The importance of exotic plantation forest for the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

Environmental certification schemes have stimulated increasing interest in biodiversity and its management within exotic plantation forests. These schemes expect management to be scientifically-based, even though little is known about how often, or which, native species use exotic plantation forests. Greater knowledge of the ecology of native species within exotic plantation forests is required to advise management and reduce risks to native species, particularly those that are rare, such as the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus). Long-tailed bats use exotic plantation forests throughout New Zealand but need protection from the impacts of forest management, and particularly clear-fell harvest, that is achievable only through a better understanding of their biology. The consequences of the current reduced re-planting, and the conversion of plantation forests into pasture resulting in smaller forested areas, should not be ignored because they may be associated with reductions in long-tailed bat populations. We review the current knowledge of long-tailed bats' use of exotic plantation forests, and report for the first time which exotic plantations long-tailed bats are known to use. We make recommendations for the design of monitoring programmes to detect long-tailed bats within plantation forests, and for research into the effects of forest management, especially logging, and comment on the likely impacts of reductions in forested areas on long-tailed bats.

Development of a log-quadratic model to describe microbial inactivation, illustrated by thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum

In the commercial food industry, demonstration of microbiological safety and thermal process equivalence often involves a mathematical framework that assumes log-linear inactivation kinetics and invokes concepts of decimal reduction time (DT), z values, and accumulated lethality. However, many microbes, particularly spores, exhibit inactivation kinetics that are not log linear. This has led to alternative modeling approaches, such as the biphasic and Weibull models, that relax strong log-linear assumptions. Using a statistical framework, we developed a novel log-quadratic model, which approximates the biphasic and Weibull models and provides additional physiological interpretability. As a statistical linear model, the log-quadratic model is relatively simple to fit and straightforwardly provides confidence intervals for its fitted values. It allows a DT-like value to be derived, even from data that exhibit obvious "tailing." We also showed how existing models of non-log-linear microbial inactivation, such as the Weibull model, can fit into a statistical linear model framework that dramatically simplifies their solution. We applied the log-quadratic model to thermal inactivation data for the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum and evaluated its merits compared with those of popular previously described approaches. The log-quadratic model was used as the basis of a secondary model that can capture the dependence of microbial inactivation kinetics on temperature. This model, in turn, was linked to models of spore inactivation of Sapru et al. and Rodriguez et al. that posit different physiological states for spores within a population. We believe that the log-quadratic model provides a useful framework in which to test vitalistic and mechanistic hypotheses of inactivation by thermal and other processes. Copyright © 2009, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Smart coordinated distribution system control to enable high level penetration of rooftop PVs

This thesis addresses voltage violation problem, the most critical issue associated with high level penetration of photovoltaic (PV) in electricity distribution network. A coordinated control algorithm using the reactive power from PV inverter and integrated battery energy storage has been developed and investigated in different network scenarios in the thesis. Probable variations associated with solar generation, end-user participation and network parameters are also considered. Furthermore, a unified data model and well-defined communication protocol to ensure the smooth coordination between all the components during the operation of the algorithm is described. Finally this thesis incorporated the uncertainties of solar generation using probabilistic load flow analysis.

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an R2 goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 h test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including causal analysis and ‘what-if’ analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

A communication model and partitioning algorithm for streaming applications for an embedded MPSoC

Energy efficient embedded computing enables new application scenarios in mobile devices like software-defined radio and video processing. The hierarchical multiprocessor considered in this work may contain dozens or hundreds of resource efficient VLIW CPUs. Programming this number of CPU cores is a complex task requiring compiler support. The stream programming paradigm provides beneficial properties that help to support automatic partitioning. This work describes a compiler for streaming applications targeting the self-build hierarchical CoreVA-MPSoC multiprocessor platform. The compiler is supported by a programming model that is tailored to fit the streaming programming paradigm. We present a novel simulated-annealing (SA) based partitioning algorithm, called Smart SA. The overall speedup of Smart SA is 12.84 for an MPSoC with 16 CPU cores compared to a single CPU implementation. Comparison with a state of the art partitioning algorithm shows an average performance improvement of 34.07%.

Analyzing busway station potential capacity under mixed stopping and non-stopping operation

Busway stations are the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses manoeuvring into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on busway capacity. This study uses microscopic simulation to treat the busway station operation and to analyse the relationship between station potential capacity where all buses stop, and Mixed Potential Capacity where there is a mixture of stopping and non-stopping buses. First, the micro simulation technique is used to analyze the All Stopping Buses (ASB) scenario and then statistical model is tuned and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics Subsequently, a mathematical model is developed for Mixed Stopping Buses (MSB) Potential Capacity by introducing different proportions of express (or non-stopping) buses. The proposed models for a busway station bus capacity provide a better understanding of operation and are useful to transit agencies in busway planning, design and operation.

Analysing busway station capacity under mixed stopping and non-stopping operation

Busway stations are the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses manoeuvring into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on busway capacity. This study uses microscopic simulation to treat the busway station operation and to analyse the relationship between station potential capacity where all buses stop, and Mixed Potential Capacity where there is a mixture of stopping and non-stopping buses. First, the micro simulation technique is used to analyze the All Stopping Buses (ASB) scenario and then statistical model is tuned and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics Subsequently, a mathematical model is developed for Mixed Stopping Buses (MSB) Potential Capacity by introducing different proportions of express (or non-stopping) buses. The proposed models for a busway station bus capacity provide a better understanding of operation and are useful to transit agencies in busway planning, design and operation.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to unsafe water and lack of sanitation and hygiene in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) by age group for South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology was used to estimate the disease burden attributable to an exposure by comparing the observed risk factor distribution with a theoretical lowest possible population distribution. A scenario-based approach was applied for estimating diarrhoeal disease burden from unsafe WSH. Six exposure scenarios were defined based on the type of water and sanitation infrastructure and environmental faecal-oral pathogen load. For ‘intestinal parasites’ and schistosomiasis, the burden was assumed to be 100% attributable to exposure to unsafe WSH. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Disease burden from diarrhoeal diseases, intestinal parasites and schistosomiasis, measured by deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results 13 434 deaths were attributable to unsafe WSH accounting for 2.6% (95% uncertainty interval 2.4 - 2.7%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. The burden was especially high in children under 5 years, accounting for 9.3% of total deaths in this age group and 7.4% of burden of disease. Overall, the burden due to unsafe WSH was equivalent to 2.6% (95% uncertainty interval 2.5 - 2.7%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, ranking this risk factor seventh for the country. Conclusions Unsafe WSH remains an important risk factor for disease in South Africa, especially in children under 5. High priority needs to be given to the provision of safe and sustainable sanitation and water facilities and to promoting safe hygiene behaviours, particularly among children.

BIM - Implications for government (Case Study No. 5 [2004-032-A + Case study no. 5])

BIM as a suite of technologies has been enabled by the significant improvements in IT infrastructure, the capabilities of computer hardware and software, the increasing adoption of BIM, and the development of Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) which facilitate the sharing of information between firms. The report highlights the advantages of BIM, particularly the increased utility and speed, better data quality and enhanced fault finding in all construction phases. Additionally BIM promotes enhanced collaborations and visualisation of data mainly in the design and construction phase. There are a number of barriers to the effective implementation of BIM. These include, somewhat paradoxically, a single detailed model (which precludes scenarios and development of detailed alternative designs); the need for three different interoperability standards for effective implementation; added work for the designer which needs to be recognised and remunerated; the size and complexity of BIM, which requires significant investment in human capital to enable the realisation of its full potential. There are also a number of challenges to implementing BIM. The report has identified these as a range of issues concerning: IP, liability, risks and contracts, and the authenticity of users. Additionally, implementing BIM requires investment in new technology, skills training and development of news ways of collaboration. Finally, there are likely to be Trade Practices concerns as requiring certain technology owned by relatively few firms may limit

Power quality improvements in low voltage distribution networks containing distributed energy resources

In this thesis various schemes using custom power devices for power quality improvement in low voltage distribution network are studied. Customer operated distributed generators makes a typical network non-radial and affect the power quality. A scheme considering different algorithm of DSTATCOM is proposed for power circulation and islanded operation of the system. To compensate reactive power overflow and facilitate unity power factor, a UPQC is introduced. Stochastic analysis is carried out for different scenarios to get a comprehensive idea about a real life distribution network. Combined operation of static compensator and voltage regulator is tested for the optimum quality and stability of the system.

Insulation coordination study for a 50 kV traction feeder station

The heavy haul rail network in Queensland Australia generally adopts a lightning impulse withstand voltage rating of 250 kV for the switchgear and autotransformers within its 50 kV ac traction feeder stations. The aging switchgear across a number of feeder stations in this network are undergoing upgrade and the rail network operator is considering the possibility of using 200 kV rating for the upgraded switchgear. This paper investigates the lightning over-voltages that could occur at the feeder stations under review. Fast front transient models of the feeder stations and the associated traction corridors are developed in PSCAD/EMTDC software. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the likely over-voltages under various scenarios and the results are presented. Finally, the required lightning impulse withstand voltage rating for the switchgear is determined based on the simulation results.

Exploring variation in measurement as a foundation for statistical thinking in the elementary school

This study was based on the premise that variation is the foundation of statistics and statistical investigations. The study followed the development of fourth-grade students' understanding of variation through participation in a sequence of two lessons based on measurement. In the first lesson all students measured the arm span of one student, revealing pathways students follow in developing understanding of variation and linear measurement (related to research question 1). In the second lesson each student's arm span was measured once, introducing a different aspect of variation for students to observe and contrast. From this second lesson, students' development of the ability to compare their representations for the two scenarios and explain differences in terms of variation was explored (research question 2). Students' documentation, in both workbook and software formats, enabled us to monitor their engagement and identify their increasing appreciation of the need to observe, represent, and contrast the variation in the data. Following the lessons, a written student assessment was used for judging retention of understanding of variation developed through the lessons and the degree of transfer of understanding to a different scenario (research question 3).

Inferring phylogenies of evolving sequences without multiple sequence alignment

Alignment-free methods, in which shared properties of sub-sequences (e.g. identity or match length) are extracted and used to compute a distance matrix, have recently been explored for phylogenetic inference. However, the scalability and robustness of these methods to key evolutionary processes remain to be investigated. Here, using simulated sequence sets of various sizes in both nucleotides and amino acids, we systematically assess the accuracy of phylogenetic inference using an alignment-free approach, based on D2 statistics, under different evolutionary scenarios. We find that compared to a multiple sequence alignment approach, D2 methods are more robust against among-site rate heterogeneity, compositional biases, genetic rearrangements and insertions/deletions, but are more sensitive to recent sequence divergence and sequence truncation. Across diverse empirical datasets, the alignment-free methods perform well for sequences sharing low divergence, at greater computation speed. Our findings provide strong evidence for the scalability and the potential use of alignment-free methods in large-scale phylogenomics.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.