Kalman filter for computational market dynamics

Kalman filter is a recursive mathematical power tool that plays an increasingly vital role in innumerable fields of study. The filter has been put to service in a multitude of studies involving both time series modelling and financial time series modelling. Modelling time series data in Computational Market Dynamics (CMD) can be accomplished using the Jablonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model. Maximum likelihood approach has always been utilised to estimate the parameters of the JCM model. The purpose of this study is to discover if the Kalman filter can be effectively utilized in CMD. Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), with 50 ensemble members, applied to US sugar prices spanning the period of January, 1960 to February, 2012 was employed for this work. The real data and Kalman filter trajectories showed no significant discrepancies, hence indicating satisfactory performance of the technique. Since only US sugar prices were utilized, it would be interesting to discover the nature of results if other data sets are employed.

Foreign companies’ strategies on the Russian market during the crisis

Concept of crisis is the subject of many studies and publications in specialized articles and in journalistic publications. The thesis includes next key objectives: concept of the crisis is defined, disclosed external and internal factors affected company’s strategy, shown specific characteristics of Russian market and their influence on the foreign companies. The Master’s Thesis identifies successful foreign companies’ strategies on the Russian market during crises in 2008 and 2014. The study is qualitative and it is based on integrative analysis of literature, secondary data and results of the interview, conducted among foreign companies that operates on the Russian market Findings of the thesis show an effect of the crisis on the company’s strategy. It provides information about specific external and internal factors that affects on company’s strategy during the crisis. Theoretical findings help to understand complex concept of crisis and its main aspects in context of strategy. Analysis of specific characteristics of Russian market provides a base for assessment of efficiency of chosen strategy. Comparison between Russian cresses and companies behaviors in these periods shows how different is strategy because of the nature of the crisis. Results of the thesis could be used as a guideline for foreign companies in Russian market during the crisis period

Visual analytics for behavioral and niche market segmentation

Companies require information in order to gain an improved understanding of their customers. Data concerning customers, their interests and behavior are collected through different loyalty programs. The amount of data stored in company data bases has increased exponentially over the years and become difficult to handle. This research area is the subject of much current interest, not only in academia but also in practice, as is shown by several magazines and blogs that are covering topics on how to get to know your customers, Big Data, information visualization, and data warehousing. In this Ph.D. thesis, the Self-Organizing Map and two extensions of it – the Weighted Self-Organizing Map (WSOM) and the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) – are used as data mining methods for extracting information from large amounts of customer data. The thesis focuses on how data mining methods can be used to model and analyze customer data in order to gain an overview of the customer base, as well as, for analyzing niche-markets. The thesis uses real world customer data to create models for customer profiling. Evaluation of the built models is performed by CRM experts from the retailing industry. The experts considered the information gained with help of the models to be valuable and useful for decision making and for making strategic planning for the future.

Metsäteollisuuden ympäristöstrategia hallinnon näkökulmasta: Metsäteollisuuden kehitysskenaariot vuoteen 2020

Suomen metsäteollisuus elää voimakasta uusiutumis- ja murrosvaihetta, joka ilmenee muutoksina yksittäisten tehtaiden ja tehdasintegraattien toiminnassa. Monia yksikköjä on poistunut tuotannosta ja tuotannon painotusta on muutettu. Toisaalta metsäteollisuus on suuntaamassa uusille aloille, jolloin tuotteina voivat olla esimerkiksi erilaiset biopolttoaineet, kemianteollisuuden raaka-aineet ja uuden sukupolven paperi- ja kartonkituotteet. Metsäteollisuuden muuttuminen ja laitosten monimutkaistuminen sekä jatkuvasti lisääntyvä tiedontarve asettavat yhä suurempia vaatimuksia sekä toiminnanharjoittajien ympäristövastaaville että viranomaisille. Hallinnon jatkuva muutos ja niukkenevat voimavarat voivat johtaa siihen, että käytännön lupa- ja valvontatyöhön jää yhä vähemmän aikaa. Kaakkois-Suomen ELY-keskuksen koordinoima hanke ”Metsäteollisuuden ympäristöstrategia vuoteen 2020 - hallinnon näkökulma” pyrkii vastaamaan edellä mainittuihin haasteisiin strategiatyön avulla. Hankkeen tarkoituksena oli tarkastella metsäteollisuuden ympäristönäkökohtia niistä lähtökohdista, joihin yritys voi vaikuttaa raaka-aineen tulosta tehtaalle ja tuotteen lähdöstä tehtaalta sekä tehtaan perustamisesta sulkemiseen ja jälkihoitoon asti. Tavoitteena oli määritellä toiminnoille toimiva ympäristöstrategia. Strategiassa pyrittiin löytämään yhteisymmärrys toiminnanharjoittajan ja viranomaisen kanssa mm. siitä, miten otetaan käyttöön parhaat käytännöt niin teollisuudessa kuin hallinnossakin, toimitaan uusien BAT-, IED- ja vesienhoitoperiaatteiden mukaisesti sekä edistetään kestävän kehityksen mukaisten tuotteiden markkinoille tuloa ja otetaan ennakointi tavaksi -lähtökohta käyttöön kaikessa toiminnassa. Hanketyössä esille nousseet haasteet ryhmiteltiin aihelueittain kolmeksi pääkohdaksi tärkeysjärjestyksessä: viranomaisen ja teollisuuden tiedonkulun ja tietämyksen parantaminen, lupa-, valvonta- ja hallintoprosessien parantaminen sekä uusien haasteiden kartoittaminen ja niihin reagointi. Haasteiden ratkaisukeinoiksi etsittiin käytännön toimenpiteitä sekä määriteltiin niille vastuutahot. Toimenpiteiksi esitettiin mm. viranomaisen ja teollisuuden yhteisiä koulutuspäiviä, asiantuntijapaneelin perustamista sekä lupamääräysten antamista myös tehtaan tai tuotantoyksikön sulkemisen tai muuttamisen varalle. Riittävien resurssien ja tietotaidon turvaaminen niin hallinnossa kuin teollisuudessa on ehdoton edellytys toimenpiteiden onnistumiselle

Altered mean platelet volume in patients with polymyositis and its association with disease severity

Polymyositis (PM) is an autoimmune disease characterized by chronic inflammation in skeletal muscle. Mean platelet volume (MPV), a marker in the assessment of systemic inflammation, is easily measured by automatic blood count equipment. However, to our knowledge, there are no data in the literature with respect to MPV levels in PM patients. Therefore, in this study we aimed to investigate MPV levels in patients with PM. This study included 92 newly diagnosed PM patients and 100 healthy individuals. MPV levels were found to be significantly lower compared with healthy controls (10.3±1.23 vs 11.5±0.74 fL, P<0.001). Interestingly, MPV was found to be positively correlated with manual muscle test (MMT) score and negatively correlated with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) in patients with PM (r=0.239, P=0.022; r=−0.268, P=0.010, respectively). In addition, MPV was significantly lower in active PM patients compared with inactive PM patients (9.9±1.39 vs 10.6±0.92 fL, P=0.010). MPV was independently associated with PM in multivariate regression analyses, when controlling for hemoglobin and ESR (OR=0.312, P=0.031, 95%CI=0.108 to 0.899). The ROC curve analysis for MPV in estimating PM patients resulted in an area under the curve of 0.800, with sensitivity of 75.0% and specificity of 67.4%. Our results suggest that MPV is inversely correlated with disease activity in patients with PM. MPV might be a useful tool for rapid assessment of disease severity in PM patients.

Production of yeast extracts from whey for food use: market and technical considerations

Whey is produced in large amounts by cheese industries. This by-product can be used for biomass production by yeast cultivation, resulting in commercially attractive products. The use of yeast extracts as source of flavour enhancer consists of an expansible market, encouraged by costumer's choice for natural additives. The development of a suitable and economically viable project for the generation of valued-added by-products, may allow the dairy industry to diversify their portfolio and increase their rentability.

E-commerce value chain in Russian markets – The role of market specific factors

International e-commerce is still rather new concept and therefore lacks comprehensive research. Different nature of markets and companies has challenged the traditional theories as well as redefined traditional operations. Prior research has mainly concentrated on studying the specific topics as barriers and the choice of international strategy. For this reason, there is a lack of research that comprehensively analyzes the operations of international e-commerce companies. The aim of this study was to increase knowledge on operations of Finnish e-commerce companies in Russia. In order to receive comprehensive knowledge of the operations, research analyzed the internationalization process, the effects of market specific factors to e-commerce and the implementation of various value chain activities of e-commerce. Research focused on examining how companies have seen the peculiarities of Russian markets and how to respond to them. The empiric part of the study was conducted as a qualitative research by interviewing five company representatives and three specialists of international e-commerce and Russian business.The results of this research revealed that having e-commerce in Russia is challenging and requires long term, strategy-based work. E-commerce is assumed to be inherently global business model, but in the case of Russia, numerous e-commerce activities require localization. The most crucial activity to localize is a content and language of content. Even though e-commerce market in Russia has a lot of peculiarities, operating via marketspace decreases the level of bureaucracy and market risk. Despite the challenges, developing e- commerce market in Russia offers a huge potential for companies, whose international strategy needs Russian operation to achieve company goals.

The transforming network of a foreign company operating in Mongolia. Case: A Finnish firm in Mongolia

In the globalising business environment ever fewer market areas remain unknown. Mongolia is yet only considered as an isolated strip between two power states. The purpose of this study is to put Mongolia on the map of academic business research. This is done by describing the transforming network of a foreign company operating in Mongolia. The objective of the study is approached through a case study, which presents the transformation of a Finnish company operating in Mongolia. This study aims at providing understanding on how the foreign case company observes the transformations of its network. The transformation within the case company is reflected to the transformations that occur in the Mongolian business environment. This study was conducted through a qualitative, intrinsic case study approach. The empirical data was gathered by using the method of network pictures. The network pictures were completed with the assistance of themed interviews. In order to be able to analyse the transformation within a network, three different time periods were observed: the past period around 2000, the present around 2014, and the estimated future around 2020. The data was collected from four executives positioned either in Finland, Russia or Mongolia. The respondents have a long experience within the case company, they hold managerial position, and therefore were able to offer valuable data for this study. The analytical framework used to analyse the collected data was built on the industrial network model, the ARA (actors-resources-activities)-model. The study shows that the changing business environment of Mongolia was utilised by the case company. In order to better meet the transforming customer wishes, the case company transformed from being a retailer to being a manufacturer. The case company was able to become a pioneer in the market. Thus, the case company has undergone similar kind of rapid transformation as the economy of Mongolia in entirety. This study shows that the general nature of the ARA-model makes it usable for new research contexts. The initial ARA-model offers a way to identify the dimensions of a network and a mean to understand these dimensions. The ARA-model can be applied to different contexts and to all time dimensions, past, present and future. The managerial recommendations offered in this study are directed towards the managers that plan to start operations in Mongolia. While this study is the first of its kind, it offers a good starting point for the future research on the change of Mongolian business networks. Valuable information could, for example, be obtained from a comparative study between the case company of this study and a multinational mining company operating in Mongolia.

Market anomalies and tactical asset allocation: Utilising market anomalies in multiple asset class portfolios with the Black−Litterman model

This thesis discusses the basic problem of the modern portfolio theory about how to optimise the perfect allocation for an investment portfolio. The theory provides a solution for an efficient portfolio, which minimises the risk of the portfolio with respect to the expected return. A central feature for all the portfolios on the efficient frontier is that the investor needs to provide the expected return for each asset. Market anomalies are persistent patterns seen in the financial markets, which cannot be explained with the current asset pricing theory. The goal of this thesis is to study whether these anomalies can be observed among different asset classes. Finally, if persistent patterns are found, it is investigated whether the anomalies hold valuable information for determining the expected returns used in the portfolio optimization Market anomalies and investment strategies based on them are studied with a rolling estimation window, where the return for the following period is always based on historical information. This is also crucial when rebalancing the portfolio. The anomalies investigated within this thesis are value, momentum, reversal, and idiosyncratic volatility. The research data includes price series of country level stock indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The modern portfolio theory and the views given by the anomalies are combined by utilising the Black-Litterman model. This makes it possible to optimise the portfolio so that investor’s views are taken into account. When constructing the portfolios, the goal is to maximise the Sharpe ratio. Significance of the results is studied by assessing if the strategy yields excess returns in a relation to those explained by the threefactormodel. The most outstanding finding is that anomaly based factors include valuable information to enhance efficient portfolio diversification. When the highest Sharpe ratios for each asset class are picked from the test factors and applied to the Black−Litterman model, the final portfolio results in superior riskreturn combination. The highest Sharpe ratios are provided by momentum strategy for stocks and long-term reversal for the rest of the asset classes. Additionally, a strategy based on the value effect was highly appealing, and it basically performs as well as the previously mentioned Sharpe strategy. When studying the anomalies, it is found, that 12-month momentum is the strongest effect, especially for stock indices. In addition, a high idiosyncratic volatility seems to be positively correlated with country indices on stocks.

Entry Modes of Finnish Food Enterprises in Chinese Market

China’s phenomenal economic growth and social development have brought along interesting opportunities for Finnish companies. One intriguing sector offering significant growth potential is the food industry. Due to the local food safety issues, rising disposable income level and changing consumer habits, the demand for foreign food is increasing. Finnish food companies have much to offer in terms of high quality, food safety in production, technological development and innovation. The purpose of this study is to examine how the Finnish food enterprises choose their entry modes in the Chinese market. This study increases understanding of entry modes the Finnish companies can use to successfully enter the unpredictable market of China in the food industry context. The study examines the industry specific challenges and the possible solutions to them. Qualitative research is selected as research methodology for this study because the intention is to understand the reasons behind the Finnish food enterprises’ entry mode choices in the Chinese market. The study is conducted as a qualitative case analysis. Six Finnish case companies operating in the food industry were interviewed. The results of the research indicate that most of the food industry companies use exporting as their entry mode to China; only one case company used an investment mode. This study illustrates the significance of the factors related to company’s background, mode concerns and Chinese market influences in the entry mode choice.

Metodologia de Estudo de Dieta Total no Estado de São Paulo para estimativa de ingestão dietética de elementos tóxicos e essenciais: a elaboração da Cesta de Mercado (Market Basket)

O objetivo do estudo foi elaborar a Cesta de Mercado para a realização de Estudos de Dieta Total (EDT) para avaliação de ingestão dietética de elementos tóxicos e essenciais no Estado de São Paulo. A fonte de dados foi a pesquisa de consumo nacional domiciliar atualizada, Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF) 2002-2003, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Para estimar o consumo de alimentos pela população estudada, os dados de aquisição alimentar utilizados foram pertinentes ao Estado de São Paulo. A Cesta de Mercado inicialmente foi formulada com os dados disponíveis das publicações do IBGE, e para detalhamento dos alimentos foram pesquisados os seus Micro dados, resultando numa Cesta de Mercado com 71 alimentos, que corresponde a 72% do peso dos alimentos da população do Estado de São Paulo, segundo a POF. Como abordagem sugerida pelos EDT já realizados em outros países, os alimentos foram agrupados em 30 compostos, que serão posteriormente analisados para determinar o seu conteúdo dos elementos essenciais e tóxicos.

Households’ willingness to engage in demand response in the Finnish retail electricity market: an empirical study

If electricity users adjusted their consumption patterns according to time-variable electricity prices or other signals about the state of the power system, generation and network assets could be used more efficiently, and matching intermittent renewable power generation with electricity demand would be facilitated. This kind of adjustment of electricity consumption, or demand response, may be based on consumers’ decisions to shift or reduce electricity use in response to time-variable electricity prices or on the remote control of consumers’ electric appliances. However, while demand response is suggested as a solution to many issues in power systems, actual experiences from demand response programs with residential customers are mainly limited to short pilots with a small number of voluntary participants, and information about what kinds of changes consumers are willing and able to make and what motivates these changes is scarce. This doctoral dissertation contributes to the knowledge about what kinds of factors impact on residential consumers’ willingness and ability to take part in demand response. Saving opportunities calculated with actual price data from the Finnish retail electricity market are compared with the occurred supplier switching to generate a first estimate about how large savings could trigger action also in the case of demand response. Residential consumers’ motives to participate in demand response are also studied by a web-based survey with 2103 responses. Further, experiences of households with electricity consumption monitoring systems are discussed to increase knowledge about consumers’ interest in getting more information on their electricity use and adjusting their behavior based on it. Impacts of information on willingness to participate in demand response programs are also approached by a survey for experts of their willingness to engage in demand response activities. Residential customers seem ready to allow remote control of electric appliances that does not require changes in their everyday routines. Based on residents’ own activity, the electricity consuming activities that are considered shiftable are very limited. In both cases, the savings in electricity costs required to allow remote control or to engage in demand response activities are relatively high. Nonmonetary incentives appeal to fewer households.