bathymetry. While the eastern boundary of the canyon system is controlled by extensional tectonics, being limited by a NE-SW trending (anti-Apenninic) normal fault, its western boundary is controlled by volcanism, due to the growth of the Ischia volcanic bank. Submarine gravitational instabilities also acted in relationships to the canyon system, allowing for the individuation of large-scale creeping at the sea bottom and hummocky deposits already interpreted as debris avalanche deposits. Quaternary marine seismic sequences have been reconstructed through a densely spaced seismic grid recorded through a Sparker multitip seismic source, allowing for a detailed observation of steep erosional slopes occurring on the southern flank of the island and related deep sea depositional systems. Important implications of this study will regard the coastal monitoring and beach nourishment of the southern flank of the island, being involved by a strong erosion of marine and coastal systems.

Balancing Energy and Performance in Dense Linear System Solvers for Hybrid ARM+GPU platforms

The high performance computing community has traditionally focused uniquely on the reduction of execution time, though in the last years, the optimization of energy consumption has become a main issue. A reduction of energy usage without a degradation of performance requires the adoption of energy-efficient hardware platforms accompanied by the development of energy-aware algorithms and computational kernels. The solution of linear systems is a key operation for many scientific and engineering problems. Its relevance has motivated an important amount of work, and consequently, it is possible to find high performance solvers for a wide variety of hardware platforms. In this work, we aim to develop a high performance and energy-efficient linear system solver. In particular, we develop two solvers for a low-power CPU-GPU platform, the NVIDIA Jetson TK1. These solvers implement the Gauss-Huard algorithm yielding an efficient usage of the target hardware as well as an efficient memory access. The experimental evaluation shows that the novel proposal reports important savings in both time and energy-consumption when compared with the state-of-the-art solvers of the platform.

Growth and development of three key summer grasses in Australian cotton systems

Awnless barnyard grass, feathertop Rhodes grass, and windmill grass are important weeds in Australian cotton systems. In October 2014, an experiment was established to investigate the phenological plasticity of these species. Seed of these species were planted in a glasshouse every four weeks and each cohort grown for 6 months. A developmental response to day length was observed in barnyard grass but not in the other species. Days to maturity increased with each planting for feathertop Rhodes and windmill grass for the first six cohorts. Barnyard grass showed a similar pattern in growth for seeds planted from October to December with an increase in the onset of maturity from 51 to 58 days. However, the onset of maturity for cohorts planted between January and March decreased to between 50 and 52 days. All species had a decrease in the total number of panicles produced from the first four plantings. Feathertop Rhodes grass planted in October produced 41 panicles compared to those planted at the end of December producing 30 panicles, barnyard grass had a decrease from 99 to 47 panicles and windmill grass 37 to 15 panicles on average. By comparing the development of these key weed species over 12 months, detailed information on the phenological plasticity of these species will be obtained. This information will contribute to more informed management decisions by improving our understanding of appropriate weed control timings or herbicide rates depending on weed emergence and development.