Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: past and future variations

Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in- (anti-) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of 10Be concentration, which are in-phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti-phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long-term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.

Cyclodextrin-mediated enhancement of riboflavin solubility and corneal permeability

Cyclodextrins are water-soluble cyclic oligosaccharides consisting of six, seven, and eight α-(1,4)-linked glucopyranose subunits. This study reports the use of different cyclodextrins in eye drop formulations to improve the aqueous solubility and corneal permeability of riboflavin. Riboflavin is a poorly soluble drug with a solubility up to 0.08 mg mL–1 in deionized water. It is used as a drug topically administered to the eye to mediate UV-induced corneal cross-linking in the treatment of keratoconus. Aqueous solutions of β-cyclodextrin (10–30 mg mL–1) can enhance the solubility of riboflavin up to 0.12–0.19 mg mL–1, whereas the higher concentration of α-cyclodextrin (100 mg mL–1) achieved a lower level of enhancement of 0.11 mg mL–1. The other oligosaccharides were found to be inefficient for this purpose. In vitro diffusion experiments performed with fresh and cryopreserved bovine cornea have demonstrated that β-cyclodextrin enhances riboflavin permeability. The mechanism of this enhancement was examined through microscopic histological analysis of the cornea and is discussed in this paper.

Does managerial turnover affect football club share prices?

This paper analyses the 53 managerial sackings and resignations from 16 stock exchange listed English football clubs during the nine seasons between 2000/01 and 2008/09. The results demonstrate that, on average, a managerial sacking results in a post-announcement day market-adjusted share price rise of 0.3%, whilst a resignation leads to a drop in share price of 1% that continues for a trading month thereafter, cumulating in a negative abnormal return of over 8% from a trading day before the event. These findings are intuitive, and suggest that sacking a poorly performing manager may be welcomed by the markets as a possible route to better future match performance, while losing a capable manager through resignation, who typically progresses to a superior job, will result in a drop in a club’s share price. The paper also reveals that while the impact of managerial departures on stock price volatilities is less clear-cut, speculation in the newspapers is rife in the build-up to such an event.

Temporal evolution and electric potential structure of the auroral acceleration region from multispacecraft measurements

Bright aurorae can be excited by the acceleration of electrons into the atmosphere in violation of ideal magnetohydrodynamics. Modelling studies predict that the accelerating electric potential consists of electric double layers at the boundaries of an acceleration region but observations suggest that particle acceleration occurs throughout this region. Using multi-spacecraft observations from Cluster we have examined two upward current regions on 14 December 2009. Our observations show that the potential difference below C4 and C3 changed by up to 1.7 kV between their respective crossings, which were separated by 150 s. The field-aligned current density observed by C3 was also larger than that observed by C4. The potential drop above C3 and C4 was approximately the same in both crossings. Using a novel technique of quantitatively comparing the electron spectra measured by Cluster 1 and 3, which were separated in altitude, we determine when these spacecraft made effectively magnetically conjugate observations and use these conjugate observations to determine the instantaneous distribution of the potential drop in the AAR. Our observations show that an average of 15% of the potential drop in the AAR was located between C1 at 6235 km and C3 at 4685 km altitude, with a maximum potential drop between the spacecraft of 500~V and that the majority of the potential drop was below C3. By assuming a spatial invariance along the length of the upward current region, we discuss these observations in terms of temporal changes and the vertical structure of the electrostatic potential drop and in the context of existing models and previous observations single- and multi-spacecraft observations.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Impact of strong deep ocean stratification on the glacial carbon cycle

During the Last Glacial Maximum, the climate was substantially colder and the carbon cycle was clearly different from the late Holocene. According to proxy data deep oceanic δ13C was very low, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration also reduced. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain these changes, but none can fully explain the data, especially the very low deep ocean δ13C values. Oceanic core data show that the deep ocean was very cold and salty, which would lead to enhanced deep ocean stratification. We show that such an enhanced stratification in the coupled climate model CLIMBER-2 helps get very low deep oceanic δ13C values. Indeed the simulated δ13C reaches values as low as −0.8‰ in line with proxy data evidences. Moreover it increases the oceanic carbon reservoir leading to a small, yet robust, atmospheric CO2 drop of approximately 10 ppm.

Impact of brine-induced stratification on the glacial carbon cycle

During the cold period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 21 000 years ago) atmospheric CO2 was around 190 ppm, much lower than the pre-industrial concentration of 280 ppm. The causes of this substantial drop remain partially unresolved, despite intense research. Understanding the origin of reduced atmospheric CO2 during glacial times is crucial to comprehend the evolution of the different carbon reservoirs within the Earth system (atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere and ocean). In this context, the ocean is believed to play a major role as it can store large amounts of carbon, especially in the abyss, which is a carbon reservoir that is thought to have expanded during glacial times. To create this larger reservoir, one possible mechanism is to produce very dense glacial waters, thereby stratifying the deep ocean and reducing the carbon exchange between the deep and upper ocean. The existence of such very dense waters has been inferred in the LGM deep Atlantic from sediment pore water salinity and δ18O inferred temperature. Based on these observations, we study the impact of a brine mechanism on the glacial carbon cycle. This mechanism relies on the formation and rapid sinking of brines, very salty water released during sea ice formation, which brings salty dense water down to the bottom of the ocean. It provides two major features: a direct link from the surface to the deep ocean along with an efficient way of setting a strong stratification. We show with the CLIMBER-2 carbon-climate model that such a brine mechanism can account for a significant decrease in atmospheric CO2 and contribute to the glacial-interglacial change. This mechanism can be amplified by low vertical diffusion resulting from the brine-induced stratification. The modeled glacial distribution of oceanic δ13C as well as the deep ocean salinity are substantially improved and better agree with reconstructions from sediment cores, suggesting that such a mechanism could have played an important role during glacial times.

Hollow capsules formed in a single stage via interfacial hydrogen-bonded complexation of methylcellulose with poly(acrylic acid) and tannic acid

Hollow capsules can be prepared in a single stage by the interfacial complexation of methylcellulose (MC) with poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) or tannic acid (TA) via hydrogen bonding in aqueous solutions. The formation of capsules is observed when viscous solution of methylcellulose is added drop-wise to diluted solutions of polyacids under acidic conditions. The optimal parameters such as polymer concentration and solution pH for the formation of these capsules were established in this work. It was found that tannic acid forms capsules in a broader range of concentrations and pHs compared to poly(acrylic acid). The TA/MC capsules exhibited better stability compared to PAA/MC in response to increase in pH: the dissolution of TA/MC capsules observed at pH > 9.5; whereas PAA/MC capsules dissolved at pH > 3.8. The interfacial complexation can be considered as a potential single stage alternative to the formation of capsules using multistage layer-by-layer deposition method.

How self-determined choice facilitates performance: a key role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex

Recent studies have documented that self-determined choice does indeed enhance performance. However, the precise neural mechanisms underlying this effect are not well understood. We examined the neural correlates of the facilitative effects of self-determined choice using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants played a game-like task involving a stopwatch with either a stopwatch they selected (self-determined-choice condition) or one they were assigned without choice (forced-choice condition). Our results showed that self-determined choice enhanced performance on the stopwatch task, despite the fact that the choices were clearly irrelevant to task difficulty. Neuroimaging results showed that failure feedback, compared with success feedback, elicited a drop in the vmPFC activation in the forced-choice condition, but not in the self-determined-choice condition, indicating that negative reward value associated with the failure feedback vanished in the self-determined-choice condition. Moreover, the vmPFC resilience to failure in the self-determined-choice condition was significantly correlated with the increased performance. Striatal responses to failure and success feedback were not modulated by the choice condition, indicating the dissociation between the vmPFC and striatal activation pattern. These findings suggest that the vmPFC plays a unique and critical role in the facilitative effects of self-determined choice on performance.

MOOC experience: a participant's reflection

In this article the author reflects on the experiences of three Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs): Edfuture (CHFE), Learning Design for 21st Century Curriculum (OLDS-MOOC), and Open Education (H817). Discussion draws on the perceived differences between OERs and MOOCs and questions the definitions of 'success', 'engagement', 'completion', and 'drop out' in a MOOC. Some lessons learnt as a participant are also discussed.

Galactic cosmic ray modulation near the heliospheric current sheet

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) both over decadal time scales (due to long-term, global HMF variations), and over time scales of a few hours (associated with solar wind structures such as coronal mass ejections or the heliospheric current sheet, HCS). Due to the close association between the HCS, the streamer belt, and the band of slow solar wind, HCS crossings are often associated with corotating interaction regions where fast solar wind catches up and compresses slow solar wind ahead of it. However, not all HCS crossings are associated with strong compressions. In this study we categorize HCS crossings in two ways: Firstly, using the change in magnetic polarity, as either away-to-toward (AT) or toward-to-away (TA) magnetic field directions relative to the Sun and, secondly, using the strength of the associated solar wind compression, determined from the observed plasma density enhancement. For each category, we use superposed epoch analyses to show differences in both solar wind parameters and GCR flux inferred from neutron monitors. For strong-compression HCS crossings, we observe a peak in neutron counts preceding the HCS crossing, followed by a large drop after the crossing, attributable to the so-called ‘snow-plough’ effect. For weak-compression HCS crossings, where magnetic field polarity effects are more readily observable, we instead observe that the neutron counts have a tendency to peak in the away magnetic field sector. By splitting the data by the dominant polarity at each solar polar region, we find that the increase in GCR flux prior to the HCS crossing is primarily from strong compressions in cycles with negative north polar fields due to GCR drift effects. Finally, we report on unexpected differences in GCR behavior between TA weak compressions during opposing polarity cycles.

An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

Simulation of a diffusion driven mobile robot

In this paper, we investigate the possibility to control a mobile robot via a sensory-motory coupling utilizing diffusion system. For this purpose, we implemented a simulation of the diffusion process of chemicals and the kinematics of the mobile robot. In comparison to the original Braitenberg vehicle in which sensorymotor coupling is tightly realised by hardwiring, our system employs the soft coupling. The mobile robot has two sets of independent sensory-motor unit, two sensors are implemented in front and two motors on each side of the robot. The framework used for the sensory-motor coupling was such that 1) Place two electrodes in the medium 2) Drop a certain amount of Chemical U and V related to the distance to the walls and the intensity of the light 3) Place other two electrodes in the medium 4) Measure the concentration of Chemical U and V to actuate the motors on both sides of the robot. The environment was constructed with four surrounding walls and a light source located at the center. Depending on the design parameters and initial conditions, the robot was able to successfully avoid the wall and light. More interestingly, the diffusion process in the sensory-motor coupling provided the robot with a simple form of memory which would not have been possible with a control framework based on a hard-wired electric circuit.

Hyperbranched polymers containing oxazoline monomers andsuccinic anhydride: applications in fast drying, low solvent coating formulations

tMelt-polycondensation of succinic acid anhydride with oxazoline-based diol monomers gave hyper-branched polymers with carboxylicacids terminal groups.1H NMR and quantitative13C NMRspectroscopy coupled with DEPT-13513C NMR experiment showed high degrees of branching (over 60%).Esterification of the acid end groups by addition of citronellol at 160◦C produced novel white spirit solubleresins which were characterized by Fourier transform-infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, gel permeation chro-matography (GPC), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Blendsof the new hyperbranched materials with commercial alkyd resins resulted in a dramatic, concentrationdependent drop in viscosity. Solvent-borne coatings were formulated containing the hyperbranchedpolymers. Dynamic mechanical analysis studies revealed that the air drying rates of the new coatingsystems were enhanced compared with identical formulations containing only commercial alkyd resins.

Rheological and electrical properties of NaY zeolite electrorheological fluid

The relations between the rheological and electrical properties of NaY zeolite electrorheological fluid and its solid phase are studied. It is found that then exist complex relations between its electrical and theological properties. The temperature spectra of dielectric properties of the fluid under high AC electric field are strongly field strength dependent. The relation between the DC conductivity of the fluid and the exciting electric field is experimentally presented as log sigma =A+BE1/2, when A is a strong function, but B, a very weak function of temperature. The shear stress of the fluid under a fixed electric field and temperature decreases with shear rate. A relaxation time for the adsorbed charges is estimated to be about 0.3 to 6.6 s in the temperature range from 280 to 380 K. The relaxation time qualitatively corresponds to the shear rate at which the shear stress begins to drop. The time dependent leaking current of the ER fluids under DC electric field is also measured. The conductivity increase is mainly caused by the structure evolution of particles. The experimental results can he explained with the calculations of Davis (J. Appl. Phys. 81(1997) pp.1985-1991) and Martin (J. Chem. Phys. 110(1999) pp.4854-4866). It is predicted that the NaY zeolite ER fluid strength would get degraded slowly.