Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English up to 2010. Data synthesis: The review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Ambient temperature and morbidity: A review of epidemiological evidence

OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity. It assesses the methodological issues in previous studies, and proposes future research directions. DATA SOURCES AND DATA EXTRACTION: We searched the PubMed database for epidemiological studies on ambient temperature and morbidity of non-communicable diseases published in refereed English journals prior to June 2010. 40 relevant studies were identified. Of these, 24 examined the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity, 15 investigated the short-term effects of heatwave on morbidity, and 1 assessed both temperature and heatwave effects. DATA SYNTHESIS: Descriptive and time-series studies were the two main research designs used to investigate the temperature–morbidity relationship. Measurements of temperature exposure and health outcomes used in these studies differed widely. The majority of studies reported a significant relationship between ambient temperature and total or cause-specific morbidities. However, there were some inconsistencies in the direction and magnitude of non-linear lag effects. The lag effect of hot temperature on morbidity was shorter (several days) compared to that of cold temperature (up to a few weeks). The temperature–morbidity relationship may be confounded and/or modified by socio-demographic factors and air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant short-term effect of ambient temperature on total and cause-specific morbidities. However, further research is needed to determine an appropriate temperature measure, consider a diverse range of morbidities, and to use consistent methodology to make different studies more comparable.

Private supervisors of learner drivers and Queensland's graduated driver licensing system : how important are they?

Background: A key element of graduated driver licensing systems is the level of support provided by parents. In mid-2007 changes were made to Queensland’s graduated driver licensing system, including amendments to the learner licence with one of the more significant changes requiring learners to record 100 hours of supervised driving practice in a logbook. Prior to mid-2007, there was no minimum supervision requirement. Aims: The aim of this study was to document the experiences of the supervisors of Queensland learner drivers after the changes made to the graduated driver licensing system in mid-2007. Methods: The sample of 552 supervisors of learner drivers was recruited using a combination of convenience and snowball sampling techniques. The internet survey was open for completion between July 2009 and May 2010 and took approximately 15 to 20 minutes for participants to complete. Results: For 59.7 per cent of the participants, this was the first time that they had supervised a learner driver. For 63.2 per cent, they classified themselves as the main supervisor for the learner driver. Participants provided an average of 79.62 hours of supervision (sd = 92.38), while other private supervisors provided 34.89 hours of supervision (sd = 41.74) to the same learner and professional driving instructors 18.55 hours of supervision (sd = 27.54). The vast majority of supervisors recorded all or most of the practice that they provided their learner driver in their log book with most supervisors indicating that they believed that the hours recorded in the learner’s logbook were either accurate or very accurate. While many supervisors stated that they did not receive any advice regarding the supervision of learner drivers, some had received advice from others such as friends or through discussions with a professional driving instructor. Discussion and conclusions: While graduated driver licensing systems implicitly encourage the involvement of parents and other private supervisors, these people tend not to be systematically involved. As demonstrated in this study, private supervisors provide a significant amount of supervised practice and seek to record this practice accurately and honestly in the learner’s logbook. However, even though a significant number of participants reported that this was the first time that they had supervised a learner driver, they accessed little support or guidance for their role. This suggests a need to more overtly encourage and support the role of private supervisors for learner drivers.

An application of the Health Belief Model to understanding use of child restraint practices

Aims Multi-method study including two parts: Study One: three sets of observations in two regional areas of Queensland Study Two: two sets of parent intercept interviews conducted in Toowoomba, Queensland. The aim of Study Two is to determine parents’ views, opinions and knowledge of child restraint practices and the Queensland legislative amendment.

Automated cross-lingual link discovery in Wikipedia

At NTCIR-9, we participated in the cross-lingual link discovery (Crosslink) task. In this paper we describe our approaches to discovering Chinese, Japanese, and Korean (CJK) cross-lingual links for English documents in Wikipedia. Our experimental results show that a link mining approach that mines the existing link structure for anchor probabilities and relies on the “translation” using cross-lingual document name triangulation performs very well. The evaluation shows encouraging results for our system.

Overview of the NTCIR-9 crosslink task : cross-lingual link discovery

This paper presents an overview of NTCIR-9 Cross-lingual Link Discovery (Crosslink) task. The overview includes: the motivation of cross-lingual link discovery; the Crosslink task definition; the run submission specification; the assessment and evaluation framework; the evaluation metrics; and the evaluation results of submitted runs. Cross-lingual link discovery (CLLD) is a way of automatically finding potential links between documents in different languages. The goal of this task is to create a reusable resource for evaluating automated CLLD approaches. The results of this research can be used in building and refining systems for automated link discovery. The task is focused on linking between English source documents and Chinese, Korean, and Japanese target documents.

The effectiveness of cross-lingual link discovery

This paper describes the evaluation in benchmarking the effectiveness of cross-lingual link discovery (CLLD). Cross lingual link discovery is a way of automatically finding prospective links between documents in different languages, which is particularly helpful for knowledge discovery of different language domains. A CLLD evaluation framework is proposed for system performance benchmarking. The framework includes standard document collections, evaluation metrics, and link assessment and evaluation tools. The evaluation methods described in this paper have been utilised to quantify the system performance at NTCIR-9 Crosslink task. It is shown that using the manual assessment for generating gold standard can deliver a more reliable evaluation result.

Deviant knowledge : criminology, politics and policy

The “political” dynamics and the details of conducting criminological research on a day-to-day basis are examined. The role of government and commercial contracts in contemporary criminological scholarship are explored, as well as the various obstacles that criminologists must negotiate during the completion of a research project. The criminological implications of the ways in which academic environments are changing under new managerialist philosophies are examined. The ways in which notions of “critique” have become subordinate to the politics of existing governing rationalities are also examined. Chapter 1 details the questions, contours, and methods of “deviant knowledge.” Chapter 2 discusses the contours of criminological knowledge, including early criminological developments, international reconstruction and developments in criminological research following World War II, the United Nations, and the rise of critical genres. Chapter 3 explores criminology, government, and public policy, including the policies of the Home Office of England and Wales; the National Institute of Justice in Washington, DC; and the Australian Institute of Criminology in Canberra. The politics and control of criminological knowledge are discussed in chapter 4, along with ethical and legal issues, gathering and accessing data, and publishing results of research. Chapter 5 describes the “War on Terror” and government intolerance and suppression of free speech. Chapter 6 examines the new modes of governance and the commercialization of criminological knowledge. Chapter 7 discusses intellectual independence and collective concern, and the value of critique. 3 appendices, 546 references, index

Its place in property education : where does property law fit into property programs?

Property law is one of the key elements in any property-based degree program. In particular, an understanding of 'property law' is one of the required knowledge fields for inclusion in property programs accredited by professional institutes such as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, the Appraisal Institute and the Australian Property Institute. Despite the importance of property law as a cornerstone element of all property programs this aspect of the program is often approached from a more generic legal perspective with teaching resources used and pedagogical approach more aligned to the study of law that property. The specificity of this type of program is rarely adequately acknowledged. The question arises as to what the study of 'property law' entails and what the composition of a 'property law' subject should be. Replicating the methodology used by Placid and Weeks (2009) in their examination of the current composition of real estate law courses in the United States, this paper examines the current composition and pedagogical approach adopted by Australian universities based on the study of three Queensland property programs. In particular the curriculum, teaching resources used, assessment and engagement strategies are considered with a view to making improvements to the way these property law courses can be more effectively tailored to property students. It is anticipated that the outcomes of this paper will be of interest to all academics who are responsible for developing and delivering property law subjects and those who manage property programs in Australia and internationally.

An estimation of crash risks using a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique

Prevention and safety promotion programmes. Traditionally, in-depth investigations of crash risks are conducted using exposure controlled study or case-control methodology. However, these studies need either observational data for control cases or exogenous exposure data like vehicle-kilometres travel, entry flow or product of conflicting flow for a particular traffic location, or a traffic site. These data are not readily available and often require extensive data collection effort on a system-wide basis. Aim: The objective of this research is to propose an alternative methodology to investigate crash risks of a road user group in different circumstances using readily available traffic police crash data. Methods: This study employs a combination of a log-linear model and the quasi-induced exposure technique to estimate crash risks of a road user group. While the log-linear model reveals the significant interactions and thus the prevalence of crashes of a road user group under various sets of traffic, environmental and roadway factors, the quasi-induced exposure technique estimates relative exposure of that road user in the same set of explanatory variables. Therefore, the combination of these two techniques provides relative measures of crash risks under various influences of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions. The proposed methodology has been illustrated using Brisbane motorcycle crash data of five years. Results: Interpretations of results on different combination of interactive factors show that the poor conspicuity of motorcycles is a predominant cause of motorcycle crashes. Inability of other drivers to correctly judge the speed and distance of an oncoming motorcyclist is also evident in right-of-way violation motorcycle crashes at intersections. Discussion and Conclusions: The combination of a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique is a promising methodology and can be applied to better estimate crash risks of other road users. This study also highlights the importance of considering interaction effects to better understand hazardous situations. A further study on the comparison between the proposed methodology and case-control method would be useful.

The role of cultural beliefs in contributing to risky road use behaviour in Pakistan

Background Pakistan has the highest population rate of road fatalities in South Asia (25.3 fatalities per 100,000 people: Global Status Report on Road Safety, WHO 2009). Along with road environment and vehicle factors, human factors make a substantial contribution to traffic safety in Pakistan. Beliefs about road crash causation and prevention have been demonstrated to contribute to risky road use behaviour and resistance to preventive measures in a handful of other developing countries, but has not been explored in Pakistan. In particular, fatalism (whether based on religion, other cultural beliefs or experience) has been highlighted as a barrier to achieving changes in attitudes and behaviour. Aims The research reported here aimed (i) to explore perceptions of road crash causation among policy makers, police officers, professional drivers and car drivers in Pakistan; (ii) to identify how cultural and religious beliefs influence road use behaviour in Pakistan; and (iii) to understand how fatalistic beliefs may work as obstacles to road safety interventions. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted by the primary author (mostly in Urdu) in Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad with 12 professional drivers (taxi, bus and truck), 4 car drivers, 6 police officers, 4 policy makers and 2 religious orators. All but two were Muslim, two were female, and they were drawn from a wide range of ages (24 to 60) and educational backgrounds. The interviews were taped and transcribed, then translated into English and analysed for themes related to the aims. Results Fatalism emerged as a pervasive belief utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. These beliefs were not limited to people of poor educational background or position. A particular issue which was explored in more detail was the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. Discussion and conclusions The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which is difficult to change. The promotion of an evidence-based approach to road user behaviour is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

Factors influencing speeding in school zones : the role of mindfulness

Background Excessive speed contributes to the incidence and severity of road crashes. The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) has successfully explained variance in speeding intentions and behaviour. However, studies have shown that more than 40% of the variance in outcome measures of speeding remains unexplained, thus, suggesting additional constructs may help to enhance the TPB’s predictive power. Therefore, this study examined mindfulness; a promising construct which has not yet been tested as an additional TPB predictor. Aims The aims of this study were to explore drivers’ beliefs about speeding in school zones using the extended TPB as a framework and to examine the effect that mindfulness had on driver speeding behaviour in school zones. Methods Australian drivers (N = 17) participated in one of four focus group discussions. The overall sample was comprised of five males and twelve females who were aged between 17 to56 years. All participants were recruited via purposive sampling among 1st year psychology students at a large South East Queensland University. The group discussions took approximately one hour and were guided by a structured interview schedule which sought to elicit drivers’ beliefs, thoughts and opinions on speeding in school zones and the factors which motivate such behaviour. Results Overall, thematic analysis revealed some similar issues emerged across the groups. . In particular and perhaps somewhat unsurprisingly, given public concerns regarding the want to ensure the safety of school children, there was much agreement that speeding in school zones was dangerous and unacceptable. Somewhat paradoxically however, some participants also agreed that they had unintentionally or mindlessly sped in school zones. There were several factors that drivers believed influenced their speeding in school zones including their current mood (e.g., if in a bad mood, anxious, or excited they may be more likely to drive without awareness of, and being attentive to, their driving environment) and the extent to which they were familiar with the environment (i.e., more familiar contexts, more likely to drive mindlessly). Thus, although drivers expressed a belief that speeding in school zones was dangerous and acceptable, the extent to which a driver is mindful does influence whether or not a driver may actually engage in speeding in this context. Discussion and conclusions This study highlights the potential role of mindfulness in helping to explain speeding behaviour in school zones. Mindless drivers may speed unintentionally and while unintentional still be endangering the safety and lives of school children. The findings of this research suggest that unintentional speeding, especially in school zones, may be reduced by countermeasures which heighten the extent to which drivers are mindful of approaching and/or driving through a school zone, such as street markings and engineering measures (e.g.,flashing lights and speed bumps).

AEHRC & QUT at TREC 2011 Medical Track : a concept-based information retrieval approach

The Australian e-Health Research Centre and Queensland University of Technology recently participated in the TREC 2011 Medical Records Track. This paper reports on our methods, results and experience using a concept-based information retrieval approach. Our concept-based approach is intended to overcome specific challenges we identify in searching medical records. Queries and documents are transformed from their term-based originals into medical concepts as de ned by the SNOMED-CT ontology. Results show our concept-based approach performed above the median in all three performance metrics: bref (+12%), R-prec (+18%) and Prec@10 (+6%).

Evaluation of precision time synchronisation methods for substation applications

Many substation applications require accurate time-stamping. The performance of systems such as Network Time Protocol (NTP), IRIG-B and one pulse per second (1-PPS) have been sufficient to date. However, new applications, including IEC 61850-9-2 process bus and phasor measurement, require accuracy of one microsecond or better. Furthermore, process bus applications are taking time synchronisation out into high voltage switchyards where cable lengths may have an impact on timing accuracy. IEEE Std 1588, Precision Time Protocol (PTP), is the means preferred by the smart grid standardisation roadmaps (from both the IEC and US National Institute of Standards and Technology) of achieving this higher level of performance, and integrates well into Ethernet based substation automation systems. Significant benefits of PTP include automatic path length compensation, support for redundant time sources and the cabling efficiency of a shared network. This paper benchmarks the performance of established IRIG-B and 1-PPS synchronisation methods over a range of path lengths representative of a transmission substation. The performance of PTP using the same distribution system is then evaluated and compared to the existing methods to determine if the performance justifies the additional complexity. Experimental results show that a PTP timing system maintains the synchronising performance of 1-PPS and IRIG-B timing systems, when using the same fibre optic cables, and further meets the needs of process buses in large substations.