An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

Estudo da qualidade dos efluentes gerados em diferentes fases do cultivo do camarão-da-amazônia Macrobrachium amazonicum

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise do desempenho hidroenergético de sistemas de abastecimento de água do município de Marabá

Análise do desempenho hidroenergético de Sistemas de Abastecimento de Água do Município de Marabá/PA, gerenciados pela Unidade de Negócios Tocantins (UNITO), da Companhia de Saneamento do Pará – COSANPA. O estudo foi realizado em 3 fases, tendo informações do Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento (SNIS) e da COSANPA. Na fase 1 foi analisada a rotina operacional de abastecimento de água do sistema Nova Marabá - Cidade Nova (16.738 ligações) e do sistema Marabá Pioneira (2.093 ligações) no ano 2010, com ênfase nos volumes produzidos de água e no consumo e custo de energia elétrica; na Fase 2 foram determinados indicadores de desempenho hidroenergético; finalizando, na fase 3 é proposto procedimentos para a melhoria da gestão hidroenergética. Na pesquisa foi verificado que o volume total produzido de água de 15,8 milhões m³/ano requereu 8.817 MWh/ano, resultando em despesa de R$ 2 milhões/ano de energia elétrica, que foi o segundo maior item das despesas de exploração (32,2%) da COSANPA no município de Marabá. A despesa de energia elétrica por ligação foi de R$ 9,32/lig. ano e R$ 7,66/lig. ano nos sistemas da Nova Marabá – Cidade Nova e da Marabá Pioneira, respectivamente, com preço médio global do kWh consumido e despesa média de energia elétrica por metro cúbico de água produzido na Nova Marabá - Cidade Nova (0,23 R$/kWh e 0,14 R$ /m³) e da Marabá Pioneira (0,21 R$/kWh e 0,07 R$/m³), ocorrendo variação dos índices de intensidade energética (kWh/m³) nos SAA. Com o trabalho é proposto procedimentos para aumentar a eficiência do controle hidroenergético na operação dos sistemas, como setorização, macromedição, micromedição, automação, o que trará reflexos positivos na redução dos custos para o abastecimento de água no município de Marabá/PA.

Epidemiologia molecular aplicada ao monitoramento de estirpes de Staphylococcus aureus na produção de queijo Minas frescal

We studied the molecular epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus strains potentially toxigenic, isolated from the production process of Minas frescal cheese in a small dairy plant in the state of São Paulo. For this, samples were taken during the period from June 2008 to July 2009. Samples were collected from the surface of the receiving and storage tanks of raw milk, the surface of the balance tank of pasteurized milk, the water supply system, the pipes and equipments, the hands of the handler and from the packaged cheese, totaling 140 samples. The colonies isolated on Baird-Parker Agar confirmed as Gram positive and positive for catalase, coagulase and acetoin production, were submitted to extraction of bacterial DNA using the Invitek - Uniscience® kit. Confirmation of the isolated species and enterotoxins SEA, SEB, SEC, SED and TSST-1 toxin was carried out through the amplification of specific fragments of chromosomal DNA. Among the 74 strains of isolated coagulase-positive staphylococci, only 41 (55.4%) strains were confirmed as Staphylococcus aureus, of which 25 (61.0%) were positive to the presence of staphylococcal toxins. The most frequently identified enterotoxin was SEA. The toxigenic strains of Staphylococcus aureus were more frequently isolated from hands of the handler (16.0%), raw milk receiving tank (12.0%), pasteurized milk for cheese making (12.0%) and fresh white cheese ready for consumption (12.0%).

Nutritional balance and yield for green manure orange trees

Intercropping could efficiently prevent soil nutrient losses caused by extensive agriculture. The present study aimed to assess the effect of green manure on the nutritional status of orange trees cultivar 'Pera' (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck). The plants were grafted on 'Cravo' lime trees and were then planted in a 7x4m space. Four different treatments corresponding to the evaluated green manures were employed: jack bean (JB) (Canavalia ensiformis DC), lablab (LL) (Dolichos lablab L.), pigeon pea (PP) (Cajanus cajan L. Millsp), and Brachiaria (BQ) (Brachiaria brizantha Hochst ex A. Rich. Stapf) as control. The experimental design was in randomized blocks, in split-plot time, with six replicates, with four treatments (green manures) and two plants per evaluation. The nutritional status was assessed by using the DRIS method (Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System); the yield and the macro and micronutrient levels contained in green manures and in the control was also determined. The nutritional diagnosis indicated that, in the two years of experiment, plants treated with green manure showed better nutritional balance index compared to Brachiaria. This suggests that, over time, green manure can lead to better nutritional balance. Pigeon pea treatment showed the highest yields, compared to control, in the two evaluated crop cycles (2004/05 and 2005/06).

Fuzzy Index for Public Supply Water Quality

Human population growth and increased industrial activity in recent decades have contributed to a range of environmental problems, including the contamination of groundwater and surface water. In order to help in the management of these resources, water quality indices are used as tools to summarize multiple parameters and express them in the form of a single number. The ability to provide both an integrated assessment of changes in environmental variables, as well as performance tracking, has resulted in such indices being increasingly employed in surface water monitoring programs. The aim of this study was to develop an Index for Public Supply Water Quality (IPS) using a fuzzy inference methodology. Linguistic systems generally provide satisfactory tools for qualitative purposes, enabling the inclusion of descriptive variables with reduced loss of individual information. Validation of the technique was achieved by analysis of measurement data obtained for the Sorocaba River, provided by CETESB. The new procedure proved more rigorous, compared to classical IPS. It could be readily applied in the evaluation of other water bodies, or be adjusted to incorporate additional parameters also considered important for the assessment of water quality.

Rn-222, Ra-226 and hydrochemistry in the Bauru Aquifer System, Sao Jose do Rio Preto (SP), Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of potassium and sodium supply on drought-adaptive mechanisms in Eucalyptus grandis plantations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Development and characterization of biocompatible isotropic and anisotropic oil-in-water colloidal dispersions as a new delivery system for methyl dihydrojasmonate antitumor drug

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Energy and hydraulic efficiency in conventional water supply systems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caracterização e origem da composição química da incrustação e simulação de cenários de perda de energia em setor da rede de abastecimento de água da cidade de Rio Claro - SP

The purpose of this work was the inlay’s characterization from the water supply networks of Rio Claro-SP city; as well analyze the influence of network’s aging in the actual system. To do this, some samples of inlays were collected and made chemistry analysis and X-Ray Diffraction Spectrometry. The history of the source water quality was also analyzed, to make possible to known the origins of the inlays. To evaluate the performance of the network, some different scenarios have been simulated, varying the resistance coefficient of the water supply networks of Rio Claro-SP. The characterization results showed that there are basically oxide and hydroxide of iron (magnetite and goethite) and quartz in the inlays, which are materials of high hardness. The hydraulic simulations indicated that the simulated scenarios had a variation of ~2000% in terms of loss of energy

Feature extraction in pressure signals for leak detection in water networks

Techniques based on signal analysis for leak detection in water supply systems typically use long pressure and/or flow data series of variable length. This paper presents the feature extraction from pressure signals and their application to the identification of changes related to the onset of a leak. Example signals were acquired from an experimental laboratory circuit, and features were extracted from temporal domain and from transformed signals. Statistical analysis of features values and a classification method were applied. It was verified the feasibility of using feature vectors for distinguish data acquired in the absence or presence of a leak.

Performance measurement and indicators for water supply management: review and international cases

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Does water level affect benthic macro-invertebrates of a marginal lake in a tropical river-reservoir transition zone?

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Water quality and communities associated with macrophytes in a shallow water-supply reservoir on an aquaculture farm

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)