896 resultados para Law of Propagation of Uncertainty


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We discuss a very effective numerical method for simulating fibre-bundle models with equal load-sharing and with local load-sharing. Particular attention is paid to the case of the local load-sharing model, in which the critical load x(c) is defined as the average load per fibre that causes the final complete failure. It is shown that x(c) --> 0 when the size of the system N --> infinity. We also show analytically that the power law of the burst size distribution, D(Delta) alpha Delta(-xi), is approximately correct. The exponent xi in the local load-sharing case is not universal, since it depends on the strength distribution as well on as the size of the system.

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A simple, new method permitting the simultaneous determination and confirmation of trace residues of 24 different growth promoters and metabolites using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was developed and validated. The compounds were extracted from bovine tissue using acetonitrile; sodium sulphate was also added at this stage to aid with purification. The resulting mixture was then evaporated to approximately 1 ml and subsequently centrifuged at high speed and an aliquot injected onto the LC-MS/MS system. The calculated CC values ranged between 0.11 and 0.46 mu g kg-1; calculated CC were in the range 0.19-0.79 mu g kg-1. Accuracy, measurement of uncertainty, repeatability and linearity were also determined for each analyte. The analytical method was applied to a number of bovine tissue samples imported into Ireland from third countries. Levels of progesterone were found in a number of samples at concentrations ranging between 0.28 and 30.30 mu g kg-1. Levels of alpha- and beta-testosterone were also found in a number of samples at concentrations ranging between 0.22 and 8.63 mu g kg-1 and between 0.16 and 2.08 mu g kg-1 respectively.

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Self-assembled electrodeposited nanorod materials have been shown to offer an exciting landscape for a wide array of research ranging from nanophotonics through to biosening and magnetics. However, until now, the scope for site-specific preparation of the nanorods on wafers is limited to local area definition. Further there is little or no lateral control of nanorod height. In this work we present a scalable method for controlling the growth of the nanorods in the vertical direction as well as their lateral position. A focused ion beam (FIB) pre-patterns the Au cathode layer prior to the creation of the Anodized Aluminium Oxide (AAO) template on top. When the pre-patterning is of the same dimension to the pore spacing of the AAO template, lines of single nanorods are successfully grown. Further, for sub-200 nm wide features a relationship between the nanorod height and distance from non-patterned cathode can be seen to follow a quadratic growth rate obeying Faradays law of electrodeposition. This facilitates lateral control of nanorod height combined with localised growth of the nanorods.

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Prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) diagnosis and grading are affected by uncertainties which arise from the fact that almost all knowledge of PIN histopathology is expressed in concepts, descriptive linguistic terms, and words. A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was therefore used to reduce the problem of uncertainty in diagnostic clue assessment, while still considering the dependences between elements in the reasoning sequence. A shallow network was used with an open-tree topology, with eight first-level descendant nodes for the diagnostic clues (evidence nodes), each independently linked by a conditional probability matrix to a root node containing the diagnostic alternatives (decision node). One of the evidence nodes was based on the tissue architecture and the others were based on cell features. The system was designed to be interactive, in that the histopathologist entered evidence into the network in the form of likelihood ratios for outcomes at each evidence node. The efficiency of the network was tested on a series of 110 prostate specimens, subdivided as follows: 22 cases of non-neoplastic prostate or benign prostatic tissue (NP), 22 PINs of low grade (PINlow), 22 PINs of high grade (PINhigh), 22 prostatic adenocarcinomas with cribriform pattern (PACcri), and 22 prostatic adenocarcinomas with large acinar pattern (PAClgac). The results obtained in the benign and malignant categories showed that the belief for the diagnostic alternatives is very high, the values being in general more than 0.8 and often close to 1.0. When considering the PIN lesions, the network classified and graded most of the cases with high certainty. However, there were some cases which showed values less than 0.8 (13 cases out of 44), thus indicating that there are situations in which the feature changes are intermediate between contiguous categories or grades. Discrepancy between morphological grading and the BBN results was observed in four out of 44 PIN cases: one PINlow was classified as PINhigh and three PINhigh were classified as PINlow. In conclusion, the network can grade PlN lesions and differentiate them from other prostate lesions with certainty. In particular, it offers a descriptive classifier which is readily implemented and which allows the use of linguistic, fuzzy variables.

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PURPOSE: Scanning laser polarimetry (SLP) has been proposed as a useful diagnostic test for glaucoma. This study was conducted to evaluate the quality of reporting of published studies using the SLP for diagnosing glaucoma. METHODS: A validated Medline and hand search of English-language articles reporting on measures of diagnostic accuracy of the SLP for glaucoma was performed. Two reviewers independently selected and appraised the manuscripts. The Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy (STARD) checklist was used to evaluate the quality of each publication. RESULTS: A total of 47 papers were identified of which the first 10 (from 1997 to 2000) and the last 10 articles (from 2004 to 2005) were appraised. Interobserver rating agreement of STARD items was high (85.5% agreement, ?=0.796). The number of STARD items properly reported ranged from 3/25 to 19/25. Only a quarter of studies (5/20) explicitly reported more than half of the STARD items. Important aspects of the methodology were often missing such as participant sampling (reported in 40% of manuscripts), masking of the readers of the index test and reference standard (reported in 20% of manuscripts), and estimation of uncertainty (eg, 95% confidence intervals, reported in 25% of manuscripts). There was a slight increase in the number of STARD items reported with time. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of reporting of diagnostic accuracy tests for glaucoma with SLP is suboptimal. The STARD initiative may be a useful tool for appraising the strengths and weaknesses of diagnostic accuracy studies. © 2007 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

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The study of interrelationships between soil structure and its functional properties is complicated by the fact that the quantitative description of soil structure is challenging. Soil scientists have tackled this challenge by taking advantage of approaches such as fractal geometry, which describes soil architectural complexity through a scaling exponent (D) relating mass and numbers of particles/aggregates to particle/aggregate size. Typically, soil biologists use empirical indices such as mean weight diameters (MWD) and percent of water stable aggregates (WSA), or the entire size distribution, and they have successfully related these indices to key soil features such as C and N dynamics and biological promoters of soil structure. Here, we focused on D, WSA and MWD and we tested whether: D estimated by the exponent of the power law of number-size distributions is a good and consistent correlate of MWD and WSA; D carries information that differs from MWD and WSA; the fraction of variation in D that is uncorrelated with MWD and WSA is related to soil chemical and biological properties that are thought to establish interdependence with soil structure (e.g., organic C, N, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi). We analysed observational data from a broad scale field study and results from a greenhouse experiment where arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and collembola altered soil structure. We were able to develop empirical models that account for a highly significant and large portion of the correlation observed between WSA and MWD but we did not uncover the mechanisms that underlie this correlation. We conclude that most of the covariance between D and soil biotic (AMF, plant roots) and abiotic (C. N) properties can be accounted for by WSA and MWD. This result implies that the ecological effects of the fragmentation properties described by D and generally discussed under the framework of fractal models can be interpreted under the intuitive perspective of simpler indices and we suggest that the biotic components mostly impacted the largest size fractions, which dominate MWD, WSA and the scaling exponent ruling number-size distributions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The recent decision of the European Court of Human Rights in Ahmad v UK dangerously undermines the well-established case law of the Court on counter-terrorism and non-refoulement towards torture, inhuman and degrading treatment or punishment. Although ostensibly rejecting the ‘relativist’ approach to Article 3 ECHR adopted by the House of Lords in Wellington v Secretary of State for the Home Department, the Court appeared to accept that what is a breach of Article 3 in a domestic context may not be a breach in an extradition or expulsion context. This statement is difficult to reconcile with the jurisprudence constante of the Court in the last fifteen years, according to which Article 3 ECHR is an absolute right in all its applications, including non-refoulement, regardless of who the potential victim of torture, inhuman or degrading treatment is, what she may have done, or where the treatment at issue would occur.

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Since 2008, Ireland has experienced the most severe economic and labour market crisis since the foundation of the State. These economic and labour market changes have had a stark impact on the standard of living across the Irish population. The rapid deterioration in the labour market, the rising level of household indebtedness and stringent austerity measures to plug the public finance deficit have had a widespread impact yet there is debate about where the heaviest burden has fallen and where the economic stress has been felt most. The paper analyses data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions for the period 2004 to 2011. The aim of the paper is to develop and test a measure of economic stress, which will capture some of the aspects of the rapid change in economic fortunes on Irish households that are not picked up by income alone. This includes tapping into features of the recession such as debt problems, unsustainable housing costs, and other difficulties associated with managing on reduced household income in a period of uncertainty. In testing such a measure we examine trends over time from boom to bust in the Irish economy and consider how economic stress is distributed across different socio-economic groups. The paper explores the distribution and level of economic stress across income class groups, social classes and the life-course and tests the thesis of ‘middle class squeeze’.

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Despite previous attempts at codification of international law regarding international responses to natural and human-made disasters, there is currently no binding international legal framework to regulate the provision of humanitarian assistance outside armed conflicts. Nevertheless, since the International Law Commission (ILC) included the protection of persons in the event of disasters on its programme of work in 2006, it has provisionally adopted eleven draft articles that have the potential to create binding obligations on states and humanitarian actors in disaster settings. Draft articles adopted include the definition of ‘a disaster’, the relationship of the draft articles to the international humanitarian law of armed conflict, recognition of the inherent dignity of the human person, and the duty of international cooperation. However, the final form of the draft articles has not been agreed. The Codification Division of the UN Office of Legal Affairs has proposed a framework convention format, which has seen support in the ILC and the UN General Assembly Sixth Committee. The overall aim of this article is to provide an analysis of the potential forms of international regulation open to the ILC and states in the context of humanitarian responses to disasters. However to avoid enchanting the ILC draft articles with unwarranted power, any examination of form requires an understanding of the substantive subject matter of the planned international regulation. The article therefore provides an overview of the international legal regulation of humanitarian assistance following natural and human-made disasters, and the ILC’s work to date on the topic. It then examines two key issues that remain to be addressed by the ILC and representatives of states in the UN General Assembly Sixth Committee. Drawing on the UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, the development and implications of binding and non-binding international texts are examined, followed by an analysis of the suggested framework convention approach identified by the Special Rapporteur as a potential outcome of the ILC work.

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Although the international obligations and institutional frameworks for disaster response are not yet settled, as evidenced by the International Law Commission’s work on the protection of persons in the event of disasters and the on-going promotion of disaster laws by the Red Cross Movement; the diverse source and nature of such initiatives suggests that the international community is engaged in a process of norm creation, elaboration and interpretation reflecting a desire for legal clarity in humanitarian operations. Situated within the framework of transnational law, this paper argues that an acquis humanitaire, based on the principle of humanity, encapsulates the evolving body of law and practice specifically relating to the protection of persons in times of humanitarian crisis in both armed conflicts and natural or human-made disasters. Reflecting the non-traditional, non-statist, dynamic and normative basis of transnational legal process, as elaborated by Harold Koh, the constant flow of ideas and principles between the national, regional and international spheres provides an analytical framework for the on-going transnational dialogues on the social, political and legal internalization of humanitarian norms. Drawing on the internalization of humanitarian norms within the United Kingdom, this paper concludes that as the international community examines the codification of a universal legal framework for the protection of persons in the event of disasters it is necessary to understand the transnational process of interpretation and internalization of humanitarian norms, and how this may vary across different regions and countries.