The system-wide impacts of the external benefits to higher education on the Scottish economy: An exploratory “micro-to-macro” approach

The private market benefits of education, i.e. the wage premia of graduates, are widely studied at the micro level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education, which are less well understood but could potentially drive significant macroeconomic impacts. Following the taxonomy of McMahon (2009) we identify four different types of benefits of education. These are: private market benefits (wage premia); private non market benefits (own health, happiness, etc.); external market benefits (productivity spillovers; and external non-market benefits (crime rates, civic society, democratisation, etc.). Drawing on available microeconometric evidence we use a micro-to-macro simulation approach (Hermannsson et al, 2010) to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of external benefits of higher education. We explore four cases: technology spillovers from HEIs; productivity spillovers from more skilled workers in the labour market; reduction in property crime; and the potential overall impact of external and private non-market benefits. Our results suggest that the external economic benefits of higher education could potentially be very large. However, given the dearth of microeconomic evidence this result should be seen as tentative. Our aim is to illustrate the links from education to the wider economy in principle and encourage further research in the field.

The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach

This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

Structured RNAs in the ENCODE selected regions of the human genome.

Functional RNA structures play an important role both in the context of noncoding RNA transcripts as well as regulatory elements in mRNAs. Here we present a computational study to detect functional RNA structures within the ENCODE regions of the human genome. Since structural RNAs in general lack characteristic signals in primary sequence, comparative approaches evaluating evolutionary conservation of structures are most promising. We have used three recently introduced programs based on either phylogenetic-stochastic context-free grammar (EvoFold) or energy directed folding (RNAz and AlifoldZ), yielding several thousand candidate structures (corresponding to approximately 2.7% of the ENCODE regions). EvoFold has its highest sensitivity in highly conserved and relatively AU-rich regions, while RNAz favors slightly GC-rich regions, resulting in a relatively small overlap between methods. Comparison with the GENCODE annotation points to functional RNAs in all genomic contexts, with a slightly increased density in 3'-UTRs. While we estimate a significant false discovery rate of approximately 50%-70% many of the predictions can be further substantiated by additional criteria: 248 loci are predicted by both RNAz and EvoFold, and an additional 239 RNAz or EvoFold predictions are supported by the (more stringent) AlifoldZ algorithm. Five hundred seventy RNAz structure predictions fall into regions that show signs of selection pressure also on the sequence level (i.e., conserved elements). More than 700 predictions overlap with noncoding transcripts detected by oligonucleotide tiling arrays. One hundred seventy-five selected candidates were tested by RT-PCR in six tissues, and expression could be verified in 43 cases (24.6%).

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Structured and unstructured continuous models for Wolbachia infections

We introduce and investigate a series of models for an infection of a diplodiploid host species by the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The continuous models are characterized by partial vertical transmission, cytoplasmic incompatibility and fitness costs associated with the infection. A particular aspect of interest is competitions between mutually incompatible strains. We further introduce an age-structured model that takes into account different fertility and mortality rates at different stages of the life cycle of the individuals. With only a few parameters, the ordinary differential equation models exhibit already interesting dynamics and can be used to predict criteria under which a strain of bacteria is able to invade a population. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the age-structured model shows significant differences concerning the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions compared to the unstructured model.

Semigroup analysis of structured populations with distributed states-at-birth arising in mathematical aquaculture

Motivated by the modelling of structured parasite populations in aquaculture we consider a class of physiologically structured population models, where individuals may be recruited into the population at different sizes in general. That is, we consider a size-structured population model with distributed states-at-birth. The mathematical model which describes the evolution of such a population is a first order nonlinear partial integro-differential equation of hyperbolic type. First, we use positive perturbation arguments and utilise results from the spectral theory of semigroups to establish conditions for the existence of a positive equilibrium solution of our model. Then we formulate conditions that guarantee that the linearised system is governed by a positive quasicontraction semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. We also show that the governing linear semigroup is eventually compact, hence growth properties of the semigroup are determined by the spectrum of its generator. In case of a separable fertility function we deduce a characteristic equation and investigate the stability of equilibrium solutions in the general case using positive perturbation arguments.

Cured by tonsillectomy: was it really a PFAPA syndrome?

We show how an ultrafast pump-pump excitation induces strong fluorescence depletion in biological samples, such as bacteria-containing droplets, in contrast with fluorescent interferents, such as polycyclic aromatic compounds, despite similar spectroscopic properties. Application to the optical remote discrimination of biotic versus non-biotic particles is proposed. Further improvement is required to allow the discrimination of one pathogenic among other non-pathogenic micro-organisms. This improved selectivity may be reached with optimal coherent control experiments, as discussed in the paper.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Stochastic demography and the neutral substitution rate in class-structured populations.

The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.

Oscillations in a molecular structured cell population model

We consider a nonlinear cyclin content structured model of a cell population divided into proliferative and quiescent cells. We show, for particular values of the parameters, existence of solutions that do not depend on the cyclin content. We make numerical simulations for the general case obtaining, for some values of the parameters convergence to the steady state but also oscillations of the population for others.

Morphological features of collagen degradation in advanced hepatic schistosomiasis of man

Optical and electron microscopical evidences of focal matrix degradation were frequently seen in liver sections taken from patients with periportal ("pipe-stem") fibrosis caused by schistosomiasis mansoni. Besides present of focal areas of rarefaction, fragmentation and dispersion of collagen fibers, the enlargend portal spaces also showed hyperplasia of elastic tisue and disarray of smooth muscle fibers following the destrution of portal vein branches. Ultrastructural cahnges represented by focal lytic and/or electron dense alterations of colagen fibrils were similar to those first seen in experimental material and designated as "chronic collagen degradation". Elastin and related microfibrils were also affected by focal condensation, fragmentation, distorsion and dissolution. Schistosome eggs were scanty in the tissue sections examined. Matrix degradation represented involuting changes related to the progressive diminution of parasite aggression, which occurs spontaneously with age or after cure by chemotherapy. Changes of focal matrix degradation now being described represent the basic morphological counterpart of periportal fibrosis involution documented clinically, especially by ultrasonography, in patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis submitted to curative chemotherapy.