Quantity-setting competition under uncertain demand

We consider a quantity-setting duopoly model, and we study the decision to move first or second, by assuming that. the firms produce homogeneous goods and that. there is some demand uncertainty. The competitive phase consists of two periods, and in either period, the firms can make a production decision that is irreversible. As far as the firms are allowed to choose (non-cooperatively) the period they make the decision, we study the circumstances that favour sequential rather than simultaneous decisions.

The patient safety journey in Portugal : challenges and opportunities from a public health perspective

ABSTRACT - Despite improvements in healthcare interventions, the incidence of adverse events and other patient safety problems constitutes a major contributor to the global burden of diseases and a concern for Public Health. In the last years there have been some successful individual and institutional efforts to approach patient safety issues in Portugal, unless such effort has been fragmented or focused on specific small areas. Long-term and global improvement has remained elusive, and most of all the improvement of patient safety in Portugal, must evaluate not only the efficacy of a change but also what was effective for implementing the change. Clearly, patient safety issues result from various combinations of individual, team, organization, system and patient factors. A systemic and integrated approach to promote patient safety must acknowledge and strive to understand the complexity of work systems and processes in health care, including the interactions between people, technology, and the environment. Safety errors cannot be productively attributed to a single human error. Our objective with this paper is to provide a brief overview of the status quo in patient safety in Portugal, highlighting key aspects that should be taken into account in the design of a strategy for improving patient safety. With these key aspects in mind, policy makers and implementers can move forward and make better decisions about which changes should be made and about the way the needed changes to improve patient safety should be implemented. The contribution of colleagues that are international leaders on healthcare quality and patient safety may also contribute to more innovative research methods needed to create the knowledge that promotes less costly successful changes.---- ---------------------- RESUMO – As questões relacionadas com a Segurança do Doente, e em particular, com a ocorrência de eventos adversos tem constituído, de há uns tempos a esta parte, uma crescente preocupação para as organizações de saúde, para os decisores políticos, para os profissionais de saúde e para os doentes/utentes e suas famílias, sendo por isso considerado um problema de Saúde Pública a que urge dar resposta. Em Portugal, nos últimos anos, têm sido desenvolvidos esforços baseados, maioritariamente, em iniciativas isoladas, para abordar os aspectos da Segurança do Doente. O facto de essas iniciativas não serem integradas numa estratégia explícita e de dimensão regional ou nacional, faz com que os resultados sejam parcelares e tenham visibilidade reduzida. Paralelamente, a melhoria da qualidade dos cuidados de saúde (a longo prazo) resultante dessas iniciativas tem sido esparsa e nem sempre a avaliação tem sido feita tendo em conta critérios de efectividade e de eficiência. A Segurança do Doente resulta da interacção de diversos factores relacionados, por um lado, com o doente e, por outro, com a prestação de cuidados que envolvem elementos de natureza individual (falhas activas) e organizacional/estrutural (falhas latentes). Devido à multifactorialidade que está na base de «problemas/falhas» na Segurança do Doente, qualquer abordagem a considerar deve ser sistémica e integrada. Simultaneamente, tais abordagens devem contemplar a compreensão da complexidade dos sistemas e dos processos de prestação de cuidados de saúde e as suas interdependências (envolvendo aspectos individuais, tecnológicos e ambientais). O presente trabalho tem por objectivo reflectir sobre o «estado da arte» da Segurança do Doente em Portugal, destacando os elementos-chave que se consideram decisivos para uma estratégia de acção nesse domínio. Com esses elementos os responsáveis pela governação da saúde poderão valorizar os aspectos que consideram decisivos para uma política de Segurança do Doente mais eficaz. A contribuição de quatro colegas internacionalmente reconhecidos como líderes na área da Qualidade em Saúde e da Segurança do Doente, constitui, por certo, uma oportunidade ímpar para a identificação e discussão de alguns dos principais desafios, ameaças e oportunidades que s

Childhood astrovirus-associated diarrhea in the ambulatory setting in a Public Hospital in Cordoba city, Argentina

Human astroviruses have been increasingly identified as important agents of diarrheal disease in children. However, the disease burden of astrovirus infection is still incompletely assessed. This paper reports results on the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of astrovirus-associated diarrhea, as well as the impact of astrovirus infection on the ambulatory setting at a Public Hospital in Córdoba city, Argentina. From February 2001 through January 2002, 97 randomly selected outpatient visits for diarrhea among children < 36 months old were enrolled. A single specimen of stool from each child was collected and tested for astrovirus antigen by enzyme immunoassay. Astroviruses were detected in 12.37% of the diarrheal episodes. All the positive cases occurred in children 4 to 18 months, but the highest rate was in children aged 4 to 6 months (23.80%). The clinical symptoms of astrovirus associated-diarrhea were fever 41.66%, vomiting 25.00% and dehydration 8.33%; overall 16.66% required hospitalization. Astrovirus was identified through the year and no seasonally pattern was detected (cool semester 15.21% versus warm semester 9.80% p > 0.05). According to our estimation about one out of seventy-four children in this cohort would be assisted annually for an astroviral-diarrheal episode in the Public Hospital and one out of eight diarrheal cases could be attributed to astrovirus infection. Astrovirus is a common symptomatic infection in pediatric outpatient visits in the public hospital in the study area, contributing 12.37% of the overall morbidity from diarrhea.

The frequency rate of Toxocara species contamination in soil samples from public yards in a urban area "Payathai", Bangkok, Thailand

Toxocara species are most common roundworms of Canidae and Felidae. Human toxocariasis develops by ingesting of embryonated eggs in contaminated soil. There is no previous report of Toxocara contamination in the soil samples from the public areas in Bangkok. For this reason our study have been carried out to examine the frequency of Toxocara eggs in public yards in Bangkok, Thailand. A total of 175 sand and clay samples were collected and examined for parasite eggs. According to this study, Toxocara eggs were detected from 10 (5.71%) of 175 soil samples. The high rate of contamination in this study implies the importance of the control of this possible zoonotic disease: control of abandon of dogs and cats, is still necessary.

Human papillomavirus status and cervical abnormalities in women from public and private health care in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil

This article reports the HPV status and cervical cytological abnormalities in patients attended at public and private gynecological services from Rio de Janeiro State. It also comments the performance of each HPV DNA tests used. A set of 454 women from private health clinics was tested by routine Capture Hybrid II HPV DNA assay. Among these, 58.4% presented HPV and nearly 90% of them were infected by high risk HPV types. However, this group presented few premalignant cervical lesions and no invasive cervical cancer was registered. We also studied 220 women from low income class attended at public health system. They were HPV tested by polymerase chain reaction using My09/11 primers followed by HPV typing with E6 specific primers. The overall HPV prevalence was 77.3%. They also showed a high percentage of high squamous intraepithelial lesion-HSIL (26.3%), and invasive cervical carcinoma (16.3%). HPV infection was found in 93.1% and 94.4% of them, respectively. The mean ages in both groups were 31.5 and 38 years, respectively. In series 1, HPV prevalence declined with age, data consistent with viral transient infection. In series 2, HPV prevalence did not decline, independent of age interval, supporting not only the idea of viral persistence into this group, but also regional epidemiological variations in the same geographic area. Significant cytological differences were seen between both groups. Normal and benign cases were the most prevalent cytological findings in series 1 while pre-malignant lesions were the most common diagnosis in the series 2. HPV prevalence in normal cases were statistically higher than those from series 1 (p < 0.001), indicating a higher exposure to HPV infection. Women from both samples were referred for previous abnormal cytology. However, socio-demographic evidence shows that women from series 1 have access to treatment more easily and faster than women from series 2 before the development of pre-malignant lesions. These data provides baseline support for the role of social inequalities linked to high risk HPV infection leading to cervical cancer. Broadly screening programs and the development of safe and effective vaccines against HPV would diminish the toll of this disease that affect mainly poor women.

Frequency of toxocara infection in children attended by the health public service of Maringá, south Brazil

The lack of specific laboratorial diagnosis methods and precise symptoms makes the toxocariasis a neglected disease in Public Health Services. This study aims to determine the frequency of Toxocara spp. infection in children attended by the Health Public Service of Hospital Municipal de Maringá, South Brazil. To evaluate the association of epidemiological and clinical data, an observational and cross-section study was carried out. From 14,690 attended children/year aged from seven month to 12 years old, 450 serum samples were randomly collected from September/2004 to September/2005. A questionnaire was used to evaluate epidemiological, clinical and hematological data. An ELISA using Toxocara canis larval excretory-secretory products as antigen detected 130 (28.8%) positive sera, mainly between children from seven month to five years old (p = 0.0016). Significant correlation was observed between positive serology for Toxocara, and frequent playing in sandbox at school or daycare center (p = 0.011) and the presence of a cat at home (p = 0.056). From the families, 50% were dog owners which exposed soil backyards. Eosinophilia (p = 0.776), and signs and symptoms analyzed (fever p = 0.992, pneumonia p = 0.289, cold-like symptoms p = 0.277, cough p = 0.783, gastrointestinal problems p = 0.877, migraine p = 0.979, abdominal pain p = 0.965, joint pain p = 0.686 and skin rash p = 0.105) could not be related to the presence of anti-Toxocara antibodies. Therefore, two asthmatics children showed titles of 1:10,240 and accentuated eosinophilia (p = 0.0001). The authors emphasize the needs of prevention activities.

Candiduria in a public hospital of São Paulo (1999-2004): characteristics of the yeast isolates

The study involved 100 yeast isolates, obtained from urine samples provided by a Public Pediatric Hospital of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1999 to 2004. The most frequent species was Candida albicans, followed by C. tropicalis, C. glabrata and C. parapsilosis. In regard to virulence, 97% of the isolates showed index 3 for proteinase and 63% index 2 for phospholipase. The most frequent killer biotypes were 511 and 888.

Price-setting dynamical duopoly with incomplete information

We consider a price competition in a duopoly with substitutable goods, linear and symmetric demand. There is a firm (F 1) that chooses first the price p 1 of its good; the other firm (F 2) observes p 1 and then chooses the price p 2 of its good. The conclusions of this price-setting dynamical duopoly are substantially altered by the presence of either differentiated goods or asymmetric information about rival’s production costs. In this paper, we consider asymmetric information about rival’s production costs. We do ex-ante and ex-post analyses of firms’ profits and market prices. We compare the ex-ante firms’ expected profits with the ex-post firms’ profits.

Uncertainty on a Bertrand duopoly with product differentiation

The conclusions of the Bertrand model of competition are substantially altered by the presence of either differentiated goods or asymmetric information about rival’s production costs. In this paper, we consider a Bertrand competition, with differentiated goods. Furthermore, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We do ex-ante and ex-post analyses of firms’ profits and market prices. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.

Prevalence of intestinal parasites in children from public daycare centers in the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

The objective of this study was to verify the occurrence of intestinal parasites in 3 to 6-year-old children from daycare centers maintained by the municipal government of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Coproparasitological tests performed in 472 children have shown that 24.6% of them had some type of parasites, 6.6% of the children having more than one type. Among protozoa, Entamoeba coli (14.0%) and G. duodenalis (9.5%) were the most prevalent, whereas Ascaris lumbricoides (3.0%) and Trichuris trichiura (1.1%) were the most frequent among the helminths. Thus, we can observe that intestinal parasites still represent a serious public health problem in Belo Horizonte, especially among children and in areas where the socioeconomic conditions are less favorable.

Quantity competition in a differentiated duopoly

In this paper, we consider a Stackelberg duopoly competition with differentiated goods, linear and symmetric demand and with unknown costs. In our model, the two firms play a non-cooperative game with two stages: in a first stage, firm F 1 chooses the quantity, q 1, that is going to produce; in the second stage, firm F 2 observes the quantity q 1 produced by firm F 1 and chooses its own quantity q 2. Firms choose their output levels in order to maximise their profits. We suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them following a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that there is exactly one perfect Bayesian equilibrium for this game. We analyse the variations of the expected profits with the parameters of the model, namely with the parameters of the probability distributions, and with the parameters of the demand and differentiation.

Strategic trade policy and signaling costs with differentiated goods

We consider a trade policy model, where the costs of the home firm are private information but can be signaled through the output levels of the firm to a foreign competitor and a home policymaker. We compute the separating equilibrium and the Bayesian Nash equilibrium, and we compare the subsidies, firms’ expected profits and home government’s welfare in both equilibria, for different values of the own price effect parameter.

Coalition of distributed generation units to Virtual Power Players - a game theory approach

Smart Grids (SGs) have emerged as the new paradigm for power system operation and management, being designed to include large amounts of distributed energy resources. This new paradigm requires new Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodologies considering different operation strategies and the existence of new management players such as several types of aggregators. This paper proposes a methodology to facilitate the coalition between distributed generation units originating Virtual Power Players (VPP) considering a game theory approach. The proposed approach consists in the analysis of the classifications that were attributed by each VPP to the distributed generation units, as well as in the analysis of the previous established contracts by each player. The proposed classification model is based in fourteen parameters including technical, economical and behavioural ones. Depending of the VPP strategies, size and goals, each parameter has different importance. VPP can also manage other type of energy resources, like storage units, electric vehicles, demand response programs or even parts of the MV and LV distribution network. A case study with twelve VPPs with different characteristics and one hundred and fifty real distributed generation units is included in the paper.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Seroprevalence of selected viral, bacterial and parasitic infections among inpatients of a public psychiatric hospital of Mexico

We sought to determine the frequency of serological markers of selected infections in a population of psychiatric patients in Durango City, Mexico, and to determine whether there are any epidemiological characteristics of the subjects associated with the infections. One hundred and five inpatients of a public psychiatric hospital of Durango were examined for HBsAg, anti-HCV antibodies, anti-HIV antibodies, anti-Brucella antibodies, rapid plasma reagin and anti-Cysticercus antibodies by commercially available assays. Anti-Cysticercus antibodies were confirmed by Western blot and HBsAg by neutralization assay. Epidemiological data from each participant were also obtained. Seroprevalences of HBsAg, anti-HCV, anti-HIV, anti-Brucella, rapid plasma reagin and anti-Cysticercus antibodies found were 0.0%, 4.8%, 0.9%, 0.0%, 1.9%, and 0.9%, respectively. Overall, 9 (8.6%) inpatients showed seropositivity to any infection marker. We concluded that our psychiatric inpatients have serological evidence of a number of infections. HCV is an important pathogen among our psychiatric inpatients. Health care strategies for prevention and control of infections in Mexican psychiatric patients should be considered.