Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Classical correlated imaging from the perspective of coherent-mode representation

We use coherent-mode representation of partially coherent fields to analyze correlated imaging with classical light sources. This formalism is very useful to study the imaging quality. By decomposing the unknown object as the superposition of different coherent modes, the components corresponding to small eigenvalues cannot be well imaged. The generated images depend crucially on the distribution of the eigenvalues of the coherent-mode representation of the source and the decomposition coefficients of the objects. Three kinds of correlated imaging schemes are analyzed numerically.

High pressure states in condensed matter: I. High pressure behavior of the iron-sulphur system with applications to the earth's core. II. Empirical equation of state for organic compounds at high pressures

Part I:

The earth's core is generally accepted to be composed primarily of iron, with an admixture of other elements. Because the outer core is observed not to transmit shear waves at seismic frequencies, it is known to be liquid or primarily liquid. A new equation of state is presented for liquid iron, in the form of parameters for the 4th order Birch-Murnaghan and Mie-Grüneisen equations of state. The parameters were constrained by a set of values for numerous properties compiled from the literature. A detailed theoretical model is used to constrain the P-T behavior of the heat capacity, based on recent advances in the understanding of the interatomic potentials for transition metals. At the reference pressure of 10⁵ Pa and temperature of 1811 K (the normal melting point of Fe), the parameters are: ρ = 7037 kg/m³, K_S0 = 110 GPa, K_S' = 4.53, K_S" = -.0337 GPa-1, and γ = 2.8, with γ α ρ^-1.17. Comparison of the properties predicted by this model with the earth model PREM indicates that the outer core is 8 to 10 % less dense than pure liquid Fe at the same conditions. The inner core is also found to be 3 to 5% less dense than pure liquid Fe, supporting the idea of a partially molten inner core. The density deficit of the outer core implies that the elements dissolved in the liquid Fe are predominantly of lower atomic weight than Fe. Of the candidate light elements favored by researchers, only sulfur readily dissolves into Fe at low pressure, which means that this element was almost certainly concentrated in the core at early times. New melting data are presented for FeS and FeS₂ which indicate that the FeS₂ is the S-hearing liquidus solid phase at inner core pressures. Consideration of the requirement that the inner core boundary be observable by seismological means and the freezing behavior of solutions leads to the possibility that the outer core may contain a significant fraction of solid material. It is found that convection in the outer core is not hindered if the solid particles are entrained in the fluid flow. This model for a core of Fe and S admits temperatures in the range 3450K to 4200K at the top of the core. An all liquid Fe-S outer core would require a temperature of about 4900 K at the top of the core.

Part II.

The abundance of uses for organic compounds in the modern world results in many applications in which these materials are subjected to high pressures. This leads to the desire to be able to describe the behavior of these materials under such conditions. Unfortunately, the number of compounds is much greater than the number of experimental data available for many of the important properties. In the past, one approach that has worked well is the calculation of appropriate properties by summing the contributions from the organic functional groups making up molecules of the compounds in question. A new set of group contributions for the molar volume, volume thermal expansivity, heat capacity, and the Rao function is presented for functional groups containing C, H, and O. This set is, in most cases, limited in application to low molecular liquids. A new technique for the calculation of the pressure derivative of the bulk modulus is also presented. Comparison with data indicates that the presented technique works very well for most low molecular hydrocarbon liquids and somewhat less well for oxygen-bearing compounds. A similar comparison of previous results for polymers indicates that the existing tabulations of group contributions for this class of materials is in need of revision. There is also evidence that the Rao function contributions for polymers and low molecular compounds are somewhat different.

Investigating the Role of the GET3-GET4/GET5 Interaction During Tail-Anchor Protein Targeting

The proper targeting of membrane proteins is essential to the viability of all cells. Tail-anchored (TA) proteins, defined as having a single transmembrane helix at their C-terminus, are post-translationally targeted to the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) membrane by the GET pathway (Guided Entry of TA proteins). In the yeast pathway, the handover of TA substrates is mediated by the heterotetrameric Get4/Get5 (Get4/5) complex, which tethers the co-chaperone Sgt2 to the central targeting factor, the Get3 ATPase. Although binding of Get4/5 to Get3 is critical for efficient TA targeting, the mechanisms by which Get4 regulates Get3 are unknown. To understand the molecular basis of Get4 function, we used a combination of structural biology, biochemistry, and cell biology. Get4/5 binds across the Get3 dimer interface, in an orientation only compatible with a closed Get3, providing insight into the role of nucleotide in complex formation. Additionally, this structure reveals two functionally distinct binding interfaces for anchoring and ATPase regulation, and loss of the regulatory interface leads to strong defects in vitro and in vivo. Additional crystal structures of the Get3-Get4/5 complex give rise to an alternate conformation, which represents an initial binding interaction mediated by electrostatics that facilitates the rate of subsequent inhibited complex formation. This interface is supported by an in-depth kinetic analysis of the Get3-Get4/5 interaction confirming the two-step complex formation. These results allow us to generate a refined model for Get4/5 function in TA targeting.

Biotic vs. Abiotic Control of Decomposition: A Comparison of the Effects of Simulated Extinctions and Changes in Temperature

The loss of species is known to have significant effects on ecosystem functioning, but only recently has it been recognized that species loss might rival the effects of other forms of environmental change on ecosystem processes. There is a need for experimental studies that explicitly manipulate species richness and environmental factors concurrently to determine their relative impacts on key ecosystem processes such as plant litter decomposition. It is crucial to understand what factors affect the rate of plant litter decomposition and the relative magnitude of such effects because the rate at which plant litter is lost and transformed to other forms of organic and inorganic carbon determines the capacity for carbon storage in ecosystems and the rate at which greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide are outgassed. Here we compared how an increase in water temperature of 5 degrees C and loss of detritivorous invertebrate and plant litter species affect decomposition rates in a laboratory experiment simulating stream conditions. Like some prior studies, we found that species identity, rather than species richness per se, is a key driver of decomposition, but additionally we showed that the loss of particular species can equal or exceed temperature change in its impact on decomposition. Our results indicate that the loss of particular species can be as important a driver of decomposition as substantial temperature change, but also that predicting the relative consequences of species loss and other forms of environmental change on decomposition requires knowledge of assemblages and their constituent species' ecology and ecophysiology

A novel brain partition highlights the modular skeleton shared by structure and function

Elucidating the intricate relationship between brain structure and function, both in healthy and pathological conditions, is a key challenge for modern neuroscience. Recent progress in neuroimaging has helped advance our understanding of this important issue, with diffusion images providing information about structural connectivity (SC) and functional magnetic resonance imaging shedding light on resting state functional connectivity (rsFC). Here, we adopt a systems approach, relying on modular hierarchical clustering, to study together SC and rsFC datasets gathered independently from healthy human subjects. Our novel approach allows us to find a common skeleton shared by structure and function from which a new, optimal, brain partition can be extracted. We describe the emerging common structure-function modules (SFMs) in detail and compare them with commonly employed anatomical or functional parcellations. Our results underline the strong correspondence between brain structure and resting-state dynamics as well as the emerging coherent organization of the human brain.

Model-based control of a Rijke tube combustion instability

A Rijke tube is used to demonstrate model-based control of a combustion instability, where controller design is based on measurement of the unstable system. The Rijke tube used was of length 0.75m and had a grid-stabilised laminar flame in its lower half. A microphone was used as a sensor and a loudspeaker as an actuator for active control. The open loop transfer function (OLTF) required for controller design was that from the actuator to the sensor. This was measured experimentally by sending a signal with two components to the actuator. The first was a control component from an empirically designed controller, which was used to stabilise the system, thus eliminating the non-linear limit cycle. The second was a high bandwidth signal for identification of the OLTF. This approach to measuring the OLTF is generic and can be applied to large-scale combustors. The measured OLTF showed that only the fundamental mode of the tube was unstable; this was consistent with the OLTF predicted by a mathematical model of the tube, involving 1-D linear acoustic waves and a time delay heat release model. Based on the measured OLTF, a controller to stabilise the instability was designed using Nyquist techniques. This was implemented and was seen to result in an 80dB reduction in the microphone pressure spectrum. A robustness study was performed by adding an additional length to the top of the Rijke tobe. The controller was found to achieve control up to an increase in tube length of 19%. This compared favourably with the empirical controller, which lost control for an increase in tube length of less than 3%.

Gene function prediction from synthetic lethality networks via ranking on demand.

MOTIVATION: Synthetic lethal interactions represent pairs of genes whose individual mutations are not lethal, while the double mutation of both genes does incur lethality. Several studies have shown a correlation between functional similarity of genes and their distances in networks based on synthetic lethal interactions. However, there is a lack of algorithms for predicting gene function from synthetic lethality interaction networks. RESULTS: In this article, we present a novel technique called kernelROD for gene function prediction from synthetic lethal interaction networks based on kernel machines. We apply our novel algorithm to Gene Ontology functional annotation prediction in yeast. Our experiments show that our method leads to improved gene function prediction compared with state-of-the-art competitors and that combining genetic and congruence networks leads to a further improvement in prediction accuracy.

Semi-intensive shrimp farming system of Kerala, India: a production function analysis

An analysis of the factor-product relationship in the semi-intensive shrimp farming system of Kerala, farm basis and hectare basis, we are attempted and the results reported in this paper. The Cobb-Douglas model, in which the physical relationship between input and output is estimated, and the marginal analysis then employed to evaluate the producer behaviour, was used for the analysis. The study was based on empirical data collected during November 1994 to May 1996, covering three seasons, from 21 farms spread over Alappuzha, Ernakulam and Kasaragod districts of the state. The sample covered a total area of 61.06 ha. Of the 11 explanatory variables considered in the model, the size of the farm, casual labour and chemical fertilizers were found statistically significant. It was also observed that the factors such as age of pond, experience of the farmer, feed, miscellaneous costs, number of seed stocked and skilled labour contributed positively to the output. The estimated industry production function exhibited unitary economies of scale. The estimated mean output was 3937 kg/ha. The test of multi-co-linearity showed that there is no problem of dominant variable. On the basis of the marginal product and the given input-output prices, the optimum amounts of seed, feed and casual labour were estimated. They were about 97139 seed, 959 kg of feed and 585 man-days of casual labour per farm. This indicated the need for reducing the stocking density and amount of feed from the present levels, in order to maximise profit. Based on the finding of the study, suggestions for improving the industry production function are proposed.

An empirical study on income and efficiency of pond fish and nursery fish production in some selected areas of Pabna, Bangladesh

The study was designed to determine the costs, returns and relative profitability of pond fish and nursery fish production. In order to attain this objective, a total of 70 producers: 35 producing pond fish and 35 producing nursery fish were selected on the basis of purposive random sampling technique from 6 villages under two Upazilas (Sujanagar and Santhia) of Pabna district. It was estimated that per hectare per year gross cost of pond fish production was Tk 65,918 while gross return and net return were Tk 91,707 and Tk 25,789 respectively. Per hectare per year gross cost of nursery fish production was Tk 87,489 while gross return and net return were Tk 1,39,272 and Tk 51,783 respectively. The findings revealed that nursery fish production was more profitable than pond fish production. Cobb-Douglas production function was applied to realize the specific effect of the factors on pond fish and nursery fish production. It was observed that most of the included variables had significant impact on pond fish and nursery fish production. Out of five variables included in the function, all the variables had positive impact on return from pond fish production but stock value of pond, material cost and pond area had positive impact on return from nursery fish production.

Isolation and preliminary characterization of a 22-kDa protein with trypsin inhibitory activity from toad Bufo andrewsi skin

A novel trypsin inhibitor termed BATI was purified to homogeneity from the skin extracts of toad Bufo andrewsi by successive ion-exchange, gel-filtration and reverse-phase chromatography. BATI is basic single chain glycoprotein, with apparent molecular weight of 22 kDa in SDS-PAGE. BATI is a thermal stable competitive inhibitor and effectively inhibits trypsin's catalytic activity on peptide substrate with the inhibitor constant (K-i) value of 14 nM and shows no inhibitory effect on chymotrypsin, thrombin and elastase. The N-terminal sequence of BATI is EKDSITD, which shows no similarity with other known trypsin inhibitors. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Purification and cloning of a novel C-type lectin-like protein with platelet aggregation activity from Trimeresurus mucrosquamatus venom

TMVA, a novel C-type lectin-like protein that induces platelet aggregation in a dose-dependent manner, was purified from the venom of Trimeresurus mucrosquamatus. It consists of two subunits, alpha (15,536 Da) and beta (14,873 Da). The mature amino acid sequences of the a (135 amino acids) and beta subunits (123 amino acids) were deduced from cloned cDNAs. Both of the sequences show great similarity to C-type lectin-like venom proteins, including a carbohydrate recognition domain. The cysteine residues of TMVA are conserved at positions corresponding to those of flavocetin-A and convulxin, including the additional Cys135 in the alpha subunit and Cys3 in the beta subunit. SDS-PAGE, mass spectrometry analysis and amino acid sequence showed that native TMVA exists as two convertible multimers Of (alphabeta)(2) and (alphabeta)(4) with molecular weights of 63,680 and 128,518 Da, respectively. The (alphabeta)(2) complex is stabilized by an interchain disulfide bridge between the two alphabeta-heterodimers, whereas the stabilization of the (alphabeta)(4) complex seems to involve non-covalent interactions between the (alphabeta)(2) complexes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Origin and evolution of new exons in the rodent zinc finger protein 39 gene

The origin of new structures and functions is an important process in evolution. In the past decades, we have obtained some preliminary knowledge of the origin and evolution of new genes. However, as the basic unit of genes, the origin and evolution of exons remain unclear. Because young exons retain the footprints of origination, they can be good materials for studying origin and evolution of new exons. In this paper, we report two young exons in a zinc finger protein gene of rodents. Since they are unique sequences in mouse and rat genome and no homologous sequences were found in the orthologous genes of human and pig, the young exons might originate after the divergence of primates and rodents through exonization of intronic sequences. Strong positive selection was detected in the new exons between mouse and rat, suggesting that these exons have undergone significant functional divergence after the separation of the two species. On the other hand, population genetics data of mouse demonstrate that the new exons have been subject to functional constraint, indicating an important function of the new exons in mouse. Functional analyses suggest that these new exons encode a nuclear localization signal peptide, which may mediate new ways of nuclear protein transport. To our knowledge, this is the first example of the origin and evolution of young exons.

Effects of toxins induced by phytoplankton bloom on physiological function of indicator animals in Anzali Lagoon

The present overview summarizes data from one year's study during the period of 1379 to 1380 in the regions by "Anzali" lagoon called "Abkenar" and "Hendkhale". Specimens from this lagoon obtained weekly during mordad and shahrivar mounths (July 21 to september 21). The study included 67 types of 5 phytoplanktonal phylum. In "Abkenar" region Cyanobacters with maximum of 97% and minimum of 64.5% of total combination of phytoplanktones made the dominating combination during the period of study , while in "hendkhale" chyrsophyta with maximum of 89% and minimum of 38.7% of total phytoplanktonal was the dominating figure at the same period of time. Researches on ecological parameteres showed that the avarage dissolved oxygen in -Abkenar" and "hendlchale" regions was 10.7 and 8.0 mg/lit respectivly, also total rate of Phosphat in these regions was 0.085 and 0.15 mg/lit respectivly. This study showed that the rates of Nitrat and Amonium in "Abkenar" region was 0.043 and 0.79 mg / lit while for the same substances in "Ilendkhale" measured 0.08 and 0.7 mg I lit respective. Also the avarage rate of chlorophyll a in these two areas measured 58,38 and 40.45 j.un /ht respectivly. Depending on results of correlation cofficient in "Abkenar" region we had Cyanobacters , water and air temperature , Chlorophyll a and total amount of Phosphat as a poitive correlation with transparency while Amonium and Nitrat showed , a negative correlation , EC and finally dissolved oxygen showed a very low rate of correlation coffiocient. To perform this research 5 genus of Cyanobacteres horn "Anzali" lagoon have been isolated and cultured in a laboratorial conditions Later by using Mouse Bioassay method one of these genus identified as a toxic algae. Levels of LD50 with intra peritoneal injection of toxin on mouse in 24 hours was 660 mg/kg and Levels of LC50 by using Bioassay method on Artemia and Daphnia has been shown 618 and 1000 mg kg respectively. Also the physiological effects of were investigated. algae on two types of Cypronides family called Cyprinus carpi° and Hypophrthabnichthys Resultes of blood analyses of Cypronides who were feeded by toxic algae showed a significant decline (P < 0.05) in white and red blood cells and their hematocrites. Levels of LDH , SGOT and SGPT in their blood serum had a significant increase in porportion to control group (P < 0.05) but there was no evidance a differences in Total Protein levels. Pathological studies show damage and destruction of hepato pancreas and kidney of these fishes. Signs and symptoms of intoxication caused by Cyanobacter called Planktohrix agardlltii in mouse and fish show heptotoxic character. This toxin belongs to cyclicpeptides of microcystines group.