Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change

This paper examines the impact of Knightian uncertainty upon optimal climate policy through the prism of a continuous-time real option modelling framework. We analytically determine optimal intertemporal climate policies under ambiguous assessments of climate damages. Additionally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the properties of the model. The results indicate that increasing Knightian uncertainty accelerates climate policy, i.e. policy makers become more reluctant to postpone the timing of climate policies into the future.

Shallow-level migmatization of gabbros in a metamorphic contact aureole, Fuerteventura Basal Complex, Canary Islands

Migmatization of gabbroic rocks at 2-3 kbar has occurred in the metamorphic contact aureole of a mafic pluton in the Fuerteventura Basal Complex (Canary Island;). Migmatites are characterized by a dense network: of closely spaced millimetre-wide leucocratic veins with perfectly preserved igneous textures. They are all relatively enriched in Al, Na I: Sr Ba, Nb, Y and the rare earth elements compared with the unaffected country rock beyond the aureole. Migmatization under such low-pressure conditions war possible because of the unusual tectonic and magmatic contact in which ii occurred. Multiple basic intrusions associated with extrusive volcanic activity created high heat flow in a small area. Alkaline and metasomatized rocks present in the country rock of the intruding pluton were leached by high-temperature fluids during contact metamorphism. These enriched fluids then favoured partial melting of the host gabbroic rocks, and contaminated both the leucosomes and melanosomes. A transpressive tectonic setting at the time of intrusion created shearing along the contact between the intrusion and its host rock. This shearing enhanced circulation of the fluids and allowed segregation of the nea-formed melts from their restite by opening tension veins into which the melts migrated. Depending on the relative timing of melt segregation and recrystallization leucosomes range in composition from a 40-60% mixture of clinopyroxene (+/- amphibole) and plagioclase to almost pure feldspathic veins. Comparable occurrences of gabbros migmatized at low pressure are expected only at a snail scale in localized areas of high heat flow in the presence of fluids, such as in. mid-ocean ridges or ocean-islands.

Domestic Violence and Football in Glasgow: Are Reference Points Relevant?

Much research suggests that sporting events can trigger domestic violence with recent evidence suggesting that pre-match expectations (which can be interpreted as reference points) play an especially important role in this relationship. In particular, unexpectedly disappointing results have been associated with large increases in domestic violence. This paper contributes to this literature using a new data set containing every domestic violence incident in Glasgow over a period of more than eight years. We find that Old Firm matches, where Glasgow rivals Celtic and Rangers play, are associated with large increases in domestic violence (regardless of the timing or the outcome of the match). Non-Old Firm matches tend to have little impact on domestic violence. Furthermore, we fi nd little evidence for the importance of reference points. Matches with disappointing outcomes, relative to pre-match expectations, are found to be associated with unusual increases in domestic violence only in a very limited set of matches.

Domestic Violence and Football in Glasgow: Are Reference Points Relevant?

Much research suggests that sporting events can trigger domestic violence with recent evidence suggesting that pre-match expectations (which can be interpreted as reference points) play an especially important role in this relationship. In particular, unexpectedly disappointing results have been associated with large increases in domestic violence. This paper contributes to this literature using a new data set containing every domestic violence incident in Glasgow over a period of more than eight years. We find that Old Firm matches, where Glasgow rivals Celtic and Rangers play, are associated with large increases in domestic violence (regardless of the timing or the outcome of the match). Non-Old Firm matches tend to have little impact on domestic violence. Furthermore, we find little evidence for the importance of reference points. Matches with disappointing outcomes, relative to pre-match expectations, are found to be associated with unusual increases in domestic violence only in a very limited set of matches.

Complexity and Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Problemsing.

I develop a model of endogenous bounded rationality due to search costs, arising implicitly from the problems complexity. The decision maker is not required to know the entire structure of the problem when making choices but can think ahead, through costly search, to reveal more of it. However, the costs of search are not assumed exogenously; they are inferred from revealed preferences through her choices. Thus, bounded rationality and its extent emerge endogenously: as problems become simpler or as the benefits of deeper search become larger relative to its costs, the choices more closely resemble those of a rational agent. For a fixed decision problem, the costs of search will vary across agents. For a given decision maker, they will vary across problems. The model explains, therefore, why the disparity, between observed choices and those prescribed under rationality, varies across agents and problems. It also suggests, under reasonable assumptions, an identifying prediction: a relation between the benefits of deeper search and the depth of the search. As long as calibration of the search costs is possible, this can be tested on any agent-problem pair. My approach provides a common framework for depicting the underlying limitations that force departures from rationality in different and unrelated decision-making situations. Specifically, I show that it is consistent with violations of timing independence in temporal framing problems, dynamic inconsistency and diversification bias in sequential versus simultaneous choice problems, and with plausible but contrasting risk attitudes across small- and large-stakes gambles.

The Impacts of Temporary and Anticipated Tourism Spending.

Part of the local economic impact of a major sporting event comes from the associated temporary tourism expenditures. Typically demand-driven Input-Output (IO) methods are used to quantify the impacts of such expenditures. However, IO modelling has specific weaknesses when measuring temporary tourism impacts; particular problems lie in its treatment of factor supplies and its lack of dynamics. Recent work argues that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis is more appropriate and this has been widely applied. Neglected in this literature however is an understanding of the role that behavioural characteristics and factor supply assumptions play in determining the economic impact of tourist expenditures, particularly where expenditures are temporary (i.e. of limited duration) and anticipated (i.e. known in advance). This paper uses a CGE model for Scotland in which agents can have myopic- or forward-looking behaviours and shows how these alternative specifications affect the timing and scale of the economic impacts from anticipated and temporary tourism expenditure. The tourism shock analysed is of a scale expected for the Commonwealth Games to be held in Glasgow in 2014. The model shows how “pre-shock” and “legacy” effects – impacts before and after the shock – arise and their quantitative importance. Using the forward-looking model the paper calculates the optimal degree of pre-announcement.

Tracking of Stepwise Ablation of Persistent Atrial Fibrillation using Synchronization of nearby Electrogams

Intracardiac organization indices such as atrial fibril- lation (AF) cycle length (AFCL) have been used to track the efficiency of stepwise catheter ablation (step-CA) of long-standing persistent AF (pers-AF), however, with lim- ited success. The timing between nearby bipolar intracar- diac electrograms (EGMs) reflects the spatial dynamics of wavelets during AF. The extent of synchronization between EGMs is an indirect measure of AF spatial organization. The synchronization between nearby EGMs during step- CA of pers-AF was evaluated using new indices based on the cross-correlation. The first one (spar(W)) quantifies the sparseness of the cross-correlation of local activation times. The second one (OI(W)) reflects the local concen- tration around the largest peak of the cross-correlation. By computing their relative evolution during step-CA until AF termination (AF-term), we found that OI(W) appeared su- perior to AFCL and spar(W) to track the effect of step-CA "en route" to AF-term.

Out of sight, out of mind? Educational outcomes of children with parents working abroad.

Impact of parental emigration on educational outcomes of children is theoretically ambiguous. Using novel data I collected on migration experience and its timing, family background and school performance of lower secondary pupils in Poland, I analyse the question empirically. Migration is mostly temporary in nature, with one parent engaging in employment abroad. As many as 63% of migrant parents have vocational qualifications, 29% graduated from high school, 4% have no qualifications and the remaining 4% graduated from university. Almost 18% of children are affected by parental migration. Perhaps surprisingly, estimates suggest that parental employment abroad has a positive immediate impact on a pupil’s grade. Parental education appears pivotal; children of high school graduates benefit most. Longer term effects appear more negative, however, suggesting that a prolonged migration significantly lowers a child’s grade. Interestingly, siblings’ foreign experiences exert a large, positive impact on pupils’ grades.

Educational spillovers and parental migration

Impacts of parental emigration on educational outcomes of children and, in turn, the children’s influence on peers are theoretically ambiguous. Using novel data I collected on migration experiences and timing, family background and school performance of lower secondary pupils in Poland, I analyse empirically whether children with parents working abroad (PWA) influence school performance of their classmates. Migration is mostly temporary in nature, with one parent engaging in employment abroad. As many as 63% of migrant parents have vocational qualifications, 29% graduated from high school, 4% have no qualifications and the remaining 4% graduated from university. Almost 18% of all children are affected by parental migration and, on average, 6.5% of pupils in a class have a parent abroad. Perhaps surprisingly, estimates suggest that pupils benefit from the presence of PWA classmates. PWA pupils whose parents graduated from high school exert the biggest positive impact on their classroom peers. Further, classmates are differently affected by PWA children; those who themselves experienced migration within the family benefit most. This positive effect is likely driven by the student level interactions or increased teachers’ commitment to classes with students from migrant families.

Testing low-altitude infrared digital photography from a mini-UAV to retrieve information for biological conservation

Satellite remote sensing imagery is used for forestry, conservation and environmental applications, but insufficient spatial resolution, and, in particular, unavailability of images at the precise timing required for a given application, often prevent achieving a fully operational stage. Airborne remote sensing has the advantage of custom-tuned sensors, resolution and timing, but its price prevents using it as a routine technique for the mentioned fields. Some Unmanned Aerial Vehicles might provide a “third way” solution as low-cost techniques for acquiring remotely sensed information, under close control of the end-user, albeit at the expense of lower quality instrumentation and instability. This report evaluates a light remote sensing system based on a remotely-controlled mini-UAV (ATMOS-3) equipped with a color infra-red camera (VEGCAM-1) designed and operated by CATUAV. We conducted a testing mission over a Mediterranean landscape dominated by an evergreen woodland of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) and (Holm) oak (Quercus ilex) in the Montseny National Park (Catalonia, NE Spain). We took advantage of state-of-the-art ortho-rectified digital aerial imagery (acquired by the Institut Cartogràfic de Catalunya over the area during the previous year) and used it as quality reference. In particular, we paid attention to: 1) Operationality of flight and image acquisition according to a previously defined plan; 2) Radiometric and geometric quality of the images; and 3) Operational use of the images in the context of applications. We conclude that the system has achieved an operational stage regarding flight activities, although with meteorological limits set by wind speed and turbulence. Appropriate landing areas can be sometimes limiting also, but the system is able to land on small and relatively rough terrains such as patches of grassland or short matorral, and we have operated the UAV as far as 7 km from the control unit. Radiometric quality is sufficient for interactive analysis, but probably insufficient for automated processing. A forthcoming camera is supposed to greatly improve radiometric quality and consistency. Conventional GPS positioning through time synchronization provides coarse orientation of the images, with no roll information.

Pragmatic approach to nutrition in the ICU: Expert opinion regarding which calorie protein target.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Since the publications of the ESPEN guidelines on enteral and parenteral nutrition in ICU, numerous studies have added information to assist the nutritional management of critically ill patients regarding the recognition of the right population to feed, the energy-protein targeting, the route and the timing to start. METHODS: We reviewed and discussed the literature related to nutrition in the ICU from 2006 until October 2013. RESULTS: To identify safe, minimal and maximal amounts for the different nutrients and at the different stages of the acute illness is necessary. These amounts might be specific for different phases in the time course of the patient's illness. The best approach is to target the energy goal defined by indirect calorimetry. High protein intake (1.5 g/kg/d) is recommended during the early phase of the ICU stay, regardless of the simultaneous calorie intake. This recommendation can reduce catabolism. Later on, high protein intake remains recommended, likely combined with a sufficient amount of energy to avoid proteolysis. CONCLUSIONS: Pragmatic recommendations are proposed to practically optimize nutritional therapy based on recent publications. However, on some issues, there is insufficient evidence to make expert recommendations.

A role for clock genes in sleep homeostasis.

The timing and quality of both sleep and wakefulness are thought to be regulated by the interaction of two processes. One of these two processes keeps track of the prior sleep-wake history and controls the homeostatic need for sleep while the other sets the time-of-day that sleep preferably occurs. The molecular pathways underlying the latter, circadian process have been studied in detail and their key role in physiological time-keeping has been well established. Analyses of sleep in mice and flies lacking core circadian clock gene proteins have demonstrated, however, that besides disrupting circadian rhythms, also sleep homeostatic processes were affected. Subsequent studies revealed that sleep loss alters both the mRNA levels and the specific DNA-binding of the key circadian transcriptional regulators to their target sequences in the mouse brain. The fact that sleep loss impinges on the very core of the molecular circadian circuitry might explain why both inadequate sleep and disrupted circadian rhythms can similarly lead to metabolic pathology. The evidence for a role for clock genes in sleep homeostasis will be reviewed here.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Unexpectedly late expression of intracellular CD3epsilon and TCR gammadelta proteins during adult thymus development.

During adult thymus development immature CD4(-)CD8(-) [double-negative (DN)] precursor cells pass through four phenotypically distinct stages defined by expression of CD44 and CD25: CD44(hi)CD25(-) (DN1), CD44(hi)CD25(+) (DN2), CD44(lo)CD25(+) (DN3) and CD44(lo)CD25(-) (DN4). Although it is well established that the TCR beta, gamma and delta genes are rearranged and expressed in association with the CD3 components in DN thymocytes, the precise timing of expression of the TCR and CD3 proteins has not been determined. In this report we have utilized a sensitive intracellular (ic) staining technique to analyze the expression of ic CD3epsilon, TCR beta and TCR gammadelta proteins in immature DN subsets. As expected from previous studies of TCR beta rearrangement and mRNA expression, icTCR beta(+) cells were first detected in the DN3 subset and their proportion increased thereafter. Surprisingly, however, both icCD3epsilon(+) and icTCR gammadelta(+) cells were detected at later stages of development than was predicted by molecular studies. In particular icCD3epsilon protein expression coincided with the transition from the DN2 to DN3 stage of development, whereas icTCR gammadelta protein expression was only detected in a minor subset of DN4 cells. The implications of these findings for alphabeta lineage divergence will be discussed.

T cell derived cytokines in lung-phase immunity to Schistosoma mansoni

In C57Bl/6 strain mice vaccinated with radiation-attenuated cercariae of Schistosoma mansoni immune elimination of challenge parasites occurs in the lungs. Leococytes were recovered from the lungs of such mice by bronchoalveolar lavage and cultured in vitro with larval antigen; the profile of cytokines released was then analyzed. From 14 days after vaccination, BAL cultures contained infiltrating lymphocytes wich produced abundant quantitties of IFN-g and IL-3. Challenge of vaccinated mice resulted in a second influx of IFN-g nd IL-3- producing cells, earlier than after vaccination or in the appropriate contropls. Ablation studies revealed that CD4+ T cells were the source of IFN-g. The timing of cytokine production after vaccination, and challenge was coincident with the phases of macrophage activation previously reported. At no time could lymphocytes in BAL cultures to stimulated to proliferate with either larval Ag or mitogen, in contrast to splenocytes from the same mice. Furthermore, T cell growth factor activity was not detected in BAL cultures stimulated with Ag. We suggest that the lymphocytes recruited to the lungs are memory/effector cells, When Ag. released challenge schistosomula is presented to these cells, they respond by secreting cytokines wich mediate the formation of cellular aggregates around the parasites, blocking their onward migration.