Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Passive Fault-Tolerance Management in Component-based Embedded Systems

It is imperative to accept that failures can and will occur, even in meticulously designed distributed systems, and design proper measures to counter those failures. Passive replication minimises resource consumption by only activating redundant replicas in case of failures, as typically providing and applying state updates is less resource demanding than requesting execution. However, most existing solutions for passive fault tolerance are usually designed and configured at design time, explicitly and statically identifying the most critical components and their number of replicas, lacking the needed flexibility to handle the runtime dynamics of distributed component-based embedded systems. This paper proposes a cost-effective adaptive fault tolerance solution with a significant lower overhead compared to a strict active redundancy-based approach, achieving a high error coverage with the minimum amount of redundancy. The activation of passive replicas is coordinated through a feedback-based coordination model that reduces the complexity of the needed interactions among components until a new collective global service solution is determined, improving the overall maintainability and robustness of the system.

Impact of Supplier Management Strategies on the Organizational Performance of ISO 9001 Certified Organizations

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to discuss the impact of Supplier orientation and the resulting Supply Chain Management (SCM) approach, on the organizational performance of ISO 9001 Quality Management Systems certified organizations. Methodology/Approach: Following a literature review, a full structural conceptual model was proposed. An online survey was administered to managers of Portuguese organizations with certified ISO 9001 Quality Management Systems. Descriptive Statistics and Structural Model Equations were used to validate the proposed conceptual model. Findings: There are positive relationships between Organization Strategy and Supplier Orientation, between Supplier Orientation and Stakeholders Satisfaction, and between Stakeholders Satisfaction and Organizational Performance Orientation, supporting ISO 9001:2015. These findings provide insights that supplier orientation, mediated by stakeholder satisfaction, is an essential tool for organizational competitive sustainable advantage. Research Limitation/implication: The analysis was based on managers of ISO 9001 certified organizations perceptions, so additional studies with actual data and longitudinal studies should be useful for further validation. Originality/Value of paper: The importance of the overall organizational ecosystem is highlighted with potential impact on the more than 1 Million ISO 9001 organizations certified worldwide and in their suppliers.

Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

Thesis submitted to the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering

The ABC model for telework in Portugal

The principal aim of this paper is to develop a simple and objective model which can classify an systematise telework, and provide a standard for Portugal. This model defines special concepts of telework and allows the division of the activity in this area, making its application easier. The model was constructed on the basis of four perspectives which it has to cover: the economic and social, of the employers, of the teleworkers and the suppliers of goods and services.

A Quantitative Model for Decomposing & Assessing the Value for the Customer

The research presented in this paper proposes a novel quantitative model for decomposing and assessing the Value for the Customer. The proposed approach builds on the different dimensions of the Value Network analysis proposed by Verna Allee having as background the concept of Value for the Customer proposed by Woodall. In this context, the Value for the Customer is modelled as a relationship established between the exchanged deliverables and a combination of tangible and intangible assets projected into their endogenous or exogenous dimensions. The Value Network Analysis of the deliverables exchange enables an in-depth understanding of this frontier and the implicit modelling of co-creation scenarios. The proposed Conceptual Model for Decomposing Value for the Customer combines several concepts: from the marketing area we have the concept of Value for the Customer; from the area of intellectual capital the concept of Value Network Analysis; from the collaborative networks area we have the perspective of the enterprise life cycle and the endogenous and exogenous perspectives; at last, the proposed model is supported by a mathematical formal description that stems from the area of Multi-Criteria Decision Making. The whole concept is illustrated in the context of a case study of an enterprise in the footwear industry (Pontechem). The merits of this approach seem evident from the contact with Pontechem as it provides a structured approach for the enterprises to assess the adequacy of their value proposition to the client/customer needs and how these relate to their endogenous and/or exogenous tangible or intangible assets. The proposed model, as a tool, may therefore be a useful instrument in supporting the commercialisation of new products and/or services.

Risk-based decision support system for life cycle management of industrials plants

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Integration of crowdsourced information with traditional crises and disaster management information using linked data

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Social BPM – The role of social networks in business process management

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Pandemia influenza A/H1N1 2009 em Portugal : estratégias de intervenção e saúde pública

RESUMO - Introdução: A necessidade de gestão da ameaça de uma pandemia obriga à gestão da incerteza absoluta. O desconhecimento científico quanto a uma série de factores tais como, as características dos vírus causadores de infecções, a efectividade das medidas de prevenção e de tratamento, contribuiu para a dificuldade de actuação a vários níveis. Face à evolução da situação epidemiológica mundial no campo da gripe, Portugal reviu e adaptou o seu plano de contingência para a gripe tendo sido homologado, em Janeiro de 2006, um novo plano – Plano de Contingência Nacional do Sector da Saúde para a Pandemia. Objectivos: O presente estudo apresenta como principais objectivos (1) a avaliação das estratégias de intervenção e respectiva implementação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, durante a pandemia da gripe de 2009; (2) a identificação dos pontos críticos na gestão das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, para preparação e resposta a futuras pandemias da gripe e, por último, (3) a definição de um modelo de acompanhamento, de monitorização e de avaliação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, que permita identificar os pontos importantes a ter em conta na implementação de boas práticas de saúde pública, nos diferentes níveis de prestação de cuidados de saúde, tendo como limitação o estado da arte dos sistemas de informação e avaliação, nacionais e internacionais, existentes. Material e Métodos: Para a avaliação das estratégias de intervenção e respectiva implementação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas bem como, para a identificação dos pontos críticos na gestão das respectivas medidas foram consideradas duas perspectivas: a avaliação dos resultados através do Relatório da Pandemia da Gripe e a avaliação dos resultados através das avaliações da OMS e da Euro OMS. É apresentado um modelo de acompanhamento, de monitorização e de avaliação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, a implementar na classe médica que esteve na “linha da frente”, durante a pandemia H1N1 2009 em Portugal, nos cuidados primários, hospitalares e intensivos. Resultados: Deverá existir uma representação dos profissionais de saúde para suporte das decisões de forma a assegurar uma representação alargada não só na preparação mas também, na implementação e na aplicação do Plano de Contingência. O processo de planemanto deverá ter acesso público com possibilidade de participação activa do cidadão na sua implementação. O Plano deve ter a capacidade para se adaptar à situação epidemiológica e, no terreno os exercícios de simulações durante o processo de planeamento são importantes. As orientações técnicas devem ser dinâmicas, práticas, específicas e úteis e, dever-se investir numa cultura de confiança (“right people communicating to right people”). As alterações ao plano devem partir da coordenação, comando e controlo que, nos vários níveis de decisão, devem definir claramente quem toma as decisões. Conclusões: As estratégias para as intervenções ao nível da saúde pública, continuam, no mundo hodierno a desempenhar um papel fundamental e crucial na contenção das pandemias. O modelo apresentado neste estudo procura uma abordagem objectiva para destacar não só, os elementos essenciais de actividades bem-sucedidas, mas também as áreas em que a experiência pandémica sugere que o futuro planeamento deve dar maior ênfase.

NEGOSEIO: framework for the sustainability of model-oriented enterprise interoperability

Dissertation to obtain the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Electrical and Computer Engineering(Industrial Information Systems)

Parametric portfolio policies: An application for a global tactical asset allocation model

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

What do people do at work when they are not working?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

What do people do at work when they're not working?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics