Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Morphometric analyses of the hamstring muscles using MRI: What is the best way?

Associations between injury and muscle asymmetries, as determined with magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, have been investigated in a number of sports medicine-based studies. For interventional or prospective studies into musculoskeletal injuries, it is important to determine the repeatability of the morphometric procedures used for quantifying muscle asymmetries. This study examines the intra-observer repeatability of manual segmentation for determining bilateral volumes of the individual hamstring muscles.

Feasibility of an in-patient exercise intervention for children undergoing haematopoietic stem cell transplant

With improving survival rates following HSCT in children, QOL and management of short- and long-term effects need to be considered. Exercise may help mitigate fatigue and declines in fitness and strength. The aims of this study were to assess the feasibility of an inpatient exercise intervention for children undergoing HSCT and observe the changes in physical and psychological health. Fourteen patients were recruited, mean age 10 yr. A 6MWT, isometric upper and lower body strength, balance, fatigue, and QOL were assessed prior to Tx and six wk post-Tx. A supervised exercise program was offered five days per week during the inpatient period and feasibility assessed through uptake rate. The study had 100% program completion and 60% uptake rate of exercise sessions. The mean (±s.d.) weekly activity was 117.5 (±79.3) minutes. Younger children performed significantly more minutes of exercise than adolescents. At reassessment, strength and fatigue were stabilized while aerobic fitness and balance decreased. QOL revealed a non-statistical trend towards improvement. No exercise-related adverse events were reported. A supervised inpatient exercise program is safe and feasible, with potential physiological and psychosocial benefits.

Exercise and psychosocial interventions in breast cancer survivors: Preliminary results of a randomized controlled trial

Physical and psychological decline is common in the post-treatment breast cancer population, yet the efficacy of concurrent interventions to meet both physical- psychosocial needs in this population has not been extensively examined. PURPOSE: This study explores the effects of a combined exercise and psychosocial intervention model on selected physiological-psychological parameters in post-treated breast cancer. METHODS: Forty-one breast cancer survivors were randomly assigned to one of four groups for an 8-week intervention: exercise only [EX, n=13] (aerobic and resistance training), psychosocial therapy only [PS, n=11] (biofeedback), combined EX and PS [EX+PS, n=11], or to control conditions [CO, n=6]. Mean delta score (post-intervention - baseline) were calculated for each of the following: body weight, % body fat (skin folds), predicted VO2max (Modified Bruce Protocol), overall dynamic muscular endurance [OME] (RMCRI protocol), static balance (Single leg stance test), dynamic balance (360° turn and 4-square step test), fatigue (Revised Piper Scale), and quality of life (FACT-B). A one-way ANOVA was used to analyze the preliminary results of this on-going randomized trial. RESULTS: Overall, there were significant differences in the delta scores for predicted VO2max, OME, and dynamic balance among the 4 groups (p<0.05). The EX+PS group showed a significant improvement in VO2max compared with the PS group (4.2 ± 3.8 vs. -0.9 ± 4.2 mL/kg/min; p<0.05). Both the EX+PS and EX groups showed significant improvements in OME compared with the PS and CO groups (44.5 ± 23.5 and 43.4 ± 22.1 vs. -3.9 ± 15.2 and 2.7 ± 13.7 repetitions; p<0.05). All 3 intervention groups showed significant improvements in dynamic balance compared with the CO group (-0.8 ± 0.6, -0.6 ± 0.8, and -0.6 ±1.0 vs. 0.6 ± 0.6 seconds; p<0.05). Overall, changes in fatigue tended towards significance among the 4 groups (p = 0.08), with decreased fatigue in the intervention groups and increased fatigue in the CO group. CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary findings suggest that EX and PS seem to produce greater positive changes in the outcome measures than CO. However, at this point no definite conclusions can be made on the additive effects of combining the EX and PS interventions.

A comparison of training methods to increase neck muscle strength

Objective To compare two neck strength training modalities. Background Neck injury in pilots flying high performance aircraft is a concern in aviation medicine. Strength training may be an effective means to strengthen the neck and decrease injury risk. Methods The cohort consisted of 32 age-height-weight matched participants, divided into two experimental groups; the Multi-Cervical Unit (MCU) and Thera-Band tubing groups (THER), and a control (CTRL) group. Ten weeks of training were undertaken and pre-and post isometric strength testing for all groups was performed on the MCU. Comparisons between the three groups were made using a Kruskal-Wallis test and effect sizes between the MCU and the THER groups and the THER and CTRL groups were also calculated. Results The MCU group displayed the greatest increase in isometric strength (flexion 64.4%, extension 62.9%, left lateral flexion 53.3%, right lateral flexion 49.1%) and differences were only statistically significant (p<0.05) when compared to the CTRL group. Increases in neck strength for the THER group were lower than that shown in the MCU group (flexion 42.0%, extension 29.9%, left lateral flexion 26.7%, right lateral flexion 24.1%). Moderate to large effect sizes were found between the MCU and THER as well as the THER and CTRL groups. Conclusions This study demonstrated that the MCU was the most effective training modality to increase isometric cervical muscle strength. Thera-Band tubing did however, produce moderate gains in isometric neck strength

The effects of +Gz force on the bone mineral density of fighter pilots

HYPOTHESIS Bone is a metabolically active tissue which responds to high strain loading. The purpose of this study was to examine the bone response to high +Gz force loading generated during high performance flying. METHODS The bone response to +Gz force loading was monitored in 10 high performance RAAF pilots and 10 gender-, age-, height-, weight-matched control subjects. The pilots were stationed at the RAAF base at Pearce, Western Australia, all completing the 1-yr flight training course. The pilots flew the Pilatus PC-9 aircraft, routinely sustaining between 2.0 and 6.0 +Gz. Bone mineral density (BMD) and bone mineral content (BMC) were measured at baseline and 12 mo, using the Hologic QDR 2000+ bone densitometer. RESULTS After controlling for change in total body weight and fat mass, the pilots experienced a significant increase in BMD and BMC for thoracic spine, pelvis, and total body, in the magnitude of 11.0%, 4.9%, and 3.7%, respectively. However, no significant changes in bone mineral were observed in the pilots lumbar spine, arms or legs. The control group experienced a significant decrease in pelvic BMC, with no other bone mineral changes observed at any site. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that site specific BMD is increased in response to high +Gz forces generated during high performance flying in a PC-9.

An effective, economic way of monitoring menstrual cycle hormones in at risk female athletes

PURPOSE: Female athletes, in response to intensive training, competition stress and a lean, athletic physique, are at increased risk of altered hypothalamic-pituitary ovarian (HPO) axis function associated with menstrual cycle disturbance and reduced secretion of the ovarian hormones estrogen and progesterone. Because there is evidence suggesting possible detrimental effects on skeletal health associated with deficiencies in these hormones, a suitable means to asses ovarian hormone concentrations in at risk athletes is needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate a simple, economical means to monitor the ovarian hormone production in athletes, in the setting of intensive training. METHODS: Subjects comprised 14 adolescent rowers, 12 lightweight rowers, and two groups of 10 matched control subjects. Ovarian function was monitored during the competition season by estimation of urinary excretion of estrone glucuronide (E1G) and pregnanediol glucuronide (PdG), enabling the menstrual cycles to be classified as ovulatory or anovulatory. RESULTS: Results indicated 35% and 75% of schoolgirl and lightweight rowers had anovulatory menstrual cycles, respectively. These findings were highlighted by significantly lower excretion of E1G and PdG during phases of intensive training in both the lightweight and schoolgirl rowers, compared with the control subjects. CONCLUSION: It was concluded that the urinary E1G and PdG assays were an effective means to assess the influence of intense training on ovarian hormone concentrations in at risk athletes. It is recommended that this technique be applied more widely as a means of early detection of athletes with low estrogen and progesterone levels, in an attempt to avoid detrimental influences on skeletal health.

Prospective decrease in progesterone concentrations in female lightweight rowers during the competition season compared with the off-season: A controlled study examining weight loss and intensive exercise

The purpose of this study was to monitor ovarian hormone function response to intense exercise and body weight changes in female athletes. Ovarian hormone function was evaluated in 12 female lightweight rowers and 10 age-height-weight matched sedentary controls. Ovarian hormone function was assessed during consecutive competition season and off season, by measurement of peak and average alternative day overnight urinary oestrone glucuronide (E1G) and pregnanediol glucuronide (PdG) excretion. Competition season was associated with a 5.8 kg (9.3%) body weight loss in the lightweight rowers. Significantly lower competition season peak and average urinary excretion of PdG were found in the lightweight rowers compared with the controls. Lower competition season peak and average urinary excretion of E1G were also found in the lightweight rowers compared with the controls, but the difference did not reach significance. The number of rowing training hours was a significant determinant of peak PdG excretion in the rowers (R2 = 0.40; p<0.02). The seasonal suppression of PdG excretion was associated with degree of weight loss (R2 = 0.46; p<0.01). The competition related decrease in E1G and PdG excretion for the lightweight rowers was predominantly restored during the off season when exercise intensity and duration were decreased and body weight increased. These results showed a significant (p<0.05) reduction in progesterone metabolite excretion and a non-significant decrease in oestrone metabolite excretion associated with intensive competition season training loads and body weight reduction in female lightweight rowers.

Weight bearing physical activity for performance and bone health in prepubertal girls

This study assessed the status of bone and cardiovascular health in young, prepubertal females (aged 9 to 11 years) during a school based intervention program involving weight bearing physical activity. A study of 10 months duration was conducted in four primary schools in the Melbourne suburbs. It involved a physical activity group (n=38) and an aged-matched control group (n=33). Baseline data including pubertal status, health-related fitness, bone mass and body composition were obtained pre and post the intervention programme. All children had their bone mineral density monitored. Bone mineral density and body composition measurements were performed by DXA using the Hologic QDR 2000 bone densitometer. At the completion of the program the activity group had accrued significantly greater bone mass at total body, lumbar spine, leg and femoral neck when expressed as BMC or BMD.

Seasonal variations in the body composition of lightweight rowers

OBJECTIVE To monitor the seasonal body composition alterations in 18 lightweight rowers (six females, 12 males) across a rowing season incorporating preseason, early competition, competition, and postseason. METHODS Subject age was 23.1 (SD 4.5) years, height 170.8 (5.6) cm (female, 23.5 (3.5) years, 180.5 (2.7) cm (male). Body weight, fat mass, and fat-free mass (FFM) were assessed using dual energy x ray absorptiometry (DXA-L Lunar) and skinfold techniques. Weight control techniques were documented before major regattas by a questionnaire. RESULTS Female body weight was reduced from 61.3 (2.9) to 57.0 (1.1) kg (5.9%), while male body weight was reduced from 75.6 (3.1) to 69.8 (1.6) kg (7.8%) preseason to competition season respectively. These body weight reductions were mirrored by a significant reduction in fat mass as indicated by the sum of skinfolds [female seven sites: 80.9 (8.1) to 68.2 (11.8) mm; male eight sites: 54.2 (8.7) to 41.8 (4.8) mm], percentage body fat [female 22.1 (1.0) to 19.7 (2.4)%; male 10.0 (0.9) to 7.8 (0.8)%], and total fat [female 12.5 (5.2) to 10.9 (1.4) kg; male 7.3 (1.9) to 5.6 (1.8) kg] (DXA). In contrast, no changes were observed in FFM despite a season of intensive rowing training. Seasonal body weight control was achieved through reduced total energy and dietary fat intakes. Acute body weight reductions were achieved by exercise in 73.3% of participants, food restriction in 71.4%, and fluid restrictions in 62.9%. CONCLUSIONS Seasonal body weight alterations in lightweight rowers are in response to a significant reduction in fat mass. However, the weight restrictions appear to be limiting an increase in FFM which could be beneficial to rowing performance.

Higher intensity exercise helps cancer survivors remain motivated

Purpose The aim of the present study was to determine if exercise intensity impacts upon the psychosocial responses of breast and prostate cancer survivors to a rehabilitation program. Methods Eighty-seven prostate and 72 breast cancer survivors participated in an 8-week exercise and supportive group psychotherapy intervention (n=84) or control (n=75) group. Intervention participants were randomized to low-to-moderate intensity exercise (LIG; n=44; 60–65 % VO2peak, 50–65 % one repetition maximum (1RM)) or moderate-to-high intensity exercise (HIG; n=40; 75–80 % VO2peak, 65–80 % 1RM) while controls continued usual care. Before and after the 8 weeks, all participants completed the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast or -Prostate to assess quality of life (QOL) and Behavioural Regulations of Exercise Version 2 for exercise motivation. Intervention participants also completed a follow-up assessment 4 months post-intervention. Results All three groups improved in QOL from baseline to post-intervention, with no significant differences. From postintervention to follow-up, the LIG and HIG similarly maintained QOL scores. Between baseline and post-intervention, both intervention arms improved their motivation to exercise compared to the controls (p=0.004). At the 4-month followup, the HIG had maintained their overall exercise motivation (p<0.001) and both domains of intrinsic motivation (identified regulation, p=0.047; intrinsic regulation, p=0.007); however, the LIG had regressed. Conclusions The structured intervention was successful at improving autonomous exercise motivation, regardless of exercise intensity. However, only those participants who had exercised at a higher intensity sustained their improvement. Intervention participation did not improve QOL more than controls. Implications for Cancer Survivors Higher-intensity exercise is more likely to result in more sustainable increases in motivation to exercise among cancer survivors.

Feeling Better, Performing Better? Holistically-Oriented Top Performance and Well-Being (HOPE) : Performance Enhancement and Its Perceived Impacts on Musicians

Most musicians choose a career in music based on their love of the art and a desire to share it with others. However, being a performing musician is highly demanding. Despite considerable evidence of the great frequency of performance-related problems (e.g. debilitating performance anxiety) among professional musicians or aspiring musicians in the current Western classical music tradition these problems are seldom discussed openly. The existing system offers musicians very little help in learning how to build sustainable performance success into their musical career. This study it is first of its kind in Finland which addresses the issue on larger scale in a systematic way. I devised the HOPE intervention (Holistically-Oriented Top Performance and Well-Being Enhancement), in order to learn how to integrate professional peak performance and a sense of personal well-being into the lives and careers of musicians. Unlike most interventions in previous research, the HOPE intervention is explicitly holistic and aims at enhancing the whole musician, not just alleviating performance anxiety. Earlier research has not in principle focused on musicians´ psychological well-being or on their subjective perceptions. The main purpose of the study is to understand the perceived impacts of the specially devised HOPE intervention on the participants and particularly in four key areas: performing, playing or singing well-being, and overall (performing, playing or singing and well-being combined). Furthermore, it is hoped that a deeper understanding of performers´ development will be gained. The research method is interdisciplinary and mainly qualitative. The primary data consist of a series of linked questionnaires (before and after the intervention) and semi-structured follow-up interviews collected during action research-oriented HOPE intervention courses for music majors in the Sibelius Academy. With the longitudinal group called Hope 1, the core data were collected during a nine month HOPE intervention course and from follow-up interviews conducted six months later in 2003-2004. The core data of Hope 1 (nine participants) are compared with the perceived impacts on fifty-three other participants in the HOPE courses during the period since their inception, 2001-2006. The focus is particularly on participants´ subjective perceptions. Results of the study suggest that the HOPE intervention is beneficial in enhancing overall performance capacity, including music performance, and a personal sense of well-being in a music university setting. The findings indicate that within all key areas significant positive changes take place between the beginning and the end of a HOPE intervention course. The longitudinal data imply that the perceived positive changes are still ongoing six months after the HOPE intervention course is finished. The biggest change takes place within the area of performing and the smallest, in participants´ perception of their playing or singing. The main impacts include reduced feelings of stress and anxiety (an enhanced sense of well-being) as well as increased sense of direction and control in one's life. Since the results of the present research gave no other reason to believe otherwise, it is to be expected that the HOPE intervention and the results of the study can be exploited in other areas of human activity as well, especially where continuous professional top performance is a prerequisite such as in business or sports. Keywords: performance enhancement, professional top performance, subjective well-being, subjective perceptions, holism, coaching, music performance anxiety, studying music, music.

Muusikon mentaaliharjoittelu : Konsertoivan ja opettavan pianistin mentaaliharjoittelu

This research explores the foci, methods and processes of mental training by pianists who are active as performers and teachers. The research is based on the concept of mental training as a solely mental mode of practising. Musician s mental training takes place without an instrument or the physical act of playing. The research seeks answers to questions: 1) What are the foci of a pianist s mental training? 2) How does a pianist carry out the mental training? 3) What does mental training in music entail as a process? The research approach is qualitative, and the materials were gathered from thematic interviews. The aim of practising is always an improved result both in the act of playing and the performance. Mental training by a pianist is collaboration between technical, auditory, visual, kinaesthetic and affective factors. Also interpretation, memory and overcoming stage fright are needed. Technical, cognitive and performance skills are involved. According to the results of this research, mental training is a goal-oriented activity which can have an impact on all of these factors. Without a musical inner ear and its functionality, true musicianship cannot exist. One particular result of this research is the conceptualisation of opening up the inner ear. Auditory exercises and internally playing mental images are essential elements of the mental practice of a musician. Visual images, such as a picture of music notation or a performance event, are the point of focus for musicians who find visual images to be the easiest to realise. When developing technical skills by using mental training, it is important to focus on the technically most difficult sections. It is also necessary to focus on the holistic experiencing of the performance situation. By building on positive energies and strengths, the so-called psyching up may be the most important element in mental training. Based on the results of this research, a synthesis is outlined of the music event as an activity process, built on representations and schemes. Mental training aims at the most ideal possible act of playing and the creation of a musical event; these are achieved by focussing on various mental images produced by the different senses, together with concrete practising. Mental training in sports and in music share common factors. Both modes of practising, mental as well as physical, involve three important elements: planning, realisation and evaluation of the practice. In music, however, the goal is an artistic end result which does not often apply to an athletic event. Keywords: Mental training in music, auditory imagining, visualisation, kinaesthetic-mental experience, mastery of the psyche

Short biceps femoris fascicles and eccentric knee flexor weakness increase the risk of hamstring injury in elite football (soccer): A prospective cohort study

Background/Aim: To investigate the role of eccentric knee flexor strength, between-limb imbalance and biceps femoris long head (BFlh) fascicle length on the risk of a future hamstring strain injury (HSI). Methods: Elite soccer players (n=152) from eight different teams participated. Eccentric knee flexor strength during the Nordic hamstring exercise and BFlh fascicle length were assessed at the beginning of pre-season. The occurrences of a HSI following this were recorded by the team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data, and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results: Twenty-seven new HSIs were reported. Eccentric knee flexor strength below 337N (RR = 4.4; 95% CI = 1.1 to 17.5) and BFlh fascicles shorter than 10.56cm (RR = 4.1; 95% CI=1.9 to 8.7) significantly increased the risk of a subsequent HSI. Multivariate logistic regression revealed significant effects when combinations of age, previous history of HSI, eccentric knee flexor strength and BFlh fascicle length were explored. From these analyses the likelihood of a future HSI in older athletes or those with a previous HSI history was reduced if high levels of eccentric knee flexor strength and longer BFlh fascicles were present. Conclusions: The presence of short BFlh fascicles and low levels of eccentric strength in elite soccer players increase the risk of a future HSI. The greater risk of a future HSI in older players or those with a previous HSI is reduced when they possess longer BFlh fascicles and high levels of eccentric strength.

Applying pure mathematics: mathematics in the natural sciences

The book of nature is written in the language of mathematics. This quotation, attributed to Galileo, seemed to hold to an unreasonable1 extent in the era of quantum mechanics.